bjvance5

Yoan Moncada 2019 Outlook

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On 4/5/2019 at 9:17 PM, chicagowhitesox1173 said:

The way he took pitches today was night and day compared to last year. I took him last year and never even had him on my radar this year, I think I made a mistake.

I agree. His plate discipline has really improved this year. I didn't see that coming. If he continues that throughout the year then this guy is going to be really good. So far, it looks like he's taken a major step forward. 

 

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On 4/5/2019 at 8:17 PM, chicagowhitesox1173 said:

The way he took pitches today was night and day compared to last year. I took him last year and never even had him on my radar this year, I think I made a mistake.

 

I have him on my dynasty league and never even thought of giving him up even though I had managers trying to trade him away from my team.

During spring training; I paid attention to his K's and BB's; in February, in 12 PA, he had 5 K's and 1 BB, in March, with more than 4 times the PA from Feb. (52 PA), he only strung out 11 times and walked 10 times. 

I wanted to post on here but felt that I would jinx him; but so far so good during the season; except for yesterday 0-5 2K's (nitpicking!?)... Hopefully he will continue to keep his K's down and walk more. He did say he will try to be more aggressive in 2 strike counts, so that should help a lot, as many of his K's last year came from called strike.

 

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23 hours ago, AF25 said:

 

I have him on my dynasty league and never even thought of giving him up even though I had managers trying to trade him away from my team.

During spring training; I paid attention to his K's and BB's; in February, in 12 PA, he had 5 K's and 1 BB, in March, with more than 4 times the PA from Feb. (52 PA), he only strung out 11 times and walked 10 times. 

I wanted to post on here but felt that I would jinx him; but so far so good during the season; except for yesterday 0-5 2K's (nitpicking!?)... Hopefully he will continue to keep his K's down and walk more. He did say he will try to be more aggressive in 2 strike counts, so that should help a lot, as many of his K's last year came from called strike.

 

 

85 of them.  Set a record!

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2 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

85 of them.  Set a record!

 

I was looking for that detail but couldn't find it. Where did you get that stat? I only know this due to the https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/white-sox/yoan-moncada-has-lot-strikeouts-and-white-sox-think-baseballs-umpires-might-be-partially I posted earlier in this thread.

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Not sure how being aggressive with 2 strikes automatically qualifies you for regression in strikeouts... it could just as easily cause the opposite.

 

But hoping he figures it out and continues his success.  Still very young, my money is on him to eventually breakout if it already isn’t happening. 

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22 minutes ago, bjvance5 said:

Not sure how being aggressive with 2 strikes automatically qualifies you for regression in strikeouts... it could just as easily cause the opposite.

u would think but 85 backwards K's is alot

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, bjvance5 said:

Not sure how being aggressive with 2 strikes automatically qualifies you for regression in strikeouts... it could just as easily cause the opposite.

 

But hoping he figures it out and continues his success.  Still very young, my money is on him to eventually breakout if it already isn’t happening. 

 

Because swinging in 2 strike counts as opposed to watching at least gives him a chance?

 

"You strike out in 100% of the 2 strike at bats you watch a strike in." - Michael Scott, probably

Edited by sportsfreak2744
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47 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Because swinging in 2 strike counts as opposed to watching at least gives him a chance?

 

"You strike out in 100% of the 2 strike at bats you watch a strike in." - Michael Scott, probably

 

Swinging at a bad pitch also eliminates the possibility of a walk or better sequential pitch.

I do see your point but there’s also a good possibility of an inverse result. Moncada drew a lot of walks last year so hopefully it doesn’t drop his obp.

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4 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

u would think but 85 backwards K's is alot

 

I may be wrong but I think that's the MLB record. And a lot of them were on fastballs. So the combo of swinging at more two-strike pitches and making a little more z-contact could propel his average northward 30+ points. 

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Two dingers tonight...One opposite field shot and one he pulled that was murdered...Third year breakout...Wait, he's not a WR...

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@taobball

 

How common is it for hitters to make strides in BA while maintaining the same SwStr%?

 

Because that’s what he’s doing right now. I want to believe but if he’s still whiffing on the same amount of pitches that gives me pause

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23 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

@taobball

 

How common is it for hitters to make strides in BA while maintaining the same SwStr%?

 

Because that’s what he’s doing right now. I want to believe but if he’s still whiffing on the same amount of pitches that gives me pause

You should also look at other important statistics like

 

Home run total

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26 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

@taobball

 

How common is it for hitters to make strides in BA while maintaining the same SwStr%?

 

Because that’s what he’s doing right now. I want to believe but if he’s still whiffing on the same amount of pitches that gives me pause

 

On 4/3/2019 at 8:08 PM, taobball said:

This seems like a borderline buy high in some leagues. 

 

On 4/3/2019 at 11:53 PM, taobball said:

 

I'd have taken him in the top 100 picks most likely if I had a draft today. I'm desperate to get to some film study of his 2018 v. 2019 swing to what he might be donig differejntly. His Z-Contact is great and I don't care how short the sample is, I'd argue that it would be difficult to find a sample of five games this good in that regard in his career. Like last year he started off on fire, but he was K'n 36% of the time. Now he's on fire at like 16%. Massive difference. 

 

Just wanted to quote myself first because I'm not sure what all I've said. To me, if there is (and there is) one player that I've physically changed a great deal on my rankings from March 1st to today, it's Yoan Moncada. (I'm removing some Tatis Jr.-esque exceptions for reasons that should be obvious. To be clear, I'd prefer Moncada > Tatis Jr. in redraft, but I also had Moncada considerably higher than Tatis Jr., who I presumed would start in AA-AAA, heading into 2019). 

 

To me personally, the parameters of the question are just a bit off. Firstly, this one is a bit semantics, but I never really project "BA" in-and-of itself. I guess the most accurate statement would be there's a missing step in my brain equation in the question, because I'm looking for just the change in K%. The change in BA will come with a massive change in K%, so I'm not even really concerning myself with the raw number of what Moncada's BA is / should be so much as just justifying the change in K%, which right now sits at ~9.1% better than last year. 

 

But more importantly, I'm focusing on a different contact metric for Yoan Moncada. Whiff% is fine but it is flawed especially if you're looking at raw bat-to-ball skills which is what I'm looking for with Yoan Moncada. To put it anecdotally, if you're looking fastball, and you think you see fastball, and then you swing at a Slider two-feet off the plate and miss, that doesn't really say anything about your CONTACT ability. I mean you could argue a better hitter can foul off more pitches, but the point being made here is that location effects swing+miss a lot. Part of the reason why Moncada's Whiff% is as high this year as it is last year is that he's chasing a little bit more. Which, for someone who took so many backwards Ks last year, is probably not a bad thing. And if i'm not concerning myself with his eye, even if the BBs are a bit down, I'm more interested what he's doing on SWINGS on pitches IN THE K-ZONE, which is virtually the definition of Z-Contact and why Z-Contact is one of my favorite advanced metrics there is. 

 

His Z-Contact last year was 79.8%. When I made those two posts about 10 days to 2 weeks ago, it was around 87+% if I remember correctly. The Whiff% was actually 8% and has risen since then. But the Z-Contact has remained strong at 86.2% now that the sample is almost twice as big. 

 

The only real way you DON'T improve significantly if you cut your K% is by hitting far fewer HRs / having a reduction in your quality of contact. Moncada hit his 4th and 5th HRs, and his 43.5% Hard% / 6.5% Soft% going into today don't exactly suggest that he's had any sort of reduction in his quality of contact. His Z-Contact improvement and approach of attack could cause him to walk less, but as a whole he's displayed a good eye in his career. I don't care necessarily about bb%. I care about selective-ness. If you swing at good pitches and make good contact at them, you may not walk much. Moncada walked a lot last year but also took a good deal more pitches, and presumably took a good deal of good pitches based on the looking Ks. He'll ahve to toggle his aggressiveness but that's what being a baseball player and making adjustments is about. Showing that he can make that adjustment in-and-of-itself is everything to me. 

 

Z-Contact for Moncada is trending down slightly, but I don't think it falls too much further south, and at worst is still going to finish as a significant improvement over 2018. Many say to wait for samples to mature and that's nice and fine and dandy at all but no one trades breakouts with mature samples. You think its hard to trade for Moncada now? Imagine if we're sitting here on May 20th and he's still hitting .300 and not striking out as much. Sample Size shouldn't be a crutch. An uber-talent made tangible, physical changes in things like his hand position and swing and has shown a direct increase in the early season in creatnig Contact in the Zone without sacrificing the ability to do damage. That's glorious, and while players do stumble on hot streaks, doesn't really happen too often by accident IMO. 

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SwStr is the same but z swing and z contact are both up a good bit. So as a result he's making very little weak contact. 

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1 minute ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

Took the throw off the skull when stealing second earlier in the game and now was just pinch hit for in the 7th

Did his helmet fall off and did he get cranked in the head?? Or did the ball hit his helmet?

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2 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Did his helmet fall off and did he get cranked in the head?? Or did the ball hit his helmet?

 

Ball hit helmet. Got him good. 

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1 minute ago, sasnumberonefan said:

Source? That's encouraging news. 

White Sox broadcast

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Another moon shot. 452 ft. Based on his numbers this far, is this the breakout we have been waiting for? Anyone have any insight under the hood? 

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