AnonymousRob

Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook

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Just now, tonycpsu said:

 

Am I to interpret "a couple of years" as being not just 2018 and a small fraction of 2019, but including 2017?  If so, care to explain what about his 2017 season (other than being hurt and missing ~40 games) during which he hit .319/.413/.595 with a 155 wRC+ was problematic.

If this continues this year it will now be 3 out of the last 4 years. The book is out on him and he has been pitched differently and it seems to be working. 

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Here's hoping that he hits the bench tomorrow because of his "knee" from hitting the wall. He needs a mental day off. 

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I hope pitchers keep throwing that meat over the plate. He’s going to punish them soon enough. Anyone see his knee injury? Is he going to be okay? I saw he stayed in the game. A day off or two would be nice, but I don’t want to see him on the IL

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21 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Geesh those were dead middle of plate.  He looks lost up there.  Loss of bat speed?  Poor anticipation? Confused by his struggles this year somewhat!

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What jumps off the page to me looking at his peripherals is the decreasing contact on pitches in the zone over the years.

Zone Contact% / Contact %

2015 (MVP): 84.4% / 75.4%

2016: 87.4% / 79.2%

2017: 85.1% / 74.8%

2018: 79.6% / 71.1%

2019: 77.3% / 66.7%

 

League average for zone contact % is about 85% in each of these seasons.  League avg for contact % is ~77%.  His swinging strike rate is up to 15% so far this year, which is 20th worst in MLB to date and in the company of Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Jorge Soler, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo.

 

Harper is obviously not a player that needs to make a ton of contact to produce at an elite level - he had a below avg contact rate in his 2015 MVP campaign.  But he is trending downward as you can see above ever since 2016 and a contact rate on pitches in the zone that is almost 8 points below average is a pretty glaring red flag.  That's not to say it can't be fixed, but I do wonder what is behind that.  Have pitchers found a hole or is this mechanical?

 

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4 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 That's not to say it can't be fixed, but I do wonder what is behind that.  Have pitchers found a hole or is this mechanical?

 

The at bat in the 6th inning is all you need to see to understand his trouble this year. He can't hit the FB, especially if it is 95mph or greater. I don't know if he's not seeing the ball, or simply can't catch up to it due to timing being off. But SP can see that right now you can challenge him with nothing but FB and get him to swing and miss.

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46 minutes ago, High&Inside said:

The at bat in the 6th inning is all you need to see to understand his trouble this year. He can't hit the FB, especially if it is 95mph or greater. I don't know if he's not seeing the ball, or simply can't catch up to it due to timing being off. But SP can see that right now you can challenge him with nothing but FB and get him to swing and miss.

Looks like a timing issue - There's some loss of reaction time maybe which is odd since he's still supposedly in his prime.  But he looks late , maybe he's not anticipating pitches quickly enough .  I mean there's no deception on most of those.  Those pitches were straight fastballs

Edited by JetsAwesome

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1 hour ago, High&Inside said:

The at bat in the 6th inning is all you need to see to understand his trouble this year. He can't hit the FB, especially if it is 95mph or greater. I don't know if he's not seeing the ball, or simply can't catch up to it due to timing being off. But SP can see that right now you can challenge him with nothing but FB and get him to swing and miss.

 

I saw you posted that he is hitting .250 on pitches 95mph+.  Curious where you found that, but also, that doesn't seem like an issue to me...  .250 on 95+ seems at least above average.

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I prefer slow start/hot finish then the other way around, he’s just doing what I had planned all along (that’s what I tell myself about this bum anyways) 

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34 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I saw you posted that he is hitting .250 on pitches 95mph+.  Curious where you found that, but also, that doesn't seem like an issue to me...  .250 on 95+ seems at least above average.

So I heard it on the radio. But here's an article from last year where the same struggle occurred. It's more troubling that the same struggle is occurring 2 years in a row. The timing of the article was late May as well.

"A couple of pitchers have commented to me that they believe for the first time that you can blow a fastball by Harper. That might be just brave talk, but it is true that Harper is hitting just .257 against fastballs this year. That's nuts for one of the great fastball hitters in the game. He hit .363 on fastballs last year and .365 in his NL MVP Award-winning season of 2015"

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/bryce-harper-s-numbers-tell-two-stories-c278797410.html

 

Edited by High&Inside
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only 12 and 3/4 years left on the contract. The phills might have to start selling assets to cover it.

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57 minutes ago, Krambone said:

only 12 and 3/4 years left on the contract. The phills might have to start selling assets to cover it.

image.png.d1d222fa9624c888468b64086faa2785.png

image.png.7fae39688e4c7867dcdd54c1c25d5d0a.png

I think they'll be okay.

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Lol, okay thanks. I was indicating Bryce is like buying light bulbs for 1000.00 each

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Starting to get some interesting offers from people including Harper.  Could be a nice buy low candidate in a few weeks if he keeps this up.

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I'm still not going to panic until hitting weather... sometimes even the 2007-2011 teams would get off to slow offensive starts (this team collectively isn't even off to one of those) but once the bank starts heating up it becomes a launching pad. I'm also learning my lesson from last year when I moved on from Matt Carpenter too early and he got off to a way worse start.

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX

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1 hour ago, Krambone said:

Lol, okay thanks. I was indicating Bryce is like buying light bulbs for 1000.00 each

Can light bulbs sell jerseys and put butts in the seats?

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20 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Can light bulbs sell jerseys and put butts in the seats?

About as much as Pat Burrell did.  Philly will turn on him quickly if he doesn't get it together.  

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He's currently tied with Gallo for the most strikeouts (57) in baseball. He's on pace for 225 strikeouts, which would set a new record. I doubt this will happen, but it's highly concerning.

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He's the most overrated player in baseball.  You'd think teams would learn not to sign guys to these monster, paid till your 40, lifetime contracts.  The Phillies won't go broke paying the .220 hitting Harper $27m per for the next 12 1/2 years, but  they certainly won't like it.

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Bryce did hit a warning track shot, maybe he’s heating up. And as far as putting fans in seats he’s more likely to turn fans off and make them want to stay home and do yard work if he keeps this up. 

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