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Shohei Ohtani 2019 Outlook

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I feel like he’s slowed down a bit ever since he’s ramped up his throwing program. Hopefully he hasn’t lost focus on his batting. I’m far from worried just an observation .

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I mentioned awhile back this guy wasn't going to produce what people expected this year. I was met with skepticism and jokes. He is currently ranked behind worldbeaters like Eric Sogard. The counting stats aren't there and likely wont be until next year. Love his talent but this year he's just mostly name value and not even a must roster given his dumb Util only designation. The roster flexibility you lose with him mostly isn't worth his sexy name and middling stat line.

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34 minutes ago, BETTAFISH said:

I mentioned awhile back this guy wasn't going to produce what people expected this year. I was met with skepticism and jokes. He is currently ranked behind worldbeaters like Eric Sogard. The counting stats aren't there and likely wont be until next year. Love his talent but this year he's just mostly name value and not even a must roster given his dumb Util only designation. The roster flexibility you lose with him mostly isn't worth his sexy name and middling stat line.

I certainly enjoyed the month plus worth of top 20 overall stats he gave me instantly after I picked up from the wire. He's cooled down sure. I'll let you get back to your victory lap though. 

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6 minutes ago, mmcc1029 said:

I certainly enjoyed the month plus worth of top 20 overall stats he gave me instantly after I picked up from the wire. He's cooled down sure. I'll let you get back to your victory lap though. 

 

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Unfortunately those few small weeks he gave you of good productivity still wouldn't have been worth holding him the entire year for, which was my initial and current argument. Thats essentially all he's done worth noting the entire year. So you can keep pretending like he's been anything more than a name value asset still at this very late juncture in the year. Much like many other low profile guys from the WW who get hot for a couple weeks and then are tossed aside. To my point he's not a must own.

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1 minute ago, BETTAFISH said:

Unfortunately those few small weeks he gave you of good productivity still wouldn't have been worth holding him the entire year for, which was my initial and current argument. Thats essentially all he's done worth noting the entire year. So you can keep pretending like he's been anything more than a name value asset still at this very late juncture in the year. Much like many other low profile guys from the WW who get hot for a couple weeks and then are tossed aside. To my point he's not a must own.

 

  Batting
Monthly G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
May 20 80 6 20 0 0 3 13 9 23 0 1 .250 .330 .363 .692
June 27 94 19 32 6 1 9 22 7 26 4 0 .340 .379 .713 1.091
July 24 83 10 23 4 1 3 8 10 18 5 0 .277 .358 .458 .816

 

Few small weeks?   I get the premise of your argument but I still disagree.  When/if Shohei gets hot he is a difference maker in fantasy.  

 

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How should he be valued next season as a hitter with him sitting the day before and day after he pitches?  So essentially he sits 3 days a week.

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1 minute ago, Zig Zag said:

 

  Batting
Monthly G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
May 20 80 6 20 0 0 3 13 9 23 0 1 .250 .330 .363 .692
June 27 94 19 32 6 1 9 22 7 26 4 0 .340 .379 .713 1.091
July 24 83 10 23 4 1 3 8 10 18 5 0 .277 .358 .458 .816

 

Few small weeks?   I get the premise of your argument but I still disagree.  When/if Shohei gets hot he is a difference maker in fantasy

 

June he was hot and the rest looks pretty pedestrian. And to your point that when he gets hot he can be a difference maker? ...virtually any player can be a difference maker when they get hot in fantasy.

 

1 minute ago, Zig Zag said:

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Zig Zag said:

 

  Batting
Monthly G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
May 20 80 6 20 0 0 3 13 9 23 0 1 .250 .330 .363 .692
June 27 94 19 32 6 1 9 22 7 26 4 0 .340 .379 .713 1.091
July 24 83 10 23 4 1 3 8 10 18 5 0 .277 .358 .458 .816

 

Few small weeks?   I get the premise of your argument but I still disagree.  When/if Shohei gets hot he is a difference maker in fantasy.  

 

Isn't that pretty much proving his point though. May stats are pretty mundane extrapolating them out to 600AB you only have 48 runs/ 24HR/ RBI are good at 104. July would be worse even playing more games.  That leaves the few weeks of June.

Ddisclaimer: I had dropped him before June as the production zI felt wasn't there

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12 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Isn't that pretty much proving his point though. May stats are pretty mundane extrapolating them out to 600AB you only have 48 runs/ 24HR/ RBI are good at 104. July would be worse even playing more games.  That leaves the few weeks of June.

Ddisclaimer: I had dropped him before June as the production zI felt wasn't there

 

I don't think it's proving his point at all.  It shows you what he is capable of over a couple months (june & july) span which IMO was a very valuable fantasy asset.

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On 8/5/2019 at 1:05 PM, BETTAFISH said:

I mentioned awhile back this guy wasn't going to produce what people expected this year. I was met with skepticism and jokes. He is currently ranked behind worldbeaters like Eric Sogard. The counting stats aren't there and likely wont be until next year. Love his talent but this year he's just mostly name value and not even a must roster given his dumb Util only designation. The roster flexibility you lose with him mostly isn't worth his sexy name and middling stat line.

I believe he's around top 30-40 hitter in 5X5 since his first game (May 7th).

(Fantrax has him as 28th best hitter since May 7th, but that is fantrax, not sure where he's at with ESPN/Yahoo since may 7th). While i'm not a fan of ignoring when an early/mid round pick misses a month in terms of ROI. Don't see it as a big deal for someone drafted more in lotto range. Where the opportunity cost was low and you were not counting on him being a key cog to your team in the first place.

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You’re bugging if you think this guy shouldn’t be owned in every league. High floor and high ceiling . His stats over a full year would be 30+ home runs and 90+ RBI and that counts the period he was shaking off he rust from tommy john and not having an offseason to prepare . I’d say pick your battles and saying Ohtani isn’t at least a must own (I consider him a must start) shouldn’t be one. 

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22 minutes ago, treyjuice said:

You’re bugging if you think this guy shouldn’t be owned in every league. High floor and high ceiling . His stats over a full year would be 30+ home runs and 90+ RBI and that counts the period he was shaking off he rust from tommy john and not having an offseason to prepare . I’d say pick your battles and saying Ohtani isn’t at least a must own (I consider him a must start) shouldn’t be one. 

 

A lot of people struggle with perceived value vs actual value when it comes to fantasy. Many situational things tied to him chip away at his overall value. He’s an exciting player no doubt but that doesn’t always translate into fantasy success. These situational problems aren’t likely going anywhere. First off, he’s running much less this year. He also gets regular maintenance days off on top of his other inter league no DH games. His biggest downfall in my eyes is his lack of positional eligibility. Couple all these things with the fact that we are more than 3/4 through the year and his stat line does not move the needle at all. Guys with similar AB counts like Gio Urshela, Bryan Reynolds and Eric Sogard have been out producing him and I don’t view any of them as must owns either. I know he was taken later in many drafts so yea that excuse is there. My only argument is that this year people are overrating him and his actual value doesn’t represent a player that must be owned at all times (at least for this year anyway) ...he’s being put on a pedestal for reasons other than his production.

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19 hours ago, BETTAFISH said:

First off, he’s running much less this year. 

Um, Ohtani has 9 SBs in 269 ABs with 2 CS this year...

vs 10 SBs in 326 ABs with 4 CS last year.

He's running ever so slightly less, but he's more successful.

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in 76 games he is hitting:

.286/.353/.509

15 homers
9 steals
35 runs
43 rbi

 

162 Pro-rated

31 homers
19 steals
74 runs
91 rbi

 

Obviously you have to have a player you can move into his spot when he sits against the NL, but when he is in the lineup, that is the production you are getting.  Hard to beat that when you should have selected him with a late pick, or even a waiver wire pickup.

 

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5 hours ago, GJDHouse said:

in 76 games he is hitting:

.286/.353/.509

15 homers
9 steals
35 runs
43 rbi

 

162 Pro-rated

31 homers
19 steals
74 runs
91 rbi

 

Obviously you have to have a player you can move into his spot when he sits against the NL, but when he is in the lineup, that is the production you are getting.  Hard to beat that when you should have selected him with a late pick, or even a waiver wire pickup.

 

The whole pro rating thing might have held some water months ago. We are at the end of the season essentially and his counting stats mirror the likes of many low tier ww fodder. This is factual. Projections and hopes and dreams are just that. He is not reaching those idealistic numbers. Holding a guy all year (if you did) for replacement level low end production, I don’t think thats hard to beat at all. Many ww guys have emerged with great value one would have lost out on holding him just for his name. That’s not even taking the benching and positional eligibility deficiencies into consideration either. If you read back, I never said don’t pick the guy up ever. My only argument is that he’s not a must own player.

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1 hour ago, BETTAFISH said:

The whole pro rating thing might have held some water months ago. We are at the end of the season essentially and his counting stats mirror the likes of many low tier ww fodder. This is factual. Projections and hopes and dreams are just that. He is not reaching those idealistic numbers. Holding a guy all year (if you did) for replacement level low end production, I don’t think thats hard to beat at all. Many ww guys have emerged with great value one would have lost out on holding him just for his name. That’s not even taking the benching and positional eligibility deficiencies into consideration either. If you read back, I never said don’t pick the guy up ever. My only argument is that he’s not a must own player.

The f*** you talking about?  There’s roughly 1/3rd of the season left.  30% to be exact.  In what world is that “essentially the end?”  You’re also looking at things when he has zero stats in August thus far because he faced Cleveland’s elite staff + was in NL parks sitting out.  You’re looking at the small sample to pick your argument, over his last 30 games he has 5 HRs, 10 RBIs, 5 SBs, .850 OPS.  He has an .860 OPS at the tail end of a cold streak.  In a few weeks he’ll be back at .880-.900+.  He is a must own player in any sized league.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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7 hours ago, BETTAFISH said:

The whole pro rating thing might have held some water months ago. We are at the end of the season essentially and his counting stats mirror the likes of many low tier ww fodder. This is factual. Projections and hopes and dreams are just that. He is not reaching those idealistic numbers. Holding a guy all year (if you did) for replacement level low end production, I don’t think thats hard to beat at all. Many ww guys have emerged with great value one would have lost out on holding him just for his name. That’s not even taking the benching and positional eligibility deficiencies into consideration either. If you read back, I never said don’t pick the guy up ever. My only argument is that he’s not a must own player.

Yikes. 

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I disagree, but thats why these forums exist in the first place to discuss and bounce ideas around. I am absolutely not looking at the small sample size. Im gauging his whole season output. You are banking on him returning significant value in the small sample size left. Could it happen? sure but I’m not so confident.

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1 hour ago, BETTAFISH said:

I disagree, but thats why these forums exist in the first place to discuss and bounce ideas around. I am absolutely not looking at the small sample size. Im gauging his whole season output. You are banking on him returning significant value in the small sample size left. Could it happen? sure but I’m not so confident.

Nothing wrong with disagreement, but trying to insinuate he is a questionable rosterable talent in some leagues is pretty nonsensical.  He’s alrwady returned value for anyone who invested in him.  He missed a full month of the season.  He had an unknown return date on draft day.  He was ADP of 171, he’s been a top 80 player since returning.  Most fantasy rankings websites have him ranked ROS between 45-60.  I understand taking a bit of a different approach to analyzing players, but im having a hard time fathoming the stance that he’s not a must own player.

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In my league at least, you can only start one player each day in the UTIL spot which means bench bats are of more limited value since they are really filling in for days off rather than purely additive to your totals. With Shohei out, I got production from someone on a full-time basis until he returned and then Ohtani's production since from that spot.  So I've been quite happy with what we've seen from him and what I've gotten from the UTIL slot. 

May is the only month he hasn't given super useful production on a 600 AB basis unless you think you can't find a use for a 57 HR / 26 SB player (June) or a 22 HR / 36 SB player (July).

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1 minute ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

anyone holding on to him for playoffs? he's been slumping hard. 

Real hard I'm wondering if it cause of the increase of pitching 

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