FantasyGeek2018

Manny Machado 2019 Outlook

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30 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Manny is money he will have 30+ HRs and close to 100 runs & rbis 

 

23 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

 

I feel he's still very capable of close to 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. I also think he could score 100 runs in this lineup if Myers and Hosmer stay healthy. 

Last year Hosmer led the team with 72 runs. Nobody else had more than 62. Hosmer also led the team with 69 RBI and was one of only 3 players on the squad over 60.

The year before, Myers had the team high in R with 80, and nobody else even reached 60. He also had a team high of 74 RBI.

 

I get that Manny is a much better hitter than those guys, andI don't doubt he can reach 30 HR, but where exactly are the extra 25-30 runs and rbi going to come from? This lineup is still going to be bad.

Edited by cs3
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11 minutes ago, cs3 said:

 

Last year Hosmer led the team with 72 runs. Nobody else had more than 62. Hosmer also led the team with 69 RBI and was one of only 3 players on the squad over 60.

The year before, Myers had the team high in R with 80, and nobody else even reached 60. He also had a team high of 74 RBI.

 

I get that Manny is a much better hitter than those guys, andI don't doubt he can reach 30 HR, but where exactly are the extra 25-30 runs and rbi going to come from? This lineup is still going to be bad.

You obviously cede the point here but Hosmer was warmed over feces last year - ALL year. No hot streaks, no cold streaks - just SUCK. Pretty good chance that answers some of your question to the positive.

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22 minutes ago, cs3 said:

 

Last year Hosmer led the team with 72 runs. Nobody else had more than 62. Hosmer also led the team with 69 RBI and was one of only 3 players on the squad over 60.

The year before, Myers had the team high in R with 80, and nobody else even reached 60. He also had a team high of 74 RBI.

 

I get that Manny is a much better hitter than those guys, andI don't doubt he can reach 30 HR, but where exactly are the extra 25-30 runs and rbi going to come from? This lineup is still going to be bad.

Interesting post from a commenter on Fangraphs:

I’m glad this was mentioned, although it really deserved more attention.  Machado’s home / road split is not only massive but clearly attributable to Camden Yards given that it comes almost entirely from extra power at home and Camden Yards has consistently been a top five park for right-handed power. Machado has hit 106 home runs at home versus 69 on the road. His slugging percentage is .533 at home versus .443 on the road. His wRC+ is 137 at home versus 104 on the road. Given that San Diego suppresses right handed power, it is extremely likely that Manny Machado will not come anywhere close to the batting production that San Diego paid for.

I think he'll end up more as a .280/28/90/90/8 guy next year, which is still pretty good, but not quite late 1st/early 2nd round material in my eyes.

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1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

I am ecstatic that he didn’t sign with the Yankees. 

Disagree on numbers ... Manny is money he will have 30+ HRs and close to 100 runs & rbis 

 

59 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

 

Exactly how I feel and I'm actually excited about the possibility of his price dropping entering my draft this weekend. I feel he's still very capable of close to 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. I also think he could score 100 runs in this lineup if Myers and Hosmer stay healthy. And I agree with what others have said about the park factor and opposing pitchers not being as big of an issue as some are making it. The AL east had far better pitching as a division but did have better parks as a whole. However Arizona and Colorado are nice alternatives and it's not like Petco is the Petco of old. 

 

dont fully agree with you two.  i think his stats will suffer outside of camden

 

 

36 minutes ago, cs3 said:

 

Last year Hosmer led the team with 72 runs. Nobody else had more than 62. Hosmer also led the team with 69 RBI and was one of only 3 players on the squad over 60.

The year before, Myers had the team high in R with 80, and nobody else even reached 60. He also had a team high of 74 RBI.

 

I get that Manny is a much better hitter than those guys, andI don't doubt he can reach 30 HR, but where exactly are the extra 25-30 runs and rbi going to come from? This lineup is still going to be bad.

 

12 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Interesting post from a commenter on Fangraphs:

I’m glad this was mentioned, although it really deserved more attention.  Machado’s home / road split is not only massive but clearly attributable to Camden Yards given that it comes almost entirely from extra power at home and Camden Yards has consistently been a top five park for right-handed power. Machado has hit 106 home runs at home versus 69 on the road. His slugging percentage is .533 at home versus .443 on the road. His wRC+ is 137 at home versus 104 on the road. Given that San Diego suppresses right handed power, it is extremely likely that Manny Machado will not come anywhere close to the batting production that San Diego paid for.

I think he'll end up more as a .280/28/90/90/8 guy next year, which is still pretty good, but not quite late 1st/early 2nd round material in my eyes.

 

ya i agree with you guys.  and thanks for the official stats @meh2

hes still a stud bu i think hes a 2nd rounder to me now. in NY or philly i think hed be a mid to late first easy

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I think people are slightly exaggerating the hit to his value. Petco was #16 in HR park factors last year and although it is still a pitchers park, it is much much more neutral than it used to be. I think he can still be penciled in for 28-32 dingers which is still great and I can still see him exceeding that. 

People are talking about how bad the lineup around him is going to be, but he had 48 runs and 65 rbis in 413 PA with the Orioles last year. Assuming his usual 700 PA, that is a pace of 81 runs and 110 rbis whilst being surrounded by the likes of Jonathon Schoop, Adam Jones, and the warmed over corpse of Chris Davis. 

If anything I have to think that his lineup at San Diego should be equal to or maybe even a little better than what he had to work with during his days with the Orioles.

If he falls into the late second or early third I would not hesitate grabbing him.

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1 hour ago, ktierne3 said:

I think people are slightly exaggerating the hit to his value. Petco was #16 in HR park factors last year and although it is still a pitchers park, it is much much more neutral than it used to be. I think he can still be penciled in for 28-32 dingers which is still great and I can still see him exceeding that. 

People are talking about how bad the lineup around him is going to be, but he had 48 runs and 65 rbis in 413 PA with the Orioles last year. Assuming his usual 700 PA, that is a pace of 81 runs and 110 rbis whilst being surrounded by the likes of Jonathon Schoop, Adam Jones, and the warmed over corpse of Chris Davis. 

If anything I have to think that his lineup at San Diego should be equal to or maybe even a little better than what he had to work with during his days with the Orioles.

If he falls into the late second or early third I would not hesitate grabbing him.

 

how about compared to Dodgers stadium?

he OPS'd 960 in camden last year and 825 in LA

thats not concerning to you?

 

i just also think hes slightly overrated.  ill throw away his first full year, but even after that he has two years of 755 and 782 OPS (2014,2017) sandwiched between two years of 861 and 876.

and as i stated, he was 825 in LA last year.

Overall he was a 887 OPS guy in Camden, and a 761 on the road.  people constantly say this about coors players, so i dont think its unfair to look at this for any player.  i think its perfectly reasonable to take this into account as you evaluate him for this years draft

Edited by jfazz23

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2 hours ago, ktierne3 said:

I think people are slightly exaggerating the hit to his value. Petco was #16 in HR park factors last year and although it is still a pitchers park, it is much much more neutral than it used to be. I think he can still be penciled in for 28-32 dingers which is still great and I can still see him exceeding that. 

People are talking about how bad the lineup around him is going to be, but he had 48 runs and 65 rbis in 413 PA with the Orioles last year. Assuming his usual 700 PA, that is a pace of 81 runs and 110 rbis whilst being surrounded by the likes of Jonathon Schoop, Adam Jones, and the warmed over corpse of Chris Davis. 

If anything I have to think that his lineup at San Diego should be equal to or maybe even a little better than what he had to work with during his days with the Orioles.

If he falls into the late second or early third I would not hesitate grabbing him.

You think Manny is going to fall that far.... ? 

No way 

Edited by shakestreet

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19 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

People will over react like they always do and he’ll drop a little too far.

 

 

is it an overreaction or a fair evaluation?

 

is taking him at 15 instead of 6 or 7 an overreaction?  quite honestly, im taking Story over Machado right now. but Machado is still slightly ahead of Baez to me.  Bregman's elbow scares me a little so i think i put him in the 2nd now too...maybe slightly before machado still

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Players almost always hit better at home due to more favorable ball/strike calls.

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

 

is it an overreaction or a fair evaluation?

 

is taking him at 15 instead of 6 or 7 an overreaction?  quite honestly, im taking Story over Machado right now. but Machado is still slightly ahead of Baez to me.  Bregman's elbow scares me a little so i think i put him in the 2nd now too...maybe slightly before machado still

 

He was being taken at the back end of the 1st now or the early 2nd

Are you taking him over 

Lindor, Baez, sale, altuve, judge, Stanton, Verlander, story, goldy, freeman?  

If anyone answered yes to half of those, he’s still an early 2nd rounder 

i think he falls some, but there will be drafts where people over react and falls too far 

 

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6 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

He was being taken at the back end of the 1st now or the early 2nd

Are you taking him over 

Lindor, Baez, sale, altuve, judge, Stanton, Verlander, story, goldy, freeman?  

If anyone answered yes to half of those, he’s still an early 2nd rounder 

i think he falls some, but there will be drafts where people over react and falls too far 

 

 

put me on the spot hmm, but keep in mind i had him top 8 before the signing.

 

Machado over Lindor, Baez, Sale, Verlander

Story, Judge, Stanton, FF, and Goldie over Machado.  but some of these are close. 

 

again, not saying hes garbage...but i think he dropped something like 6 or so spots...give or take

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

is it an overreaction or a fair evaluation?

 

is taking him at 15 instead of 6 or 7 an overreaction?  quite honestly, im taking Story over Machado right now. but Machado is still slightly ahead of Baez to me.  Bregman's elbow scares me a little so i think i put him in the 2nd now too...maybe slightly before machado still

I thought SD was a team that promoted SBs?  Jup's and Wil Myers SB's spiked when they came here

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Just now, Slatykamora said:

I thought SD was a team that promoted SBs?  Jup's and Wil Myers SB's spiked when they came here

 

its possible, but im not projecting him for 20.  

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12 hours ago, shakestreet said:

You think Manny is going to fall that far.... ? 

No way 

His Yahoo draft position is 22 which is late second round...if he falls a bit then that's early third...

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1 hour ago, ktierne3 said:

His Yahoo draft position is 22 which is late second round...if he falls a bit then that's early third...

So you base everything on Yahoo’s fantasy baseball rankings? 

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the important thing people are forgetting is he's 26 years old. He's just now starting to enter the best years of his career. I think 290/34/85/90 with 8-12 steals is a fair projection and I would take that in the second round 10/10 times. Bregman and Lindor are coming off injuries, judge and Stanton can go through frustrating slumps and K a bunch. Baez has contact issues and you never what you're going to get with Harper. I'll still be taking machado in 2nd with confidence 

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Looks like only Yahoo valued him low with late second round; all others value him early to mid second round. He probably won't hit close to 40 with that park as well as the other NL West pitchers parks, but he should still provide an early to mid second round value.

 

image.png.17aabfe44d7530b09bc3ab08f6c77650.png

 

Also, if this would happen, anything could..... I am sure Manny can still do it! :)

 

tolohr

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Obviously, Manny ending up in San Diego isn’t ideal for fantasy purposes. But I agree with others who have said his value won’t take a huge hit.

 

Petco isn’t a hitters park by any stretch, but I doubt it’ll hurt his power or average too much (I have him down for 32 homers and a ~.280 average, both of which would be great in my opinion). I don’t think there’s any reason to believe it alone will turn him into anything less than an ‘elite’ fantasy asset, now or in the future. Additionally, given the Padres’ running tendencies (top-8 in the MLB in attempts per game the last few years), I think there’s reason to believe he’ll maintain his solid SB total from last year, if not exceed it (I’m projecting him to reach 14). That’d help bolster his value.

 

The concern comes in with his supporting cast. If Manny is going to come anywhere near 185 R+RBI, he needs Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers to be healthy and productive. Hosmer in particular needs to avoid repeating the disappearing act he put on last year, and get back to the .345+ OBP/115+ wRC+ hitter he’s capable of being so Manny has someone to drive in. Myers simply needs to be available in more than 100 games so he can offer some protection behind him. If either of those guys goes down or underperform, things could go sideways quick. The Padres as currently constructed have little other help to offer, and Manny could struggle to reach the 180 R+RBI mark without them. That new floor (while not terrible) depresses his value a bit, especially when you consider that early projections for him baked in the possibility of him landing in Philly, New York, or even Chicago (whose lineup and park are slightly better, in my opinion).

 

All said, for 2019, I think Manny is a rock solid mid-to-late second round pick. I don’t think he’ll deliver on the mid-first round upside some (myself included) believed he had entering the winter, but he’s still a guy I’d love to grab with the 18th pick or later. A ~.281/.348/.514 92R/32HR/95RBI/14SB player is no one to sneeze at. 

 

A quick note for dynasty/keeper owners: I wouldn’t sell low on him this year. His move to SD, and whatever numbers he puts up this year, should not materially decrease his value. He’s still a young, proven stud who may not have reached his ceiling. Much better years lie ahead of both him and the Padres as prospects like Urias and Tatis make their way up. 

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21 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

so glad yankees didnt get him at that price

 

his power numbers wont look nearly as good in san diego.  baltimore is a GREAT place to hit

 

Is it?

Most of what I'm seeing rank Camden and Petco both being fairly close to neutral parks.  Camden is probably better, but it doesn't appear to be drastic.

Albeit, I admittedly do not know what the consensus best site for park factors is.

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Guessing lineups tends to be a crapshoot unless you are dealing with extreme ends. Eg Marlins or Red Sox.

You wont know if everyone besides myers will in fact suck. Margot, Urias, Reyes, Hosmer, Renfore all have degrees of realistic upside towards quality hitting. Yes they could all suck too.

Then there is always sometimes the out of nowhere guys. There is just way way too many varibles.

 

I tend to focus on the varibles of the player himself and his ball park. Those are more stable. Easier to project. The Padres are no Red Sox, but they are no Marlins either.

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3 hours ago, shakestreet said:

So you base everything on Yahoo’s fantasy baseball rankings? 

No you stated he wouldn't fall that far. Obviously he has in at least some leagues or he wouldn't be slotted where he is. His average pick before the trade was 19 which means at least some people have been drafting him in the late second. His max pick in NFBC is 25. If he falls because of what I would consider an overreaction to this trade then that's some good value.

Edited by ktierne3
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3 minutes ago, ktierne3 said:

No you stated he wouldn't fall that far. Obviously he has in at least some leagues or he wouldn't be slotted where he is.

I do not see Manny falling into the 20’s ... no way can I see him being available at 22. 

What leagues has he fallen to 22? I would like to see 

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