BrianM

What Did You Learn/What Will You Do Differently in '19?

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On 12/26/2018 at 9:33 PM, Corleone said:

 

Thanks and that's much appreciated as well.

I can understand your points about Ertz and Kelce. And to add an additional point for Ertz specifically, his teammate and fellow TE Goedert will likely get additional targets as a second-year player, so that's a negative there. A few counterpoints to the concerns though, that keep both Kelce and Ertz in the conversation as a high draft pick (via auction or snake)...

--Kelce has been 17th (2017) and 14th (2018) amongst RB/WR/TE the past two years. So even as a record-breaker this year, he was elite last season too.

--Kelce produced last year with Alex Smith, and was even better with Mahomes. With a full season under his belt, the sky is the limit for Mahomes.

--Ertz has at least 106 targets the last 4 seasons. And being 36th and 15th amongst RB/WR/TE the last two years, he also has produced in a big way.

--In 1 point PPR, the last TE who played most of the season and averaged at least 10 PPG is Austin Hooper. Hooper was the #9 TE in 2018 with 10.09 PPG. Kelce scored 19.46 and Ertz scored 18.72. So both were well over 8 points better than the #9 TE...and Hooper was a guy who was completely up and down...and it gets even worse after him to boot. Even if you go up to the #5 TE spot, you have Jared Cook at 12.95. So that's a 5 to 6.5 PPG advantage than a Top 5 TE. 

--2017 it was a similar story. Kelce had a 15.97 and Ertz a 14.67. So they both were roughly 4 points better in 2018. Even if they were to drop back to 2017 levels, that still puts them comfortably at the #2 or #3 TE level...and they are still several PPG better than later options as well.

--So overall with both Kelce and Ertz, at best case you have someone who can compete with top-end RB's and WR's, while blowing away other TE's. And worse case if healthy is that they're still amongst the top trio of TE's, giving you a significant positional advantage over fellow owners. 

 

 

I have the tenth pick in a ten team flex league next year.  

 

I’m seriously considering going Ertz/Kelce   

 

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9 minutes ago, poofinger said:

 

I have the tenth pick in a ten team flex league next year.  

 

I’m seriously considering going Ertz/Kelce   

 

Horrible move. Your 2nd Te actually 2nd player has to flex.

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4 minutes ago, Tread_Lightly said:

Horrible move. Your 2nd Te actually 2nd player has to flex.

 

What’s so bad about that?   

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5 minutes ago, poofinger said:

 

What’s so bad about that?   

Your RBs gonna stink and no positional advantage TE Flex. Then again I only play redraft auction.

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34 minutes ago, poofinger said:

I went WR WR QB this year and ended up with 

 

White

Chubb

Carson

Mack

 

this is what we like to call good luck and fortune which is somewhat required going WR-WR-QB.  White only dominated bc of injuries to Rex-Hill-Michel, Chubb only got a chance bc of Hyde getting traded, Carson became focus of retooled offense 4 weeks in and Mack was basically a wild card, he either was the bellcow for Colts or committee trash.   Well done though worked out for you. 

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1 hour ago, poofinger said:

I went WR WR QB this year and ended up with 

 

White

Chubb

Carson

Mack

Thats some good luck there.

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20 minutes ago, poofinger said:

 

 

I like to call it skill. 🤪

Ok Mr Skill, then tell us who your 3rd round QB was? :)

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25 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Ok Mr Skill, then tell us who your 3rd round QB was? :)

 

Mahomes!

 

i mean.  

 

Rodgers

 

Edited by poofinger
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A couple rules I always have:

 

DND a player with a major injury history AND DND a player coming off a season ending injury, (ACL, etc). Example for 2019: hunter Henry , yes I know he’s back. McKinnon, AJG, skittle man, guice #1 DND,  Freeman, Baldwin, Jimmy g DND #2

 

Shy away from rbs on crappy teams

 

Know what coaches speak the truth in off season/ pre season. I like Cohen before but didn’t pick him. Nagy loved the guy all off season. Should have known something was up as he hardly played in the preseason. 

 

You will be forced to make trades, your draft hardly pans out especially in 14+ teamers. I won my league for the second year in a row but made a lot of trades. Got lucky playoff time. 

 

Start the studs. Always been a big fan of it if they are healthy. This fantasy playoff season was insane and won’t be duplicated again imo. So many duds

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I caught some very bad luck at the end of the season with injuries and issues in 2 leagues. 

 

Like Packer said, some of it will never be replicated again. But I have learned in towards week 10, you need to start to set up handcuffs in case of injuries, and probably don't need to take as many fliers down the stretch if you insured your team. Thats where I got beat up. 

 

I had a dominate #1 team going into the playoffs. Kareem Hunt news broke, he was on the #2 team. I grabbed Ware off the wire .3 seconds after the news broke. In doing so I dropped Jaylen Samuels instead of a guy like Larry Fitz who was my WR6. Then Ware got hurt. Lost in the Semi's to the 4 seed, by 2 points. He had Samuels at TE, I had two in game injuries to Julio and Boyd.

 

That one will sting for a while, but learned a lesson from it. If your not going to play a guy on your roster, he can be cut for a handcuff.  

Edited by mpat15

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On 12/29/2018 at 3:55 PM, joshua18 said:

 

@RMJ_12 Time to pay up, sucka!

 

How long do I have to do this?

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On 12/27/2018 at 6:11 AM, kidsgotsoul said:

Punt RBs that emerged mid-season in the previous season. Guys like Collins, Drake and Burkhead were a nightmare for owners. I can easily see guys like Lindsay, Edwards or Adams being drafted in the third round next year and completely screwing managers over as their role is completely unpredictable.

 

This. Out of nowhere RBs are the most at risk to bust the following season. I’ve akways stayed away. It happens all the time (see: Zac Stacy).

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3 hours ago, PackerBacker555 said:

A couple rules I always have:

 

Shy away from rbs on crappy teams

 

 

Barkley is arguably the #1 draft pick next year, and the Giants suck balls.

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26 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Barkley is arguably the #1 draft pick next year, and the Giants suck balls.

DJ was in the #1 draft pick discussion this year, and the Cardinals sucked massive balls.

Edit: to clarify, I think Barkley deserves to be a top draft pick, and we all agree on the Giants. But I think it is important to realise that PackerBacker does have a point. There is a risk to picking Barkley that you don't have with Gurley/Kamara (or even Zeke).

Edited by Boudewijn

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5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

DJ was in the #1 draft pick discussion this year, and the Cardinals sucked massive balls.

Edit: to clarify, I think Barkley deserves to be a top draft pick, and we all agree on the Giants. But I think it is important to realise that PackerBacker does have a point. There is a risk to picking Barkley that you don't have with Gurley/Kamara (or even Zeke).

Big difference was the Giants continued to force ball to Saquon in the passing game. Stupid Cardinal OC's didn't most of the season. Plus being on the field when behind helps pop big running plays as defense puts in prevent type defense vs the pass.Edmonds played a lot when Ariz got behind, Barkley never got subbed for unless catching a breather.  Different coordinators and DJ is a solid bounce back candidate. He did better when Leftwich took over playcalling but headcoach was a dufus defensive coach who preferred a dumbed down offense . In his defense Rosen the Rookie was in over his head. A healthy Sam Bradford would've come around but it wasn't meant to be

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7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

DJ was in the #1 draft pick discussion this year, and the Cardinals sucked massive balls.

Edit: to clarify, I think Barkley deserves to be a top draft pick, and we all agree on the Giants. But I think it is important to realise that PackerBacker does have a point. There is a risk to picking Barkley that you don't have with Gurley/Kamara (or even Zeke).

 

I think there is definitely a point being made on RBs on bad teams typically underperform.  The difference this year, and in general, is that receptions are the ultimate equalizer.  The premium pass catching backs (Saquon/CMC/Kamara) are recession-proof.  Those guys are on a different level fantasy-wise.  But RBs that rely on both carries and TD, those should be downgraded significantly if you do not think the team will compete all year.  Guys that fit this description for next year could be Chubb, Fournette, Henry, Mixon, Carson, etc. if you think those teams will regress.  As for David Johnson, I think he's a huge bounce back candidate because they will undoubtedly hire an offensive mind to get him into space in the passing game since he is there only weapon.  As a team, they can't get worse, and barring injury this season was his floor which still ended up near top 10 in PPR.

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19 hours ago, Zak0221 said:

 

this is what we like to call good luck and fortune which is somewhat required going WR-WR-QB. 

...I noticed poo didn't list the wrs he picked 1-2.

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21 hours ago, poofinger said:

 

I have the tenth pick in a ten team flex league next year.  

 

I’m seriously considering going Ertz/Kelce   

 

 

21 hours ago, Tread_Lightly said:

Horrible move. Your 2nd Te actually 2nd player has to flex.

 

21 hours ago, poofinger said:

 

What’s so bad about that?   

 

RBs and WRs have higher upside. 

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21 hours ago, poofinger said:

 

I have the tenth pick in a ten team flex league next year.  

 

I’m seriously considering going Ertz/Kelce   

 

 

I like Kelce and Ertz as mentioned...but I wouldn't advise going for both of them in your position.

 

In an auction league, I think there's merit to it (and is one reason why I wish all drafts were auctions). But in a snake draft, I don't think you should do this. 

 

I can get behind you picking one of them (Kelce or Ertz) at 10/11. Odds are that you won't get either of them with your 3rd round pick (pick #30 overall). And I think that both of them are at enough of a positional advantage that it could be worth snagging one. But you have to get a RB/WR with the other 10/11 pick. 

 

Or how about a plot twist...if Mahomes is still there, take Mahomes AND Kelce. I know there are many around these Forums that would say that's a terrible idea (as some people hate taking QB's early, let alone TE's). But the PPG advantage that Mahomes has over other QB's, combined with the PPG advantage Kelce has over other TE's, can be quite an asset overall. Just my opinion though. 

 

(and this is all assuming that the elite RB's you expect to be gone by #10, are indeed gone)

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57 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

As for David Johnson, I think he's a huge bounce back candidate because they will undoubtedly hire an offensive mind to get him into space in the passing game since he is there only weapon.  As a team, they can't get worse, and barring injury this season was his floor which still ended up near top 10 in PPR.

 

Never underestimate the ability of any NFL team to not make an obviously smart decision.

 

The proof of this, of course, are previous dumb decisions.

 

Even if personnel changes occur, they don't guarantee improvement. We see this week after week, season after season.

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Seriously need to limit how many hyped player I draft.   Took Cooper and Gordon in two different leagues.  Both players who didn't do anything last season but were talked up as "serious potential to be a WR1".    And both were pretty much useless for half the year.   Probably would have been OK just to take one of them and use the other pick for someone safer.     I exacerbated the situation by taking Burton too high as well.   Another pre-season hype.  

 

My reasoning was that you have to take some chances to win a league.    But in hindsight, rolling the dice on three players in those earlier rounds was foolish. 

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