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Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook

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On 4/4/2019 at 9:36 AM, mjb03003 said:

I've seen this sort of torrid April from Harper before:

April 2017: .391/.509/.772 with 32 Runs, 9 HR, 26 RBI

April 2016: .286/.406/.714 with 16 runs, 9 HR, 24 RBI

April 2013: .344/.430/.720 with 18 runs, 9 HR, 18 RBI

 

It's the tantalizing possibility that Harper puts it together for an entire season (which he has really only done once, in 2015 when he was National League MVP) that has me drooling. 

Just for reference, his 2015 line:

.330/.460/.649 with 118 runs, 42 HR, 99 RBI

 

He seems genuinely happy/comfortable in Philly. I believe the change of scenery and the certainty of his future could unlock the best from Harper. Giddy up!

 

Okay so this didn't age well. He started April hot but has since cooled off considerably. He's still drawing walks at a good rate and scoring runs, but he's striking out a ton and the XBH have all but disappeared. 

Hopefully the upcoming 4 game series @ Coors Field will get him going.     

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26 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Okay so this didn't age well. He started April hot but has since cooled off considerably. He's still drawing walks at a good rate and scoring runs, but he's striking out a ton and the XBH have all but disappeared. 

Hopefully the upcoming 4 game series @ Coors Field will get him going.     

 

Does this mean he’s still Bryce Harper? The guy who has been doing this for years? 

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Between Harper and Machado, I wonder if their massive contracts are becoming detrimental to their psyches.  I won't include Trout because he's on another plane from these guys, and he consistently produces when he's in the lineup.   

 

Thought experiment:  Would you rather make $300 million and fade into mediocrity, or make $30 million and have a legit Hall of Fame career?  

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unfair question. the Hofamer would love the 300 mill and the 300 mill guy would love the HOF. they both want both. Philly has a lot of issues that were not cured by harper signing. Still Harper improved the ballclub even if not on the "savior" level. Arrietta calling out Harper publically already has got to be stopped ASAP by the Phillie management. when u sign a guy for 13 years u better make sure u want him around for 13 years. Heck in 3 weeks Harper has already worn out his welcome in certain circles. Winning cures all but this starting pitching does not look playoff material. The relief corps do have promise but the roles need to be settled soon. Maybe Kapler just isn't the man for this job?

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15 minutes ago, tm30 said:

Between Harper and Machado, I wonder if their massive contracts are becoming detrimental to their psyches.  I won't include Trout because he's on another plane from these guys, and he consistently produces when he's in the lineup.   

 

Thought experiment:  Would you rather make $300 million and fade into mediocrity, or make $30 million and have a legit Hall of Fame career?  

This is who Harper is every year. I don’t know why anyone would think this has anything to do with the contract.

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1 minute ago, Backdoor Slider said:

This is who Harper is every year. I don’t know why anyone would think this has anything to do with the contract.

yeah he's a streaky superstar not quite super elite level.  Final numbers will look good but he always goes over drafted given his actual production.  A guy like George Springer is outperforming him and was drafted 3-4 rounds later.

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Harper has to be the most frustrating 1st roundish player to own every year besides that monster 2015 season. Super streaky.

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4 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

Harper has to be the most frustrating 1st roundish player to own every year besides that monster 2015 season. Super streaky.

I wish he'd be like Trout just consistent.  Never goes through 3-4 week long slumps.  Even 2017 Mookie wasn't this bad.  Harper can kill you for weeks at a time but you can't bench for fear of missing that 2 hr 5 rbi game.

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Just now, JetsAwesome said:

I wish he'd be like Trout just consistent.  Never goes through 3-4 week long slumps.  Even 2017 Mookie wasn't this bad.  Harper can kill you for weeks at a time but you can't bench for fear of missing that 2 hr 5 rbi game.

100%. Last year he went through a stretch towards the end of the season where he was literally one of the worst hitters in baseball. I think I benched him for most of the playoffs because he was so bad.

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Am i missing something? Guy has an OPS over .900 and started out on fire. Not sure what expectations of some were but hes not off to a bad start at all. 

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1 hour ago, Letitbe793 said:

Am i missing something? Guy has an OPS over .900 and started out on fire. Not sure what expectations of some were but hes not off to a bad start at all. 

Exactly. He still gets on base 40% of the time and has an XBH roughly every other game. It’s getting to the point where people are underrating him.

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1 hour ago, Letitbe793 said:

Am i missing something? Guy has an OPS over .900 and started out on fire. Not sure what expectations of some were but hes not off to a bad start at all. 

 

14 minutes ago, Dislimb said:

Exactly. He still gets on base 40% of the time and has an XBH roughly every other game. It’s getting to the point where people are underrating him.

 

I'm not exactly complaining...but to be fair he had a 3 game stretch from March 30 to April 2 where he had 3 HR and 2 doubles. In 19 games since, he has 2 HR and 4 doubles. 

He had 4 multi-hit games in his first 7 games of the season and hit .417 over that stretch. In 16 games since, he has 2 multi-hit games and is hitting .200. 

He walked 10 times in the first 8 games of the season (against 10 Ks), including 3 games with 2 or more walks. In 15 games since, he has 8 walks (against 21 Ks) and hasn't walked more than once in a game.

He started out on fire, and that fire start is the only thing propping up his season long numbers.  He's been really bad for the past 2.5 weeks. In roto maybe you don't care, but in h2h it stinks to have his production concentrated in the first week of the season. 

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2 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

 

I'm not exactly complaining...but to be fair he had a 3 game stretch from March 30 to April 2 where he had 3 HR and 2 doubles. In 19 games since, he has 2 HR and 4 doubles. 

He had 4 multi-hit games in his first 7 games of the season and hit .417 over that stretch. In 16 games since, he has 2 multi-hit games and is hitting .200. 

He walked 10 times in the first 8 games of the season (against 10 Ks), including 3 games with 2 or more walks. In 15 games since, he has 8 walks (against 21 Ks) and hasn't walked more than once in a game.

He started out on fire, and that fire start is the only thing propping up his season long numbers.  He's been really bad for the past 2.5 weeks. In roto maybe you don't care, but in h2h it stinks to have his production concentrated in the first week of the season. 

I exclusively play roto. Can’t stand the h2h format in baseball.

I also loathe batting average in general, although it is a necessary evil in fantasy.

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11 minutes ago, Dislimb said:

I exclusively play roto. Can’t stand the h2h format in baseball.

I also loathe batting average in general, although it is a necessary evil in fantasy.

 

Understood, and I don't disagree with your preferences.

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1 hour ago, Letitbe793 said:

Am i missing something? Guy has an OPS over .900 and started out on fire. Not sure what expectations of some were but hes not off to a bad start at all. 

 

45 minutes ago, Dislimb said:

Exactly. He still gets on base 40% of the time and has an XBH roughly every other game. It’s getting to the point where people are underrating him.

I am a Bryce fan. That said, last 3 years:

Bryce- .265/282/84/265/36

G.Springer- .269/339/88/247/21

 

Is Bryce worth more in OBP leagues? Yeah. But in standard 5 x 5, which the vast majority still play, Bryce Harper is a glorified George Springer. 

Springer doesn’t have the upside of that MVP season, so there’s still some hope that it returns. But Bryce definitely seems to be settling in as a “better in real life than fantasy” player.

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23 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

 

I'm not exactly complaining...but to be fair he had a 3 game stretch from March 30 to April 2 where he had 3 HR and 2 doubles. In 19 games since, he has 2 HR and 4 doubles. 

He had 4 multi-hit games in his first 7 games of the season and hit .417 over that stretch. In 16 games since, he has 2 multi-hit games and is hitting .200. 

He walked 10 times in the first 8 games of the season (against 10 Ks), including 3 games with 2 or more walks. In 15 games since, he has 8 walks (against 21 Ks) and hasn't walked more than once in a game.

He started out on fire, and that fire start is the only thing propping up his season long numbers.  He's been really bad for the past 2.5 weeks. In roto maybe you don't care, but in h2h it stinks to have his production concentrated in the first week of the season. 

His contact rates are worrisome so far. Career lows across the board in zone and outside contact and his swinging strike rate and GB rates are significantly higher than they have ever been. He's seen a steady diet of less fastballs and more sliders the last two seasons - he's seeing nearly 10% less FB's this year than he was 2014-2017. And he's not making guys pay on fastballs this year, which is normally his bread and butter pitch. I had him before he was called up in a keeper and finally cut bait last year with him and a pick to get Mookie. He will tease you with his immense ceiling and then ends up being incredibly streaky most of the year. Definitely a frustrating player to roster.

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His O-Contact% is almost 13% down from last year. His Z-Contact% is down 4%. All of that backs up that SwStr% of 16.8%. Real late on the FB during this current slump.

Also just heard his launch angle is way lower than usual. 

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Just now, High&Inside said:

His O-Contact% is almost 13% down from last year. His Z-Contact% is down 4%. All of that backs up that SwStr% of 16.8%. Real late on the FB during this current slump.

Also just heard his launch angle is way lower than usual. 

His GB rate is up quite a bit so that makes sense as well with the LA.

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On 4/17/2019 at 8:53 AM, Stickfig13 said:

Does this mean he’s still Bryce Harper? The guy who has been doing this for years? 

 

TerrificWeeKingsnake-small.gif

Just busting balls.  Bryce is and has been streaky AF.

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9 minutes ago, KrunK said:

His GB rate is up quite a bit so that makes sense as well with the LA.

Just checked it's 8.5 compared to his usual of 13.5 to 14.

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2 hours ago, Letitbe793 said:

Am i missing something? Guy has an OPS over .900 and started out on fire. Not sure what expectations of some were but hes not off to a bad start at all. 

Nobody said he sucks or he's off to a bad start. Some of us just said he's very streaky and can be very frustrating to own. The numbers will be there in the end no doubt.

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How come when he struggles he has to be the worst hitter in baseball? He did this at the end of last season. He's been atrocious since like the second week. Lowest average of all regular hitters on the team. It would be nice if he could at least be borderline serviceable when he's not red hot.

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2 hours ago, bradwatson said:

How come when he struggles he has to be the worst hitter in baseball? He did this at the end of last season. He's been atrocious since like the second week. Lowest average of all regular hitters on the team. It would be nice if he could at least be borderline serviceable when he's not red hot.

Because if he wasn't he'd be the best hitter in baseball. The struggles are built into the price. There aren't many hitters who can surpass Trout, but Harper is one of them. That is, if he can actually put together a full productive season. He can't though, so you'll get your top 20 value with many ups and downs. 

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