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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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54 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

If we're talking about team expectations, it matters more that they initially signed him for $1.1 mil plus incentives. That's where they decided his worth is.

You're acting like that's a lot of $ for some reason.

 

For instance, Alfred Blue just signed a similar contract in Jacksonville.

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

You're acting like that's a lot of $ for some reason.

 

For instance, Alfred Blue just signed a similar contract in Jacksonville.

 

It's not much. I was just clarifying the facts. When you said $500,000 with no guarantees, I knew he had to be getting more than the rookie minimum. 

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16 hours ago, bomont said:

Wow. You think they're just going to sit a guy like Hunt as a backup when he's available to play? Or just get a token carry or two?  I have no idea but that seems unlikely to me. You may be right and if you draft him have the wins to prove it, but it's a gutsy move. Not Gurley level gutsy, but gutsy. 

I didn't say they were going to sit him, not even close.

I'll take 8 weeks of Nick Chubb (lol sorry that sounds funny). Hard for me to imagine a scenario where Hunt completely takes over if Chubb is a part of a positively-working offense. I'm trying to think of a past scenario where this has happened; a starting running back who is killing it, sits now after 8 weeks for a newly added player. Can anyone help me out?

Also, 8 weeks gives me enough time to figure out my line-up and what works. By then I doubt Nick Chubb as my 2nd pick is the only reason for my team's productivity. I don't think it's very "gutsy".

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1 hour ago, dropshadows said:

Hard for me to imagine a scenario where Hunt completely takes over if Chubb is a part of a positively-working offense.

You could have a 2-headed monster, like Kamara/Ingram in the good weeks. On the other hand, you could also end up with the wrong one; or if you're feeling kinky and you get into handcuffs, you might up with 2 barely usable backs. In either case, not what you want during the play-offs.

Some warning labels apply, methinks.

Edited by Boudewijn
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1 hour ago, dropshadows said:

I didn't say they were going to sit him, not even close.

I'll take 8 weeks of Nick Chubb (lol sorry that sounds funny). Hard for me to imagine a scenario where Hunt completely takes over if Chubb is a part of a positively-working offense. I'm trying to think of a past scenario where this has happened; a starting running back who is killing it, sits now after 8 weeks for a newly added player. Can anyone help me out?

Also, 8 weeks gives me enough time to figure out my line-up and what works. By then I doubt Nick Chubb as my 2nd pick is the only reason for my team's productivity. I don't think it's very "gutsy".

 

? I didn't say Chubb would sit, I just think there's a good chance Hunt cuts into his carries enough to really screw up Chubb's value for a significant part of the season. You said "what's not to like".......that's what. And since you aren't going to get Chubb cheaply, yeah, I think he's a very gutsy player to draft/buy. If you think you can win with your RB2 or possibly RB1 only giving you 8 weeks of pts at a RB1 or RB2 level, go for it. I think that's really shaky ground you're on though. And you have to pursue Hunt aggressively in the draft too. Just seems like more headache and risk than it's worth. But maybe things will occur between now and draft day which will clear things up. Personally I'd love to see them trade Hunt for a variety of reasons.

Edited by bomont

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4 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

You could have a 2-headed monster, like Kamara/Ingram in the good weeks. On the other hand, you could also end up with the wrong one; or if you're feeling kinky and you get into handcuffs, you might up with 2 barely usable backs. In either case, not what you want during the play-offs.

Some warning labels apply, methinks.

Exactly!

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18 minutes ago, bomont said:

And since you aren't going to get Chubb cheaply, yeah, I think he's a very gutsy player to draft/buy.

He's priced very appropriately.  Why does Chubb (the guy who had over 100 yards on 3 carries) need a huge workload to be good?  He'll still be the goal line back.  He'll still get plenty of touches whether Hunt is involved or not.

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I have no idea what "priced very appropriately" means since diff people have diff price values in mind. What other RBs do you consider of similar value?

If you don't think Hunt will cut into his touches significantly, OK you may be right, but his 3/100 is a ridiculous outlier that hardly backs any argument that losing a lot of touches won't matter.

Bottom line we currently have no way of knowing how much Hunt will or won't cut into his numbers. It's a big risk, that's all I'm saying. 

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10 minutes ago, bomont said:

hardly backs any argument that losing a lot of touches won't matter.

I can't believe there actually is an argument that he will lose "a lot" of touches.  He's the starting RB for a potential top 5 offense.  If he loses a significant amount of work to Hunt it's because he was a bust all season, then it won't really matter that much anyway.  I see it differently.

 

The point of mentioning the 3 carry 100 yard game was to show you he doesn't need 20 carries per game to succeed.  He'll be just fine if he loses a few touches to Hunt come week 15 and 16.

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With a guy like Hunt in the wings, I don't get what you don't get, i.e. why WOULDN'T you use him for more than just a token carry or two?  Gives teams 2 RBs to prep for vs 1, saves wear and tear on Chubb, etc. Unless you think Hunt isn't really all that. 

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5 minutes ago, bomont said:

With a guy like Hunt in the wings, I don't get what you don't get, i.e. why WOULDN'T you use him for more than just a token carry or two?

Because Chubb is better...

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So if you have two good backs, you let one sit vs using them both because one is better? ?? So the Falcons shouldn't have been using Coleman hardly at all then? 

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26 minutes ago, bomont said:

So if you have two good backs, you let one sit vs using them both because one is better? ?? So the Falcons shouldn't have been using Coleman hardly at all then? 

You mean when Freeman was a top 10 back and they still used Tevin Coleman?  Thanks for making my point!

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I'll agree that there's reason to be a little concerned, but it's not enough concern for me to ignore the potential of a monster season.

Can't think of a better example than Kamara/Ingram.
How nervous were people drafting Kamara in the 1st round last year knowing Ingram would be back in Week 5?

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I don’t see any problem with drafting both Chubb and Hunt other than losing that roster spot. For the first 10 weeks you should have a top RB and if Chubb goes down then u have a golden handcuff. Hunt’s getting drafted right around other handcuffs/lottery tickets like Latavius Murray, Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson and Rashaad Penny. If I go Chubb I’d rather lock up that Browns backfield then take one of those guys 

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2 hours ago, 30Burger said:

I don’t see any problem with drafting both Chubb and Hunt other than losing that roster spot. For the first 10 weeks you should have a top RB and if Chubb goes down then u have a golden handcuff. Hunt’s getting drafted right around other handcuffs/lottery tickets like Latavius Murray, Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson and Rashaad Penny. If I go Chubb I’d rather lock up that Browns backfield then take one of those guys 

Kareem Hunt should not be drafted unless you have a pretty large amount of bench spots.

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3 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

You mean when Freeman was a top 10 back and they still used Tevin Coleman?  Thanks for making my point!

 

Well chubb has had a very significant knee I jury before. And the real life smart play is RBBC. Chubb might be better might not be but keeping him nice an healthy is the better way to win.

I bet the rams wish gurely was healthy for the superbowl?

I've heard Phil Simms say that the reason bill belichick has such crazy running back usage is because he believes that RB is such a physically demanding position that the 2nd string rb at 100% is better than the starter at 95%.. this probably isnt true with the greats like Zeke or saquon. But its probably more accurate with chubb and hunt.

All that said. Chubb will eat early on. And hunt will probably take 5 to 8 touches a game when he gets back and chubb will still have the lions hare of games just not the whole share.

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4 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

You mean when Freeman was a top 10 back and they still used Tevin Coleman?  Thanks for making my point!

Which is? First you act like no way will he lose a lot of touches, now you're apparently saying he could but he'll still be a top 10 back? And that might be right. But IMO it's hardly a a given. Also some people are talking about him as a low-end RB1.  If he's the 10th best RB, that makes him one of the if not the worst starters in most leagues. Depends a lot on where you have him ranked.   

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22 minutes ago, bomont said:

Which is? First you act like no way will he lose a lot of touches, now you're apparently saying he could but he'll still be a top 10 back? And that might be right. But IMO it's hardly a a given.

🙄

 

I don't think he'll lose many touches to Kareem Hunt.  The consensus opinion seems to be that Chubb will pretty much lose all of his value if Kareem Hunt gets involved in the offense.  I disagree with that as well.

 

22 minutes ago, bomont said:

Also some people are talking about him as a low-end RB1.  If he's the 10th best RB, that makes him one of the if not the worst starters in most leagues. Depends a lot on where you have him ranked.   

You only start 1 RB in your league?

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28 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

🙄

 

I don't think he'll lose many touches to Kareem Hunt.  The consensus opinion seems to be that Chubb will pretty much lose all of his value if Kareem Hunt gets involved in the offense.  I disagree with that as well.

 

You only start 1 RB in your league?

No idea where you're getting this consensus opinion which I have seen no one make and your 1 RB comment makes zero sense as well, so clearly talking to you on this is a waste of time. Next

 

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1 hour ago, bomont said:

Which is? First you act like no way will he lose a lot of touches, now you're apparently saying he could but he'll still be a top 10 back? And that might be right. But IMO it's hardly a a given. Also some people are talking about him as a low-end RB1.  If he's the 10th best RB, that makes him one of the if not the worst starters in most leagues. Depends a lot on where you have him ranked.   

I’m not sure what you’re trying to say here. If someone ranks him as a low end RB1, drafts him as a low end RB1 and he finishes RB10 then that is a low end RB1 and would have been a fine pick. Are you saying differently?

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on a 12 team PPR where do you see hunts current ADP flow? a 8 week gap till your actually able to use him hoping you stay in a good position to still make the playoffs?

I'm thinking 8-9 round of course depending what draft position you get

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2 minutes ago, dave.zavala89 said:

on a 12 team PPR where do you see hunts current ADP flow? a 8 week gap till your actually able to use him hoping you stay in a good position to still make the playoffs?

I'm thinking 8-9 round of course depending what draft position you get

FF calculator has him as a mid 7th now but I agree that he ends up in the 8-9 range. I don’t see why outside of keeper purposes a non Chubb owner would draft him in the first few rounds. He’s gotta sit until week 10, you’re not starting him cold that week and probably not the next week unless he jumps straight into double digit touches. So you’d be waiting 12 weeks for what? A low end RB2? 

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1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

FF calculator has him as a mid 7th now but I agree that he ends up in the 8-9 range. I don’t see why outside of keeper purposes a non Chubb owner would draft him in the first few rounds. He’s gotta sit until week 10, you’re not starting him cold that week and probably not the next week unless he jumps straight into double digit touches. So you’d be waiting 12 weeks for what? A low end RB2? 

 

I like chubb as a late 2nd early 3rd

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