Corleone

Saquon Barkley 2019 Outlook

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13 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Even if they decide to stack the box, that exposes the drefense greatly for him to have his way with the secondary, he will get thru those stacked boxes,

he will break the record this season for number of 40 plus yard runs

Here's some interesting information on Saquon and 40+ yard plays...
https://247sports.com/nfl/new-york-giants/LongFormArticle/Saquon-Barkley-New-York-Giants-all-time-records--126177397/#126177397_2

SAQUON BARKLEY'S 40-PLUS PLAYS IN THE CONTEXT OF NFL HISTORY

Earlier this season, we broke down the ten most astounding stats, records, and facts about Barkley's rookie season so far. You can find them here. However, one we did not add to the list was his big-play ability in the context of recent NFL history. Big Blue Interactive contributor BSIMatt did the incredible and thorough research on running backs who have had an abundance of explosive plays in a single season.

He used the context of plays that went for 40 yards -- Barkley racked up NINE of these during his rookie season.

He then compared Barkley's big-play production during the 2018 season to the big-play production of other running backs in the last 28 years. We view this as a fair context considering how the NFL has changed its rules specifically on the defensive side of the ball and it has resulted in more pass attempts, completions, yards, and big plays across the NFL. 

According to his research, fact-checked on Pro Football Reference, in the past 28 years, only two running backs have had more than eight plays of 40-plus yards in a single season. Chris Johnson had 10 of these plays in 2009 during a season where he broke the single-season yards from scrimmage record on route to winning the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award. The other running back was Hall of Famer Barry Sanders who broke off 12 plays of 40-plus yards during the 1997 season when he won the NFL's MVP award.

Now let's put Barkley's (nine) 40-plus plays in context with Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott over the course of his three-year NFL career.

Barkley has nine plays of 40-plus this season (331 touches).
Elliot has six plays of 40-plus in his career (978 touches).

Edited by Corleone
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8 hours ago, Corleone said:

Here's some interesting information on Saquon and 40+ yard plays...
https://247sports.com/nfl/new-york-giants/LongFormArticle/Saquon-Barkley-New-York-Giants-all-time-records--126177397/#126177397_2

SAQUON BARKLEY'S 40-PLUS PLAYS IN THE CONTEXT OF NFL HISTORY

Earlier this season, we broke down the ten most astounding stats, records, and facts about Barkley's rookie season so far. You can find them here. However, one we did not add to the list was his big-play ability in the context of recent NFL history. Big Blue Interactive contributor BSIMatt did the incredible and thorough research on running backs who have had an abundance of explosive plays in a single season.

He used the context of plays that went for 40 yards -- Barkley racked up NINE of these during his rookie season.

He then compared Barkley's big-play production during the 2018 season to the big-play production of other running backs in the last 28 years. We view this as a fair context considering how the NFL has changed its rules specifically on the defensive side of the ball and it has resulted in more pass attempts, completions, yards, and big plays across the NFL. 

According to his research, fact-checked on Pro Football Reference, in the past 28 years, only two running backs have had more than eight plays of 40-plus yards in a single season. Chris Johnson had 10 of these plays in 2009 during a season where he broke the single-season yards from scrimmage record on route to winning the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award. The other running back was Hall of Famer Barry Sanders who broke off 12 plays of 40-plus yards during the 1997 season when he won the NFL's MVP award.

Now let's put Barkley's (nine) 40-plus plays in context with Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott over the course of his three-year NFL career.

Barkley has nine plays of 40-plus this season (331 touches).
Elliot has six plays of 40-plus in his career (978 touches).

That's definitely a stat to take note of, 9 40+ plays with only 331 touches is pretty remarkable 

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I think I'm back on the train feeling this dude will make it happen. I think as Ackbar would say, it's a trap!.. To pass on him with the idea that he won't get the job done. 

Think about all those MJD years, or guys like AJ even tho he's a wr... But stank teams man, and they were beasts. Now I believe ak and CMC are still obviously solid choices, but after a few days of thought and seeing some posts here I think I'm just taking barkely and gonna ride or die with him 

Edited by Savatage79

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On 8/5/2019 at 9:16 AM, Savatage79 said:

So who else is struggling a little with a #1 coming up? 

I realize like mentioned some of the big guns who had great seasons despite having bad teams, but what is the probability, it's definitely lower. 

Last year giants were bad but obviously Barkley rolled hard, but sending OBJ down field had to attribute some to that, they were a bad team but with a mega star wr that defenders had to respect regardless of Elis duck passes. 

I was dead set on Barkley when I first learned I had a #1, but as we sneak closer I'm just torn a bit... I need you guys to reel me back in on Barkley, or are alot of you feeling you truly can't go wrong with CMC or Kamara at 1?

 

Gotta go with your gut and avoid risk at #1.  I had #1 a few years ago in 2016 and chose David Johnson over AP, Gurley and Zeke, all who were ranked ahead of him.  Felt DJ was the safest at the time and he ended up finishing #1. I'm at #1 again this year and feel Saquon is safest.  Too many bigger question marks with the other options right now.

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So I won the draft lottery twice in a row. Last year I debated hard and almost didn’t take Gurley first pick but did.  Now I’m staring a Barkley but his situation on a bad offense worries me more.  I’m feeling like CMC is the guy to go #1 in a ppr.  Someone talk me off the ledge please.  

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1 hour ago, dlionsfan901 said:

So I won the draft lottery twice in a row. Last year I debated hard and almost didn’t take Gurley first pick but did.  Now I’m staring a Barkley but his situation on a bad offense worries me more.  I’m feeling like CMC is the guy to go #1 in a ppr.  Someone talk me off the ledge please.  

 

You deserve to be smacked for overthinking Gurley last year. This year is much tougher though. A biggest fear of mine with Barkley is the Giants deciding to lighten his load this year knowing dang well they basically have a 0% chance of winning a Super Bowl and maybe a 5% chance at making the playoffs.

 

I was surprised though that Barkley caught 91 balls last year. To me you can't go wrong with either one. McCaffrey's size always worries me, but it's yet to be an issue so...

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2 hours ago, dlionsfan901 said:

So I won the draft lottery twice in a row. Last year I debated hard and almost didn’t take Gurley first pick but did.  Now I’m staring a Barkley but his situation on a bad offense worries me more.  I’m feeling like CMC is the guy to go #1 in a ppr.  Someone talk me off the ledge please.  

CMC is the correct pick at 1. Higher floor and higher ceiling because he doesn’t play in a potential dumpster fire of an offense 

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5 hours ago, Gohawks said:

CMC is the correct pick at 1. Higher floor and higher ceiling because he doesn’t play in a potential dumpster fire of an offense 

Cam being healthy again worries me, he loves... Loves to run those gl tds in and while cmc is a beast and is on a better team, I still find that pure volume for Barkley is why he's probably who overall #1 should be still but I am all for hearing more sides of arguments touting cmc and ak for first pick

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On 8/5/2019 at 10:16 AM, Savatage79 said:

So who else is struggling a little with a #1 coming up? 

I realize like mentioned some of the big guns who had great seasons despite having bad teams, but what is the probability, it's definitely lower. 

Last year giants were bad but obviously Barkley rolled hard, but sending OBJ down field had to attribute some to that, they were a bad team but with a mega star wr that defenders had to respect regardless of Elis duck passes. 

I was dead set on Barkley when I first learned I had a #1, but as we sneak closer I'm just torn a bit... I need you guys to reel me back in on Barkley, or are alot of you feeling you truly can't go wrong with CMC or Kamara at 1?

Barkley had 3 of those 9 40+ plays in the 4 games OBJ didn't play.

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1 hour ago, Savatage79 said:

Cam being healthy again worries me, he loves... Loves to run those gl tds in and while cmc is a beast and is on a better team, I still find that pure volume for Barkley is why he's probably who overall #1 should be still but I am all for hearing more sides of arguments touting cmc and ak for first pick

Vulture potential is the only risk with CMC or AK.  The overall production will be there for sure, but it's frustrating as hell to watch Cam and Latavius (formerly Ingram) steal GL TDs.  At least with Barkley that's not an issue. 

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7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

CMC is the correct pick at 1. Higher floor and higher ceiling because he doesn’t play in a potential dumpster fire of an offense 

Is it a higher ceiling?  Can he really do even better than last year?

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22 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Barkley had 3 of those 9 40+ plays in the 4 games OBJ didn't play.

Good to know,, I couldn't remember. But that helps even more in making my choice 

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1 hour ago, Savatage79 said:

Cam being healthy again worries me, he loves... Loves to run those gl tds in and while cmc is a beast and is on a better team, I still find that pure volume for Barkley is why he's probably who overall #1 should be still but I am all for hearing more sides of arguments touting cmc and ak for first pick

 

In the same boat. if zeke signs i think you have to go zeke #1, if not i’m leaning more towards saquon. The offense won’t be as good but his numbers were so good last year even if he regresses he’s likely going to see 280-300 carries and another 70-90 receptions his floor is pretty stable. As for CMC the only thing that scares me is Cam stealing the TD rushes, i went back and looked at game logs, CMC scored his first rushing TD in week 7 i believe which is when Cam got hurt. Kamara in the other hand is safe as it gets but he’s got some bust games bc if they blow out another team Latavius is going to carry the ball. I do see a slight uptick in carries for Alvin Kamara but not significant maybe 210-220. 

 

End of the day its all first world problems whoever goes first overall is going to out up numbers. 

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2 hours ago, nyda88 said:

 

In the same boat. if zeke signs i think you have to go zeke #1, if not i’m leaning more towards saquon. The offense won’t be as good but his numbers were so good last year even if he regresses he’s likely going to see 280-300 carries and another 70-90 receptions his floor is pretty stable. As for CMC the only thing that scares me is Cam stealing the TD rushes, i went back and looked at game logs, CMC scored his first rushing TD in week 7 i believe which is when Cam got hurt. Kamara in the other hand is safe as it gets but he’s got some bust games bc if they blow out another team Latavius is going to carry the ball. I do see a slight uptick in carries for Alvin Kamara but not significant maybe 210-220. 

 

End of the day its all first world problems whoever goes first overall is going to out up numbers. 

I don't think you "have" to go Zeke.  Even if he signs, he's still a suspension risk at anytime given his off field conduct.  Sure, he's training now in Mexico, but he's not taking hits in practice.  His head's not in the game right now.  We're splitting hairs here amongst the top 4, assuming Zeke signs.  If Zeke weren't a question mark right now, anybody sitting at #4 would be happy to get whomever is left.

I think it's a matter of personal preference at this point.  Watching Barkley vids gets me giddy, so that's where I'm going.  CMC I think has surprised everybody with what he's been able to do.  Coming out of Stanford I recall there were questions of whether he was too small, too white, etc.  He's certainly proven everyone wrong. 

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4 hours ago, Chardo said:

As usual, I pick 4th in a year with 3 sure things.

 

You could take Nuk or Davante 4th and take your RB's in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  Very safe floor for those two WRs.  Also David Johnson could be awesome this year.  4th isn't that terrible.

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59 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

You could take Nuk or Davante 4th and take your RB's in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  Very safe floor for those two WRs.  Also David Johnson could be awesome this year.  4th isn't that terrible.

My league is skewed toward RBs.  Rushing TDs are more points than receiving.  Most years the entire first round is RBs. 

Edited by Chardo

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I've seen a lot of people act like this is a worst team last than last year and I disagree with that. They lost a very good WR but other than that they haven't taken too much hits.

Their line dramatically improved. They aquired Remmers who is below average at tackle but he is still an upgrade over last season. Zeitler is a great addition and was one of the best right guards in the league last season. Another thing to note is that there right side has a chance to be REALLY good this season. They had a full season to build chemistry and Solder actually started to somewhat pay off towards the end of season. Hernandez will have a year under his belt as well. Halapio is also someone I haven't seen talked about much. In his limited work at center last year before his injury he was damn good. The biggest problem last year wasn't their weapons it was their line and it wen't from bad to solid with a lot of potential. 

They drafted Jones as well. While I am not very high on him he's still damn better than what they had behind Eli last year. If Eli flops or gets hurt than at least they got a backup that won't totally be horrible. 

Then there's the addition of James Bettcher on defense as the DC. Even during their train wreck of a season last year where the defense was on the field for entire games they weren't terrible. The two years prior to that he had the Cardinals defense as a top 3 unit in the league. While I wouldn't go as far as saying the Giants defense got better due to key veteran losses they have the potential to be solid. 

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23 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I've seen a lot of people act like this is a worst team last than last year and I disagree with that. They lost a very good WR but other than that they haven't taken too much hits.

Their line dramatically improved. They aquired Remmers who is below average at tackle but he is still an upgrade over last season. Zeitler is a great addition and was one of the best right guards in the league last season. Another thing to note is that there right side has a chance to be REALLY good this season. They had a full season to build chemistry and Solder actually started to somewhat pay off towards the end of season. Hernandez will have a year under his belt as well. Halapio is also someone I haven't seen talked about much. In his limited work at center last year before his injury he was damn good. The biggest problem last year wasn't their weapons it was their line and it wen't from bad to solid with a lot of potential. 

They drafted Jones as well. While I am not very high on him he's still damn better than what they had behind Eli last year. If Eli flops or gets hurt than at least they got a backup that won't totally be horrible. 

 Then there's the addition of James Bettcher on defense as the DC. Even during their train wreck of a season last year where the defense was on the field for entire games they weren't terrible. The two years prior to that he had the Cardinals defense as a top 3 unit in the league. While I wouldn't go as far as saying the Giants defense got better due to key veteran losses they have the potential to be solid. 

 

How do you know Jones won't be totally horrible? Darnold, who I love this year, was pretty horrible for stretches last year so I  am not sure why Jones can't be horrible if given the starting job with no safety net (Eli getting hurt). 

Tate is out a few weeks, Engram can't block, Eli is horrible, outside of Sheppard they have no real WRs. The oline is definitely better and I fully expect Barkley to finish the year as a best RB, but that offense is still a HUGE question mark. 

Plus the defense is atrocious which usually means less rushing attempts for a RB but we all know that if the Giants are losing Barkley will just get 5-6 catches in the 2nd half instead of 12 carries so it's not really going to effect his value unless the defense has issues getting off the field. 

Either way, Barkley is amazing and will be the #1 RB this year so I don't really care that the Giants situation is a mess. 

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47 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

How do you know Jones won't be totally horrible? Darnold, who I love this year, was pretty horrible for stretches last year so I  am not sure why Jones can't be horrible if given the starting job with no safety net (Eli getting hurt). 

Tate is out a few weeks, Engram can't block, Eli is horrible, outside of Sheppard they have no real WRs. The oline is definitely better and I fully expect Barkley to finish the year as a best RB, but that offense is still a HUGE question mark. 

Plus the defense is atrocious which usually means less rushing attempts for a RB but we all know that if the Giants are losing Barkley will just get 5-6 catches in the 2nd half instead of 12 carries so it's not really going to effect his value unless the defense has issues getting off the field. 

Either way, Barkley is amazing and will be the #1 RB this year so I don't really care that the Giants situation is a mess. 

Jones is better than what they had last year.

As for the defense, atrocious is an overstatement. They just got a REALLY good DC and they have talent on that side of the field. It's not the Bucs or Raiders defense. They acually have 1 or 2 solid pieces at most positions. I wouldn't call the defense good or even average by any stretch but I also wouldn't say they're atrocious. 

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I know I’m rehashing the rehash, but with a new analogy perhaps:

 

What is the difference between Barkley this year and David Johnson last year? 

 

Not a ton from what I see.

 

Unless talked out of it, this is enough to make me pivot to Kamara at #1.

 

 

Edited by Proteus
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9 minutes ago, Proteus said:

I know I’m rehashing the rehash, but with a new analogy perhaps:

 

What is the difference between Barkley this year and David Johnson last year? 

 

Not a ton from what I see.

 

Unless talked out of it, this is enough to make me pivot to Kamara at #1.

 

 

Here are a few differences I see off the top of my head...

1. David Johnson missed practically all of 2017 and was thus coming off a missed season. Saquon isn't.
2. The 2018 Cardinals had a rookie head coach and inept offensive coordinator who was fired in the middle of the prior season. Johnson no longer had Bruce Arians in charge. The Giants have the same HC/OC across 2018--2019.
3. The 2018 Cardinals had a terrible offensive line. The Giants are perceived to have improved their offensive line headed into 2019.
4. The 2018 Cardinals had a rookie quarterback who was historically bad...bad enough for the team to trade him despite having spent the #10 overall pick in the 2018 draft. The Giants have (for better or worse) a staff committed to keeping the same quarterback in place that Saquon succeeded with last season.

 

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3 minutes ago, Proteus said:

I know I’m rehashing the rehash, but with a new analogy perhaps:

 

What is the difference between Barkley this year and David Johnson last year? 

 

Not a ton from what I see.

 

Unless talked out of it, this is enough to make me pivot to Kamara at #1.

 

 

 

Adding to what @Corleone stated:

The Giants offensive line is critically undervalued. I think they will have a big season. 

Eli has been lights out in camp. So has Daniel Jones. Eli > Bradford. Daniel Jones > Rosen.

Things can change so fast in the NFL year over year, but on paper, the Giants have an easier schedule in 2019 than the Cardinals had in 2018. The Cards first 11 games featured 7 teams that eventually made the playoffs. This year, the Giants will face 4 playoff teams from last year in their first 11 games. This includes a potential Zeke holdout and two games against the 'Boys in that timespan.

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1 minute ago, Proteus said:

What is the difference between Barkley this year and David Johnson last year? 

1) The O-line isn't anywhere near as bad.

2) The offense as a whole isn't nearly as bad. NY scored 9p/g more last year.

3) They have many passing plays specifically designed for Barkley.

4) They will utilized said plays more often.

5) They have more than one 'run up the middle into the non-existent hole' running play.

6) Eli, though lacking skill, is much better than Rosen if just by experience alone.

 

Is Barkley's situation optimal? No. But it isn't as dire as DJ's last year.

 

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1 hour ago, Proteus said:

I know I’m rehashing the rehash, but with a new analogy perhaps:

 

What is the difference between Barkley this year and David Johnson last year? 

 

Not a ton from what I see.

 

Unless talked out of it, this is enough to make me pivot to Kamara at #1.

 

 

I owned DJ last year so this thought crossed my mind but there's a ton of differences that have already been pointed out. Just because you are on a bad team doesn't make your situation automatically horrible. Giants have a decent line, servicable QB, and servicable coach. Is this great? No, not really but it also isn't an awful line, awful QB, and awful coach. Barkley only really needs servicable to be elite.

As for Kamara, I only expect Kamara to get around 270 touches. Around 190 rushes and 80 receptions. They signed Murray for a reason and there's no indication of them wanting to hand Kamara the ball 200+ times. With Barkley, I expect 350+ touches on the season. So if you think Kamara is going to be 20%-30% more efficent with his touches go for it but I don't see it especially with Barkley likely getting a lot more GL work.

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