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Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Did he?

Stats with Washington:
417G: 1814PA: 394 hits, 282R, 273RBI, 38SB, 87HR, 21.2%K v 16.9%BB, .238ISO, .267/.391/.505 with an .897OPS --> 30.6 WAR

I'd say that's pretty damn good. Postseason stats: 19G, 89PA, 12R, 10RBI, 4SB, 5HR, .211/.315/.487 is not good, but Trout's post-season is even worse.

From a fantasy perspective, absolutely he has - particularly in non-OPS leagues. Someone just has to read every Bryce Harper outlook thread to realize this.

If we're counting WAR (not relevant in fantasy since it considers defensive metrics) he's pretty good, but still disappointing given the hype he came into the league with.  

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Did he?

Stats with Washington:
417G: 1814PA: 394 hits, 282R, 273RBI, 38SB, 87HR, 21.2%K v 16.9%BB, .238ISO, .267/.391/.505 with an .897OPS --> 30.6 WAR

I'd say that's pretty damn good. Postseason stats: 19G, 89PA, 12R, 10RBI, 4SB, 5HR, .211/.315/.487 is not good, but Trout's post-season is even worse.

87hrs??? He's got 204 in his career and 20 this year. 

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This guy used to get compared to Trout LMAO. You can't drop him, but he has been extremely droppable this year. So many out of nowhere guys have outperformed him.

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2 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

From a fantasy perspective, absolutely he has - particularly in non-OPS leagues. Someone just has to read every Bryce Harper outlook thread to realize this.

If we're counting WAR (not relevant in fantasy since it considers defensive metrics) he's pretty good, but still disappointing given the hype he came into the league with.  

The problem is that the hype was actualized in 2015 and for a the majority of the season in 2017. But he's had horrible years in between, and now back to back. 

There's glaring flaws when it comes to adjusting his approach at the plate when it comes to specific scenarios. He's always swinging as hard as possible. The right coaching staff should be able to work on that with him. Though I don't think he'll ever replicate 2015. But I do believe he's better than what he's shown the last 2 years.

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2 minutes ago, High&Inside said:

The problem is that the hype was actualized in 2015 and for a the majority of the season in 2017. But he's had horrible years in between, and now back to back. 

There's glaring flaws when it comes to adjusting his approach at the plate when it comes to specific scenarios. He's always swinging as hard as possible. The right coaching staff should be able to work on that with him. Though I don't think he'll ever replicate 2015. But I do believe he's better than what he's shown the last 2 years.

Using the coaching staff as an excuse seems like a cop out when guys like Rendon, Soto, Murphy, Zimmerman, etc. have flourished in WAS. Philly is still too early to judge. Are people forgetting the hype he came into the league with was "potential GOAT" and "best prospect we've seen in decades" and "generational talent" hype, as opposed to "he'll be an all star" hype? I'm shocked people are arguing that he's been above average and thus he hasn't disappointed.

Btw this isn't targeted at you or your post, just the "Harper hasn't disappointed crowd" in general. 

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2 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Using the coaching staff as an excuse seems like a cop out when guys like Rendon, Soto, Murphy, Zimmerman, etc. have flourished in WAS. Philly is still too early to judge. Are people forgetting the hype he came into the league with was "potential GOAT" and "best prospect we've seen in decades" and "generational talent" hype, as opposed to "he'll be an all star" hype? I'm shocked people are arguing that he's been above average and thus he hasn't disappointed.

Btw this isn't targeted at you or your post, just the "Harper hasn't disappointed crowd" in general. 

He's absolutely been a disappointment. But using the hype storm that existed prior to him coming into the league as the measuring point is unfair. Tons and tons of hyped prospects have failed to deliver. 

He's a disappointment because the raw skill is there, and despite that he can't deliver consistency in outcome. He's a disappointment when you compare him to his better seasons. And personally as a Phillies fan he's a disappointment in what he's brought to the table so far.

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1 hour ago, High&Inside said:

He's absolutely been a disappointment. But using the hype storm that existed prior to him coming into the league as the measuring point is unfair. Tons and tons of hyped prospects have failed to deliver. 

He's a disappointment because the raw skill is there, and despite that he can't deliver consistency in outcome. He's a disappointment when you compare him to his better seasons. And personally as a Phillies fan he's a disappointment in what he's brought to the table so far.

How else to measure disappointment against though? Hype is literally what people compare results against, whether it's fair to Harper or not. 

Lebron, Messi, Crosby, Tiger are all examples of athletes who came into the highest levels with tremendous hype and did not disappoint. Unfortunately for Harper he'll always be in that same class of hype.

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In real life - Harper is not a victim of hype. He deserves every ounce of hate he gets. He DEMANDED the highest salary ever to be paid (at the time) and drug out the process longer than anyone ever besides those losers Kimbrel and Kuechel, who are both extremely overpaid as well. I understand that the market dictates price, but when you demand obscene amounts of money you are expected to deliver extreme results - he hasn't come close to that. On top of that he seems like a total dooshbag.

In fantasy - everything is about value. Harper simply doesn't deliver the value expected to come close to justifying his ADP, except for 2015. I don't even think this is debatable anymore. All there really is to discuss about him is what his value truly is - 5-6th rounder? Sure his ceiling might still be a first rounder, but there are plenty of guys like that.

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I'm staying clear of him next year. He'll probably be a second rounder. Good luck to future owners!

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3 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

How else to measure disappointment against though? Hype is literally what people compare results against, whether it's fair to Harper or not. 

Lebron, Messi, Crosby, Tiger are all examples of athletes who came into the highest levels with tremendous hype and did not disappoint. Unfortunately for Harper he'll always be in that same class of hype.

 

Firstly, as comically as it sounds, some people think Lebron hasn't lived up to the hype, but that's another topic. There's a first round pick in baseball every year, all of them have a lot of hype, some more than others, many of them disappoint.  Was Harper a disappointing first/second round fantasy pick this year and other years? No doubt. But Bryce Harper is a multiple time All-Star and former MVP.  To think he hasn't lived up to the hype is just wrong in my opinion. I think you take Mike Trout's career out of baseball, and Harper is looked at a lot better, even with the hype.

Listing 4 of the very best players of all time in their respective sports doesn't make Harper a disappointment to me, that's setting the bar at such a level that you're going to be disappointed 9.5/10 times if that's the expectation, perhaps higher. 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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I think with homers up and Bryce's steals down, he'll def move down in drafts next year, but I could see him being great value if he falls too far.I wouldn't take him before round in redraft I dont think.

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3 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

How else to measure disappointment against though? Hype is literally what people compare results against, whether it's fair to Harper or not. 

Lebron, Messi, Crosby, Tiger are all examples of athletes who came into the highest levels with tremendous hype and did not disappoint. Unfortunately for Harper he'll always be in that same class of hype.

 

I would include Andrew Luck in the same boat as Harper.

Harper is basically a high floor guy at this point which is fine but I think its safe to say we wont see 2017 Harper again let alone the 2015 version.

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6 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Harper is basically a high floor guy at this point which is fine but I think its safe to say we wont see 2017 Harper again let alone the 2015 version.

 

2015 Harper had a better offensive season than any Trout year, for some perspective.  I don't think he will replicate that, it's one of the best offensive seasons in the past decade, perhaps the best one. I do think we see a big bounceback next year if he's healthy. 

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32 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Firstly, as comically as it sounds, some people think Lebron hasn't lived up to the hype, but that's another topic. There's a first round pick in baseball every year, all of them have a lot of hype, some more than others, many of them disappoint.  Was Harper a disappointing first/second round fantasy pick this year and other years? No doubt. But Bryce Harper is a multiple time All-Star and former MVP.  To think he hasn't lived up to the hype is just wrong in my opinion. I think you take Mike Trout's career out of baseball, and Harper is looked at a lot better, even with the hype.

Listing 4 of the very best players of all time in their respective sports doesn't make Harper a disappointment to me, that's setting the bar at such a level that you're going to be disappointed 9.5/10 times if that's the expectation, perhaps higher. 

 

I included Harper with those guys because his hype matched those guys. And hype is what breeds disappointment - which was what the initial discussion was about. The argument isn't Harper < Lebron, therefore he's disappointing. I was just pointing out other athletes who had similar levels of hype and lived up to those lofty expectations. Unfortunately for Harper he was considered the "next GOAT, top 5 floor guy" coming into the league and he hasn't even come close - even though he's shown glimpses. Comparing other first round picks, or any prospect, is ridiculous because none matched the level of hype coming into the league as Harper..only ones that comes close are Strasburg and Vlad. Bleacher Report literally published an article titled "Bryce Harper and the 15 Most-Hyped MLB Prospects of All Time."

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Bryce is having an average Bryce season. If you overpaid for it, learn from the mistake and don't do it again. His range is 40-80 fantasy-wise, probably worse in real life. So yeah, he is overrated to oblivion. You can claim his ceiling is higher because of that one outlier season, but I don't really see people making that same claim about other players who have one year twice as good as seven others surrounding it. Hype, and lack of it, affect people's minds more than they'll ever admit. GMs, too. Otherwise a 4-5 WAR player wouldn't have signed the mega-deal Harper did.

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10 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

I included Harper with those guys because his hype matched those guys. And hype is what breeds disappointment - which was what the initial discussion was about. The argument isn't Harper < Lebron, therefore he's disappointing. I was just pointing out other athletes who had similar levels of hype and lived up to those lofty expectations. Unfortunately for Harper he was considered the "next GOAT, top 5 floor guy" coming into the league and he hasn't even come close - even though he's shown glimpses. Comparing other first round picks, or any prospect, is ridiculous because none matched the level of hype coming into the league as Harper..only ones that comes close are Strasburg and Vlad. Bleacher Report literally published an article titled "Bryce Harper and the 15 Most-Hyped MLB Prospects of All Time."

 

Well, blame whoever hyped him as the GOAT. Don't see why other people's misevaluations are on Bryce, a  very good- great player.  I don't see why I would set the bar higher for something someone said or set the bar lower for someone, because nobody was talking about them. People hype players harder than they should because it attracts clicks and viewers. Declaring anyone the next GOAT in baseball before they debut sounds stupid.

 

  If two players finish their careers close to  identical, I don't really care that one was hyped and one wasn't, they were the same to me.  It's different in fantasy sure when you're paying a price on a player, but ultimately you determine that price, nobody is forcing you to draft Bryce or not. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

Well, blame whoever hyped him as the GOAT. Don't see why other people's misevaluations are on Bryce, a  very good- great player. 

Agree 100%. But as poster above said, hype affects our perceptions and leads to disappointment. And quite frankly, Bryce's "otherworldly" talent led to the hype in the first place, so it's all just related. It's unfair to Harper but it's also the reason he was paid the amount he was, and the reason he's still drafted as a 1st/2nd rounder in most leagues. If he had normal pedigree as opposed to GOAT-level expectations he'd be a consensus 4-5th rounder without question.

Re: Lebron - hate him or love him, dude has definitely lived up to the hype! It's crazy when people try to find little flaws in his game or career to undermine his accomplishments. He's top 3 ever IMO.

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Starting to really heat up. Just hit an absolute moonshot of a grand slam for the walkoff win, off a LHP (Derek Holland) who is holding lefty batters to a.184 BAA no less. 

 

Quietly up to 25 HR, 87 RBI, and 7 SB on the season. 

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11 hours ago, The 7th Beatles said:

 

 

It’s a beaut Clark.

 

hopefully, for both the Phillies IRL and fantasy owners this is the start of a heater and he just goes on a massive tear.  So happy they brought Charlie back.

87941E09-F1EB-4870-8684-2175AC33D4E0.jpeg

Edited by Tyler Durden
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He'll never have good home to 1st speed on a HR but ran a gaudy 11.3 1st to home there 😂

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