Dirty Little Birdie

2019 Sleepers / Value Picks

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1 hour ago, drunkb said:

I know that it happens, but how does 7 figure players get this far without a pitching coach noticing the flaw? More rhetorical than anything, but how does this happen more and more each year? I understand the arm strengthening and stretching part of it, but hips? That should be a noticeable thing on tape.

Some pitching coaches are much better than others at mechanics.  It's like how everyone used to want to go to the Cardinals or Pirates to fix flaws.

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Shaw and Mous. They are both underrated as hell.

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13 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Moustakas since he's the starter at 2b lol

 

He’s eligible there

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Jorge soler anyone? Was having a solid year before the injury, with no expectations in KC I can see him being a valuable bench bat with upside 

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On 2/26/2019 at 2:55 PM, street sharks said:

Let's say you guys like having 7 starters - how many of those would you feel safe having as upside picks? Such as Glasnow, Pivetta, Lopez, etc. Two, three?

 

Personally I'd typically roster 3/4 proven talents and leave the rest to upside. I'm a big bats guy and this method consistently lands me a top 3 finish. 

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Posted (edited)

Anybody liking Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, and Franmil Reyes for late power? Grichuk might get everyday AB's if he stays healthy so could be a very cheap 25+ homers

Edited by Dr. Whom

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20 hours ago, RotoSapien said:

Deep Deep Leauges - Tyler Beede trending up with FB velocity increase to mid-90s. Former 1st round pick - although I care much more about the uptick.

Is he actually in the rotation or someone you're gonna have to wait on ? There's a lot of arms (albeit average arms) in SF...

Madison Bumgarner
Jeff Samardzija
Dereck Rodriguez
Drew Pomeranz
Derek Holland
Andrew Suarez
Chris Stratton
Ty Blach
Tyler Beede

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1 hour ago, fletch44 said:

Is he actually in the rotation or someone you're gonna have to wait on ? There's a lot of arms (albeit average arms) in SF...

Madison Bumgarner
Jeff Samardzija
Dereck Rodriguez
Drew Pomeranz
Derek Holland
Andrew Suarez
Chris Stratton
Ty Blach
Tyler Beede

Nothing settled at this point, but Beede is free at his current price. I grabbed him as my penultimate pick - 40 man rosters though.

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Thoughts on Lourdes Gurriel Jr? He's going laaaaaaaate. Should play every day and has some good pop with a decent avg

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3 hours ago, fletch44 said:

Is he actually in the rotation or someone you're gonna have to wait on ? There's a lot of arms (albeit average arms) in SF...

Madison Bumgarner
Jeff Samardzija
Dereck Rodriguez
Drew Pomeranz
Derek Holland
Andrew Suarez
Chris Stratton
Ty Blach
Tyler Beede

Lots of teams have a lot of arms if those are the kinda guys you think block someone. Guys like Pomeranz, Holland, Stratton and Suarez aren't going to block a guy like Beede if he's dealing. 

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3 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Anybody liking Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, and Franmil Reyes for late power? Grichuk might get everyday AB's if he stays healthy so could be a very cheap 25+ homers

Yes, like Grichuk for late power. Love Franmil, but abundant starts is no sure thing. My gut says buy, but my brain wants me to be a skeptic.

3 minutes ago, street sharks said:

Thoughts on Lourdes Gurriel Jr? He's going laaaaaaaate. Should play every day and has some good pop with a decent avg

Most def like Lourdes as a late near-free play.

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9 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

Lots of teams have a lot of arms if those are the kinda guys you think block someone. Guys like Pomeranz, Holland, Stratton and Suarez aren't going to block a guy like Beede if he's dealing. 

Great, tell that to Bochy. Just trying to find out whether he's starting the year in the rotation. I am eyeing him in a deep league but probably not willing to wait an indeterminate amount of time for him to get his shot.

This is the most relevant info I could find. From March 9th....

https://www.sfchronicle.com/giants/article/Giants-Dereck-Rodriguez-he-s-part-of-13676452.php

“Right now, he’s (Rodriguez) part of this rotation, that’s where he stands,” manager Bruce Bochy said. “He’s throwing the ball well.”

With Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija in the fold, along with lefties Drew Pomeranz and Derek Holland, it would seem the five-man rotation is set, but Bochy said no final decisions have been made.

Also in the conversation: Andrew Suarez, Chris Stratton and Tyler Beede. The Giants also need a long reliever.
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Pablo Lopez- throwing much harder and breaking stuff has ticked up across the board.

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2 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Pablo Lopez- throwing much harder and breaking stuff has ticked up across the board.

Picked him up in my 24 team dynasty league

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11 minutes ago, Steve O said:

Picked him up in my 24 team dynasty league

Yeah I see a bunch of deep league value in this MIA staff...Lopez, Caleb Smith and Trevor Richards can deliver solid profit.

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Super deep dive, but I nabbed Chris Owings in my 20 teamer with deep bench. I think he will get eligibility at a bunch of positions for KC and play 5 games a week (maybe not initially though). Almost 40 ABs this ST and hitting .368 with 8 2B and 2 HR (better than struggling) and he always chips in steals.

Also keeping an early eye on rule5 pick in BAL, Drew Jackson. SS by trade but has ability to play all over INF and entire OF too. At AA for LAD last year he hit 15 HR and stole 22. In 38 ST ABs he's held his own with a .368 BA and theoretically there should be playing time up for grabs in BAL.

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Ramos is going in rounds 15+. I think he's this year's Realmuto. Muto will be the #1 catcher, but I bet he ends up top 3.

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What about rostering Gomes and Suzuki - late draft or waiver pick-ups that could give you top 5 catcher output - barring injury you're guaranteed a full schedule of starts and could get 25HR, 80 RBI, 260BA, 730 OPS.  Given the time share neither are rosterable alone though put up solid enough numbers when they play, but because of the time share both come cheap as hell and combined give you way above draft level output. 

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Just now, Baseball Jonze said:

What about rostering Gomes and Suzuki - late draft or waiver pick-ups that could give you top 5 catcher output - barring injury you're guaranteed a full schedule of starts and could get 25HR, 80 RBI, 260BA, 730 OPS.  Given the time share neither are rosterable alone though put up solid enough numbers when they play, but because of the time share both come cheap as hell and combined give you way above draft level output. 

Yeah I had that for awhile with Ramos/Alfaro last year when Ramos went to Philly.  It was nice to be guaranteed a starting pitcher every day except travel days.

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Eduardo Escobar - very unsexy pick but you can get him super late and he’s going to destroy his ADP, solid starter with 3B and SS eligibility.

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Posted (edited)

I really like Brandon Woodruff. If he somehow wins a rotation spot, look out! Can be a very productive starter this year. 

Also interested in Domingo German.

Edited by Miketrout009
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Reynaldo Lopez: his k/9 is going to jump up 2 full k's, maybe even 3. Get him.

Matt Strahm: 4 quality offerings

Julio Urias: innings cap but the innings he'll give you be top 20 SP variety

Michael Pineda: it was not long ago that Pineda was a great pitcher, just had gopheritis on the Yanks. Now he's a Twin in a joke of a division

Jesus Luzardo: electric stuff. Big park, good team, what's not to like?

Joe Musgrove: division is scary but you gotta trust a guy that has a k-bb% close to 20%

 

And there you have it. A complete staff outside of the first tend rounds. Just pick a couple guys here to round out your staff.

PS: Pivetta IS this year's Robbie Ray. His floor is 200 k's. I hate how straight his fastball is. If he throws his curveball more, a lot more, he's in for a special year

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Voit ADP 199 - ridiculous bargain there. Could bat cleanup for the yankees.

Ryan McMahon - he's on waivers and is having a monster spring.

Luzardo - people know about him now, so maybe not as much of a bargain.

Domingo Santana - talked about him before, he's got it all, power, speed, OBP, decent average.

Ramon Laureano - power speed combo

Carlos Martinez - probably gonna close for the Cards when he comes back.

Garrett Hampson - ridiculous speed.

 

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15 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

What about rostering Gomes and Suzuki - late draft or waiver pick-ups that could give you top 5 catcher output - barring injury you're guaranteed a full schedule of starts and could get 25HR, 80 RBI, 260BA, 730 OPS.  Given the time share neither are rosterable alone though put up solid enough numbers when they play, but because of the time share both come cheap as hell and combined give you way above draft level output. 

doing this in best ball. 

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