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Derrius Guice 2019 Outlook


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11 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

"I’ve told him one time, ‘Man, you got to take it easy.’ But it’s hard to do that," Thompson said of Guice. "He’s just one of those guys, he’s a freak. He’s a freak of nature. I honestly think he’s going to have a recovery process like AP did."

"We’re planning on him being the guy this year," Thompson said of Guice.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/redskins/chris-thompson-told-derrius-guice-take-it-easy-working-his-way-back-knee-injury

pulled from that article......he confirms what I said himself....lol "they forgot"

 

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Rotoworld on Sunday:  the Redskins aren't likely to make Guice a workhorse in 2019 given his injury history. Guice is a bench stash and low-end flex play for those in trouble. Rotoworl

Try watching it again once you sober up a bit.

Competitive leagues don't have IR spots I think Callahan dramatically lowers his value. If it was still Gruden I'd be on the train. But Callahan is an old school coach that will likely stick wit

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16 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

www.google.com yields many results on this discussion...to include several in depth youtube videos.  Gil Brandt ranked them 1 & 2 immediately following the draft as well. There were multiple sources that actually preferred Guice to Saquon.  The dude is an instant pro bowl talent. He's not going to hold AP's jock on the sidelines. AP will be the one giving Guice a blow when needed. The market for AP was minimal, therefor he re-signed. They drafted Guice to be THE guy and they lost out on an entire season of it. That won't happen again if he's 100. Pretty simple stuff. 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000934005/article/saquon-barkley-derrius-guice-will-lead-rookie-running-backs

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/17/17247560/derrius-guice-saquon-barkley-2018-nfl-draft

https://www.nj.com/eagles/2018/04/nfl_draft_2018_is_derrius_guice_a_better_runner_than_saquon.html

https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2018/02/04/scot-mccloughan-preferred-derrius-guice-to-saquon-barkley/

i agree, as everyone would, washington drafted guice to be the guy. guice is talented, and had he not taken the backseat to fournette at LSU, we would've seen even more of his talent. hopefully he heals well, doesn't get carpel-tunnel from his fortnight addiction, and we receive good reports through camp and solidity in preseason.

but let's be realistic regarding the 2018 links you've posted and the implications: one article from may, two from april, and one from february 2018 have been rendered obsolete: 20/20 hindsight reveals that saquon barkley did not simply demonstrate talent as a rookie, he continually showed otherworldy skill. the inclusion of the articles implies that the two RBs are comparable; they are not. one is returning from an injury that was originally aggravated (hyper-extended) in college; positive health reports will push his ADP up to the rounds 2-3 range. the other RB is coming off of a 2000+ all-purpose yard rookie season where defenses had no answer and he will be one of the first 3 players drafted this coming season.

last season, barkley finished 11th in overall points (standard, FantasyPros), ahead of dak, phillip rivers, and cam newton. in PPR, barkley was second only to patrick mahomes in fantasy points.  considering most leagues use week-by-week scoring (not year-end totals), half the fantasy season barkley rushed for 100+ yards, and his rushing/receiving totals met or exceeded 100 yards in 15 of 17 games.

also, while guice was drafted to be the guy, he wasn't drafted to be the guy who receives the ball (32 receptions as a tiger over 3 years), and while thompson's ribs and back seem to be made of glass, his hands are iron. along with his returning from an injury, his lack of breadth is a big concern about guice, as pointed out in several of last year's articles: he's a runner, but he's not a receiver, and this limits his overall production significantly, especially if washington is playing from behind: as many opportunties landon collins makes (and possible rogers-cromartie), case keenum might undermine the success of the defense. consider: if guice returns healthy and plays 16 games, what can we expect? 270 touches for 1250 yards and 7 TDs? seems like a healthy season for a talented RB in a troubled offense. also, these were adrian peterson's numbers in 2018.

17 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Seeing what we saw last year it will be tough to come close to the talent Barkley is.

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12 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

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I think his point was simply to remind the fantasy community of how highly regarded Guice was coming out of college, with many ranking Guice behind only Barkley. I’m pretty sure he wasn’t trying to spark a current  “Guice vs Barkley” debate.

Hopefully in a couple years that debate could be fun again, but having such a debate right now would lead to nothing more than turning the Derrius Guice thread into another Barkley thread. Pretty tough to argue a case built on potential vs one built on proven performance.

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1 hour ago, Sack Exchange said:

also, while guice was drafted to be the guy, he wasn't drafted to be the guy who receives the ball (32 receptions as a tiger over 3 years), and while thompson's ribs and back seem to be made of glass, his hands are iron. along with his returning from an injury, his lack of breadth is a big concern about guice, as pointed out in several of last year's articles: he's a runner, but he's not a receiver, and this limits his overall production significantly

this is an absolutely false narrative with zero backing. LSU perennially underutilized rb's out of the backfield. As outlined pages back in this thread Guice has shined at every level when given a shot at catching the ball. Don't post things as gospel when they don't hold water  

1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

I think his point was simply to remind the fantasy community of how highly regarded Guice was coming out of college, with many ranking Guice behind only Barkley. I’m pretty sure he wasn’t trying to spark a current  “Guice vs Barkley” debate.

Hopefully in a couple years that debate could be fun again, but having such a debate right now would lead to nothing more than turning the Derrius Guice thread into another Barkley thread. Pretty tough to argue a case built on potential vs one built on proven performance.

This ^^

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1 hour ago, Joe Odam said:

this is an absolutely false narrative with zero backing. LSU perennially underutilized rb's out of the backfield. As outlined pages back in this thread Guice has shined at every level when given a shot at catching the ball. Don't post things as gospel when they don't hold water 

you obviously seem offended, which was not the intention of my post. i just do not see guice and barkley as close as the #1 drafted and #2 drafted RBs, this implied by three of the four of the articles you posted. in fact, since the articles are obsolete, three incorrectly assumed guice would go as RB#2, and instead we saw penny and michel. i do see guice as highly skilled, and i'm suprised we saw him drop to pick #59 overall. in addition to being a great runner, guice has overcome much in his life and has demonstrated a solid work ethic. i'm excited to see guice play pro ball, and i'm thinking you and i see eye to eye this. but for me the bottom line is, there is a looooong way between the #1 RB in the 2018 class and the #s 2, 3, and 4... it is a barkley-sized gap.

regarding "Don't post things as gospel when they don't hold water," welcome to rotoworld, where 99% of participants treat their posts as gospel. i find your post unclear as to exactly what you're referring to as my "gospel," because the emphasis in the post seems to be on guice's receiving ability, but my comment "chris thompson's hands are iron" is what you chose to bold. i'll address both.

for guice's receiving, you make a good point: lsu has not pushed the pass to RBs. but my point is that chris thompson is a proven commodity, and guice's hands are not. when you say, "Guice has shined at every level when given a shot at catching the ball", noting he's only caught 31 passes in 35 games, is this a sufficient sample size to claim reliability as a receiver compared to thompson? https://www.footballdb.com/college-football/players/derrius-guice-guice0002

. chris thompson on the other hand has a 76.86% catch rate over his last four years in the nfl (netting 164 receptions); his hands have a proven record as a pro: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThomCh03.htm

. it seems improbable that a front office would look at guice's 31 receptions over 35 games and think, "he's our next 3-down back / he's our receiving back."

i hope he's healthy and recovers to 100%, and then i hope guice develops into a monster, and like dallas with zeke (averaging 29 receptions in his first two years, and now in his third year netting 77 receptions) i can see washington working on guice's hands and turning him into a more well-rounded RB, but to believe that guice will enter the nfl----this, his first full season----as an everydown RB, seems short-sighted. my opinion.

 

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Derrius Guice, PPR machine?

In speaking with Jay Gruden about Guice, Gruden expressed optimism about Guice being ready for 2019, and mentioned one of the things he really liked about him was, "He doesn't have to come off the field on third down." Gruden expanded on that, saying that though LSU never really used him in the pass game, the Redskins discovered last year in practice and OTAs that's he's a really good pass-catcher, and they will use him in that role this season.

 

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/26133969/fantasy-football-15-things-learned-2019-nfl-combine

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1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Derrius Guice, PPR machine?

In speaking with Jay Gruden about Guice, Gruden expressed optimism about Guice being ready for 2019, and mentioned one of the things he really liked about him was, "He doesn't have to come off the field on third down." Gruden expanded on that, saying that though LSU never really used him in the pass game, the Redskins discovered last year in practice and OTAs that's he's a really good pass-catcher, and they will use him in that role this season.

 

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/26133969/fantasy-football-15-things-learned-2019-nfl-combine

 

And then they resigned AP to a 2 year deal. It looks like Guice will slowly be worked back in after the ACL tear. Washington can pound AP all they want as he is a short term option.

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41 minutes ago, FISH20 said:

 

And then they resigned AP to a 2 year deal. It looks like Guice will slowly be worked back in after the ACL tear. Washington can pound AP all they want as he is a short term option.

 

Yup, makes perfect sense. Having AP there takes all the pressure off Guice. He seems to be handling rehab and the bigger picture like a pro. Last thing anyone wants is for Guice to be pressured back onto the field before he’s 100% ready, because once he’s ready he’s going to be elite.

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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

Yup, makes perfect sense. Having AP there takes all the pressure off Guice. He seems to be handling rehab and the bigger picture like a pro. Last thing anyone wants is for Guice to be pressured back onto the field before he’s 100% ready, because once he’s ready he’s going to be elite.

Yep, great for Guice's dynasty prospects. It murkies the water a bit in redraft, however. As an above poster mentioned, this seems similar to the Browns last year with Chubb/Hyde. 

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13 hours ago, FISH20 said:

 

And then they resigned AP to a 2 year deal. It looks like Guice will slowly be worked back in after the ACL tear. Washington can pound AP all they want as he is a short term option.

 

Wich is probably why AP resigned, he knows he has a legit chance to be the primary starter as guice rehabs. 

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Wich is probably why AP resigned, he knows he has a legit chance to be the primary starter as guice rehabs. 

by the time the season starts, Guice won't be rehabbing any more. He will have rehabbed...past tense. Watch his training videos and you'll confirm that. He's a freak

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4 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

by the time the season starts, Guice won't be rehabbing any more. He will have rehabbed...past tense. Watch his training videos and you'll confirm that. He's a freak

 

I can't recall in recent memory any starting rb who lost an entire season to an ACL had multiple surgeries and was back ready to go full throttle in week 1.

Training videos are cute but they don't show you how he plants and cuts in game which puts the most stress and strin on the knee.

I appreciate your optimism but not sure history is on your side.

Right now he is a zero rb candidate for me, the cheaper he is the more interested i am in rostering him👁️

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

I can't recall in recent memory any starting rb who lost an entire season to an ACL had multiple surgeries and was back ready to go full throttle in week 1.

Training videos are cute but they don't show you how he plants and cuts in game which puts the most stress and strin on the knee.

I appreciate your optimism but not sure history is on your side.

Right now he is a zero rb candidate for me, the cheaper he is the more interested i am in rostering him👁️

 

Ironically, ADP had like the fastest ACL recovery of all time.

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3 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Ironically, ADP had like the fastest ACL recovery of all time.

He has been the sole case of such a short recovery time and also being highly productive coming back from an ACL injury the next season. He had his 2000 yard rushing campaign coming back from the ACL injury.

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6 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

by the time the season starts, Guice won't be rehabbing any more. He will have rehabbed...past tense. Watch his training videos and you'll confirm that. He's a freak

Have we even seen him cut in a training video yet?

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I'm sure D'Onta Freeman was also releasing training videos and contributed zero production to the 2018 season. Different injuries, but Guice's ACL injury wasn't as simple as most ACL injuries. He suffered setbacks and multiple surgeries.

I tend to be pessimistic about these injury timelines though.

 

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guys the season start FIVE MONTHS from now. lol Be forward thinkers and extrapolate his recovery. Based on his progress to date where do you suspect he'll be in September? Me...barring setback I'm calling my shot now....he will be 100 week 1. 

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10 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

guys the season start FIVE MONTHS from now. lol Be forward thinkers and extrapolate his recovery. Based on his progress to date where do you suspect he'll be in September? Me...barring setback I'm calling my shot now....he will be 100 week 1. 

 

You do realize you hedged your emphatically bold statement 😝

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8 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

guys the season start FIVE MONTHS from now. lol Be forward thinkers and extrapolate his recovery. Based on his progress to date where do you suspect he'll be in September? Me...barring setback I'm calling my shot now....he will be 100 week 1. 

I’m with you, though even if he’s 100% they might not fully unleash him right away on week 1. Seems to make sense to let him share the load for a couple games and see how the knee responds to the rigors of an actual game. If it responds well, unleash the beast.

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11 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

You do realize you hedged your emphatically bold statement 😝

fair observation

10 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I’m with you, though even if he’s 100% they might not fully unleash him right away on week 1. Seems to make sense to let him share the load for a couple games and see how the knee responds to the rigors of an actual game. If it responds well, unleash the beast.

I could see them running the ball 30+ times a game as a team. I could see his efficiency per touch keep him in the rb2 conversation even if he did split. If he gets the bellcow role, he's a locked in 1

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16 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

fair observation

I could see them running the ball 30+ times a game as a team. I could see his efficiency per touch keep him in the rb2 conversation even if he did split. If he gets the bellcow role, he's a locked in 1

 

What kind of team/offense to you project for Washington in 2019? I think they will be behind most games and not in the top half of scoring offenses. Guice is the backup to AP for at least the first quarter of the year. IMO he is an upside handcuff with more value in keeper leagues.

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2 hours ago, FISH20 said:

 

What kind of team/offense to you project for Washington in 2019? I think they will be behind most games and not in the top half of scoring offenses. Guice is the backup to AP for at least the first quarter of the year. IMO he is an upside handcuff with more value in keeper leagues.

well they averaged 26 rush attempts (14th in the NFL)  last year with zero rb depth behind AP, so an additional 4 carries isn't exactly a hot take with a healthy Guice. I'm curious as to why everyone is so sure that AP will start the season as the starter. As of now that's a baseless assumption

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58 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

well they averaged 26 rush attempts (14th in the NFL)  last year with zero rb depth behind AP, so an additional 4 carries isn't exactly a hot take with a healthy Guice. I'm curious as to why everyone is so sure that AP will start the season as the starter. As of now that's a baseless assumption

 

because currently guice is rehabbing so it's safe to assume as of today until he is cleared he will not begin the season as the primary ball carrier.  the minute he is medically cleared to full participation and not on a count or wearing a special no contact jersey you can assume he will compete for primary role

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