Dirty Little Birdie

2019 Sleepers / Value Picks

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Any Royals that might hit fantasy relevance this year?  Been a Royals fan forever and like following rebuilding teams but haven't been able to keep up with the current rebuild overly.  Seems like a good  year where players like Dozier, Junis, Mondesi, O'hearn may put up decent stat lines as bench players with upside while the Royals are awaiting their big hiting prospects.  Any of these guys worth taking a flier on late in drafts?  I usually target Perez as my catcher as well.  I drafted him on one team and passed on another last year.   And hit nice with Merrifield too last year since those were the only two Royals I had.  I was right on that.  Seems like there may be more Royals this year that are worth owning.

Edited by walker834
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Nothing in his 2018 stat line to suggest much confidence, but Lewis Brinson has all the pedigree in the world and should have almost unlimited leash on the Marlins. In deep leagues, especially NL only, I'm definitely taking a chance my last pick/$1. Also has a history of struggling with promotion before figuring things out.

 

 Kingery and A.Russell are a couple others I'm looking at towards the end of NL auctions.

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Statcast EV darling Daniel palka and ji man Choi / yandy Diaz on rays deserve a little love ITT

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5 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Statcast EV darling Daniel palka and ji man Choi / yandy Diaz on rays deserve a little love ITT

Palka, Choi, O'Hearn are all solid DFS and daily league with benches call ups.

I'm skeptical any of them with hit southpaws and since they all have little defensive value. Likely wont be get to 600 PAs or hit for a decent BA. Choi has the best chance for respectable BA of the 3.

Justin Bour isn't the Stat Cast Darling, but he's probably my call up before O'Hearn/Palka. Better chance for power/BA mix over just fugly power.

 

Truely though, given the lack of impact 1B. Getting 2 of Choi/Bour/O'Hearn could be a play for even 12 teamers. 

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I mentioned him on a different post, but it applies here: Reynaldo Lopez. I think he could be a late-round sleeper, rounds 18-20. The kid throws hard (94-96), has four pitches, including a developing slider. He delivered in 9 of his final 11 starts last year, including two starts where he went 7 IP and allowed just one run against the Yankees (twice). He has the prospect pedigree and will be entering his third year. Certainly trending in the right direction. He doesn't have the strikeout rate one would expect from a guy who throws that hard, but I suspect it will bump up. I think Glasnow, Pivetta and Hampson are on everybody's "sleeper" list. I also think there are some proven players who will be undervalued come draft day … Cano, Travis Shaw, Edwin Encarnacion. All are productive, but could slip because of age. I also like Puig (for the first time). I don't like the way they messed with lineups in LA. In Cincinnati, a hitters' park and a good lineup, he could put up career numbers. I would not be surprised to see a 25-20 season, assuming management just puts him out there every day. I also like Eduardo Rodriguez, who allowed less than a hit an inning and struck out more than a batter an inning. Again, he's one of those guys who has shown gradual improvement.

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Early, but seems Caleb Smith (aka Dr. K) is really being overlooked. He was quite useful (prob more so in points formats) last year and then he injured his lat, but he's under no restrictions in camp and throwing fine. There are a few issues with the profile--mostly lack of an overpowering velo on his FB and being very flyball heavy (which likely lead to a 5+ road ERA). But with a 27+% K rate last year, the 27 yr old is, at least, a great back of the fantasy rotation guy/high-end home start streamer...with a ceiling that might allow him to tap into more.

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Matt Boyd. Apparently has lost a ton of weight and is in the best shape of his life. Been reading a ton of positive outlooks on him, but also has a lot of negatives as well. Extreme home/away splits. Anyone intrigued this year? 

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14 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Early, but seems Caleb Smith (aka Dr. K) is really being overlooked. He was quite useful (prob more so in points formats) last year and then he injured his lat, but he's under no restrictions in camp and throwing fine. There are a few issues with the profile--mostly lack of an overpowering velo on his FB and being very flyball heavy (which likely lead to a 5+ road ERA). But with a 27+% K rate last year, the 27 yr old is, at least, a great back of the fantasy rotation guy/high-end home start streamer...with a ceiling that might allow him to tap into more.

I am intrigued by Smith. Like most, I worry about his lack of velocity. That said, other pitchers have been able to overcome that issue. Definitely worth a late-round grab.

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12 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

Matt Boyd. Apparently has lost a ton of weight and is in the best shape of his life. Been reading a ton of positive outlooks on him, but also has a lot of negatives as well. Extreme home/away splits. Anyone intrigued this year? 

I like Boyd. Especially when you can hide him on a bench, etc. Tigers have a pretty lousy team so must manage expectations accordingly but a late or end game pick might pay off.

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Jesse Chavez is a low profile name to put on the radar for speculative saves in deeper leagues.  Jose LeClerc was speculated to be traded during the off-season, and could still be on the move prior to the trade deadline. Last season, Chavez adjusted his arm angle,  which produced an uptick in velocity & greater movement on his fastball. The results were stellar as he posted both career bests in ERA (2.55) &  BB/9 .  He figures to play a prominent role back end of the Rangers bullpen, and is a LeClerc injury or trade away from more significant value. 

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On 2/18/2019 at 10:41 AM, ST. STEVEN said:

Early, but seems Caleb Smith (aka Dr. K) is really being overlooked. He was quite useful (prob more so in points formats) last year and then he injured his lat, but he's under no restrictions in camp and throwing fine. There are a few issues with the profile--mostly lack of an overpowering velo on his FB and being very flyball heavy (which likely lead to a 5+ road ERA). But with a 27+% K rate last year, the 27 yr old is, at least, a great back of the fantasy rotation guy/high-end home start streamer...with a ceiling that might allow him to tap into more.

 

We discussed Smith A LOT in his thread last year. The lack of velo is less of a concern due to his left handed release, and he disguises the ball well in his delivery. The ball definitely jumps on hitters quicker than it should according to readings.

 

Smith is one of my favorite sleepers this year. His mini stretch last season was pure dominance. 

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Those looking for pop late in deep leagues might like Peter O'Brien of the Marlins.  He's going to play RF this year so could get 30HR at literally no cost.

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On 2/18/2019 at 9:37 AM, Sonny_D said:

Matt Boyd. Apparently has lost a ton of weight and is in the best shape of his life. Been reading a ton of positive outlooks on him, but also has a lot of negatives as well. Extreme home/away splits. Anyone intrigued this year? 

the best shape of his life kiss of death claim

 

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2 hours ago, MJDrocks said:

Those looking for pop late in deep leagues might like Peter O'Brien of the Marlins.  He's going to play RF this year so could get 30HR at literally no cost.

This guy is Joey Gallo light. You might get 30 HRs, but it'll come with a .200 BA.

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2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

This guy is Joey Gallo light. You might get 30 HRs, but it'll come with a .200 BA.

Yeah, but don't forget about the 30 RBI. 

 

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Justin Bour. He’s going to end up getting 500 ABs and this is his first time starting the season with a team with a chance to win.

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14 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

This guy is Joey Gallo light. You might get 30 HRs, but it'll come with a .200 BA.

No, you're absolutely right about the low BA.  However, with Joey Gallo going around 100, why wouldn't you just grab this guy with your very last pick instead?  You might get a few less HR but I think these two players are more comparable than most know.

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If he is playing for a really bad team in a bad park for HRs. With major question marks about contact and no speed. Its a rather limited upside in 5x5. Someone i could see targetting in deeper formats where his PT situation is a plus.

How much of an edge is his upside vs WW pick ups in 12-14 teamers?

 

Rangers are a rebuilder..but there is at least some players there to help out R/RBI. While obviously being proven/bankable 40 HRs.

 

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Dunno if he's been mentioned yet, but Domingo Santana is being slept on, 2 years ago he went 30/15/.280ish then lost his playing time last year. New team, new opportunity. Only 30% owned in yahoo leagues.

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I'm actually shocked at the lack of talk for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. he struggled first call up, then on 2nd call up lit the world on fire before freak injury. Hit 290 with an 803 OPS in the 2H... and yet no one cares. 

 

 

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That hideous 8:1  K:BB ratio might have something to do with it. 

The guy swung at damn near 40% of pitches outside the strike zone, which would be bottom 15 in all if MLB if he had enough PA's to qualify. Pitchers are going to realize that they dont have to throw him strikes, and he will get himself out. He doesn't have the discipline to wait for good pitches to drive.

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Deep leagues only but Nate Karns is flying under the radar coming off an elbow surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome and should make the Baltimore rotation easily. Reports are he's looking and feeling great and last time he pitched in 2017 numbers were very encouraging with a 20.2 K-BB% and a 1.19 WHIP across 45.1 innings. I've always thought he was a good pitcher. Throacic outlet syndrome sucks and he's 31, but there is basically no risk and the opportunity is there. 

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12 hours ago, cs3 said:

That hideous 8:1  K:BB ratio might have something to do with it. 

The guy swung at damn near 40% of pitches outside the strike zone, which would be bottom 15 in all if MLB if he had enough PA's to qualify. Pitchers are going to realize that they dont have to throw him strikes, and he will get himself out. He doesn't have the discipline to wait for good pitches to drive.

It was 7:1, and July forward it was 6:1 and 36%... but he walks very little, his K Rate itself isn't too bad for a rookie at 22%, but it works because he makes a ton of contact and has an aggressive approach.

"45.6 percent of his batted balls were struck at over 95 mph – a mark that puts him inside the top ten percent in baseball (minimum 250 at bats) and ahead of players like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper and Matt Carpenter. Gurriel makes little soft contact (15.5 percent)"

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/half-season-heroes-lourdes-gurriel-jr/

Edited by StevieStats
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Just my 2 cents here. these are the guys I was targeting in later rounds.

 

Peter Alonso, Byron Buxton, Peter O'Brien, Lewis Brinson, Matt Boyd, Matt Strahm, Merril Kelly, Jonathan Loaisiga, Sandy Alcantara

Vince Velasquez, Jackie Bradley Jr., Yoan Moncada, Ryan O'Hearn, Christin Stewart, Corbin Burnes, Caleb Smith, Jorge Alfaro, Fransisco Mejia

Franmil Reyes.

 

Currently in 5 leagues. and these are the guys I am at least owning in 2 or more leagues, using my later picks

Would like to add a reason for each and every one of them... But it took to much time, so I'd rather just name the players :)

 

Edited by jhsong916
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