2ndCitySox

Yu Darvish 2019 Outlook

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He is what he is: a gold mine of Ks, but your ratios will be doused in kerosene.

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The previous 30 IP were excellent.  3.51 ERA, 30/9 K/BB, and a .89 whip.  Just when you thought he had turned the corner, he looks like crap again.

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On 6/28/2019 at 10:01 AM, dicka24 said:

The previous 30 IP were excellent.  3.51 ERA, 30/9 K/BB, and a .89 whip.  Just when you thought he had turned the corner, he looks like crap again.

He's a bum. Dropped in a 10 teamer for a pack of skittles.. But in all seriousness he's been a huge disappointment this year. Like the post above states, he gets some k's but everything else suffers. Try to package in a trade for some upside. The name increases his perceived value this year.

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I would be upset with him if every other arm on my team had not been pounded lately. Can't take it out on him. I'll be running him out there with confidence tomorrow night.

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8 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

I would be upset with him if every other arm on my team had not been pounded lately. Can't take it out on him. I'll be running him out there with confidence tomorrow night.

Confidence? Lol I don’t think he has ensured confidence once all year.

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10 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Confidence? Lol I don’t think he has ensured confidence once all year.

Definitely was being sarcastic there. And it looks like they pushed his start back to Wednesday. We'll be able to drink away the pain on the 4th.

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Yu will finish season strong.  Bank on it.  Command has come back.  Sequencing is still lacking.  With stuff + command it’s only a matter of time before he goes on a run.  I’ll take my chances with a Yu over all these rookie arms coming up.  Very high on second half prospects.  Maybe I’m only one left.  Don’t really care.  I’ve watched enough starts to believe in what I see.

Edited by Cmilne23
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A guy who can easily give 98-99 and yet refuses to throw that pitch more often in favor of an ineffective cutter?  He’s one adjustment away from being a dominant starter.  Give up at your own peril.

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Yeah, he gave up a couple taters yesterday, but no walks (!!), and was in line for the win before Kimbrel blew it. He's basically there. I had my finger on the "drop" button many times this year, but I'm fairly comfortable with him as my 4th starter with upside ROS.

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His control has been back all June.  The reason he has still been bad has been command.  He’s giving up at least 2 hr a game. Not sure he fixes that. 

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A ton of spin in this thread.  Yes, I agree there are a lot of indicators that we're in for some positive regression, but seven hits and 4 ER in a no-decision is still the same kind of mediocre stat line we've been getting all year from Yu.

Sometimes guys just don't put it together.  Given how weak pitching has been this year, I wouldn't recommend dropping in 12-teamers - unless you're pretty stacked, but I also wouldn't lose sleep over dropping.  

Meh.  I see a SP 5/6 ROS.  So maybe a tier above the streamers, and that's solely because of K potential.  I just think he's too inconsistent to have good ERA/WHIP.  

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8 hours ago, Stoper54 said:

His control has been back all June.  The reason he has still been bad has been command.  He’s giving up at least 2 hr a game. Not sure he fixes that. 

 

Giving up home runs to be a common problem among a lot of pitchers yet xFIP assumes pitchers can not control fly balls being home runs.  Never understood that.

Last night on Josh Bell's home run Caratini set up high and inside.  The pitch was thrown high and towards the outside heart of the plate.  Caratini was lunging to catch the pitch.  It wasn't close to where he wanted it.   I do not know how frequently that happens with him.  He might still have command issues.  All it takes is one of two mistake pitches to cost a pitcher the game.

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Interesting stats in a fantrax article about Darvish:

 

Yu Darvish had the strangest month of all… having an insanely low BABIP (.188) and strand rate (62.5 percent). He finished the month with a 4.91 ERA, 5.05 FIP, and 3.94 xFIP.

Edited by Sternes

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15 hours ago, Sternes said:

Interesting stats in a fantrax article about Darvish:

Yu Darvish had the strangest month of all… having an insanely low BABIP (.188) and strand rate (62.5 percent). He finished the month with a 4.91 ERA, 5.05 FIP, and 3.94 xFIP.

 

A lot of multi-home run games this month have been a big part of the discrepancy (9 HR in his last 5 starts - yikes).  Even if he's cut down on the walks, his command is still garbage.  His sequencing isn't helping either.   

Based on his recent performances, I assumed his HR/FB was very high, and i was right.  Currently he's second worst in the entire MLB in HR/FB (.351), right behind another guy with awful command, Dakota Hudson (he of a 1.53 WHIP).  

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22 hours ago, Sternes said:

Interesting stats in a fantrax article about Darvish:

 

Yu Darvish had the strangest month of all… having an insanely low BABIP (.188) and strand rate (62.5 percent). He finished the month with a 4.91 ERA, 5.05 FIP, and 3.94 xFIP.

Looking at stats like “BABIP” over a month is bound to confound you.

Edited by BMcP
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BABIP this, FIP that. The point is this guy hasn’t had many good starts. And his numbers for stats that matter in fantasy have been bad/mediocre and were at the half way point. And if you owned him last year as well like I did... you probably hate him by now.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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On 7/6/2019 at 8:41 AM, Sternes said:

Interesting stats in a fantrax article about Darvish:

 

Yu Darvish had the strangest month of all… having an insanely low BABIP (.188) and strand rate (62.5 percent). He finished the month with a 4.91 ERA, 5.05 FIP, and 3.94 xFIP.

Judging by the BABIP, he has been getting lucky. Which is scary cause he's already not very good. So once the BABIP normalizes, and if he continues to let up homeruns, he'll be closer to that 5.05 FIP and truthfully may be worse. 

Needs to somehow limit homeruns. If he fails to do that, I don't see things getting better. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, BMcP said:

Looking at stats like “BABIP” over a month is bound to confound you.

Perhaps not a great sign, though. His k-bb has been strong lately and it seems he could be ready to turn the corner, but then you see he's been a little lucky over his encouraging month. 

 

Of course, when the hits guys get happen to go over the fence, that may skew the stat a bit. 

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On 7/4/2019 at 1:57 AM, Cmilne23 said:

Yu will finish season strong.  Bank on it.  Command has come back.  Sequencing is still lacking.  With stuff + command it’s only a matter of time before he goes on a run.  I’ll take my chances with a Yu over all these rookie arms coming up.  Very high on second half prospects.  Maybe I’m only one left.  Don’t really care.  I’ve watched enough starts to believe in what I see.

This guys a genius...

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Why couldn’t he do this when I had him the first 6 weeks.

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I dropped him right before his run.Yu is a lesson for all of us to never drop someone with high level stuff that has a track record.  He was coming back from injury and it impacted his command but it’s back.

Edited by Stoper54

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I complained about him non stop and said I was going to drop him about 8 times but never had the balls to do it because his stuff is electric. Glad I held.

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