Dirty Little Birdie

2019 Sleepers / Value Picks

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A ridiculously deep sleeper right now could be Rox catcher "prospect" Tom Murphy, who is out of options and thus has to be carried by the Rox or waived.  Wolters has minor league options remaining - so the easy fix would seem to be Murphy gets a final look in Colorado, splitting time with Iannetta while Wolters head to AAA to start the season. 

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2 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

A ridiculously deep sleeper right now could be Rox catcher "prospect" Tom Murphy, who is out of options and thus has to be carried by the Rox or waived.  Wolters has minor league options remaining - so the easy fix would seem to be Murphy gets a final look in Colorado, splitting time with Iannetta while Wolters head to AAA to start the season. 

Will never happen. I am pretty certain I have read Wolters is an elite framer and generally regarded for his blocking and defense. I know for a fact that Marquez was crazy good when Wolters caught him. Murphy has a sliver of hope remaining but needs a new org-

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Paul DeJong is being drafted waaaaay past his "ADP" in my leagues, always taken in the 200+ range. He even went undrafted in my 14-team keeper league. If he hits early in the Cards' order I think he can easily return top 80 value - maybe 25 bombs, 170 R/RBI with decent average.

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Deep deep deep sleeper here - with Fulmer heading for TJ surgery, Spencer Turnbull steps into the Tigers rotation.

He's pitching right now vs the Phillies regulars! So far 3 IP, 2H, 0BB, 5K.
Before this start his spring was at 10 IP, 3ER and 8K:1BB

 

The Tigers beat writer was just on the Effectively Wild podcast singing his praises as someone who could really surprise this season.

In his brief showing in the majors last year, he pitched 16.1 IP with 15K : 4BB, with a 2.85 FIP and 3.37 xFIP.

Between literally 4 levels in the minors last year he combined for 133K in 119.1 IP with a 3.16 FIP and 3.45 xFIP in AA and a 1.38 FIP and 2.16 xFIP in AAA (small sample).

 

Edited by Hockey_Baseball
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20 minutes ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

Deep deep deep sleeper here - with Fulmer heading for TJ surgery, Spencer Turnbull steps into the Tigers rotation.

He's pitching right now vs the Phillies regulars! So far 3 IP, 2H, 0BB, 5K.
Before this start his spring was at 10 IP, 3ER and 8K:1BB

 

The Tigers beat writer was just on the Effectively Wild podcast singing his praises as someone who could really surprise this season.

In his brief showing in the majors last year, he pitched 16.1 IP with 15K : 4BB, with a 2.85 FIP and 3.37 xFIP.

Between literally 4 levels in the minors last year he combined for 133K in 119.1 IP with a 3.16 FIP and 3.45 xFIP in AA and a 1.38 FIP and 2.16 xFIP in AAA (small sample).

 

Good call here.  If it's not Spencer, keep an eye on whoever makes that 5th spot.  The Tigers have some good young arms coming up.

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Final line for Turnbull against the Philly regulars: 5 IP, 3H, 0 ER, 1BB, 7K

Updated spring line: 15 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 2BB, 15K

I think it's safe to say he's beaten out Norris for the #5 spot. If not, he'll be in the rotation very soon when one of Norris, Moore or Ross drops out.

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1 hour ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

Final line for Turnbull against the Philly regulars: 5 IP, 3H, 0 ER, 1BB, 7K

Updated spring line: 15 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 2BB, 15K

I think it's safe to say he's beaten out Norris for the #5 spot. If not, he'll be in the rotation very soon when one of Norris, Moore or Ross drops out.

Yes! I scooped him last year in my 20 teamer with deep benches and touted him in the minor forum on sleeper thread. He's got some stuff!

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On 3/19/2019 at 2:32 PM, ST. STEVEN said:

Will never happen. I am pretty certain I have read Wolters is an elite framer and generally regarded for his blocking and defense. I know for a fact that Marquez was crazy good when Wolters caught him. Murphy has a sliver of hope remaining but needs a new org-

 

Wolters is elite defensively, and with this young pitching staff he's (almost) worth the blank spot in the lineup.  Murphy is literal garbage behind the plate. 

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Guys, we need to talk about and rank these young SP's for redraft leagues.

 

WHOM out of this group will be good in redraft leagues this year? Rank 'em and talk about them 'cause I know very little of them other than their Buzz.

 

Corbin Burnes

Brandon Woodruff

Freddy Peralta

Brad Peacock

Reynaldo Lopez

Chris Paddack

Matt Strahm

Domingo German

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23 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

Guys, we need to talk about and rank these young SP's for redraft leagues.

 

 WHOM out of this group will be good in redraft leagues this year? Rank 'em and talk about them 'cause I know very little of them other than their Buzz.

  

Corbin Burnes

Brandon Woodruff

Freddy Peralta

Brad Peacock

Reynaldo Lopez

Chris Paddack

Matt Strahm

Domingo German

 

I've got Strahm, Peacock, Lopez, Paddack, Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes, and German. I think there's a big drop off after the top 4 guys on that list though.

 

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You guys like Peacock more than McHugh?  I just feel like Peacock has been more removed from being a starter than McHugh.  I went with McHugh for this reason but either could be good.  I guess Peacock has more upside.

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7 minutes ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

Loaisiga??

Seems like German has the job over him, no? 

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3 minutes ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

Loaisiga??

He's on a strict innings limit and will start the year in AAA.  If he gets the call then you ca definitely benefit for a couple months or so.  Not really a guy to stash, due to the innings limit, but just pick up when he gets called up.

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1 minute ago, CrypTviLL said:

Seems like German has the job over him, no? 

German and Cessa until CC gets back and then Gio Gonzalez possibly takes a spot.

Paxton

Tanaka

Happ

German

Cessa

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50 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

 

I've got Strahm, Peacock, Lopez, Paddack, Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes, and German. I think there's a big drop off after the top 4 guys on that list though.

 

A drop of after your top 4 or the top 4 on the quoted list?

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7 minutes ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

A drop of after your top 4 or the top 4 on the quoted list?

 

I meant it in reference to the list I made

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I haven't seen his name mentioned here, but I'm warming up to the idea of Brandon Belt being a good value. Prior to having his emergency appendectomy he was one of the most valuable first basemen in fantasy last year. He was on fire at the plate, slashing .307/.403/.547 with 11 homers and 31 RBI in 192 at-bats. Not including today's 4th home run, he is slashing .485/.553/.818 in 33 spring at bats. His NFBC ADP is currently 430 so he's basically free and makes for a good value pick in deeper leagues.

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14 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I haven't seen his name mentioned here, but I'm warming up to the idea of Brandon Belt being a good value. Prior to having his emergency appendectomy he was one of the most valuable first basemen in fantasy last year. He was on fire at the plate, slashing .307/.403/.547 with 11 homers and 31 RBI in 192 at-bats. Not including today's 4th home run, he is slashing .485/.553/.818 in 33 spring at bats. His NFBC ADP is currently 430 so he's basically free and makes for a good value pick in deeper leagues.

At his ADP he's basically free this year. Definitely a nice pickup in OBP leagues.

His batted ball data suggests that he'd hit 20+ HRs in pretty much any park except the one that he's in. If he were to get traded...

Edited by SpartyOn4
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Max Fried as the next man up in the Braves rotation, by virtue of everyone kind of falling out and him continuing to be solid, quietly. Good numbers last year and this spring, tall lefty, throws hard (if i'm remembering correctly from the digging i did last season). Should be solid.

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1 hour ago, meh2 said:

I haven't seen his name mentioned here, but I'm warming up to the idea of Brandon Belt being a good value. Prior to having his emergency appendectomy he was one of the most valuable first basemen in fantasy last year. He was on fire at the plate, slashing .307/.403/.547 with 11 homers and 31 RBI in 192 at-bats. Not including today's 4th home run, he is slashing .485/.553/.818 in 33 spring at bats. His NFBC ADP is currently 430 so he's basically free and makes for a good value pick in deeper leagues.

He’s like the Byron Buxton of middling 1B at this poInt.

Hes closing in on a decade of false hype.

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8 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

 

I've got Strahm, Peacock, Lopez, Paddack, Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes, and German. I think there's a big drop off after the top 4 guys on that list though.

 

 

I agree with the top 4 but would re-order them.

Paddack and Strahm #1 and #2 because of a) Park Effects, and b) hugely improved offense and defense behind them.

Lopez and Peacock #3 and #4. Lopez may be as talented as Paddack, but the team is so much worse. Peacock is hard for me to gauge. 30-year-old breakouts aren't very common. For every Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan there are a bunch of Len Barkers.

The dropoff after that is huge. The Brewers play in such an awful park and will have a very poor defense this year. I feel sorry for Orlando Arcia and Lorenzo Cain trying to catch 90% of the balls into play. Their last really good homegrown pitcher was Yovanni Gallardo. Nothing against those three pitchers, but they just face such an uphill battle to fantasy relevance.

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