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Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

In a BA league the question is easy. Harper's OBPs are freaking nuts. .388 Career, .393 on his last year "down year". Has peaked at... .460? 

Like fun fact, Arenado has NEVER had a .388 OBP in his entire career. So he's never had a single season where he got on base as much as Harper has, on average, his entire career. 

Harper's also going to steal bases.

 

It's a really hard argument to make I think either side. The numbers I think clearly justify taking Harper if it's a 5x5 OBP. He's just going to beat him in OBP/SB, and I don't know that he falls short anywhere else. More safety in Arenado, but I also think i have to take Harper in an OBP. 

 

Good to see I’m not entirely insane for thinking this way, counts even more when it comes from Taobball, haha. What you said pretty much summarizes my entire thought process here. If we are looking at OBP in a redraft 5x5, I think arenado/Harper are your 2 best bets at 4th overall. Say the runs/RBIs/HRs are a push...... well, Harper wins on OBP/steals and it has potential to not be close for those 2. Clear winner ends up being Bryce. Injuries are more of a concern, but I’m not sure it’s enough to warrant dropping him down the rankings. 

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On 2/28/2019 at 11:05 PM, Stickfig13 said:

 

Win now? Have you seen their rotation? Win in a couple years maybe.

 

Nola/Arrieta/Pivetta/Eflin/Velasquez isn't a wow rotation, but it's not a pathetic one either and actually contains a lot of promise from top to bottom. Obviously convincing Keuchel to come in on a short term deal would bolster it, but even if not there should be plenty of run support and the defense as a whole is definitely better.

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28 minutes ago, Motown_Magic said:

Good to see I’m not entirely insane for thinking this way, counts even more when it comes from Taobball, haha. What you said pretty much summarizes my entire thought process here. If we are looking at OBP in a redraft 5x5, I think arenado/Harper are your 2 best bets at 4th overall. Say the runs/RBIs/HRs are a push...... well, Harper wins on OBP/steals and it has potential to not be close for those 2. Clear winner ends up being Bryce. Injuries are more of a concern, but I’m not sure it’s enough to warrant dropping him down the rankings. 

How about JD Martinez 

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I think you’ve been around long enough to know you don’t just get to drop crap like this without getting called on it. Literally no one thinks he’s better than Trout. We get it, you’re upset about Harper for some reason. But try using stats, not straw man arguments. It adds nothing to the conversation. 

Common sense prevails. These guys play a kids game and their salaries keep going up. If you don't see anything wrong with that, I don't know what to say. Stats? Anyone can look up stats. Harper is a great player and I don't hate him. I just think it's ridiculous how his ADP will go (most likely), just because of his record contract.

 

No 'strawman', only common sense.  :) 

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12 minutes ago, lavaman said:

Common sense prevails. These guys play a kids game and their salaries keep going up. If you don't see anything wrong with that, I don't know what to say. Stats? Anyone can look up stats. Harper is a great player and I don't hate him. I just think it's ridiculous how his ADP will go (most likely), just because of his record contract.

 

No 'strawman', only common sense.  :) 

The straw man was “people think he’s better than Trout.” Who thinks that? Got a link? 

 

As for salaries going up, so is revenue. You’d prefer the billionaire owners just hang onto the money and not pay the players their worth?

Edited by Backdoor Slider
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5 hours ago, lavaman said:

Owners will be disappointed when he doesn't live up to full expectations. ADP does not equal productions. Great player, but he's not even the best OF'er in the game, and people think he's better than Trout  lol

I hear people use this trout comparison fairly often, but does anyone actually say this? Maybe after his MVP season years ago, but you certainly don't actually hear people say he's better than Trout today, you only hear people say that people say he's better than trout.  

 

 

 

Edit- Oops! Too late. Backdoor slider already on it.

Edited by Bigfische

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10 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

The straw man was “people think he’s better than Trout.” Who thinks that? Got a link? 

 

As for salaries going up, so is revenue. You’d prefer the billionaire owners just hang onto the money and not pay the players their worth?

LOL You really think the players are 'worth' what they're making?? Tell me you're smarter than that.

The thing is, it's gotten wayyy out of control. Guess what- we all contribute to it by going to the games and paying the outrageous prices.

I'm not advocating the Owners not pay the players. They're all living high on the hog anyways. It is what it is.

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4 minutes ago, lavaman said:

LOL You really think the players are 'worth' what they're making?? Tell me you're smarter than that.

The thing is, it's gotten wayyy out of control. Guess what- we all contribute to it by going to the games and paying the outrageous prices.

I'm not advocating the Owners not pay the players. They're all living high on the hog anyways. It is what it is.

So no proof that anyone says Bryce is better than Trout. So yeah, straw man. So let’s move on.

100% they’re worth what they’re making. It’s simple economics. They generate revenue. They bring people to stadiums to spend $250 as a family. They help create jobs for all the workers at the stadium, including guys slinging hot dogs and those cleaning up. They provide jobs/money for parking attendants around the stadium. They make people turn on the TV, which generates ad revenue. I mean, it’s a billion dollar industry and they’re the ones we pay to watch. 

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[Fellas, it's time to move on from the "are athletes overpaid" argument and focus on Harper's fantasy outlook.  When doing so, please stick to attacking arguments actually being made.]

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Does anyone know if some of the projections (Steamer, ZIPS, etc.) change now based on lineup/park, and if they have been updated? Will be interested in what kind of bump he gets. 

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3 hours ago, The 7th Beatles said:

 

Philly fans are most crazed in sports... after what Lebron did picking the golden sunny city and the Phillies once upon a time spent like the Red Sox and Yankees during the 5 division title run. It was starving for a star to put his faith into the city and be identifiable for fans.

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX
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On 3/2/2019 at 10:53 AM, tingyangs6 said:

A couple years ago he was the best in the game so there’s a possibility he can be a top fantasy player. 

Are you willing to spend a 1st or 2nd round draft pick on that possibility??

He could produce those kinds of numbers, he's a great player. All I'm saying is I wouldn't bet on it.

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I think a part of the deal that has been somewhat overlooked is Harper saying he wants to lead the charge in recruiting guys to the area.  He seems to be somewhat close with a growing number of young stars (Hoskins, Bryant, Realmuto, Trout, Gallo etc).  Only time will tell if that's just talk, but if the FO really thinks he could help lure a few big free agents or re-sign a few young guys long-term, that has pretty significant value.  Especially for a big-market team who financially can throw around as much money as anyone.

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If he is willing to play second fiddle to Trout that tells me the kid wants to win. We all know Trout would be the darling hometown hero maybe taking the pressure off Bryce. 

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3 hours ago, Hatfieldodger said:

If he is willing to play second fiddle to Trout that tells me the kid wants to win. We all know Trout would be the darling hometown hero maybe taking the pressure off Bryce. 

 

the new Bash brothers.

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On 3/4/2019 at 12:11 PM, lavaman said:

Are you willing to spend a 1st or 2nd round draft pick on that possibility??

Absolutely.

Any league that allows Harper to get out of the second round probably doesn't have the sharpest owners.

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2 hours ago, cs3 said:

Absolutely.

Any league that allows Harper to get out of the second round probably doesn't have the sharpest owners.

 

True. And if 2018 is his worst-case scenerio, I can deal with that.

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its nice to see that the 2 years where he hit around 250 he did avg 17 sb. maybe thats random and we cant count on that to happen again if he hits 250 but seems like he trying to do something to help out even when hes not having that MVP type season..

Edited by colepenhagen

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On 3/6/2019 at 6:26 AM, colepenhagen said:

its nice to see that the 2 years where he hit around 250 he did avg 17 sb. maybe thats random and we cant count on that to happen again if he hits 250 but seems like he trying to do something to help out even when hes not having that MVP type season..

I dont think he does it to appease his fantasy owners somehow....If he's hitting better then he'll have more chances to run as he's on base more. Those past SB numbers were just flukey. That said I don't expect him to run a lot under Kapler, I'd be happy with 10SBs as an owner. 

That park is a bandbox so expecting huge power numbers though.

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1 hour ago, swfcdan said:

I dont think he does it to appease his fantasy owners somehow....If he's hitting better then he'll have more chances to run as he's on base more. Those past SB numbers were just flukey. That said I don't expect him to run a lot under Kapler, I'd be happy with 10SBs as an owner. 

That park is a bandbox so expecting huge power numbers though.

ha im talking about helping out his team. affecting the game in other ways when hes not hitting as well

but yea double digit bags would be a plus

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