Ecofolux

Corey Seager 2019 Outlook

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Can we please get some love for this guy? He is being completely disrespected heading into the 2019 season. Yes, 2018 was full of injuries that required surgery. Yes, it hurt/killed many fantasy seasons, including mine! Seager has been completely forgotten about and written off. He's still very young (24) and has shown so much success already at the major league level.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/dodgers-corey-seager-continues-smooth-recovery/

 

He's on pace for opening day, granted it's still too early to tell perfectly.  I see a huge buying opportunity here. I've seen him go only as high as 50 and low as 90 in early mocks. We're talking about a guy who could easily be top 30 player or higher. I'm absolutely in love with his offensive skills.

 

Let's look at his 1528 career Plate Appearances:

walks 9.6%       K's 19.6%         BABIP .352

The BABIP is high because he hits frozen ropes 24.6% Line-drive with a 41.6% Hard-contact to all fields   36.9% Pull   35.8% Center    27.4% Oppo

 

My league counts both OBP and SLG as extra offensive categories, which makes Seager even more appealing. He should be a .300+ hitter with a .900 OPS with mid-20 HR power. If he can turn some of those GBs (45%) into FBs( 30.4%) and keep his elite line-drive rate in the process, watch out for this future MVP. Friggin' love Seager

 

 

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3 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Can we please get some love for this guy? He is being completely disrespected heading into the 2019 season. Yes, 2018 was full of injuries that required surgery. Yes, it hurt/killed many fantasy seasons, including mine! Seager has been completely forgotten about and written off. He's still very young (24) and has shown so much success already at the major league level.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/dodgers-corey-seager-continues-smooth-recovery/

 

He's on pace for opening day, granted it's still too early to tell perfectly.  I see a huge buying opportunity here. I've seen him go only as high as 50 and low as 90 in early mocks. We're talking about a guy who could easily be top 30 player or higher. I'm absolutely in love with his offensive skills.

 

Let's look at his 1528 career Plate Appearances:

walks 9.6%       K's 19.6%         BABIP .352

The BABIP is high because he hits frozen ropes 24.6% Line-drive with a 41.6% Hard-contact to all fields   36.9% Pull   35.8% Center    27.4% Oppo

 

My league counts both OBP and SLG as extra offensive categories, which makes Seager even more appealing. He should be a .300+ hitter with a .900 OPS with mid-20 HR power. If he can turn some of those GBs (45%) into FBs( 30.4%) and keep his elite line-drive rate in the process, watch out for this future MVP. Friggin' love Seager

 

 

I think he is a good value right now, but in 2018 you started to see a bit of a dip in his ADP, I know in our mock on this site last year I think I got him in the 4th round, maybe 3rd - so whenever a guy loses a season to injury especially in baseball they tend to take a dip, he was already kind of trending down after 17 to some was a bit of a disappointment and then when you add in how deep SS is in 2019, its not a big surprise to see him fall a bit.  I think by draft season in March, if he is fully participating in spring and looks to be on track for opening day, his ADP will shoot up a bit.  He missed most of the year, he had another surgery on top of that (Hip I believe) so not a big surprise at this point to see the ADP where it is.  

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I've always love Corey's swing and natural abilities as a hitter. Between Seager's injury and Correa's over the last few years, I don't really personally understand why Correa is going higher in drafts. As is, I have Seager ranked above Correa. 

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18 minutes ago, taobball said:

I've always love Corey's swing and natural abilities as a hitter. Between Seager's injury and Correa's over the last few years, I don't really personally understand why Correa is going higher in drafts. As is, I have Seager ranked above Correa. 

 

how?

isnt seager hurt?

Edited by jfazz23

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3 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

how?

isnt seager hurt?

 

In terms of currently or in terms of Opening Day? Current reports are full speed by spring training. If he looks healthy in the first few ABs in Spring, I'll have him over Correa. 

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The early ADP (60-ish) isn't reflecting enough of a bargain for me to buy in given the unprecedented depth of the SS position, the question of how quickly he'll recover from the injury to reach his full production, and the fact that he's a zero in the SB column.  Maybe in 6x6 or other formats where SB are devalued and you get credit for his doubles, walks, etc. I can see using a late 5th/early 6th round pick, but as a 5x5 asset, I think the price is still a little too rich for my blood.

 

I'm probably bothering to fill SS that early, but if I am, give me Segura.

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Correa vs Seager  2016 and 2017 combined numbers.

 

Seager  .302/.370/.497  48 HRs,  190 R, 149 RBI,  7 SB    (1300 PAs)

Correa  .291/.373/.492   44 HRs, 158 R,  180 RBI,  15 SB   (1141 PAs)

 

 

Correa just had a more flashy hot streak in between all that.  They are both top prospects, both have upside to be much better.

Edited by Slatykamora
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22 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

The early ADP (60-ish) isn't reflecting enough of a bargain for me to buy in given the unprecedented depth of the SS position, the question of how quickly he'll recover from the injury to reach his full production, and the fact that he's a zero in the SB column.  Maybe in 6x6 or other formats where SB are devalued and you get credit for his doubles, walks, etc. I can see using a late 5th/early 6th round pick, but as a 5x5 asset, I think the price is still a little too rich for my blood.

 

I'm probably bothering to fill SS that early, but if I am, give me Segura.

 

8 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Correa vs Seager  2016 and 2017 combined numbers.

 

Seager  .302/.370/.497  48 HRs,  190 R, 149 RBI,  7 SB    (1300 PAs)

Correa  .291/.373/.492   44 HRs, 158 R,  180 RBI,  15 SB   (1141 PAs)

 

 

Correa just had a more flashy hot streak in between all that.  They are both top prospects, both have upside to be much better.

 

Yeah this is my general thing. Even at 60ish ADP... Correa went at 35th, 22nd, and 35th in the 3 RW Mock drafts. Seager went 57th, 59th, 56th in the same drafts. 

 

I wouldn't debate Segura. At some of the early ADP data (dont't know if it trends upward in Philly) might be my favorite SS for the price. And obviously anyone could make the argument that neither Correa or Seager are worth the price. But definitely if we're comparing the two, I'd vastly rather have Seager. I think I'll have Seager ranked higher regardless, but for the reduced price it's especially nice. 

 

Seager's pretty safe for .290/25 IMO which is a very nice floor at SS, but I think there's also a chance he hits .310/30, because I believe he's that type of hitter projecting into the future... he's still 24 YO (25 soon after start of next season) and had 7.0 and 5.9 WAR seasons already in his back pocket at 22 and 23. 

 

I have Seager as my #4 or #5 SS this year. 

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4 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

I like Seager but will probably have Lindor, Machado, Turner, Bregman, Correa, Bogaerts, all ahead of him on my SS list this year.

 

I don't have Bregman as a SS on the list I was looking at. 

 

So #5 or #6 in that situation .

 

I have Seager over Correa and Bogaerts. 

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Yeah, obviously Seager's a better bargain than Correa aside from the more recent (and severe) injury problem.  "Injury prone" is something you can't really assess until you have a larger sample than we have of either player, so I wouldn't use that label on either one, but if I'm forced to pick one at equal price, I'll take the guy who's been healthier lately.  Of course they're not going at an equal price, so yeah, if forced to take one or the other, give me Seager.

 

But that's my point -- the depth of SS means you're not forced to take either at their price.  There are so many better values out there.  They might not give you MVP-ish upside in the top 5% of their range of outcomes, but they'll have similar floors at much lower draft prices.

 

I think both are overvalued because of the tantalizing upside.  I like my upside gambles later in drafts.  YMMV.

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42 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Yeah, obviously Seager's a better bargain than Correa aside from the more recent (and severe) injury problem.  "Injury prone" is something you can't really assess until you have a larger sample than we have of either player, so I wouldn't use that label on either one, but if I'm forced to pick one at equal price, I'll take the guy who's been healthier lately.  Of course they're not going at an equal price, so yeah, if forced to take one or the other, give me Seager.

 

But that's my point -- the depth of SS means you're not forced to take either at their price.  There are so many better values out there.  They might not give you MVP-ish upside in the top 5% of their range of outcomes, but they'll have similar floors at much lower draft prices.

 

I think both are overvalued because of the tantalizing upside.  I like my upside gambles later in drafts.  YMMV.

Agree 100%. It’s early and a lot can change come draft day, but a competitor’s site has early rankings of Correa at 23rd and Seagar at 44th. Meanwhile, players like Villar and Peraza are ranked 88th and 123rd, respectively. A lot can change but I expect to have zero shares of Seagar and Correa at those costs.

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2 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Maybe in 6x6 or other formats where SB are devalued and you get credit for his doubles, walks, etc. I can see using a late 5th/early 6th round pick, but as a 5x5 asset, I think the price is still a little too rich for my blood.

 

This 

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Anybody have any insight into how Corey is to this point? No setbacks? I'm curious to see how far Seager moves up in SS fantasy rankings since Lindor is injured.

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8 hours ago, avatoot said:

Anybody have any insight into how Corey is to this point? No setbacks? I'm curious to see how far Seager moves up in SS fantasy rankings since Lindor is injured.

 

Recent reports have him running at close to 100% and he should be ready by opening day. 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25981242/dodgers-say-corey-seager-nearly-100-percent-elbow-hip-surgeries

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12 hours ago, Homerj24 said:

 

Recent reports have him running at close to 100% and he should be ready by opening day. 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25981242/dodgers-say-corey-seager-nearly-100-percent-elbow-hip-surgeries

"Roberts hopes his shortstop, who is throwing at 90 feet, can get 50 to 60 at-bats during spring training."

Whoooaaa.... so still only throwing from 90 ft as of Feb 12th? They expect him to be full go in 6 weeks but he's still restricted throwing from 90???

I really don't see him being ready to go opening day with that elbow, especially with all the setbacks that normally happen with TJ. There's no DH slot to benefit him in the NL, I can see him starting in the minors at DH until he's ready for full throwing on a daily basis. 

I have a lot of caution expecting him back full go in less than a year from being under the knife.

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No thanks.  No steals, boring a** home park.  Better real life potential hitter than fantasy.  K:BB hasn’t been impressive in early return samples.  The optimism here is strictly based on scouts whiffing on him as a top prospect.  He’s a decent hitter.  Dodgers club stuffed with players too I bet they baby him along the way give him routine days off.  Nobody you should reach for.  

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39 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

No thanks.  No steals, boring a** home park.  Better real life potential hitter than fantasy.  K:BB hasn’t been impressive in early return samples.  The optimism here is strictly based on scouts whiffing on him as a top prospect.  He’s a decent hitter.  Dodgers club stuffed with players too I bet they baby him along the way give him routine days off.  Nobody you should reach for.  

 

K:bb since his early return?  He hasn’t returned yet?

And how on earth did any scout whiff on a 24 year old with a RoY award, 2 all star appearances and 13.7 career WAR through a little more than 2 full seasons?  

Just nonsense being spewed here.  Only thing you said with merit is that he doesn’t steal bases

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1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

No thanks.  No steals, boring a** home park.  Better real life potential hitter than fantasy.  K:BB hasn’t been impressive in early return samples.  The optimism here is strictly based on scouts whiffing on him as a top prospect.  He’s a decent hitter.  Dodgers club stuffed with players too I bet they baby him along the way give him routine days off.  Nobody you should reach for.  

This isn't the Joc Pederson thread fyi

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5 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

No thanks.  No steals, boring a** home park.  Better real life potential hitter than fantasy.  K:BB hasn’t been impressive in early return samples.  The optimism here is strictly based on scouts whiffing on him as a top prospect.  He’s a decent hitter.  Dodgers club stuffed with players too I bet they baby him along the way give him routine days off.  Nobody you should reach for.  

While I don’t necessarily agree with everything you say in your post, he’s a pretty hard pass for me too. Those are 2 pretty significant surgeries he’s coming back from and while he might be ready for opening day, it’s fair to question what kind of power we might see out of him this year. I also agree that we won’t see any steals and that the Dodgers will give him more frequent rest days than usual. Give me Peraza two rounds later. Hell, give me DeJong 100 picks later and I wouldn’t be surprised if he outperforms him fantasy-wise.

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13 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

No thanks.  No steals, boring a** home park.  Better real life potential hitter than fantasy.  K:BB hasn’t been impressive in early return samples.  The optimism here is strictly based on scouts whiffing on him as a top prospect.  He’s a decent hitter.  Dodgers club stuffed with players too I bet they baby him along the way give him routine days off.  Nobody you should reach for.  

Career .302 hitter with .866 OPS and 133 wRC+... how is that a whiff? 

Career 10% BB, 20% K.

Hopefully for you the new site resign will include a delete post option :lol:

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13 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

 

K:bb since his early return?  He hasn’t returned yet?

And how on earth did any scout whiff on a 24 year old with a RoY award, 2 all star appearances and 13.7 career WAR through a little more than 2 full seasons?  

Just nonsense being spewed here.  Only thing you said with merit is that he doesn’t steal bases

Early return as in his career.  Whiff was a little strong lingo there, I’ll give you that. I just don’t know if he has the fantasy friendly type game that warrants reaching for.  Coupled with a bad home park, deep team where days off are likely plentiful, I just see too many other SS’s at much better value.  

Edited by Cmilne23

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If you’re playing in a keeper/dynasty league then this is a good time to nab Corey Seager. He obviously has talent and if he eventually returns to his 2017 form then you’ve got a great player for years to come. In a non-keeper league his value is definitely lower.

Edited by BCMarch10
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14 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

No thanks.  No steals, boring a** home park.  Better real life potential hitter than fantasy.  K:BB hasn’t been impressive in early return samples.  The optimism here is strictly based on scouts whiffing on him as a top prospect.  He’s a decent hitter.  Dodgers club stuffed with players too I bet they baby him along the way give him routine days off.  Nobody you should reach for.  

 

23 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Early return as in his career.  Whiff was a little strong lingo there, I’ll give you that. I just don’t know if he has the fantasy friendly type game that warrants reaching for.  Coupled with a bad home park, deep team where days off are likely plentiful, I just see too many other SS’s at much better value.  

 

Yeah I just don't know that I agree at all. I mean differing minds generate differing opinions and that's fun...

 

I still see Seager as a Joey Votto at SS. Others have already used the RotY and the WAR arguments. He's turning 25 coming into this season. Like this seems like we would never be saying this if Seager didn't get hurt last year.

 

He seems like a franchise cornerstone to me-- a top player in all of baseball-- and his healthy WARs at 22 and 23 more than validate that. I guess in your opinion I'm still ignorantly whiffing on him but I just don't think this is an accurate stance at all in regards to Seager, who has been one of baseball's best young players. 

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