munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

 

 

Are we all watching the same guy?  I see nothing but explosion and power.  Tackle breaking, beating DB's with his speed, running guys over.  Agree to disagree I guess.

 

Lol I kno I'm a hypocrite. He runs hard and explosive and break tackles like a machine and I dont like him but I like Henry. I think it's that browns Jersey honestly 

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The 5.1 ypc is a little deceiving too. You look at his final 10 games where he was starting but take out weeks 10 and 17 as good and bad outliers, and he had a 4.2 ypc. If you look at his carries over that time and project that out over 16 games even ... since nobody wants to account for Kareem Hunt's midseason addition... he's at 275 carries. Even if you could say he'd keep it up all season long as if Kareem Hunt is some nobody scrub, that's 1155 rushing yards, and he's not adding a heck of a lot as a pass catcher. Let's say he gets about 30 catches for 245 yards, we're looking at 1400 total yards....and I'll say 12 total TDs. Even these numbers place him just behind Freeman outside my top 15, and that presumes he keeps it up every week never getting hurt and not giving up anything to Kareem. Take off about 100 yards just to account for some loss and I have him behind Aaron Jones an Kerryon Johnson as well.

I don't see where these top 10 RB projections are coming from, and if you say PFF one more time I'll scream. 

Edited by Jags02

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38 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

The 5.1 ypc is a little deceiving too. You look at his final 10 games where he was starting but take out weeks 10 and 17 as good and bad outliers, and he had a 4.2 ypc. 

You have been unbelievably bad at math in these forums lately.

 

163 carries for 796 yards = 4.88 ypc

 

That's if you believe in that terrible way of predicting season totals.

 

 

EDIT: I see you meant the games he started.

 

Okay it's 4.3 so idk where you get 4.2, but somehow you see 4.3 as a bad average AFTER taking out his best game?

Edited by RMJ_12

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I like what I see. I'll be honest, I also see a very effective O-line, but I don't really care. Yardage is yardage.

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I'm not sure what's not to like. Even the addition of Hunt late season doesn't phase me. Chubb is going mid-late 2nd round. In most mock drafts, as someone's RB2. Paired up with a Kamara, Barkley or McCaffrey, and after 2nd round WR's like Beckham, JuJu, and Thomas.

I typically don't like starting off the draft with two RB's, I got burned in the past with Dalvin Cook and Jordan Howard (2yrs ago). But I can be persuaded, and quite possibly this year.

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48 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You have been unbelievably bad at math in these forums lately.

 

163 carries for 796 yards = 4.88 ypc

 

That's if you believe in that terrible way of predicting season totals.

 

 

EDIT: I see you meant the games he started.

 

Okay it's 4.3 so idk where you get 4.2, but somehow you see 4.3 as a bad average AFTER taking out his best game?

 

 

  • Week 7 --- 18 carries for 80 yards
  • Week 8 --- 18 carries for 65 yards
  • Week 9 --- 22 carries for 85 yards
  • Week 12 -- 28 carries for 84 yards
  • Week 13 --- 9 carries for 31 yards
  • Week 14 -- 13 carries for 66 yards
  • Week 15 -- 20 carries for 100 yards
  • Week 16 -- 19 carries for 112 yards

 

All toll over 8 games that's 147 carries for 623 yards which work out to 4,24 yards per carry

Now I never said that was bad. It's just not as good as other guys including Aaron Jones and Kerryon Johnson. 

 

 

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50 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

Now I never said that was bad. It's just not as good as other guys including Aaron Jones and Kerryon Johnson. 

Your process of coming up with projections is extremely odd.

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23 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Your process of coming up with projections is extremely odd.

 

What's so odd about removing an outlier that's not indicative of what how he typically produces? The Falcons had a garbage defense last year that was easily exploited. I have the same feeling when I see any RB have a huge game against the Raiders or Dolphins. 

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10 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

What's so odd about removing an outlier that's not indicative of what how he typically produces? The Falcons had a garbage defense last year that was easily exploited. I have the same feeling when I see any RB have a huge game against the Raiders or Dolphins. 

When a player has a good game that doesn't make it an outlier.  Those games happen.  Especially for talented players.  Nobody expects Chubb to average 5.1 ypc again.  The problem is you didn't just exclude his best game as a starter, you excluded every game that he didn't start also.  You know like the game he had over 100 yards on 3 carries.  Take away enough "outliers" and every RB looks like sh*-

 

He averaged 2 receptions per game in his starts.  32 receptions isn't great but it sure isn't "nothing".

 

The Browns offense is going to be much better this season as a whole.  Nick Chubb has the potential to score 12+ TD's as the starter.

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44 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

What's so odd about removing an outlier that's not indicative of what how he typically produces?

 

They're not outliers. 

An outlier is an event / data point so unlike the rest of the sample, so statistically unlikely, that it can be removed to make the data more accurate...or precise.

Nick Chubb wears on defenses then breaks massive runs with his breakaway speed.

It's like saying "Oh, if Derrick Henry didn't have all those TDs, he wouldn't be as good.  He's bound to regress."  When in fact that's part of Henry's game and his offense.  Same with Henry and big plays.  Chubb is a big play machine.

 

Kerryon Johnson and Aaron Jones also had their fair share of big runs.  Did you factor those out?

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

They're not outliers. 

 

That one game with 3 rushes for 105 yards and 2 tds might be an outlier lol

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24 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

That one game with 3 rushes for 105 yards and 2 tds might be an outlier lol

That wasn't even included, along with his best game as a starter

Edited by RMJ_12

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5 hours ago, dropshadows said:

I'm not sure what's not to like. Even the addition of Hunt late season doesn't phase me.

Wow. You think they're just going to sit a guy like Hunt as a backup when he's available to play? Or just get a token carry or two?  I have no idea but that seems unlikely to me. You may be right and if you draft him have the wins to prove it, but it's a gutsy move. Not Gurley level gutsy, but gutsy. 

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1 hour ago, bomont said:

Wow. You think they're just going to sit a guy like Hunt as a backup when he's available to play? Or just get a token carry or two?  I have no idea but that seems unlikely to me.

Hunt is making around $500,000 this year with no guaranteed money.  He can be dumped whenever the Browns want(in case he screws up again).  They have nothing invested in him and he will likely be a backup to Chubb in 2019.

 

How do we know Kareem Hunt wasn't also a product of the Andy Reid system?

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27 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Hunt is making around $500,000 this year with no guaranteed money.  He can be dumped whenever the Browns want(in case he screws up again).  They have nothing invested in him and he will likely be a backup to Chubb in 2019.

 

How do we know Kareem Hunt wasn't also a product of the Andy Reid system?

 

He probably was a product of Andy reid atleast a little. 

But if the browns didnt want to use him why sign him. He had just got kicked off his last team for punting a girl in the stomach. Why sign all that drama if you just want him to ride pine?

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42 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Hunt is making around $500,000 this year with no guaranteed money.  He can be dumped whenever the Browns want(in case he screws up again).  They have nothing invested in him and he will likely be a backup to Chubb in 2019.

 

How do we know Kareem Hunt wasn't also a product of the Andy Reid system?

 

Let's at least get the facts straight. Hunt is making $1.1 mil on the year including $275,000 guaranteed plus $25,000 for every game he's active for. 

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24 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

He probably was a product of Andy reid atleast a little. 

But if the browns didnt want to use him why sign him. He had just got kicked off his last team for punting a girl in the stomach. Why sign all that drama if you just want him to ride pine?

Remember this is the Browns were talking. For a couple years they had more arrests than wins per season.

And it's not as if half the teams in the league wouldn't gladly do the same: if it works he's cheap, if you need to cut bait you can do it at any time. The only advantage is that now his uniform is already partially orange.

Edited by Boudewijn

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Hunt is making around $500,000 this year with no guaranteed money.  He can be dumped whenever the Browns want(in case he screws up again).  They have nothing invested in him and he will likely be a backup to Chubb in 2019.

 

How do we know Kareem Hunt wasn't also a product of the Andy Reid system?

So they won't use him because he isn't making much?  That doesn't make any sense.

And I don't think you put up a 4.7 YPC just by being "a product of the system." The guy is very talented. Maybe he's there mostly as insurance against a Chubb injury, but it all seems dicey to me...

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1 hour ago, Jags02 said:

 

Let's at least get the facts straight. Hunt is making $1.1 mil on the year including $275,000 guaranteed plus $25,000 for every game he's active for. 

Wrong again, my friend.  He earned 1.1 mil if he wasn't suspended.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2825870-browns-kareem-hunt-suspended-8-games-for-violating-nfl-personal-conduct-policy.amp.html

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27 minutes ago, bomont said:

So they won't use him because he isn't making much?  That doesn't make any sense.

And I don't think you put up a 4.7 YPC just by being "a product of the system." The guy is very talented. Maybe he's there mostly as insurance against a Chubb injury, but it all seems dicey to me...

Well, John Dorsey is the one who drafted Hunt so he signed him.  That doesn't mean the coaches have to use him much.  They also signed him because he agreed to such a small contract and base pay.

 

He could be used but I think it will come more at the expense of Duke than Chubb.

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They could have signed many other players for a small contact, so that doesn't mean much. 

They couldn't have gotten anyone with anywhere near the talent for that price, that's why they signed him. Maybe you're right and he squeezes Johnson out though, I just don't have a good feeling about it. You don't let that much talent sit. 

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How much would another team be willing to sell to get Hunt midseason if he shines in week 7? I think Dorsey has a good chance of making Hunt into one of the cheapest draft picks in awhile, especially if a perennial contender loses their RB or has a run game that isn't clicking.

 

Edit: s---, Hunt is suspended 8 games. So much for my tinfoil hat conspiracies.

Edited by hoppychokes

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Hunt is going to get his carries once activated. I think he’ll be eased in the first 2-3 weeks, but I’d wager that the by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, he’s going to have a significant effect on Chubb. If Chubb wants to keep Hunt on the bench (if possible), he’s going to have to be a weekly billy-bad-a** for Cleveland. 

I’m Chubb owner in a keeper league, and I’m quite concerned about Hunt’s presence. 

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3 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

If we're talking about team expectations, it matters more that they initially signed him for $1.1 mil plus incentives. That's where they decided his worth is.

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2 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

How much would another team be willing to sell to get Hunt midseason if he shines in week 7? I think Dorsey has a good chance of making Hunt into one of the cheapest draft picks in awhile, especially if a perennial contender loses their RB or has a run game that isn't clicking.

 

Edit: s---, Hunt is suspended 8 games. So much for my tinfoil hat conspiracies.

 

Actually... no need to edit... keep going.

I keep thinking they'll trade Duke at the deadline knowing Hunt will soon be joining them, but maybe they'll just trade Hunt instead if Duke and Chubb are working out good together. Let's just say, they have options and a habit for trading away RBs at the deadline. 

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