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Corey Seager 2019 Outlook

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10 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I have been an owner of Seager for a few years in dynasty and I traded a lot to get him. My feeling 2 years ago was that he would be a top 5ish hitter in the league, but that is judgement based and not rooted in fantasy metrics. Personally, he is one of my favorite hitters to watch. Reminds me a lot of Utley with his bat skills and I thought his hard hit % would translate into 30+ HR's while maintaining 300+/400ish once he got in his prime and comfortable knowing the pitches he can be aggressive with and increase his pull%. All that said, the only way he is a top 15 asset in dynasty is if your league has OBP and even then he is borderline. His lack of steals really caps his upside and I don't think he is ever going to have that part of the fantasy game. Elite OBP with nice power but no steals puts you outside of that elite upper echelon regardless of how many runs you score. 

 

I disagree. Even without steals, if he manages a better than .300 BA consistently he can be a top 15 asset. Joey Votto was drafted almost at that price last year after three consecutive finishes as the #2 Fantasy 1B and he doesn't steal a dozen either. If Seager caps out at .290-.300 with 28 HRs and good R/RBI, maybe he's never quite a top 15 dynasty asset, but if he caps out at .305-.315+ with 30+ and 100/100+, he'll be a top 15 annual player. Including add value for the safety and consistency that I believe will exist in his career, personally. 

 

I still see his BA upside as being safe for .300 and maybe climbing a bit higher. For his .302 Career BA, he still hasn't refined his abilities v. LHP or especially their breaking pitches yet. 

 

Maybe on a year-to-year basis, he doesn't quite hit top 15 every year, but even on a year-to-year I don't think he falls too far short in his prime. 

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22 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I disagree. Even without steals, if he manages a better than .300 BA consistently he can be a top 15 asset. Joey Votto was drafted almost at that price last year after three consecutive finishes as the #2 Fantasy 1B and he doesn't steal a dozen either. If Seager caps out at .290-.300 with 28 HRs and good R/RBI, maybe he's never quite a top 15 dynasty asset, but if he caps out at .305-.315+ with 30+ and 100/100+, he'll be a top 15 annual player. Including add value for the safety and consistency that I believe will exist in his career, personally. 

 

I still see his BA upside as being safe for .300 and maybe climbing a bit higher. For his .302 Career BA, he still hasn't refined his abilities v. LHP or especially their breaking pitches yet. 

 

Maybe on a year-to-year basis, he doesn't quite hit top 15 every year, but even on a year-to-year I don't think he falls too far short in his prime. 

I think we are probably going to split hairs on dynasty rankings...and a lot of it has to do with team build preference and how much you want to include pitchers and how long of a timeline you are weighting, etc. I just can not consider what Votto's ADP in redraft (my assumption) was for the past 2 years as an argument for ranking a 24/25 year old in dynasty. It is weird to me and mentally I can not keep up with because the nature of dynasty rankings are so skewed by individual preference and inputs. Not saying I don't get your angle, just saying I don't think about it that way.  

I referenced my thought from 2 years ago. I think missing a year of development really stunted him and I think the conversation would be different about his abilities to handle LHP. He handled LHP in 2017 and I am just considering 2018 a completely lost season and I am drawing zero conclusions from or factoring in any way. Small sample set that had to have been mentally influenced by injury, etc. I think 2019 is going to be a developmental year for him. I think 2020 is going to be the start of him establishing himself as an elite hitter. I wish he would not have been injured and we could have seen him piggyback his '17 into another 600+ ABs in '18. 

By the way, we share very similar prime stat lines so it is really just how high you want to pay for a 300+/400ish/30ish elite run scoring option. I think he is going to be a top 5 hitter in baseball and that is pretty high praise. 

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52 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I have been an owner of Seager for a few years in dynasty and I traded a lot to get him. My feeling 2 years ago was that he would be a top 5ish hitter in the league, but that is judgement based and not rooted in fantasy metrics. Personally, he is one of my favorite hitters to watch. Reminds me a lot of Utley with his bat skills and I thought his hard hit % would translate into 30+ HR's while maintaining 300+/400ish once he got in his prime and comfortable knowing the pitches he can be aggressive with and increase his pull%. All that said, the only way he is a top 15 asset in dynasty is if your league has OBP and even then he is borderline. His lack of steals really caps his upside and I don't think he is ever going to have that part of the fantasy game. Elite OBP with nice power but no steals puts you outside of that elite upper echelon regardless of how many runs you score. 

 

My 2 dynasty leagues are OBP, but I feel he is just as valuable in AVG leagues as should be one of the few perennial .300+ hitters every year.   You’re right that he’ll never be a 5 category guy, but he should always be a 4 category stud because along with his high avg/Obp, solid hrs(~30) hitting at the top of the dodgers lineup should guarantee at least 180+ R+RBI. 

 

For him to get back to being a top 15 guy I think he needs to put up a .300+ avg with 30 hrs and 200 r/rbi combined this year.  Going into next year I could see him being the #3 SS behind Lindor and Turner.  Machado will lose eligibility and I don’t see Story repeating to stay as high as he is now.  If Correa can stay healthy they could be tied by years end and Bogaerts is most likely just a step below the two.

 

Long story short, I think it’s very plausible he is the #3 SS and a top 15 overall player going into next year if he meets my lofty expectations.

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2 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

 

My 2 dynasty leagues are OBP, but I feel he is just as valuable in AVG leagues as should be one of the few perennial .300+ hitters every year.   You’re right that he’ll never be a 5 category guy, but he should always be a 4 category stud because along with his high avg/Obp, solid hrs(~30) hitting at the top of the dodgers lineup should guarantee at least 180+ R+RBI. 

 

For him to get back to being a top 15 guy I think he needs to put up a .300+ avg with 30 hrs and 200 r/rbi combined this year.  Going into next year I could see him being the #3 SS behind Lindor and Turner.  Machado will lose eligibility and I don’t see Story repeating to stay as high as he is now.  If Correa can stay healthy they could be tied by years end and Bogaerts is most likely just a step below the two.

 

Long story short, I think it’s very plausible he is the #3 SS and a top 15 overall player going into next year if he meets my lofty expectations.

I was probably too harsh with my initial post. I think the 15 range is probably his upside for dynasty. Maybe I am not valuing him highly enough because my prime projections are very high. SS is such a deep position these days it is pretty incredible. I am dating myself here, but there was a time where David Eckstein was an option as your SS.  

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I also feel that him batting in the 2nd hole in the lineup hurts his RBI production as well. Unless he becomes a super elite hitter (0.330+), I feel like he won't be a top 15 asset in the fantasy game (he is IRL). .

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will be tough for him to be top 15 with no steals (but he might get the Rizzo/ safety net pick year 2 year where he is drafted ahead of what his stats show)

 

see freeman and bregman which I think seager can match/beat out in the 4 cat's but the double digit bags will make it tough on seager

if seager becomes 310-320 hitter or mid 30's hrs then he will be top 15 asset 

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First time owner and looks like his swing and health is back to 100%, really nice hard line drive swing.

Batting 2nd in that torrid offense he should be in for a huge year. 

 

 

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Ugh - THIS guy!

 

Corey Seager was removed from Thursday's game against the Cardinals with an apparent injury.

Seager took a pitch off the leg in the top of the fourth and was replaced at shortstop by Enrique Hernandez in the bottom half of that inning. There should be a status update soon from Busch Stadium in St. Louis.

RELATED: 
Apr 11, 2019, 1:53 PM

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2 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

Ugh - THIS guy!

 

Corey Seager was removed from Thursday's game against the Cardinals with an apparent injury.

Seager took a pitch off the leg in the top of the fourth and was replaced at shortstop by Enrique Hernandez in the bottom half of that inning. There should be a status update soon from Busch Stadium in St. Louis.

RELATED: 
Apr 11, 2019, 1:53 PM

 

Didn't look like it got him anywhere bad. Might have just cramped up on him. 

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Left hamstring contusion 

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Would rather it be a gluteus maximus contusion but at least it isn't a broken finger or wrist or that elbow of his...

 

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curious ppl's thoughts on seags thus far? Have been on his bandwagon for years and I can't tell if I'm underwhelmed or just had too big of expectations. Of course he's coming off a missed year. Am I being too harsh?

 

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I would give it to June for a fair assessment on Seags. I think he's adjusting well to missing almost all of last year. He's bigger, and he's got a great swing.

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I benched him for the first time this year....currently my 4th best SS.....after Semien, Dejong and Escobar.

By the end of the year, my expectation will be that he is my #1.....dude can rake....I would give him through May to see what he will be.....he did have some nice, although small, spurts this year.

 

Be patient!

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He has been terrible. Dodgers fans (I cover them some) cannot bear hearing this 

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8 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

He has been terrible. Dodgers fans (I cover them some) cannot bear hearing this 

 

 

the guy missed almost a whole year....hes typically a .300 type hitter with nice pop.....As a Mets fan, I wish I had that problem.

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Just be patient, right now all the dodgers stats are being swallowed up by belly. When belly slows up...the Seagers/turners/pollocks will begin to show up. Prolly a good time to buy low. Just an idea. 

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4 minutes ago, Thewizardnj said:

Just be patient, right now all the dodgers stats are being swallowed up by belly. When belly slows up...the Seagers/turners/pollocks will begin to show up. Prolly a good time to buy low. Just an idea. 

 

Considering he's hitting in front of Belly, how are his stats being 'swallowed up'? 

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If you watch him, he looks nothing like a guy who will approach .300, missing a ton of hitters pitches. Pitches he used to put in the gap. It isn’t there. His head is moving a ton in the box 

Edited by mevins31

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Who knew his big brother was better. Cory was awesome as a rookie but has been exploited now. Story is more than twice the player as him. I will never draft him again.

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MLB is not easy as some make it look. Corey missed a whole year, it's going to take some time to get the routine back set & timing at the plate down. It will come, probably just not as quickly as some would like. 

I'm patient...it will come. 

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19 hours ago, Krambone said:

Who knew his big brother was better. Cory was awesome as a rookie but has been exploited now. Story is more than twice the player as him. I will never draft him again.

 

I don't think he's been exploited. He has two years of track record (2016 and 2017) and is coming off of a major injury. Very often guys don't look as good for a while coming off of injury, particularly when it's a near-season long injury - in general however long a player was out for is how long I give them to get back on track.

Not to say he hasn't been disappointing this season, but there's a very clear reason as to why he's been struggling.

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