Dirty Little Birdie

2019 Sleepers / Value Picks

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32 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

Not so sure about this.

He's in a platoon with McKinney. When Hernandez can turn his athleticism into quality defense. That's when he starts having an edge over him. Until then. Against RHP. He really doesnt.

 

 

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5 hours ago, GriffeySwag said:

Seranthony Domínguez

 

He's pretty much free. Can get him towards the end of drafts. To start the year, he'll give you pristine ratios, a good K rate, and sprinkle in some saves & wins(if you play that format).

Robertson will have a short leash, and if he falters. Boom, top 15 closer.

 

I think Robertson and Dominguez will share closer duties. I think both could go 15 saves + 15 holds this season. 

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11 minutes ago, weakkneeswilly said:

On Yahoo? 

Yes - he's already started two games at 3B in Japan, so 3 more and he gets Yahoo 3B eligibility.

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Wilmer Flores checks several sleeper/breakout boxes.

Prior success as a part time player. New Team with a Full Time spot locked up. 

27 years old. Good Home Ball park. He's not a bad name to call late in a mixed league draft. 

And he's a solid upside play in the 12-14 Round NL only draft.

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Why is Jon Lester going so late in drafts?? He had a really good year last year and received votes for the Cy Young Award. I got him so late its crazy.

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4 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Why is Jon Lester going so late in drafts?? He had a really good year last year and received votes for the Cy Young Award. I got him so late its crazy.

From Fangraphs:

Profile: It’s tough to get excited about the 35-year-old Lester. Of the 57 qualified starters, his K-BB% was the 11th lowest at 11.1% and has been on a four-year decline (19.4% to 19.3% to 18.2% to 15.7% to 11.2%). The cause of this past season’s drop was his strikeout rate dropping from 9.0 K/9 to 7.4 K/9 with all his pitches performing worse (Contact% up 5% points) while his velocity stayed flat. If it wasn’t for his 80% LOB% (8th highest) his 3.32 ERA would have been closer to his ERA estimators (~4.50). His batted ball profile has changed since his first full season with the Cubs with his GB% dropping each season (49% to 47% to 46% to 38%) with his home run rate, unsurprisingly, heading the other way (.7 HR/9 to 0.9 to 1.3 to 1.2). Recency bias may be strong with him and some owners may remember the 3.32 ERA and 18 Wins. They need to remember 13 Wins and 4.33 ERA from 2017. Why gamble on downward trending pitchers? (Jeff Zimmerman)

The Quick Opinion: Lester’s skills core skills have been trending down for years, but some luck has kept up his fantasy value. Don’t be the owner holding him when the bottom falls completely out.

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4 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Why is Jon Lester going so late in drafts?? He had a really good year last year and received votes for the Cy Young Award. I got him so late its crazy.

He had a 4.43 xfip. He had a 3.32 era. He has no history of being someone who consistently outperforms the advanced stats. He had a 1.31 WHIP. His velocity and swinging strike rate are continuing to trend downward. He's 35.

 

I'm not touching this guy even at the end of my drafts. Unless you're in an incredibly deep league I think you can find his replacement numbers by streaming.

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I've heard enough about "luck"  Luck goes both ways and its a non-factor.  its basically just saying his K/BB ratio was bad.  Getting yourself out of a jam and leaving guys on base isn't always "luck" just because you don't strike the batters out.

He's definitely not an elite pitcher anymore. He's mediocre.  But in a deep league like I'm in he can definitely be serviceable.  I'm not sure whether he continues to trend downward or maybe his "luck" will be even better this year.

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Revolved my draft around Weaver, Musgrove and Caleb Smith as back end rotation arms. Weaver seems to be an afterthought after the hype going into last season. Generally speaking Smith isn’t thought of at all. Able to nab him with my final pick🙂

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2 hours ago, MrBrown said:

I've heard enough about "luck"  Luck goes both ways and its a non-factor.  its basically just saying his K/BB ratio was bad.  Getting yourself out of a jam and leaving guys on base isn't always "luck" just because you don't strike the batters out.

He's definitely not an elite pitcher anymore. He's mediocre.  But in a deep league like I'm in he can definitely be serviceable.  I'm not sure whether he continues to trend downward or maybe his "luck" will be even better this year.

He has zero history of being able to be "lucky" compared to his peripherals. Some of it is from a good defense. But only some. Since you don't believe it's dumb luck, what skills do you believe he developed at the age of 34 that allowed him to perform at the level he did?

Edited by AnonymousRob

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55 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

He has zero history of being able to be "lucky" compared to his peripherals. Some of it is from a good defense. But only some. Since you don't believe it's dumb luck, what skills do you believe he developed at the age of 34 that allowed him to perform at the level he did?

He's still a reliable starter with respectable numbers/results.  His biggest issue has been his control as he's been walking too many. 

Edited by MrBrown

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5 hours ago, MrBrown said:

I've heard enough about "luck"  Luck goes both ways and its a non-factor.  its basically just saying his K/BB ratio was bad.  Getting yourself out of a jam and leaving guys on base isn't always "luck" just because you don't strike the batters out.

He's definitely not an elite pitcher anymore. He's mediocre.  But in a deep league like I'm in he can definitely be serviceable.  I'm not sure whether he continues to trend downward or maybe his "luck" will be even better this year.

 

There's a down side with being in deep leagues too. I've been in NL Leagues every season since 2005. The worst thing that can happen is you get stuck with a guy who sucks balls but because the league is so deep there aren't any replacements on waivers so you are forced to just trot them out there all summer long. How Deep is your league?

 

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On 3/22/2019 at 12:53 PM, Magoo said:

You’re right that Pujols will play at least at first. However. Bour’s got almost two months to have a clear every day job (maybe the occasional lefty sit) before Ohtani is back. 

If he’s hitting on pace for 30-100, then he’s not sitting. Even for Albert. 

Scoscia loved Albert. Now that he’s gone, that type of garbage loyalty managing isn’t happening anymore. 

 

Ausmus literally ruined the Tigers with garbage loyalty managing, so...

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8 hours ago, Cdub2k said:

 

There's a down side with being in deep leagues too. I've been in NL Leagues every season since 2005. The worst thing that can happen is you get stuck with a guy who sucks balls but because the league is so deep there aren't any replacements on waivers so you are forced to just trot them out there all summer long. How Deep is your league?

 

Not that deep. 12-teams..we start 9 pitchers and theres 8 bench spots.  I'll manage and can replace him if needed.  Wins are a big part so I have Arrieta too hoping he can regain something with the improved team and get a lot of wins.

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19 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

Kinsler looks like vintage kinsler right now

true looks great in a better lineup. Not being drafted at all.

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On 3/23/2019 at 10:32 AM, Slatykamora said:

He's in a platoon with McKinney. When Hernandez can turn his athleticism into quality defense. That's when he starts having an edge over him. Until then. Against RHP. He really doesnt.

 

 

I think that is old info you are reading.  I would be shocked if he isn't batting 3rd everyday.   

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He hasn't really beaten out McKinney, they should both be starting a lot but Teo really should taking starts from Morales at DH. I think if he hits, he should start most days... maybe it gets a bit more crowed at DH when Vladdy comes up or even Tellez later on.

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7 hours ago, MrBrown said:

Not that deep. 12-teams..we start 9 pitchers and theres 8 bench spots.  I'll manage and can replace him if needed.  Wins are a big part so I have Arrieta too hoping he can regain something with the improved team and get a lot of wins.

Ok thats not deep enough to get stuck with someone. In that case the risk isn't that big but if you hit you have yourself a useful piece. 

 

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On 3/23/2019 at 6:33 PM, Golden Spikes said:

Kinsler looks like vintage kinsler right now

 

Havent heard much about him this spring..thinking about dropping lowrie for Kinsler as a bench bat

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Thoughts on Brandon Drury?  3B for Blue Jays on opening day.  Vlad Jr. out of the picture for at least 2 weeks of the regular season with an oblique strain.  Drury is a proven big-leaguer with a track record.  Had a great spring.  Blue Jays got him and McKinney in return for JA Happ last year.  They'd for sure like to get the most out of that trade.

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