BrianM

What Did You Learn/What Will You Do Differently in '19?

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6 hours ago, devaster said:

RB depth is definitely always an issue. But I wouldn't say there is always a waiver wire WR to plug into your lineup in standard scoring leagues. The bust rate is much higher due to the lack of a PPR floor. That being said it is easier to find WR depth on the wire than RB depth.

 

One thing that stands out to me is that on a week-to-week basis, it's easier to pick up a fill-in WR than an RB.  You just pick a guy with a good matchup who's been getting targets and hope for the best.  There are random blowup games all the time out of WRs.  Whereas when you pick up a scrub RB who's only guaranteed 5-8 touches, you usually see a 2-3 point game.

 

But on a season-long basis, if you look at the top-24 finishers at WR, only a handful were either undrafted or could be claimed off waivers at some point during the season -- Lockett, Boyd, Golladay, Ridley, Williams.  And even most of those guys were drafted in most leagues.

 

Meanwhile it was possible to wait until the very last rounds (or after Week 1) and grab Conner, Lindsay, AP, Chubb, Carson, and Cohen.  Henry was dropped in my league a a couple weeks before the blow-up game, and Jones was dropped before he took over in GB.  The season-long top-24 RB list is littered with late round sleepers and waiver gems.  Most of these guys were every week starters after they took over their backfields, and that's not even counting the Damien Williams and CJA types who were only usable for two weeks but still delivered titles.

 

The lesson seems to be to stock up on WRs during the draft and ignore RB's in the middle rounds.  The elite RBs were almost all who we expected them to be, but this was a horrible year for the guys who were "supposed" to be RB2s.

Edited by eg4190
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24 minutes ago, eg4190 said:

The lesson seems to be to stock up on WRs during the draft and ignore RB's in the middle rounds. 

DIsclaimer: may not work for everybody. But yes, between say pick 100-150, you have more chance of picking up a valuable WR than RB, and I noticed the same with last year's data, which is why I stock up on RBs early (with some WR mixed in) and add more WR after pick 100. 

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I learned never ever trust Boswell, should've stuck with Hopkins. What a waste of a kicker on a great offense, Boswell to the pit of misery!

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Oh, another thing I forgot to add.  Trade patience.    I get very antsy when my team is hovering around .500 and i've made some bad trades, and some good ones, but usually hasty decisions either way.

 

This year, my best team had a huge hole at RB and had Brown and Adams at WR.   Naturally i get loads of offers.   Some people got close, but it was always "my 4th WR and 2nd RB (but I've got 4 decent ones) for Adams".    People were giving me non starters or easily replaceable players.  i was able to be patient because i was winning due to schedule luck.  A lot of people I know would've freaked out, worried about the playoffs, and they make the move.    What did I do instead?   At the deepest valley of his season, I got Derrick Henry from a guy who was benching him..........for Anthony Miller, who was at the peak of his best stretch.        Justin Jackson/Ekeler covered the other position while Sony Michel was hurt/struggling, and my studs won me my game.

 

Meanwhile, these other guys traded away their depth for guys like Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski, who hurt them.  Chris Carson and Nick Chubb were traded to barely afloat teams in the same situation.    Meanwhile, these teams lost players down the stretch and had ditched their good RB's (flex options or starters) to get a WR or TE that absolutely destroyed their playoff hopes.

 

Never trade a stud, unless its for a stud. 

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The biggest lesson I learned was that first analysts don't know much. Second, you have to create your own rankings. A lot of people where bitten by tight ends but I felt they were all going to high and I ended up with Kittle and Ebron. Which leads to my third point when teams  we are guessing what will happen and safer picks should be ranked higher. Once the season ends teams will change and players will start to get hyped based on what we think they will do and then some ranking will come out ranking them over player X that has a lot less risk.  In short my first five picks are going to be safe and boring. 

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8 hours ago, kidsgotsoul said:

Folks should also note that a lot of the high profile RBs this year stayed relatively healthy until the very end of the fantasy season. In most seasons we would see more waiver RBs rise to prominence earlier in the year. I bet we see a lot of managers go heavy RB in early rounds for 2019.

 

Also stay away from fraud workhorse RBs like Fournette in PPR formats. You want the guys who contribute in the passing game - Gordon, Barkley, Zeke, CMC, etc. Will largely depend on your draft position but I’ll fade RBs unless they have that receiving upside.

Yes Fournette is a fraud workhorse. I mean, he was on pace for over 300 touches and nearly 50 receptions but facts are stupid.

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Auction strategy here .   I always pay for the top rb and 2 WRs 1s.  Rest of the team is dice rolls . Always seems to work 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Yes Fournette is a fraud workhorse. I mean, he was on pace for over 300 touches and nearly 50 receptions but facts are stupid.

 

Fraud in the sense that he can't stay on the field. But if healthy, legit workhorse.

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

DIsclaimer: may not work for everybody. But yes, between say pick 100-150, you have more chance of picking up a valuable WR than RB, and I noticed the same with last year's data, which is why I stock up on RBs early (with some WR mixed in) and add more WR after pick 100. 

I almost always pick a QB in the 100-120 range. Which has been Rivers the last couple years and both Mahomes and Rivers this season. Cam was in that range in 2015 when he blew up for a career high in pass TD's. That is my favorite range to start targeting QB's.

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11 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Funny thing is 3 of those guys are guys I know I will target (Fournette, Johnson (assuming Wilks is gone), and Cook).

 

Great candidates for bounce back. I know I’ve been talking about taking more WRs early but starting the draft with CMC, Johnson, and Fournette. Oh my...

 

I’d probably give Cook a look. Not trusting Fournette though. Even with Wilks gone, I won’t trust the personnel on that offense unless they make some good hires and offseason pick ups.

 

Fournette and Cook probably still go in the 2nd no? DJ too? I’ll take a look at Cook in the 2nd and the other two if they are still there somehow in the 3rd.

 

But Id rather take Mixon or Lindsay. Possibly Chubb and Carson at whatever ADP they’d be at. This is all way too early though. 

 

I’d love CMC/Johnson/BPA WR

 

or CMC/BPA WR/Lindsay(10th overall PPR)

Edited by tpat30

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2018 is the year of my fantasy mortality realization. 

 

Forever, I had fooled myself into thinking that the outcome of a season was somehow in my hands. That If I could have just made one or two better picks, id have won it all. 

 

The truth is, after 15 years of playing fantasy, I’ve finally realized that it just doesn’t matter. There’s a futility to this hobby that exists in few others, where the best man rarely wins, and luck is paramount. Yet we invest so heavily into this game—why? 

 

2018 marks the end of fantasy sports for me. Season-long especially. With injury and arrests and god knows what else is in store—it’s a fools endeavor to keep winning 9-10 games a season, only to be ousted in the playoffs by the 6 seed who’s defense went off for 30 points, while you’re stud running back disappears. 

 

Aye—good luck to you all who continue to ram your heads into this hobby. It has given me tons of fun, but now—I see that time is best spent on hobbies that reward you based on what you put into them. 

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I learned that its best for business to be the last one to draft a QB in your league.

 

I learned that nearly every year, an RB1 emerges from the 10th round of the draft or later, and they are always in their 1st or 2nd year.

2014 - Jeremy Hill

2015 - Devonta Freeman

2017 - Alvin Kamara

2018 - James Conner

 

I learned that hyped WR pre-draft, projected to make the leap into WR1/WR2 status, nearly never pan out: Corey Davis, Marques Goodwin, Chris Hogan, Jamison Crowder, etc.

 

I learned that the concept of drafting a kicker last is foolish, and that the value of being able to plug in a starter for 13 weeks that will give you a consistent 2 or 3 point advantage on your opponent (like Justin Tucker) is more valuable, in my opinion, than most of the lottery tickets being drafted in the same 12th or 13th round ranges.

 

I learned that "pass the sticks" refer to the controller when playing Madden.

 

I learned its harder and harder to gain any type of competitive advantage in redraft leagues with all the media coverage of fantasy football these days EXCEPT the way the media whiffed on LeVeon Bell and doubled down 6 straight times during the regular season.

-Sincerely, James Conner owner

Edited by The_Truth_Returns
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Stick to your game plan. I went in planning to draft CMC in round 2, and then Luck and Kittle around round 9-10. Would have been money if I had gone with that.

 

Instead I took Jordan Howard in round 2 after reading the Nagy hype, Russell Wilson at the end of round 6 and Delanie Walker in the 8th. 

 

Lost out on Kittle to the Olsen owner on the wire and TE ****** me the rest of the season. Missed the playoffs for the first time in 8 years in my main money league.

 

I’m also staying away from older players. Got nothing out of Larry Fitz this year.

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1.  Take holdouts seriously

 

2.  There's no such thing as a sure thing.

 

3.  Get your guys.  After the draft ADP means NOTHING.

 

4.  Never handcuff at the draft unless you actually have a reason for it.  i.e. Le'veon Bell

 

5.  At least 50% of this game is luck, don't beat yourself up over it.

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9 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

1.  Take holdouts seriously

 

I am never drafting a player without a contract. I didn’t draft Bell but did have him as a keeper in one league. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RevisAteMyQB said:

2018 is the year of my fantasy mortality realization. 

 

Forever, I had fooled myself into thinking that the outcome of a season was somehow in my hands. That If I could have just made one or two better picks, id have won it all. 

 

The truth is, after 15 years of playing fantasy, I’ve finally realized that it just doesn’t matter. There’s a futility to this hobby that exists in few others, where the best man rarely wins, and luck is paramount. Yet we invest so heavily into this game—why? 

 

2018 marks the end of fantasy sports for me. Season-long especially. With injury and arrests and god knows what else is in store—it’s a fools endeavor to keep winning 9-10 games a season, only to be ousted in the playoffs by the 6 seed who’s defense went off for 30 points, while you’re stud running back disappears. 

 

Aye—good luck to you all who continue to ram your heads into this hobby. It has given me tons of fun, but now—I see that time is best spent on hobbies that reward you based on what you put into them. 

I learned that people who say stuff like this are back at it the following year.

 

 

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1 hour ago, RevisAteMyQB said:

2018 is the year of my fantasy mortality realization. 

 

Forever, I had fooled myself into thinking that the outcome of a season was somehow in my hands. That If I could have just made one or two better picks, id have won it all. 

 

The truth is, after 15 years of playing fantasy, I’ve finally realized that it just doesn’t matter. There’s a futility to this hobby that exists in few others, where the best man rarely wins, and luck is paramount. Yet we invest so heavily into this game—why? 

 

2018 marks the end of fantasy sports for me. Season-long especially. With injury and arrests and god knows what else is in store—it’s a fools endeavor to keep winning 9-10 games a season, only to be ousted in the playoffs by the 6 seed who’s defense went off for 30 points, while you’re stud running back disappears. 

 

Aye—good luck to you all who continue to ram your heads into this hobby. It has given me tons of fun, but now—I see that time is best spent on hobbies that reward you based on what you put into them. 

 

3zPe.gif

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1 hour ago, RevisAteMyQB said:

2018 is the year of my fantasy mortality realization. 

 

Forever, I had fooled myself into thinking that the outcome of a season was somehow in my hands. That If I could have just made one or two better picks, id have won it all. 

 

The truth is, after 15 years of playing fantasy, I’ve finally realized that it just doesn’t matter. There’s a futility to this hobby that exists in few others, where the best man rarely wins, and luck is paramount. Yet we invest so heavily into this game—why? 

 

2018 marks the end of fantasy sports for me. Season-long especially. With injury and arrests and god knows what else is in store—it’s a fools endeavor to keep winning 9-10 games a season, only to be ousted in the playoffs by the 6 seed who’s defense went off for 30 points, while you’re stud running back disappears. 

 

Aye—good luck to you all who continue to ram your heads into this hobby. It has given me tons of fun, but now—I see that time is best spent on hobbies that reward you based on what you put into them. 

 

I read this (at least the first couple paragraphs) with Rustin Cole's voice narrating it in my head.   

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The reality is each year is different. It was extremely obvious that going into this year a ton of RBs were insanely overrated. This year because of the flop there will likely be some very good value at RB. 

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Remember that you will (hopefully) hit on the WW so elite level talent across as many positions as possible early during your draft > RBs who have a short track record, WRs who 'could' break out, or whatever kind of uncertainty. IE Travis Kelce over Jordan Howard or Alex Collins, etc. Maybe a guy like Mahomes over your RB2 or WR2.

Edited by Ffguy0087

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2 hours ago, RevisAteMyQB said:

2018 marks the end of fantasy sports for me.

Quitting is for losers ;)

 

No seriously, you're not wrong - but see you next year. There are plenty people here who say the same every year, and rightly so, they mean it... But when the new season draws nigh, something starts to itch, an itch that needs to be scratched...

 

:)

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7 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Quitting is for losers ;)

 

No seriously, you're not wrong - but see you next year. There are plenty people here who say the same every year, and rightly so, they mean it... But when the new season draws nigh, something starts to itch, an itch that needs to be scratched...

 

:)

It’s the same people that give Gordon s--- for being an addict.

 

Heh...

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56 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

Just don’t draft a qb.  Complete waste of a position.  You can get qb production for free all throughout the year.  

I drafted Mahomes everywhere and he took us to 3 championship games in 4 leagues.

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7 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

I drafted Mahomes everywhere and he took us to 3 championship games in 4 leagues.

The Mahones owner in my league got him off the wire and didn’t make the playoffs.  What’s your point?

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