Corleone

Aaron Jones 2019 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, akooreman180 said:

Here’s the thing that people don’t pay attention to with the whole “terrible playcalling” thing. In the NFL, teams combine to throw it on the goal line probably close to a hundred times a year. The majority of the time, it’s not a pick, and no one says anything. If they do, they’re saying how that was such a good call to catch the defense off guard. Then people see one pick and act like it’s such a crazy decision to throw on the goal line.

99% of teams wouldn’t call pass plays 4 times in a row. That’s the difference. Most of the time they have at least one run play when it’s 1st and goal on the 1 yard line. If that run doesn’t work then they may pass it or vice versa. But 9/10 times their running the ball from the 1 yard line.

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3 minutes ago, akooreman180 said:

I’m going to disagree with this. Sure, they were 3-0, but it wasn’t because the offense was playing well. He said they need to get him the ball more to improve the offense, at least that’s how I read it. 

Why werent they playing well? They had a balanced attack they beat two tough teams in the Vikings and bears. Idk to me it seemed like he didn’t like the scheme more than anything.

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8 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

99% of teams wouldn’t call pass plays 4 times in a row. That’s the difference. Most of the time they have at least one run play when it’s 1st and goal on the 1 yard line. If that run doesn’t work then they may pass it or vice versa. But 9/10 times their running the ball from the 1 yard line.

Sure. In my post I’m referring to the interception, the four passes in a row is definitely inexcusable. I was more just talking about how people only make it out to be such a crazy thing to throw on the goal line when a pick happens, very similar to Seattle in Super Bowl 49. 

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7 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Why werent they playing well? They had a balanced attack they beat two tough teams in the Vikings and bears. Idk to me it seemed like he didn’t like the scheme more than anything.

That’s possible. However, I remember Rodgers saying that they needed to get Jones more touches last year so it seems unlikely he’s a stat padder. They won those first three games primarily because of their defense. Offense was struggling, even the coach said that. 

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8 hours ago, David Aames said:

Here is the thing you are not understanding. Jamaal Williams is there. Jamaal Williams will continue to split the touches with him, and based on the eye test, will probably out touch aaron jones from here on out. Jones is TD dependant for fantasy purposes. Against weaker defenses Jamaal Williams will be more effective. GB realized what we did not realize awhile ago. There is no difference in effectiveness between the two rbs. So as each week passes, Jamaal Williams will probably end up with more touches the rest of the season since he is the guy they trust in passing situations, and im sure he will steal some goal line looks as well.

 

STOP your scaring me

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2 hours ago, philnutz said:

It's getting hard for me to trust Jones as my rb#2, first 2 games he's lead back by a good %, 3rd game he's out snapped and out touched by Williams, 4th game, Williams starts,

 

this gives me chills

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Don't think you have to run the ball up the middle 4 times in a row from the 1 yard line (seen that not work plenty of times) BUT it was really telling that they didn't even try any sort of run once (by any player) indicating that the team doesn't have much faith in Jones or its run game at all. Next drive they get a nice run with Jones and pass again from the 2 yard line and get intercepted. Is Jones just a guy that gets opportunity b/c there isn't anyone else so he can put up stats sometimes but isn't really good/overrated?

 

 

Edited by jrb724

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31 minutes ago, jrb724 said:

Don't think you have to run the ball up the middle 4 times in a row from the 1 yard line (seen that not work plenty of times) BUT it was really telling that they didn't even try any sort of run once (by any player) indicating that the team doesn't have much faith in Jones or its run game at all. Next drive they get a nice run with Jones and pass again from the 2 yard line and get intercepted. Is Jones just a guy that gets opportunity b/c there isn't anyone else so he can put up stats sometimes but isn't really good/overrated?

 

 

Jones has multiple goal line TDs this season including one last night in the first quarter. I think the play calling at the end was just LaFleur getting too cute.

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22 minutes ago, drisser said:

Jones has multiple goal line TDs this season including one last night in the first quarter. I think the play calling at the end was just LaFleur Rodgers getting too cute.

ftfy

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If he’s still struggling after these matchups, you guys have reason to talk about how he hasn’t been an effective running back. Until then, let’s hold off on the panic about his low ypc when he’s faced 3 elite run defenses and one good one. 

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Yeah, I'm surprised people have so easily forgotten about the Packers murders row of defenses to start this season. If you told me that Aaron Jones would finish these first 4 weeks averaging 12.7 fantasy points a game in non-PPR, I would of never believed you. If anything, he's shown me that I shouldn't be afraid to start him as an RB2/Flex during the fantasy playoffs when his match-ups get tough again because he's so electric at the goal line. (Not sure what that play-calling was Thursday) 

 

Also, when it comes to usage, Jones needs Jamaal Williams to be worked in.. That 23 carry, 4 rec game he had was cool and all, but consistent usage like that will just get him injured. Some guys are just not built for that type of workload and his first couple of years show he's one of them. People keep trying to turn it into a Jones OR Williams question, but this is a less talented version of Kamara-Ingram, they'll both be used this year. Jones is Kamara, and Williams is Ingram. People freaked out after last week because Williams got so many touches, but if you watched that game he deserved them. He was running strong in the rain, while Jones was having a little trouble finding his footing. Yet Jones still received the valuable goal line touches. I expect it to settle around a 60-40 Jones-Williams snap breakout as the year rolls on.

 

 

 

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Towards the play calling that many of us think was poor (including me), the 1st and goal from the 1 yard line really stands out. As we saw, GB attempted 4 straight passes and 0 runs, failing to convert.

I researched all 2019 NFL games to see how teams have fared on goal to go situations, at the opposition's 1 or 2 yard line. Here are the numbers:

1st and Goal from 1 or 2 yard line
--Rush Attempts: 21 TD's on 35 Attempts (60%); 1 lost fumble
--Pass Attempts: 8 TD's on 14 Attempts (57.1%)

2nd and Goal from 1 or 2 yard line
--Rush Attempts: 12 TD's on 19 Attempts (63.2%)
--Pass Attempts: 7 TD's on 13 Attempts (53.8%); 1 sack

3rd and Goal from 1 or 2 yard line
--Rush Attempts: 11 TD's on 14 Attempts (78.6%)
--Pass Attempts: 5 TD's on 11 Attempts (45.5%); 1 interception and 1 sack

4th and Goal from 1 or 2 yard line
--Rush Attempts: 1 TD on 1 Attempt (100.0%)
--Pass Attempts: 2 TD's on 4 Attempts (50.0%)

Overall 
--Rush Attempts: 45 TD's on 69 Attempts (65.2%); 1 lost fumble
--Pass Attempts: 22 TD's on 42 Attempts (52.4%); 1 interception; 2 sacks

On every down, the stats prove that rushing has been significantly better than passing. 
And yet GB didn't run the ball once, with a player in Jones who this season is 3 for 3 scoring a TD on attempts within the 3 yard line.

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41 minutes ago, Corleone said:

On every down, the stats prove that rushing has been significantly better than passing. 
And yet GB didn't run the ball once, with a player in Jones who this season is 3 for 3 scoring a TD on attempts within the 3 yard line.

giphy.gif

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4 hours ago, Corleone said:

Towards the play calling that many of us think was poor (including me), the 1st and goal from the 1 yard line really stands out. As we saw, GB attempted 4 straight passes and 0 runs, failing to convert.

I researched all 2019 NFL games to see how teams have fared on goal to go situations, at the opposition's 1 or 2 yard line. Here are the numbers:

1st and Goal from 1 or 2 yard line
--Rush Attempts: 21 TD's on 35 Attempts (60%); 1 lost fumble
--Pass Attempts: 8 TD's on 14 Attempts (57.1%)

2nd and Goal from 1 or 2 yard line
--Rush Attempts: 12 TD's on 19 Attempts (63.2%)
--Pass Attempts: 7 TD's on 13 Attempts (53.8%); 1 sack

3rd and Goal from 1 or 2 yard line
--Rush Attempts: 11 TD's on 14 Attempts (78.6%)
--Pass Attempts: 5 TD's on 11 Attempts (45.5%); 1 interception and 1 sack

4th and Goal from 1 or 2 yard line
--Rush Attempts: 1 TD on 1 Attempt (100.0%)
--Pass Attempts: 2 TD's on 4 Attempts (50.0%)

Overall 
--Rush Attempts: 45 TD's on 69 Attempts (65.2%); 1 lost fumble
--Pass Attempts: 22 TD's on 42 Attempts (52.4%); 1 interception; 2 sacks

On every down, the stats prove that rushing has been significantly better than passing. 
And yet GB didn't run the ball once, with a player in Jones who this season is 3 for 3 scoring a TD on attempts within the 3 yard line.

That’s because if Rodgers doesn’t win the game for them then it doesn’t count.

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2 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

I told myself I wasn’t going to be a part of this backfield and somehow ended up in this mess. Never again. 

 

I can taste your beer 

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After looking at the ac forum people apparently are trying to move this guy like he’s got herpes. I don’t understand why to be honestly.

 

Outside of the Bears game he has produced over 15 ppr points per game with a big 27 pointer in one. 

 

What more can one ask for out of their rb2?

 

As well Davante and Jamal are banged up so I’m anticipating even more touches for AJ in the foreseeable future. Judging by the panic on here I would say he’s a very good buy low right now 

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5 minutes ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

After looking at the ac forum people apparently are trying to move this guy like he’s got herpes. I don’t understand why to be honestly.

 

Outside of the Bears game he has produced over 15 ppr points per game with a big 27 pointer in one. 

 

What more can one ask for out of their rb2?

 

As well Davante and Jamal are banged up so I’m anticipating even more touches for AJ in the foreseeable future. Judging by the panic on here I would say he’s a very good buy low right now 

I agree. I'm not sure why people are acting like the sky is falling with this guy. Maybe because of his low Yards per carry? They are afraid he's going to lose carries to Jamal?

Either way I think the notion that he has faced tough defenses and that he is facing an easier schedule coming up is true. 

And to be fair I don't think you can get rid of herpes. So we are stuck with this guy either way! 

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3 minutes ago, mbell317 said:

I agree. I'm not sure why people are acting like the sky is falling with this guy. Maybe because of his low Yards per carry? They are afraid he's going to lose carries to Jamal?

Either way I think the notion that he has faced tough defenses and that he is facing an easier schedule coming up is true. 

And to be fair I don't think you can get rid of herpes. So we are stuck with this guy either way! 

 

I wanted to say leprosy but too lazy to look up how to spell it lol

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we are panicked because of the usage going forward. We really had no idea Jamaal was gonna be this big of a factor. So going forward Jones may have quite a few games less than 10 pts unless he gets tds, which we cant bank on. He cannot keep up this TD pace not a chance

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1 minute ago, David Aames said:

we are panicked because of the usage going forward. We really had no idea Jamaal was gonna be this big of a factor. So going forward Jones may have quite a few games less than 10 pts unless he gets tds, which we cant bank on. He cannot keep up this TD pace not a chance

These seem like standard fears for every running back ranked around 7-15 though. 

The usage? Jamal is not going to take over and they aren't going to sit Aaron. 

He is going to be facing easier defenses. He will likely give us 12-16 points in .5 PPR which is all you can ask for based on his ADP. 

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1 hour ago, David Aames said:

we are panicked because of the usage going forward. We really had no idea Jamaal was gonna be this big of a factor. So going forward Jones may have quite a few games less than 10 pts unless he gets tds, which we cant bank on. He cannot keep up this TD pace not a chance

 

Why can’t he? When you have a hof qb chances are you will get goal line opportunities almost every game. 

 

And if he isn’t getting goal line looks every game then Chances are the offense is stalling, and they will most likely look to see why, and maybe that answer is because they haven’t run aj enough 

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On 9/27/2019 at 5:40 PM, StevenSC400 said:

99% of teams wouldn’t call pass plays 4 times in a row.

If the only RB that the other "99% of teams" had was Aaron Jones, they would!

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Jones is a good back... showed two weeks ago been getting points... he'll show again next week...

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59 minutes ago, cs3 said:

If the only RB that the other "99% of teams" had was Aaron Jones, they would!

They see him trolling..

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