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Carlos Correa 2019 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, CAT said:

Keep sleeping on him, people.  He is an elite talent and will bounce back.  Get him outside of the 1st round while you can...

I wouldn’t take him in second.  I agree he’s a nice talent.  But the hype was probably hyperbole coming out of gate.  Next A-Rod was tossed around.  But regardless he is in an elite lineup so the stats will come.  The issue is do we even know who he is?  6 stolen base attempts in last 209 games.  If he doesn’t run he definitely isn’t a second round pick.  The upside is enticing but you have to ask yourself who is he really?  No one really knows.  If you take him in second round got elephantitus.  No chance im taking him over Story, Báez who pretty much assured of 15+ sbs with same offensive type upside.  He’s more of a 35+ round target IMO.

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1 hour ago, CAT said:

Keep sleeping on him, people.  He is an elite talent and will bounce back.  Get him outside of the 1st round while you can...

 

Talent or not he went .239 with 15 bombs and 3 steals in 110 games last year. That’s atrocious. He has a ton of name value and hype from his prospect status and early MLB success. He’s ranked as the 42nd player off the board on ESPN and an ADP in the mid to late 40s to early 50s on most sites which seems about right because he does still have upside, I definitely wouldn’t reach for him any earlier than that though. 

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It looks like injuries are baked into the cost.  There is a lot of value in some mid round shortstops so I am going to pass on CC.

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I agree that his injury risk is baked into his cost as he is currently going at pick 45 in composite ADP from FantasyPros (includes ESPN, NFBC, CBS, Fantrax, and RTsports). If we could guarantee a healthy season from Correa would anyone be surprised if he hit .285/.360/.475 with 85+ runs, 30+ HRs, 100+ RBIs and ~8 SBs? That would be equivalent to Machado minus the muilti-position eligibility. Obviously we cannot guarantee a healthy season but he is just two seasons removed from playing 153 games and he is just 25 years old. I know we're dealing with back tightness, which can be tricky, but that only began last year. The 2017 injury that derailed his season was a torn ligament in his thumb from sliding head first into home only to aggravate it on a swing a couple weeks later then go under the knife. Sort of a freak injury if you ask me. Keep in mind he was on an MVP like tear prior to that injury.

Fast forward to 2019 and he's claiming his back is feeling great. I know we can only go off of the players word at this point but he is now practicing yoga a few times a week to strengthen his core which helps with back soreness. There are endless studies and cases out there where yoga has helped people with their back pain for years so I have a good feeling about this. I really like Correa at this point in the draft and think he is going to have a very good year and play near 150 games. 

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Back injuries scare the heck out of me, this is not something he should be dealing with at his age and it could easily be injured again this year. I don’t like the discount enough this year, he’s a bit injury prone and I think he’s overrrated for fantasy. Can’t see him stealing much so that kills his value too. 

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2 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

Back injuries scare the heck out of me, this is not something he should be dealing with at his age and it could easily be injured again this year. I don’t like the discount enough this year, he’s a bit injury prone and I think he’s overrrated for fantasy. Can’t see him stealing much so that kills his value too. 

 

Yeah I agree back injuries can be tricky but there has been no evidence to support that it's anything serious like a herniated disc or anything like that. The only reports have been of back tightness and soreness. Those are not two words I would use to describe anything serious and there are a lot of case studies and research on how yoga helps to strengthen the core and improve those minor issues. Also, what other injuries has he had, other than the fluke torn thumb ligament, that is making you say he's injury prone? He didn't deal with injuries in the minors and he's only been in the majors for 3 full seasons. Yes two of those seasons he spent time on the DL but, again, one of them was sort of a fluke that caused him to miss roughly two months. All in all I don't believe the sample size is large enough for us to deem him injury prone just yet.

 

Also, to talk about the lack of steals, what makes him so different than Machado for example? Machado has only stolen more than 12 bags once in his career yet he's consistently ranked in the top 15. I think he's a safe bet for 10 bags but I'm not banking on anything more than that at this point in his career and I feel like Correa is a safe bet for 5. In my opinion Correa has just as much power potential as Machado and is certainly in a better lineup. That being said, the difference of roughly 5 SBs are not enough for me to value Machado that much higher than Correa and I would not be surprised if Correa outranks Machado this season. I know a lot of people will disagree with that but I bet their only argument is that Correa is "injury prone".

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On ‎1‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 2:32 AM, CORTEz said:

 

 

But anyone thinking that CC is going to break out randomly for one of those .310 BA, 35 HR, 110 RBI seasons are probably going to be disappointed.

 

 

it wont be randomly. 1st half 2017 in 81 games he had 20 hrs 62 runs 65 rbis 325 avg 979 ops

40/125/130/325 is the upside maybe ha 

 

just took the plunge tonight in first draft (pick 31)

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Yeah to say a season like that would be coming out of nowhere either means you believe the narrative that he’s “injury-prone” or that you’re completely ignoring his production and body of he put together in the minors and in his short time in the majors. If he has a healthy season he is late first round worthy which means him getting picked around pick 40 already has that injury risk baked into his price. 

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We don't know the nature of his back injury.  All back injuries are not the same.  If he is recovered from it, I would not hesitate to project a .275 AVG, 25-30 HR, 70-90 RBI with the potential for more.  He will be 24 for almost the entire season (9/22).    

Put it this way - if his injury is just a short term thing, his monster year(s) are yet to come.  .280+ AVG, 30+ HR, 100 RBI type seasons.  He's that good.

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Without the steals (which almost certainly aren't coming back), even his best case scenario season probably isn't first round worthy. 

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

We don't know the nature of his back injury.  All back injuries are not the same.  If he is recovered from it, I would not hesitate to project a .275 AVG, 25-30 HR, 70-90 RBI with the potential for more.  He will be 24 for almost the entire season (9/22).    

 Put it this way - if his injury is just a short term thing, his monster year(s) are yet to come.  .280+ AVG, 30+ HR, 100 RBI type seasons.  He's that good.

 

If the back injury is behind him something would have to go seriously wrong for him to not reach 90 RBIs with his position in that lineup. I'd say 90 RBIs would likely be his floor if we could guarantee his health.

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correa has play 2.9 full seasons if you want to talk about games played.

from ages 20-23 correa has a 162 game avg of  28 hr, 109 rbis, 93 runs, 11 sb, 277 avg, 833 ops

(btw baseball reference has 162 game avg already done)

Edited by colepenhagen

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3 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

correa has play 2.9 full seasons if you want to talk about games played.

from ages 20-23 correa has a 162 game avg of  28 hr, 109 rbis, 93 runs, 11 sb, 277 avg, 833 ops

(btw baseball reference has 162 game avg already done)

 

i agree correa's best may still be in front of him, but if someone is thinking about taking correa this year, they can probably wait a couple rounds for Seager

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Had my auction last night, 15-team 5x5 (OBP > BA). Correa was arguably my favorite selection. Got him for $24. To put it in context: Turner ($41), Bregman ($38), Lindor ($36), Machado ($34), Story ($30), Baez ($27). Correa was the same price as Xander and a buck more than Gleybar.  I'll take this discount any day. Last time I had Correa was 2017 and that was actually an excellent season were it not for the "flukey" thumb injury. Pardon such a flawed exercise but extrapolate his 2017 numbers over 162-games and you get 121/36/124 with good ratios. I don't mind the absence of steals. The injury marred '18 should dampen his value some but his body is still young enough I'm not so alarmed. Unlike others, I don't think this guy is overrated, he's run into some impediments precluding him from the big year he's capable of. Hopefully, the stars align this season. 

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After being burned by him the last two years, I decided I would not draft him no matter what. It wouldn't surprise me that this year he puts it all together and I'll come crawling back and overpaying next year. 

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Good players tend to silence the critics. Machado came off a pretty down year but was in a contract year and put up big numbers last year. I saw enough of Correas AB's when he was hurting. He coudn't provide any plate coverage and would just wave at anything down and away. This went on for 3 weeks to a month before they decided to shelve him which really hurt his numbers. As mentioned, I haven't read anywhere of any disk issues or long term debilitating back injury that I can confidently say he will bounce back, the SBs maybe not. He's a taller guy and hits 3-4 in the order and it seemed the club made a decision not to run him as much.

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Stumbled across this from March 1:

https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/amp/Astros-Carlos-Correa-displaying-rejuvenated-13657031.php

Pertinent bits:

"While his back barked and his 2018 season slipped away, Carlos Correa claimed he could not hit a baseball harder than 105 mph off his bat. . . . 

On Thursday . . . Correa split the left-center field gap with another double. Though Major League Baseball does not keep tabulations on exit velocity in spring training games, the Astros do.

'First thing I did yesterday was to look at the exit velo,' Correa said. 'That was 113. That made me feel good . . .'"

Anecdotal, but I had regular back spasms and associated soreness from age 35 to 40. It put me on my back every few weeks or so and bothered me almost daily. Alignment Yoga 2-3 times a week for six months made it go away. I'm 50 now and havent done yoga more than twice a month for about five years, but my back has given me no trouble -- nada, since about 3 months into the initial regimen.

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He was scratched from the lineup today with neck stiffness. Hopefully he just slept weird with his head twisted. We've all woken up with a stiff neck before right? Right? 

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This is the year to get Correa without having to pay the price.  Value, value value.  Give me that MVP season, baby!

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I think some of y'all are confusing this cat with Alex Bregman

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21 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

He was scratched from the lineup today with neck stiffness. Hopefully he just slept weird with his head twisted. We've all woken up with a stiff neck before right? Right? 

 

So it begins.....

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SON OF A B......

Questionable for Opening Day
March 26, 2019
Correa's neck stiffness may cause him to miss Opening Day, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Manager A.J. Hinch wouldn't commit to Correa being ready, saying the team would evaluate him over the next two days before making a call. The shortstop hasn't played since Friday, but he's been fielding groundballs and hitting in the cage, so it doesn't sound as if any potential absence will be a prolonged one.

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