2ndCitySox

Yu Darvish 2019 Outlook

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On 8/4/2019 at 7:13 PM, supac720 said:

Still pretty bad in QS leagues. Even when he deals, pitch count usually too high and Maddon likes to go get him. Better in leagues that count Wins.

I think hes been good for QS leagues last 8 plus starts.  Had a couple clunkers but generally hit his 6 IP due to lower PC and better control than previously.

Aug 15 @Phi L, 7-5 - 7.0 0 0 10 0.00 0.57 1
Aug 9 @Cin L, 5-2 L 6.0 0 0 9 6.00 0.67 0
Aug 4 Mil W, 7-2 W 5.0 1 0 8 1.80 1.00 0
Jul 30 @StL L, 2-1 L 6.0 0 0 9 3.00 1.00 1
Jul 23 @SF L, 5-4 - 6.0 0 0 6 6.00 1.17 0
Jul 17 Cin W, 5-2 W 6.0 1 0 7 0.00 0.33 1
Jul 12 Pit W, 4-3 - 6.0 0 0 8 0.00 0.50 1
Jul 3 @Pit L, 6-5 - 6.2 0 0 6 5.40 1.05 0
Jun 26 Atl L, 5-3 L 5.0 0 0 8 9.00 1.40 0
Jun 21 NYM L, 5-4 - 6.0 0 0 6 6.00 1.00 0

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On 8/16/2019 at 2:20 AM, Cmilne23 said:

The revival was quicker than the fall, I guess.

love your sample size - have another drink buddy.

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Approaching ace territory.

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16 minutes ago, IDGAFOS said:

love your sample size - have another drink buddy.

Says the guy who argued that he “fell from grace” based on a half season sample size.  

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Victimized by 2019 MLB baseball last night. Homers on some good pitches as well as a few mistakes. He actually looked really good. His cutter was moving all over the place and generated a bunch of swinging strikes.

I saw a graphic mid game saying he was only the second pitcher since 1908 to go 4 straight starts with 8+ Ks and 0 walks. He actually made it 5 in a row in this start so he might be the first to ever do that idk. Either way it's pretty crazy considering how bad the walks were the first half of the season.

Edited by bradwatson
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He actually walked a batter in this one. So is he back to being a top 20 SP for next year guys? Not a spring chicken, but he's still throwing heat at his age.

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2 hours ago, UberRebel said:

He actually walked a batter in this one. So is he back to being a top 20 SP for next year guys? Not a spring chicken, but he's still throwing heat at his age.

I'm a fan of this dude so I may not be very objective. I personally believe he can be back a top 30 SP next season, and even a top 20 SP at his best. However, I wanna link this probability to his health. If Darvish doesn't get hurt at all, then I'm confident he's gonna work on his current season to get back the next season even stronger. But with a guy like him everything is about his health. Can he end this season without any injury and do a second season in a row without any injury? I highly doubt about it. Darvish is Darvish. I'm more confident about guys like Ryu, Kershaw, or Strasburg who are injury-prones too.

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So glad to see Darvish back to a dominant pitcher. The guy is just a master at his craft when he's on. Recently added a new pitch too -- knuckle curve that he attributes to learning from Kimbrel. It's nasty with a 12-6 break as opposed to his "normal" curve that has more of a slurve action.

I agree with @Just_A_PI, assuming health he is a top 30 SP next season. At his current form, he may be top 10 ROS. 

New curve:

 

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16 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

3rd rounder next year in my books given the current pitching environment 

Huge pass in the 3rd round for me. Age, injury history, inconsistent, and gets rocked too often. Hard pass at 3rd round for me.

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18 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

3rd rounder next year in my books given the current pitching environment 

lol 

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18 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

He's been a top 10 SP since he found that new curve 

his k/9 and bb/9 have been good, yes, but 11 ER in his past 4 starts doesn't sound 3rd roundish too me lol

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16 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

his k/9 and bb/9 have been good, yes, but 11 ER in his past 4 starts doesn't sound 3rd roundish too me lol

 

There seems to have been a massive adjustment post ASB that many aren't factoring in.

 

2nd half splits:

11.71 K/9, 0.49 BB/9, 2.93 ERA, 2.84 xFIP (4th), 32.2% K-BB% (3rd), .199 AVG, etc.

 

He's probably not safe enough for the 3rd round but I don't think it's as ridiculous as ya'll are making it sound, if he can sustain the success thru September. 

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Yep, he’s back. Amazing how he has reinvented himself at his age, but in a completely different way from Verlander

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6 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

Just incredible

 

Top 5 Sp for 2020 in my book

 

 

 

Dude has won only 6 games this year because he can't pitch with a lead and/or go deep into games. Top 5 SP???? You are over valuing him. He's a solid Top 30 SP nothing more or less

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On 8/28/2019 at 12:52 PM, Fenamo said:

 

There seems to have been a massive adjustment post ASB that many aren't factoring in.

 

2nd half splits:

11.71 K/9, 0.49 BB/9, 2.93 ERA, 2.84 xFIP (4th), 32.2% K-BB% (3rd), .199 AVG, etc.

 

He's probably not safe enough for the 3rd round but I don't think it's as ridiculous as ya'll are making it sound, if he can sustain the success thru September. 

yeah and thinking he's going to pitch exactly like his 2nd half splits from this year for the entire 2020 season is a bit naive. This is exactly how 2nd half stars get over hyped the following season. 

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3 things I believe about Yu next year:

 

1. He’ll continue to strike out a ton of batters next year. The new knuckle curve from Kimberly is lethal and his repertoire is the most diverse in the league

 

2. He won’t walk a ton of hitters. The control in the 2nd half is for real

 

3. He’ll still give up a lot of HRs. I think this is part mental and part command. It’ll hold him back from being truly elite

 

4. He’ll be a top 25-30ish SP. He’s still got some left in the tank. Forget about how bad he has been the last few years. He has figured out how to remain relevant at his age

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When healthy and with his mind dedicated to baseball only, Darvish is an ace. Maybe not the top of the top, but this guy is much better than a simple above average pitcher. Yet, I do repeat there are 2 conditions for Darvish to be considered as an ace. Firstly, he must healthy like he has been this year and secondly, he must be focused on baseball only like it seems to be the case so far this season. Otherwise, he'll go back to a simple above average pitcher who can pitch like a true ace and then pitch like a random pitcher.

Yes, I understand some people are worried about the fact he gives up too many HR to be considered as an elite ace, but there are quite few pitchers and some of them are elite too who have been struggling with HR, especially this season. Just look at how many random batters have broken out their HR line. Darvish isn't unique for this part. And it's his first season since 2013 where he has been able to pitch over 160 IP (and so to start 30 games). A bit of tolerance is needed as this season is the reborn of Darvish. However, I do understand some people are doubtful about him. His past record doesn't speak for him, sure.

He's a top20-30 pitcher. He has the potential to be a top10-20 even, but Darvish is Darvish. He's more mature now and he seems to be in place with everything in his life and his mind, but once again Darvish is Darvish. I'm more confident about a dude like Kershaw. Even though Kershaw has lost velocity and quite few other things, I do know Kershaw has the mind of a true ace and the professionalism going with it to remain one. With Darvish it's not the case. This is why Darvish will never ever be more than a top20 pitcher at his best because throughout a full season he has never proven the opposite since his 2013 season with the Rangers. This season is more than great, but he has been a kind of ace only from the beginning of the 2nd half and as I said earlier, a real ace is throughout the season. Not half.

About the age, I personally don't believe it's something we have to worry about. How old is Verlander for example? Period. If Hamels was able to be a good if not an excellent pitcher before his recent struggles, there is no reason to believe it's impossible for Darvish because he's 33. Etc... So many examples. Nonsense for me to point at his age as a potential issue. 

Now for the nest season? Well, this season, Darvish was picked 138.4 ADP and 12.7 round pick in Yahoo Fantasy. According to how he has pitched since the 2nd half and based on the fact he has been able to pitch over 160 IP so far (a thing that didn't happen since 2013), I do believe he's gonna finish this season by leaving some warranties to be picked next season from the 6th round in most leagues. Although I like Darvish and what I've seen from him this season, I wouldn't pick him up before the 6th round to consider him as a potential steal or at worse to limit the issue if he would disappoint and come back to his old bad habit. If I have the choose, I still prefer to pick Kershaw or Strasburg before him although both are injury-prone, too. Darvish has the materials to be an ace but not the mind, and as a result I think it's risky to "waste" more than a 6th round pick for him. But for sure, he'll be picked much earlier than this season. I guess like Ryu after all.

   
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