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Corey Seager 2019 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

Yeah I just don't know that I agree at all. I mean differing minds generate differing opinions and that's fun...

 

I still see Seager as a Joey Votto at SS. Others have already used the RotY and the WAR arguments. He's turning 25 coming into this season. Like this seems like we would never be saying this if Seager didn't get hurt last year.

 

He seems like a franchise cornerstone to me-- a top player in all of baseball-- and his healthy WARs at 22 and 23 more than validate that. I guess in your opinion I'm still ignorantly whiffing on him but I just don't think this is an accurate stance at all in regards to Seager, who has been one of baseball's best young players. 

I’m just looking at from a fantasy perspective.  In real life similar to his brother where the value of defense is heavily factored in they hold more value.  In fantasy with the lack of steals, lackluster home park and coming off 2 major surgeries just doesn’t scream as someone to reach for.  But after looking at lists he’s around 10 (position rankings) on a lot of boards I’ve seen which is about right.  Doesn’t seem like anyone is overly zealous on him from initial rankings I’ve seen.  My original post was probably a little too strong.  Chalk it up to offseason plus I just had my second kid so my brain may be a little behind early :lol:

Edited by Cmilne23

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4 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

I’m just looking at from a fantasy perspective.  In real life similar to his brother where the value of defense is heavily factored in they hold more value.  In fantasy with the lack of steals, lackluster home park and coming off 2 major surgeries just doesn’t scream as someone to reach for.  But after looking at lists he’s around 10 (position rankings) on a lot of boards I’ve seen which is about right.  Doesn’t seem like anyone is overly zealous on him from initial rankings I’ve seen.  My original post was probably a little too strong.  Chalk it up to offseason plus I just had my second kid so my brain may be a little behind early :lol:

 

Fair enough, but I honeslty still don't agree because I think we're viewing the BA differently. 

 

Like I don't think Scouts missed at all. I think Seager could have the rare ability to generate a REALLY high BA. I see that in the swing. I see that in the batted ball profile. I see that in the fact that he's consistently posted ridiculous BABIPs. I see that in him just needing modest improvements v. LHP.

 

I also think there's ceiling in the power. If Seager ranges from a .305/26/90/95 to a .315/30/100/105, he'll be one of the best players perennially in fantasy baseball regardless on if he steals 3 or 4 bases or not. And I still see that as more-or-less a realistic long term projection. Maybe this isn't the year to project him that high, but this is also potentially, in my opinion, the last year you see his ADP so low. So yes, I will be investing quite a bit. 

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15 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Fair enough, but I honeslty still don't agree because I think we're viewing the BA differently. 

 

Like I don't think Scouts missed at all. I think Seager could have the rare ability to generate a REALLY high BA. I see that in the swing. I see that in the batted ball profile. I see that in the fact that he's consistently posted ridiculous BABIPs. I see that in him just needing modest improvements v. LHP.

 

I also think there's ceiling in the power. If Seager ranges from a .305/26/90/95 to a .315/30/100/105, he'll be one of the best players perennially in fantasy baseball regardless on if he steals 3 or 4 bases or not. And I still see that as more-or-less a realistic long term projection. Maybe this isn't the year to project him that high, but this is also potentially, in my opinion, the last year you see his ADP so low. So yes, I will be investing quite a bit. 

Exactly, I think in keeper and redraft his value is a lot lower then in dynasty where he should go in the first three or four rounds since he’s only 24. I also think his value next year at this time will be a end of the 1st or 2nd round pick so I’m investing in a lot of leagues or trading for him where I can.

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Glad to hear it! Keeping my fingers crossed for his continued good health throughout the year. He's young and I fully expect he will return to full form.

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I'd guess it may take him a bit to shake the rust off & get back into the everyday routine but I'd also guess that the meh production we were getting before he was shut down was mostly due to chronic pain in that elbow & hip - hard to really go after a ball at the plate or the field when you know it's going to hurt.

As long he as doesn't suffer any setbacks & stays relatively healthy, I can see 2019 being a getting-back-confidence year with 2020 being the real start of Corey Seagar Prime.

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6 hours ago, wayzupusc said:

I'd guess it may take him a bit to shake the rust off & get back into the everyday routine but I'd also guess that the meh production we were getting before he was shut down was mostly due to chronic pain in that elbow & hip - hard to really go after a ball at the plate or the field when you know it's going to hurt.

As long he as doesn't suffer any setbacks & stays relatively healthy, I can see 2019 being a getting-back-confidence year with 2020 being the real start of Corey Seagar Prime.

I'd even say the 2nd half of this season:  look out.  :)

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Well well...look who’s hitting jacks off Cole Hamels...

Edited by mcbane
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if healthy the most underrated bat in drafts. saw him fall to mid 60's multiple times. well the times where I didn't take him in the 50's. I then jumped on him in the 60's

never got close to 20 bucks in auction

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14 minutes ago, GrapeJuice said:

I got him in the 8th round, 92 overall. CBS has him buried.

That’s still in the range he’s been. Good value, but without massive power and any speed, he’s got to hit over 300 to truly payout

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Just found it funny since they had him ranked #1 overall in the SS department before he got hurt and now he was #15. I'll take that.

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10 minutes ago, GrapeJuice said:

Just found it funny since they had him ranked #1 overall in the SS department before he got hurt and now he was #15. I'll take that.

Albeit a different position but Scooter Gennett is an interesting comp for him vis a vis ADP

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4 hours ago, GrapeJuice said:

I got him in the 8th round, 92 overall. CBS has him buried.

it really isn't that terrible of ranking if you look strictly on past numbers and players that offer similar production like andujar, scooter, castellanos.

the thing about seager is his ceiling is much much higher and floor is just as good if not better (if healthy)

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39 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

it really isn't that terrible of ranking if you look strictly on past numbers and players that offer similar production like andujar, scooter, castellanos.

the thing about seager is his ceiling is much much higher and floor is just as good if not better (if healthy)

 

I suppose where I took him isn't bad but having him the #15 ranked SS is pretty bad. That's what I meant when I said buried.

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Fantrax sitting around 65, so no way I get him. some numbnard will grab him there

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HR (showing the power) and a BB (showing the eye/patience).....looking good Seager!

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That homer swing was very nice to see. Very aggressive.

In that lineup he could be in for a huge year hitting 2nd.

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I’m all in on seager(have him in 3/3 leagues) but don’t get too excited by that hr...Greinke was serving straight BP yesterday.  His hr came off an 88 mph fastball that was as straight as they come slight up and in, any MLB player should have knocked it out.

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2 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

I’m all in on seager(have him in 3/3 leagues) but don’t get too excited by that hr...Greinke was serving straight BP yesterday.  His hr came off an 88 mph fastball that was as straight as they come slight up and in, any MLB player should have knocked it out.

 

But we aren’t judging his talent we’re judging his health. His talent, at least IMo, is unquestioned. It’s about if he would hit the ground running at 100%. This blast-off, trash pitch or not, helps encourage me about his elbow integrity. 

 

.300/.400/.500 season feels incoming. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

But we aren’t judging his talent we’re judging his health. His talent, at least IMo, is unquestioned. It’s about if he would hit the ground running at 100%. This blast-off, trash pitch or not, helps encourage me about his elbow integrity. 

 

.300/.400/.500 season feels incoming. 

 

True, to be honest I was more commenting on just how awful Greinke looked than how good Seager did.  Again I’m all in on Seager and see him going right back to being a top 15 dynasty asset by mid year

Edited by BackyardBaseball
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2 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

 

True, to be honest I was more commenting on just how awful Greinke looked than how good Seager did.  Again I’m all in on Seager and see him going right back to being a top 15 dynasty asset by mid year

I have been an owner of Seager for a few years in dynasty and I traded a lot to get him. My feeling 2 years ago was that he would be a top 5ish hitter in the league, but that is judgement based and not rooted in fantasy metrics. Personally, he is one of my favorite hitters to watch. Reminds me a lot of Utley with his bat skills and I thought his hard hit % would translate into 30+ HR's while maintaining 300+/400ish once he got in his prime and comfortable knowing the pitches he can be aggressive with and increase his pull%. All that said, the only way he is a top 15 asset in dynasty is if your league has OBP and even then he is borderline. His lack of steals really caps his upside and I don't think he is ever going to have that part of the fantasy game. Elite OBP with nice power but no steals puts you outside of that elite upper echelon regardless of how many runs you score. 

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