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Manny Machado 2019 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, adifazio27 said:

 

San Diego might not have the league's best offense, but let's not forget that Manny was producing offense even with that putrid Orioles lineup around him. I don't think it's hard to imagine Manny hitting last year's numbers

That was in the AL East with much friendlier hitter parks and frankly, not nearly as good pitching as he will see in the NL West with the unbalanced schedule imo.  And while Adam Jones, Trumbo and the like are no winning prizes, who have the Padres got?  An over rated Hosmer...Villenueva?  That lineup is not scaring anyone.

Edited by secretagentman

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5 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

I think he will slip a round easily imo.  Pitcher's park, no protection, meaningless games, in a division with top flight pitching on the Dodgers, etc. Worst possible landing place imo.

It's not a pitcher's park, it's right in the middle, and they 3 teams in the division with substandard pitching, SF, Arizona and Colorado, I don't think it's so bad

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1 minute ago, secretagentman said:

That was in the AL East with much friendlier hitter parks and frankly, not nearly as good pitching as he will see in the NL West with the unbalanced schedule imo.  And while Adam Jones, Trumbo and the like are no winning prizes, who have the Padres got?  An over rated Hosmer...Villenueva?  That lineup is not scaring anyone.

Villenueva is long gone. They right now have Urias, Kinsler, Hosmer, Myers and not much more. 

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8 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

I reckon he gets a huge downgrade. Bad park, bad team is what the analysts will say.

 

Could there have been a worse landing spot?

 

8 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

I think he will slip a round easily imo.  Pitcher's park, no protection, meaningless games, in a division with top flight pitching on the Dodgers, etc. Worst possible landing place imo.

 

The Marlins? But as far as a realistic landing spot no not really this is probably the worst. I'm not arguing his fantasy outlook won't take a real hit here.  But I could also see an over correction considering how late this signing is and how much of the conversation is going to focus on the park and team factors in the next few weeks (some justifiably and some hyperbolically). I mean if you're getting to pick 25 and Manny is still sitting there because people are fading the situation that's still a steal to me.  

Edited by Baur10
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2 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I put the odds so low that Manny finishes this contract out in SD

Yeah well at that price tag\AAV, it will be almost impossible to move him.  He is stuck their until his opt out unless SD wants to eat a good portion of that imo.

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25 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Realize its a very small sample size, but in every park he has ever hit in, Manny Machado's highest batting average in any park is at PETCO with a .444 average there.  Most of the west coast parks deal with the marine layer, but since they brought the fences in a few years ago, you see a number of HR especially those oppo boppo shots by RH batters into the section which previously would not of been an HR.  Is it a band box?  No, but until you have legitimate hitters playing there and not hitting HR, then I think the stats can be somewhat skewed.  

Unfortunately this means the pitchers he hits best against are now his teammates.

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4 minutes ago, adifazio27 said:

 

San Diego might not have the league's best offense, but let's not forget that Manny was producing offense even with that putrid Orioles lineup around him. I don't think it's hard to imagine Manny hitting last year's numbers

 

without looking it up I was thinking the Orioles lineup was better with others around Machado like Schoop, Trumbo, Davis, Mancini. but last year Baltimore was 27th in R at 622. San Diego was 28th in R at 617.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting

 

I did see it somewhere that Camden Yards in Baltimore was a better hitters park, so Machado is going to miss that.

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Does San Diego run much?  That’s ultimately what makes him worth a top 20 pick.  Without the 14 or so SBs the 80 runs, 30 HR, 100 RBI type upside he provides isn’t exactly difficult to find.  The enticement was he was young and had a pretty high ceiling, with the ability to chip in some steals due to athleticism.  If he can still get 12-15 his value should be around the same.  If he dips to <5 then probably becomes a bit of a disappointment.  

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Didn't he say a few days ago that he was basically just going to take the highest offer? This decision is certainly indicative of that. I still think a lot has to fall right for the Padres to be competitive in the next 3-5 years. Some guys are perfectly happy playing baseball in impeccable weather with no pressure, I guess.

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1 minute ago, Cmilne23 said:

Does San Diego run much?  That’s ultimately what makes him worth a top 20 pick.  Without the 14 or so SBs the 80 runs, 30 HR, 100 RBI type upside he provides isn’t exactly difficult to find.  The enticement was he was young and had a pretty high ceiling, with the ability to chip in some steals due to athleticism.  If he can still get 12-15 his value should be around the same.  If he dips to <5 then probably becomes a bit of a disappointment.  

 

Looking back they were 8th in Team SBs/game last year.  More middle of the pack in 2017.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/stolen-bases-per-game

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I’m not sure what meaningless games have to do with anything?  Guy who won my roto league last year when I had Betts Trout Machado Krush Davis and a host of other studs, while the guy who won passed me with dudes like Villar, Kendrys Morales, and the other September flavor of month bums.  If anything playing in meaningless games probably is better for him.  As we saw in playoffs with him doing zippo he isn’t exactly someone who thrives for producing in spotlight.  He’s more of a Felix Hernandez type.  Get me my stats, pay me, and let me win my 60 games in peace.

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3 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

Yeah well at that price tag\AAV, it will be almost impossible to move him.  He is stuck their until his opt out unless SD wants to eat a good portion of that imo.

I mean the Stanton contract got moved. I could see in 3-4 years where 30 mil for all star isn't crazy plus if Padres kicked in and it got to 25-27.5 mil a year. 

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Worst place he could go for his fantasy value in San Diego

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I would assume the loaded farm system helped the Padres sell themselves, if they hit on some of their stud prospects look out

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Just now, kmoore1521 said:

I would assume the loaded farm system helped the Padres sell themselves, if they hit on some of their stud prospects look out

Really? Dodgers may suck at winning World Series but their resources crush Padres

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3 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I mean the Stanton contract got moved. I could see in 3-4 years where 30 mil for all star isn't crazy plus if Padres kicked in and it got to 25-27.5 mil a year. 

There are only so many teams that can pay that kind of money (maybe 6-8).  And there has to be a need and a desire to commit a large chunk of budget to someone who has so far shown no desire to compete in a pennant race imo.

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Just now, secretagentman said:

There are only so many teams that can pay that kind of money (maybe 6-8).  And there has to be a need and a desire to commit a large chunk of budget to someone who has so far shown no desire to compete in a pennant race imo.

Ya I mean we can't predict finances 3-4 years from now.. too early to say. 

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4 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

I would assume the loaded farm system helped the Padres sell themselves, if they hit on some of their stud prospects look out

I think the $$$s is what sold him.  No one says, yeah let's sign with a team that may compete in 3-4 years if things break right. 

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6 minutes ago, street sharks said:

Guys he's been elite when he's played in San Diego

 

O5WJ7ZG.png

 

Just don't look at the sample size

 

 

0 HR, and .533 BABIP.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

80 runs, 30 HR, 100 RBI type upside he provides isn’t exactly difficult to find.  

 

At SS?  You're not likely to find that outside of the 3rd round.

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22 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

That was in the AL East with much friendlier hitter parks and frankly, not nearly as good pitching as he will see in the NL West with the unbalanced schedule imo.  And while Adam Jones, Trumbo and the like are no winning prizes, who have the Padres got?  An over rated Hosmer...Villenueva?  That lineup is not scaring anyone.

I don't agree with the pitching strength at all. If you remove the Orioles (which he couldn't hit against) then the pitching and bullpen of the Sox, Yankees, and even Rays was pretty awesome. Colorado is a launching pad and the pitchers and bullpen isn't close to the Sox/Yanks tier. The Giants are a trainwreck. The DBacks aren't on that elite tier. The Dodgers are the only team in that elite tier of starters & bullpen. Sure, the ballparks aren't like NY, Boston, Balt...but Colorado and Arizona aren't bad at all. And they have made SD much more hitter friendly over the years. 

I don't think this is a big deal for Manny's value. Yes, it isn't optimal, but it isn't like he is going to Miami. SD is going to get better. They have young players that are developing. And Manny is still going to see plenty of pitchers that are going to pitch to him. He has dealt with this in Baltimore for a long time. 

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1 minute ago, 89Topps said:

At SS?  You're not likely to find that outside of the 3rd round.

 

Using SS eligibility as anything more than a tiebreaker seems unwise with how deep the position is nowadays.  Being dual eligible helps a bit more, but honestly I could see a lot of fantasy teams slotting him in at 3rd due to how many appealing SS options there are.  He should be evaluated on his own merits compared to other batters, not just among other SS.

With that said, I still think he's a 2nd rounder even if the SB are underwhelming, but that's because of his high floor and durability.

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