taobball

Luis Castillo 2019 Outlook

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Wrote this on the Reds thread. Figured looking into his 2nd Half improvements would also be a nice way to start off his own thread. 

 

Just now, taobball said:

 

Castillo had a complete up and down year. Rotated Bad Months (7.85, 6.75, 5.57 ERAs in Apr, June, August) and Good Months (3.48, 2.25, 1.09 ERAs May, July, September). At the same time, a ton of encouraging signs in that 66.1 IP after the ASB that he was performing much better. 

 

I made my own split in Luis Castillo's Game Log, and am using these "First Half" "Second Half" Dates instead of using the ASB.  I wanted to use a larger second half than the 66.1 IP because I want my sample of improvement to be as large as possible, even if his last 66.1 IP were even a bit better. -- 

 

(First Half: Beg. Season - June 9th Start | Second Half: June 16th Start - End Season) 

 

First Half: 

73 IP

5.79 ERA

9.1 K/9, 23.4% K%

3.6 BB/9, 9.2% BB%

2.6 K/BB, 14.2% K-BB%

1.8 HR/9

1.42 WHIP

.303 BABIP

45% GB%

 

Second Half: 

96.2 IP

3.17 ERA

8.5 K/9, 23.2% K%

1.9 BB/9, 5.1% BB%

4.5 K/BB, 18.1% K-BB%

1.2 HR/9

1.07 WHIP

.266 BABIP

46.5% GB%

 

Biggest thing to me is that jump from 2.6 K/BB to 4.5 K/BB. In terms of 2018 Qualified Pitchers, Castillo's 2.6 K/BB would be roughly 40th out of 57 Qualified Pitchers. The 4.5 number would be roughly 10th out of 57 Qualified. That's a pretty significant improvement. And just using the individual metrics, Castillo did make a pretty significant drop in BB%, but even though his K/9 dropped, his K%'s were almost identical.

 

I don't expect him to sustain his WHIP at 1.07, and I don't expect the BABIP to stay at .266. But with the reduced BBs, I do think it could be quite a bit lower. And while the HR's could be luck, it is encouraging that when the Control got better, his ability to avoid the long ball got better as well. 

 

3-Pitch Pitcher (End of Season Balance: 54% Fastballs, 19% Sliders, 27% Change-Up)

High Whiffs on Offspeed (17.73% Slider, 24.31% Change-Up) 

 

Pretty encouraging IMO.

 

Bad park, but an improving team. If they don't bring in a CF I might be a bit concerned with the OF defense unless they plan to play Schebler everyday V. RHP in CF, or if they're luck with a defensive experiment working in CF. 

 

I don't think you can have full confidence even in improvements because of his Up & Down career so far, but certainly highly encouraging. 

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12 hours ago, taobball said:

Wrote this on the Reds thread. Figured looking into his 2nd Half improvements would also be a nice way to start off his own thread. 

 

 

Bad park, but an improving team. If they don't bring in a CF I might be a bit concerned with the OF defense unless they plan to play Schebler everyday V. RHP in CF, or if they're luck with a defensive experiment working in CF. 

 

I don't think you can have full confidence even in improvements because of his Up & Down career so far, but certainly highly encouraging. 

He was a trendy breakout candidate last year, was probably overdrafted a bit and in a lot of leagues was likely dumped by June only to seem to find things and closed out the season pitching the way many thought he would all year.  His numbers last year were simply at times he was getting hit harder than he did in 2017, his Hard Contact rate was up almost 10%.  His FB/HR was about same as the year before, difference was more fly balls and harder contact.  

 

I am somewhat bullish on Red pitchers this year, I like the fact they were able to lure Brewers pitching coach Derek Johnson to take the same role with them, from what I have read he was one of the better ones in the league.   The biggest challenge I think as draft season gets closer is that I think he will be a riser when it comes to ADP in terms of early mocks (although he is not going as low at this point as I thought he might)  Especially in drafts where people will want to make sure they get him.  

 

 

Edited by parrothead
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Some great stuff here by tao and parrothead.

Derek Johnson is a very good coach and will help tremendously imo. Castillo was just too trendy last year and so many owners got frustrated by his early season struggles that I think he will come at a great value this year. Imo he just needs to refine the SL and use it more to take that next step toward FOR status--or maybe he can find that sinker that basically went MIA last year. I found this little nugget on ESPN today (article he lead-off about guys that could earn 'ace cards' :

"It would be easy enough to say he had a big second half. In truth, he had a big final five months after a frustrating April. From May 2 on, Castillo struck out a batter an inning, and he had the same xFIP as Syndergaard. An excellent changeup gives him what he needs against left-handed hitters. It's simply going to come down to fastball command. If Castillo can tap back into the sinker he threw in 2017, it'll be lights out for opponents. They don't make starters much more intriguing."

Edited by ST. STEVEN
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I'm having a hard time finding up to date ADPs on mobile right now, but best I can tell on ESPN and Yahoo there seems to be a decent discrepancy in price.  ESPN he's listed as rising at 110 a pretty crowded cluster of guys like Wheeler, Marquez, Tanaka, Ray, and Mikolas which makes for an interesting decision. Yahoo seems to have him closer to 140 near guys like Happ, Hill, Darvish and Pivetta which would make him a fantastic target IMO. 

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I was looking to jump on this train in H2H and then saw this. I'll break it down 1st half and 2nd half since everyone says he got his act together. If he can't improve and figure out a way to get lefties out, then the scouts (Law, Longenhagen and their contacts) were right, bullpen arm.

 

Verse right handed hitters:
3-31-18 to 6-27-18: 45.2 IP - .243 AVG/.304 OBP/.727 OPS
7-02-18 to 9-21-18: 45.1 IP - .152 AVG/.189 OBP/.428 OPS

Verse left handed hitters:
3-31-18 to 6-27-18: 42.0 IP - .282 AVG/.358 OBP/.891 OPS
7-02-18 to 9-21-18: 36.2 IP - .289 AVG/.344 OBP/.871 OPS

 

 

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Left Hander's have a career .190 BA and .342 Slugging against his Change up. There is a difference between a player who simply does not have the means to get lefties out. Vs one who needs to iron out flaws in his approach.  

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/29/18159811/cincinnati-reds-luis-castillo-changeup-release-point

 

His release point on his change vs fastball is not mimicking each-other perfectly vs LHH. So its easy for southpaws to sit dead red on him. There is also a sequencing and pitch location issue here. 

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora
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Anyone see his outing today? Getting shelled in ST is ok, right?

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When he finds a consistent curveball I will be interested.  

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On 3/2/2019 at 11:14 PM, B&F said:

When he finds a consistent curveball I will be interested.  

 

Why on earth does he need to throw a Curveball? 

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Is FantasyPros off their rocker or is his ADP really 280? That's absurdist to me. I'll take a guy who was good for 90+ Innings at the end of last year over the gluttony of pitchers going above him who have never been good in their entire careers *cough* bieber, pivetta *cough*. Elite Whiff%, might have turned a corner last year, and I don't even have to give a s--- because no one wants him anywhere near where I do? 

 

Fine, twist my arm why don't you. 

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280? Where the heck are you seeing that? I see the composite ADP on fantasy pro's 124. In-between Hendricks and Tanaka.

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5 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

280? Where the heck are you seeing that? I see the composite ADP on fantasy pro's 124. In-between Hendricks and Tanaka.

 

Yeah I have no clue. I didn't check it again tihs morning, but I checked it three times last night and it was there. Either I had a source mistake, or there was some kind've mix-up on their end temporarily. He's back there for me now. 

 

B/c I'm working on SP ranks, and I DUG for him last night and was clueless. 

Edited by taobball

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Yeah I have no clue. I didn't check it again tihs morning, but I checked it three times last night and it was there. Either I had a source mistake, or there was some kind've mix-up on their end temporarily. He's back there for me now. 

 

B/c I'm working on SP ranks, and I DUG for him last night and was clueless. 

 

8 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

280? Where the heck are you seeing that? I see the composite ADP on fantasy pro's 124. In-between Hendricks and Tanaka.

 

I just used the Internet Wayback Machine to look it up. Fantrax data was entered, and for some reason they had him slotted with an "811" next to his name, which severely changed his averages, but I am not crazy, they've just fixed it from last night. 

Edited by taobball

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My man is getting WRECKED in Spring Training.  Has anyone watched his games?  Is he tinkering with new pitches or does he just look lost out there?  What's the current concern level?

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pitcherlist has this to say on Castillo.

https://www.pitcherlist.com/the-list-3-13-the-top-100-starting-pitchers-for-2019-mid-march-update/

Quote

I elected to drop Luis Castillo slightly as I’m growing a bit wary of his ability to locate with his fastball. His mechanics don’t speak to precision, as he slings the ball at a lower arm-angle and I’ve found myself going with Marquez before Castillo—or even holding off on drafting Luis altogether.

 

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IMO Consistency issues are going to be prevalent but at the same time not many surefire starting SP's at his range have the upside- reds are getting better, and hes still very young.

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Something I don't see mentioned in this thread, but this dude falls apart when he allows runners on base. At least he did for a good portion of last season. Someone else can draft him, but I'll probably be looking to buy cheap for the second half

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I hope other have doubts too because I'd love to own him in all my dynasties and not just one.

Young starters are notorious the first couple of years usually.  But they learn and grow very often.

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1 hour ago, TheGreatest42 said:

What's a reasonable projection for the season?

I’ll go with 165 IP 180 K with a 3,72 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP

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Great game from this kid today, unfortunately they wouldn’t let him get one more out after just giving up a single and the bullpen promptly blows the game. However he looked very dominant and should be in for a great year 

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His change-up is so nasty. Hopefully he'll be able to command his fastball better this year.

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Not liking the BBs today. He's gonna K a lot of people, we already know that. But it's about consistent command and control, and not giving up bombs.

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