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Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Harper is not making enough contact in the zone. That is his problem. Traditionally, it has been his strength.

 

Either Harper is pressing, playing through injury or forgotten how to hit (no, he hasnt).

 

Buy everywhere!

Unlikely you can get him cheap. I sold high even with the struggles. I believe he’s still going to go 30/100 and have a great OBP but I’ve come to realize he’s more name than game.

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4 minutes ago, einstein2u said:

hitting .226.   that is just nuts.

I know. Can’t see him hitting for a .300 average this year. Early days though, he could heat up and go on a tear. 

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2 minutes ago, Call me Red said:

I know. Can’t see him hitting for a .300 average this year. Early days though, he could heat up and go on a tear. 

The problem is his at bats and approach look horrible.  He loves chasing those sliders away.  He seems to only be able to hit a dead red fast ball right now!

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4 minutes ago, JetsAwesome said:

The problem is his at bats and approach look horrible.  He loves chasing those sliders away.  He seems to only be able to hit a dead red fast ball right now!

His inability to hit FB 95mph or greater is the actual more troubling part. His avg against that pitch is around .250 I believe.

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What a joke of a blurb today after yesterday's game...Wow. Roto writers but really hate this guy or have him on their teams

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he will sell tickets and merchandise. other than that he is Adam Dunn lite. even his defense. he is what he is. strikeouts a lot. not a good average along with a good amount of HRs. if you didn't pay much attention to baseball you would figure this guy is Bonds. the media celebrates this guy like he is Babe Ruth. he just doesn't care. he doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as Mike Trout.

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I think Harper is motivated by ego/pride, so he won't ever go into full on "Operation Shutdown" mode, IMHO.  

The surprise is not what's happening with Bryce right now.  The surprise is why anyone ever considered this guy a generational talent.  I had a pretty big write-up in the offseason as to how Machado was, strangely enough, fairly undervalued as compared to Harper.  If you switched the two guys' "appearances" and marketability, I suspect that Bryce would have struggled to get a 200 million contract let alone that monster 13 year deal.  

He has had one elite season (and a bunch of good ones, he's not some bum), has rapidly devolving defense (and he's going to an NL team that can't rest him or camouflage), and has gigantic holes in his plate approach and swing. 

So overrated.   

Edited by Overlord

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2nd highest paid player in history and has the worst average on his team. God he sucks right now.

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2 hours ago, Overlord said:

I think Harper is motivated by ego/pride, so he won't ever go into full on "Operation Shutdown" mode, IMHO.  

The surprise is not what's happening with Bryce right now.  The surprise is why anyone ever considered this guy a generational talent.  I had a pretty big write-up in the offseason as to how Machado was, strangely enough, fairly undervalued as compared to Harper.  If you switched the two guys' "appearances" and marketability, I suspect that Bryce would have struggled to get a 200 million contract let alone that monster 13 year deal.  

He has had one elite season (and a bunch of good ones, he's not some bum), has rapidly devolving defense (and he's going to an NL team that can't rest him or camouflage), and has gigantic holes in his plate approach and swing. 

So overrated.   

He is a generational talent, but just can't put that talent together over a full season. He missed 50 games in 2017 and was still a top 15 player. We greatness once in 2015...will we ever see it again?

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Struck out 3 times by Freddy Peralta and Junior Guerra. Both guys lit up by all other Phillies last night. This has gone to level embarrassment now at .222. Definitely thinking he is more Todd’s Frazier than Mike Trout now. Had a couple great years then forgot how to hit a baseball.

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At least Philadelphia gets 12 more years of this. I guess it’s karma for throwing snowballs at Santa back in the day.

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I'm an owner, and I've been disappointed. But his 0.376 OBP is 16th in the NL and his 17.9% walk rate is 1st the NL. Coupled with his 30% k-rate (7th in NL) and abysmal average, he's clearly a polarizing player to own. But not all is negative as this thread makes it out to be. Trade or hold, but better days are ahead. [...]

Edited by tonycpsu

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7 minutes ago, Krambone said:

At least Philadelphia gets 12 more years of this. I guess it’s karma for throwing snowballs at Santa back in the day.

 

massive contract and you don't get your statistical value out of it his first season. I wonder if Pro Sports Teams get bailouts.

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11 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

I'm an owner, and I've been disappointed. But his 0.376 OBP is 16th in the NL and his 17.9% walk rate is 1st the NL. Coupled with his 30% k-rate (7th in NL) and abysmal average, he's clearly a polarizing player to own. But not all is negative as this thread makes it out to be. Trade or hold, but better days are ahead. Could be worse...we could be Jose Ramirez owners.  

I’d rather be a Jram owner to be honest.  Even if he hits <.230 he’ll swipe 35-35+ bags.  In non OBP leagues Harper has to hit in same way shape or form to give owners an ROI.  Jram owners at least have an escape with wheels for a down hitting season.  With the shift and Harper’s inability to adjust to the way teams pitch him away for going on 1000+ at bats I wouldn’t want him in any non OBP league going forward.  His walks do help immensely in OBP.  That’s the only format he should be heavily invested in going forward. 

Edited by Cmilne23

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4 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

I’d rather be a Jram owner to be honest.  Even if he hits <.230 he’ll swipe 35-35+ bags.  In non OBP leagues Harper has to hit in same way shape or form to give owners an ROI.  Jram owners at least have an escape with wheels for a down hitting season.  With the shift and Harper’s inability to adjust to the way teams pitch him away for going on 1000+ at bats I wouldn’t want him in any non OBP league going forward.  His walks do help immensely in OBP.  That’s the only format he should be heavily invested in going forward. 

I'm in an OPS league so maybe I'm looking at this with rose-tinted goggles. But at least Harper's been good in the past year and a half. Jram's counting stats are already capped hitting in a putrid lineup, and there really isn't any indication he'll improve on his ability to hit moving forward. Harper's still on pace for 100/28/100, which even with slight regression is probably worth more than 35+ bags and nothing else (i.e. poor man's Billy Hamilton?).

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Just now, Jyeatbvg said:

I'm in an OPS league so maybe I'm looking at this with rose-tinted goggles. But at least Harper's been good in the past year and a half. Jram's counting stats are already capped hitting in a putrid lineup, and there really isn't any indication he'll improve on his ability to hit moving forward. Harper's still on pace for 100/28/100, which even with slight regression is probably worth more than 35+ bags and nothing else (i.e. poor man's Billy Hamilton?).

Yeah OBP I’m easily taking Harper ROS.  At some point he’ll get out of it.  The average isn’t as important to us in OBP vs non.  But there’s a real chance he’s just a .220-.240 hitter in Major League Baseball unless he makes massive adjustments.  Which is crazy to think about because of how much talent he has.  His heat charts are just nuts to see.  Everything away ice cold.  I saw one pitcher give him 7 straight fastball changeups away the other day in exact same spot on edge.  The book is out.  Can he learn to cover the edge?

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The kid is still just 26.  If he really has forgotten how to hit, then he's doing it before a lot of major leaguers learn to hit in the first time, which means he can learn again.  Calling the contract a bust based on the fact that he's had a bad first six weeks in a new uniform is extremely premature.  He's the most talented prime-aged player to be available in the free agent market in a while, and the way free agency is going, probably the most talented there will be for a while.  You go get that when you have a chance and worry about $/WAR a few years into the deal, not after six weeks.

In redraft fantasy terms, he's very format-dependent as others have noted, so he'll struggle to get back to profitability in AVG leagues.  In dynasty I'm very much buying, particularly in OBP formats.

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42 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

The kid is still just 26.  If he really has forgotten how to hit, then he's doing it before a lot of major leaguers learn to hit in the first time, which means he can learn again.  Calling the contract a bust based on the fact that he's had a bad first six weeks in a new uniform is extremely premature.  He's the most talented prime-aged player to be available in the free agent market in a while, and the way free agency is going, probably the most talented there will be for a while.  You go get that when you have a chance and worry about $/WAR a few years into the deal, not after six weeks.

In redraft fantasy terms, he's very format-dependent as others have noted, so he'll struggle to get back to profitability in AVG leagues.  In dynasty I'm very much buying, particularly in OBP formats.

Constant excuses for him re: age, potential. He’s solid in many areas, but an elite player he is not. 

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45 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

The kid is still just 26.  If he really has forgotten how to hit, then he's doing it before a lot of major leaguers learn to hit in the first time, which means he can learn again.  Calling the contract a bust based on the fact that he's had a bad first six weeks in a new uniform is extremely premature.  He's the most talented prime-aged player to be available in the free agent market in a while, and the way free agency is going, probably the most talented there will be for a while.  You go get that when you have a chance and worry about $/WAR a few years into the deal, not after six weeks.

In redraft fantasy terms, he's very format-dependent as others have noted, so he'll struggle to get back to profitability in AVG leagues.  In dynasty I'm very much buying, particularly in OBP formats.

People are not judging the contract as a bust based on 6 weeks. It has been a growing trend with him for a couple of years now

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11 minutes ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

People are not judging the contract as a bust based on 6 weeks. It has been a growing trend with him for a couple of years now

Exactly. I've owned this guy since 2014 so I have been through the ups and the downs. He was marvelous in 2015, he was great in 2017 until he got hurt. He has been very good to downright terrible in between. To pay a guy what the Phillies paid him you should be getting a guaranteed top 5 player, not someone who can look as bad as he does over stretches. I have never seen Trout, Arenado, or Betts go through the types of stretches Bryce has since they broke out.

And yes his OBP and walk rate are nice, but the Phillies are not paying him $330,000,000 to draw walks. Just like fantasy owners - they signed him to drive in runs and hit the ball over the fence, neither of which he has been doing since the first 2 weeks of the season.

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15 minutes ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

People are not judging the contract as a bust based on 6 weeks. It has been a growing trend with him for a couple of years now

 

Am I to interpret "a couple of years" as being not just 2018 and a small fraction of 2019, but including 2017?  If so, care to explain what about his 2017 season (other than being hurt and missing ~40 games) during which he hit .319/.413/.595 with a 155 wRC+ was problematic.

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Am I to interpret "a couple of years" as being not just 2018 and a small fraction of 2019, but including 2017?  If so, care to explain what about his 2017 season (other than being hurt and missing ~40 games) during which he hit .319/.413/.595 with a 155 wRC+ was problematic.

His overall 2018 numbers look good, but he was droppable for the final month of 2018. I benched him the majority of the playoffs because he was so bad.

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