AnonymousRob

Shohei Ohtani 2019 Outlook

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He's going to be recovering from TJ, so we're not going to get any pitching stats from him. We are, however, going to get an awesome hitter. Last year he hit 285 with a 361 obp. In only 377 plate appearances, he gave us 22 homers and 10 stolen bases. 

 

What to expect in 2019? It's fair to question the playing time. He should play everyday based on his stats. They've got Calhoun, Trout, and Upton in the outfield (note to future self, googling 'Angels outfield' brings up movie listings and not their depth charts). Ohtani might get some playing time there, but those three should play virtually every game.

 

DH? It would make a lot of sense to leave Ohtani at DH full time, but they've got Pujols. Albert started 70 games at 1st last year - his highest total since 2015. He's going to clog the DH spot a lot. They also signed Justin Bour. What might make the most sense is to simply release Pujols. But that's not going to happen. Do the Angels hurt their playoff chances by giving Ohtani fewer at bats than his production warrants? Do they get creative to keep Ohtani in the lineup? 

 

What will 2019's production even be? Steamer is projecting him to get 569 PA's. I'm not sure where those will come from, but he's being projected to put up 30 homers, 12 steals, and a 273 average. If he gets the playing time, he should be a stud hitter, even if he just has DH eligibility. 

 

What do you expect from him this year, both in playing time and production?

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playing time looks rough based on that lineup you posted, too many guys to fill in for days off etc. I can see him getting a day off every week. I guess we shall see.

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1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

What might make the most sense is to simply release Pujols. But that's not going to happen.

 

I wouldn't be so sure about this.  They're going to give him a chance to show that he's not a 100% sunk cost, but if he's looking like an 80-ish wRC+ player who's potentially ruining their chance to contend in the short 2-year window remaining where they have the best player in baseball, it becomes a "damned if they do, damned if they don't" scenario really quick.  Releasing him is embarrassing, but they can at least make the case that they're doing it for baseball reasons and not face-saving reasons.  It's not their job to look out for his legacy.

 

We'll see how Ohtani's recovery goes, but Roster Resource says he's "doubtful" for opening day.  Once he's healthy enough for regular PAs, I think the team is going to want to put the best players out there.  If Pujols isn't producing and the team is winning a lot of games, I think releasing him is a possibility.  It complicates the 10-year "personal services" gimmick in his contract, but what's another $10 million down the drain compared to paying $100 mil for below-replacement production?

 

If Ohtani is healthy enough for regular reps, I do not see Pujols (or Bour) as obstacles.  That's a huge "if", though.

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4 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I wouldn't be so sure about this.  They're going to give him a chance to show that he's not a 100% sunk cost, but if he's looking like an 80-ish wRC+ player who's potentially ruining their chance to contend in the short 2-year window remaining where they have the best player in baseball, it becomes a "damned if they do, damned if they don't" scenario really quick.  Releasing him is embarrassing, but they can at least make the case that they're doing it for baseball reasons and not face-saving reasons.  It's not their job to look out for his legacy.

 

We'll see how Ohtani's recovery goes, but Roster Resource says he's "doubtful" for opening day.  Once he's healthy enough for regular PAs, I think the team is going to want to put the best players out there.  If Pujols isn't producing and the team is winning a lot of games, I think releasing him is a possibility.  It complicates the 10-year "personal services" gimmick in his contract, but what's another $10 million down the drain compared to paying $100 mil for below-replacement production?

 

If Ohtani is healthy enough for regular reps, I do not see Pujols (or Bour) as obstacles.  That's a huge "if", though.

Yeah, I agree with a lot of this. I believe Ausmus will want to put the best players on the field at all times. He doesn't have the commitment to Pujols that Scioscia had. If Pujols isn't producing, bench him and let others get his ABs. I think Ohtani will be the DH most of the time, with Bour playing 1B. 

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Ohtani is in many ways the biggest draw for the club.  Trout is the greatest player of our generation, but Ohtani was all over the media last season and I think that the club will get him on the field every chance they have.  It's just $$$.  So yes I think that, barring injuries, 500+ ABs is probable and hopefully he sees enough fielding to qualify beyond UTIL.

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9 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Ohtani is in many ways the biggest draw for the club.  Trout is the greatest player of our generation, but Ohtani was all over the media last season and I think that the club will get him on the field every chance they have.  It's just $$$.  So yes I think that, barring injuries, 500+ ABs is probable and hopefully he sees enough fielding to qualify beyond UTIL.

This. Its VERY hard for me to imagine their second best hitting option wont be in the lineup on a daily basis. Not to mention the fact that the fans want to see him and Trout. Period. 

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I think Ohtani (hitter) will be one of the biggest mysteries going into the draft this year as far as finding the correct draft position. An everyday Ohtani makes sense getting drafting in the 15-25 range (maybe even lower). A part/full time Ohtani may drop his ADP 2-3 rounds. He has the capability of being a true steal/bust this year and I'm highly intrigued to see which way that plays out. Anyone planning on reaching/staying away in this years draft?

Edited by Dirty Little Birdie

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1 hour ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

I think Ohtani (hitter) will be one of the biggest mysteries going into the draft this year as far as finding the correct draft position. An everyday Ohtani makes sense getting drafting in the 15-25 range (maybe even lower). A part/full time Ohtani may drop his ADP 2-3 rounds. He has the capability of being a true steal/bust this year and I'm highly intrigued to see which way that plays out. Anyone planning on reaching/staying away in this years draft?

I want to reach,  but in a redraft its hard to draft a UTIL only guy in the first 3 rounds.  Still might do it though,  this kid can hit.  Im sold 

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According to this ADP (https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp) Ohtani's going around pick #93. That would be in the 7th round for a 12-team league and seems reasonable.

 

Also, just food for thought, Miguel Cabrera is going at #153 (12th round) and he's another UTIL-only player, at least to start the season.  Personally, I'd rather have Miggy five rounds later... all you sacrifice are the SBs and a couple HRs but you gain AVG.

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I love the power/speed combo but am worried about benchings vs LHPs and to build up his health for pitching usage cutting into ABs.  

 

If I knew they were committing to him as a hitter only I’d be less concerned about LHP since I think he could be one of those hitters who is special enough that they let him play through it and the overall season stats would still net out to being pretty awesome.

Edited by Weekday Warrior

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1 hour ago, En Votto Veritas said:

According to this ADP (https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp) Ohtani's going around pick #93. That would be in the 7th round for a 12-team league and seems reasonable.

 

Also, just food for thought, Miguel Cabrera is going at #153 (12th round) and he's another UTIL-only player, at least to start the season.  Personally, I'd rather have Miggy five rounds later... all you sacrifice are the SBs and a couple HRs but you gain AVG.

Miggy started 32 games last year at 1B. It would be the rare league that Miggy would be a utility only player. 

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People are seriously discussing taking this guy in the first three rounds? That seems crazy to me. Can't imagine they allow him to run much due to his elbow and if he does play everyday I think exposing him to LHP far more often could really drag down his average. He hit .222 against them in 110 PA last season with a 32% K rate. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, absknicks said:

People are seriously discussing taking this guy in the first three rounds? That seems crazy to me. Can't imagine they allow him to run much due to his elbow and if he does play everyday I think exposing him to LHP far more often could really drag down his average. He hit .222 against them in 110 PA last season with a 32% K rate. 

 

 

No chance, and that's coming from an Angels fan. He just won't play enough.

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On 12/19/2018 at 1:07 PM, En Votto Veritas said:

According to this ADP (https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp) Ohtani's going around pick #93. That would be in the 7th round for a 12-team league and seems reasonable.

 

Also, just food for thought, Miguel Cabrera is going at #153 (12th round) and he's another UTIL-only player, at least to start the season.  Personally, I'd rather have Miggy five rounds later... all you sacrifice are the SBs and a couple HRs but you gain AVG.

 

I'm definitely picking at nits here, but pick 93 would come in the 8th round of a 12-teamer, and pick 153 would come in the 13th round. 

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It's been a month since any Shohei posts. Are there any updates from Angel fans regarding his PT, Pujols, Bour, etc. I see some guys have a hard time seeing him get everyday PT, while others have a hard time seeing him get anything but everyday PT. 

 

Are we thinking that 400-450 ABs is probable this year...or are we looking at less? I understand he's got his TJS rehab to go through...and then there is Pujols and Bour to deal with at 1B and DH. Seems like ~450 ABs might be a good number. I wonder how many SBAs he'll get. I know they don't want to risk the surgically repaired elbow, but if he slides feet first, will it really be at risk? 

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On 12/23/2018 at 3:05 PM, LuckBox1 said:

He will be a 30/30 man in 2019.

I think bold predictions is on another thread

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3 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

It's been a month since any Shohei posts. Are there any updates from Angel fans regarding his PT, Pujols, Bour, etc. I see some guys have a hard time seeing him get everyday PT, while others have a hard time seeing him get anything but everyday PT. 

 

Are we thinking that 400-450 ABs is probable this year...or are we looking at less? I understand he's got his TJS rehab to go through...and then there is Pujols and Bour to deal with at 1B and DH. Seems like ~450 ABs might be a good number. I wonder how many SBAs he'll get. I know they don't want to risk the surgically repaired elbow, but if he slides feet first, will it really be at risk? 

Im so flustered on this guy and I own him on the cheap so its pretty much a no brainer keeper its just a matter of do I try to deal him and whats the market?  Is he a star is he a part time guy?  Is he ready to roll from the get go?  How much time will he miss doing pitcher recovery/rehab?  

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He was a discussion on a fangraphs podcast a few days ago.  Wide range of strong opinions on him.  Those looking at skills see huge 30-30 potential with good average. Those looking at rehab effect and ABs tap the brakes a lot.  Also issue of DH only knocking down value. 

 

At 100-ish  I think I will look at him, especially if I haven't taken any major risks early.  If I have taken several upside picks, I will probably look elsewhere. 

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I'm an Ohtani dynasty owner, and for redraft, I find myself somewhere in the middle of the range of opinions for this year. 

 

First off, and just getting this out of the way- I will say that from a fan perspective, there are very few more fun players to own in fantasy baseball. Having this guy on the mound dominating once a week and then mashing a few other days is a treat, and I couldn't get enough of watching his starts/highlights all last season. 

 

Now, with that aside, taking a look at realistic expectations is where things get a bit trickier. Obviously we don't have to worry about the pitching end of things this year, so that leaves rehab and positional concerns.

 

Personally, I don't find Bour that much of a threat for time. Pujols realistically isn't either, but I think the organization will be more tied and inclined to play Pujols. I can't really see Ohtani playing much OF while rehabbing from TJ, which leaves 1B and DH between the three. Pujols is owed quite a bit of money and is Pujols, whereas Bour was signed for (seemingly) some added depth. You also have to factor in talent levels and fan draw. The Angels would have a hard time selling their fans on sitting Ohtani more often than not. He's a huge draw and people are going to that stadium to see him and Trout. Regarding talent, well, they all saw what we saw last year, and it would be near impossible that Bour and Pujols give you a better chance to win.  

 

Assuming Bour and Pujols stay healthy all season, I think it's safe to assume Ohtani gets two games off per week for rehab/maintenance reasons. Do I think Ohtani can go 30/30? I think he has the ability to, but I don't think we'll see him attempt that many steals. I can see 30/10- still plenty valuable. With his ADP right now according to fantasy pros at 122, it feels low to me. I would certainly have no objections to going into the double digit picks to take him. 

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14 hours ago, parrothead said:

Im so flustered on this guy and I own him on the cheap so its pretty much a no brainer keeper its just a matter of do I try to deal him and whats the market?  Is he a star is he a part time guy?  Is he ready to roll from the get go?  How much time will he miss doing pitcher recovery/rehab?  

 

Yeah, I'm trying to figure him out, too. I also have him as a cheap keeper (20th round out of 30 rounds), but I don't see trading him as an option. I think trading him at this point, even as a cheap keeper, would simply be pennies on the dollar, and I'm not willing to do that. Whether I keep him or not is another matter, but I'm not going to trade him cheaply. I do think he's a star...but I think he's going to be a part-time star. Simply by virtue of the fact that he'll have to take days off to rehab his elbow, he won't be a 150-game guy, even at DH. If he gets a couple of days off every week (as adifazio suggested), then hoping for more than 120 games will be futile. 


So if we're looking at 120 games as a max, what kind of numbers does he produce? For me, I'm thinking we're looking at 23-26 HR, 70-75 RBI/R. The SBs are up in the air. 

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Does anyone know if Y! is going to adjust their treatment of him?  I have both versions of him in a keeper (keep 7) but I don't think either version has enough value to be kept but if they were to combine him like other platforms that he becomes an appealing asset.

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[League / platform specification derail removed. We understand that Ohtani's value changes depending on your format, but if your contribution focuses on how your league is dealing with the dual eligibility issue, it needs to go in the platform thread. Meanwhile, the proper response to a thread that's been derailed is to report it to us, not complain publicly or criticize others.]

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2 hours ago, MJDrocks said:

I'm staying far, far away from Ohtani.  He's going so high for someone with so much uncertainty.

 

Depends on how high he goes in the draft. I think if you bake in the belief that he’ll get 120 games in and draft accordingly, you’ll be rewarded. Anything more is lagniappe. 

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