AnonymousRob

Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook

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If he played stellar defense the slumps wouldn’t seem so bad, Give me Arenado any day!

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5 hours ago, bradwatson said:

How come when he struggles he has to be the worst hitter in baseball? He did this at the end of last season. He's been atrocious since like the second week. Lowest average of all regular hitters on the team. It would be nice if he could at least be borderline serviceable when he's not red hot.

 

His approach is really exploitable. Just take a look at his heat maps... he can't do anything about the outside pitch and it's been that way for a while now. He bails out early and tries to pull everything which also has led to an increase in pull rate right into the shift which hampers the BABIP/BA as well. I haven't really looked at him as a top-10 bat for a while, at least in standard 5x5 leagues. Without a change in approach I think he projects out as a .250 hitter with 30-35 home runs, a handful of steals and 90-100 RBI's. Valuable? Sure, but not exactly elite territory for a 5x5 bat.

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52 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

His approach is really exploitable. Just take a look at his heat maps... he can't do anything about the outside pitch and it's been that way for a while now. He bails out early and tries to pull everything which also has led to an increase in pull rate right into the shift which hampers the BABIP/BA as well. I haven't really looked at him as a top-10 bat for a while, at least in standard 5x5 leagues. Without a change in approach I think he projects out as a .250 hitter with 30-35 home runs, a handful of steals and 90-100 RBI's. Valuable? Sure, but not exactly elite territory for a 5x5 bat.

He definitely bails on anything outside. In his incredible 2015 season he was taking those pitches the other way and pulling anything middle in. We might not ever see that player again unfortunately.

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On 4/24/2019 at 3:18 PM, Dislimb said:

Exactly. He still gets on base 40% of the time and has an XBH roughly every other game. It’s getting to the point where people are underrating him.

Phillies arent paying $330 for a dude to walk a lot. 

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8 hours ago, itslarry said:

Phillies arent paying $330 for a dude to walk a lot. 

They’re paying him to not make outs... and he’s pretty damn good at that.

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I understand the excitement he created in Philly: merchandise sales, more people at the ballpark etc. in the long run that’s money should have been spent on a great player. Harper is not a great player.  

 

 

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Wow....I’m shocked honestly. I seriously thought he’d destroy this season in Philly....can’t believe it 

Edited by MrPositive

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1 hour ago, MrPositive said:

Wow....I’m shocked honestly. I seriously thought he’d destroy this season in Philly....can’t believe it 

Coming from Mr. Positive, this is not a good sign for Harper this year.

I thought the same too. I also thought he would have a good year based on the every other year thing. It is still early, but I am not encouraged. 

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On 5/4/2019 at 4:35 AM, bradwatson said:

He definitely bails on anything outside. In his incredible 2015 season he was taking those pitches the other way and pulling anything middle in. We might not ever see that player again unfortunately.

Any particular reason why? He's only 26 right

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Overrated

Edited by Ry34No

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I buy into him every year in an OBP league (which changes everything). Unfortunately, I feel like I overpaid. A high-.300s OBP is great but at the cost it took to get him he should be closer to Trout in that department. 

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4 hours ago, FritzLn said:

Any particular reason why? He's only 26 right

Until he figures out how to take the ball away and beat the shift again he'll never be his 2015 self again. That year he was pretty much an impossible out (by baseball standards) because there was no way to pitch to him to beat him. Now you can throw anything to the outside half and he'll just roll it over into the shift because he's trying to pull everything. He's a really bad hitter right now. Upside is still really high, but damn he's a mess at the plate at the moment.

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With a long term contract (13) years he has no incentive to work on his game. With a no trade contract I think Harper is the kind of guy who would settle for sitting on the bench for 13 years and get paid. Focus is the word and he lacks it right now, heck all year. Philly wanted him for 13 years so all they can do is hope he earns some of that contract. The owner was so right when he said he was spending (stupid money!)

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16 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Lol I understand some of the criticisms of Bryce and his approach, but to pretend he’s not completely driven to be great and that he’s the “kind of guy who would settle for sitting on the bench for 13 years and get paid” is laughably ignorant. Be better.

^^^ This. Long time Phillies fan that didn't really want Harper (didn't want Machado even more) but since he has joined the Phillies he has majorly impressed me with his willingness to go "all in" for the team. He appears to be a hardworking guy that is a good teammate. He is pretty much what I expected to get - 250 avg, 30-35 Hr's and 100-110 RBI's. Just because he signed a mega deal doesn't make him a better player. Hopefully time(he's still young) and a willingness to make adjustments will but the contract won't. He is what we thought he was EXCEPT for me - I actually like the guy and I never did before. 

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8 minutes ago, Crusaderfan said:

^^^ This. Long time Phillies fan that didn't really want Harper (didn't want Machado even more) but since he has joined the Phillies he has majorly impressed me with his willingness to go "all in" for the team. He appears to be a hardworking guy that is a good teammate. He is pretty much what I expected to get - 250 avg, 30-35 Hr's and 100-110 RBI's. Just because he signed a mega deal doesn't make him a better player. Hopefully time(he's still young) and a willingness to make adjustments will but the contract won't. He is what we thought he was EXCEPT for me - I actually like the guy and I never did before. 

 

Yeah one thing I don’t think anyone can question about Harper is his drive.  Harper can certainly adjust and has tons of talent.  It’s still very early in the contract so no need to panic.  However, he started to trend in the wrong direction last year and it’s getting worse in the early parts of this year.  He’s striking out more than ever and when he does make contact, it’s softer than it was in the past.  

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3 hours ago, MrPositive said:

Let's not all forget this article too (https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/01/17/bryce-harper-philadelphia-phillies-free-agency)....he's in possibly one of the top 3 hitters parks in baseball in Philly. Dude just can't hit when it's cold, and it's been cold in April, same as last year. Dude needs to wear a fur coat to the plate. 

 

ahhhh, NO.   April has historically been Harper's best month.  I call him Mr April

These April stats are his best for any month:

.298 BA

47 HRs

132 RBI

132 Runs

39 2Bs

145 BBs

28 IBBs

185 Hits

.428 OBP

.597 Slug

1.025 OPS

.300 ISO

 

 

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He’s on a cold streak. Happens to the best of them. He’ll heat up again. Go cold again. Just like every hitter in baseball. Relax. 

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54 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

ahhhh, NO.   April has historically been Harper's best month.  I call him Mr April

These April stats are his best for any month:

.298 BA

47 HRs

132 RBI

132 Runs

39 2Bs

145 BBs

28 IBBs

185 Hits

.428 OBP

.597 Slug

1.025 OPS

.300 ISO

 

 

you beat me to it. harper is the kind of dude i like to draft early and sell high as hell after the first month knowing he's going to cool off haha. 

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11 hours ago, Ry34No said:

Overrated

I think so too. Ultra popular but he’s not as good as guys like Arenado, Betts, Yelich or Trout. Maybe not even as good as Lindor or Baez. 

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5 hours ago, MrPositive said:

Let's not all forget this article too (https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/01/17/bryce-harper-philadelphia-phillies-free-agency)....he's in possibly one of the top 3 hitters parks in baseball in Philly. Dude just can't hit when it's cold, and it's been cold in April, same as last year. Dude needs to wear a fur coat to the plate. 

 

A fine point, at least until facts get in the way

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-04-29-april-record-breaking-weather-united-states

 

 

Quote

 

Washington was experiencing its second-warmest April on record through April 28. Philadelphia and Baltimore were on track for their third-warmest April on record.

Interestingly, both Washington and Philadelphia just recorded their warmest April two years ago in 2017.

 

 

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Harper is not making enough contact in the zone. That is his problem. Traditionally, it has been his strength.

 

Either Harper is pressing, playing through injury or forgotten how to hit (no, he hasnt).

 

Buy everywhere!

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