munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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49 minutes ago, dave.zavala89 said:

 

I like chubb as a late 2nd early 3rd

I don’t think he will last until the 3rd very often when things really get going. I’d be thrilled to grab one of the big 4 RBs and get Chubb late 2nd. Grab Hunt as insurance in the 8/9th. Load up on wrs the next few rounds. Now just gotta land that top 4 pick...

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If you're drafting Hunt in the 8th or 9th round you need a new hobby.

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16 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

If you're drafting Hunt in the 8th or 9th round you need a new hobby.

Care to discuss or are you more interested in being condescending? Are you aware the RBs going in the 8th/9th?

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13 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Care to discuss or are you more interested in being condescending? Are you aware the RBs going in the 8th/9th?

Is there any reason that a timeshare at best RB who is suspended 8 games would be drafted in the 8th round?

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15 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Is there any reason that a timeshare at best RB who is suspended 8 games would be drafted in the 8th round?

It’s almost all timeshare backs after like round 5. Hunt is the most talented of all of them, of course conversely Chubb is vastly more talented than most backs with another viable backfield mate. If I were a Chubb owner I’d be inclined to consider selecting him as 1. insurance against injury to Chubb who I think is an absolute stud and 2. the possibility that Hunt can produce startable numbers like many lesser talented backs do in the lighter portion of a timeshare.

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1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

It’s almost all timeshare backs after like round 5. Hunt is the most talented of all of them, of course conversely Chubb is vastly more talented than most backs with another viable backfield mate. If I were a Chubb owner I’d be inclined to consider selecting him as 1. insurance against injury to Chubb who I think is an absolute stud and 2. the possibility that Hunt can produce startable numbers like many lesser talented backs do in the lighter portion of a timeshare.

I don't understand handcuffing at all.  Let alone handcuffing in the 8th round with a guy you can't use until week 10.  He'll be one of the first guys you drop for a waiver pickup.

 

The only reason Kareem Hunt should be drafted at all is if you have a significant amount of bench spots in your league.

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I don't understand handcuffing at all.  Let alone handcuffing in the 8th round with a guy you can't use until week 10.  He'll be one of the first guys you drop for a waiver pickup.

 

The only reason Kareem Hunt should be drafted at all is if you have a significant amount of bench spots in your league.

 

Yea iget ya. I handcuff if my team is super top heavy and there are no good waiver pick ups to get. But the moment I see a waiver guy I like I'll drop my handcuff 

Later in the year closer to playoffs I'll grab  a handcuff for Zeke or gurely of someone of that ilk to cover my work horse incase they come up injured. im sure that idea helped a few ppl the past couple years. 

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47 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I don't understand handcuffing at all.  Let alone handcuffing in the 8th round with a guy you can't use until week 10.  He'll be one of the first guys you drop for a waiver pickup.

 

The only reason Kareem Hunt should be drafted at all is if you have a significant amount of bench spots in your league.

I’m not into handcuffing by itself generally either which makes your ignoring of the second half of my statement about Hunt having standalone value important. 

 

As for the second half of your statement I suspect you’ll be in the vast minority with that stance. I do however play in mostly leagues with 6 or 7 bench spots plus an IR slot so that is a factor in my perspective. 

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31 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

"It’s almost all timeshare backs after like round 5. Hunt is the most talented of all of them, of course conversely Chubb is vastly more talented than most backs with another viable backfield mate. If I were a Chubb owner I’d be inclined to consider selecting him as 1. insurance against injury to Chubb who I think is an absolute stud and 2. the possibility that Hunt can produce startable numbers like many lesser talented backs do in the lighter portion of a timeshare."

 

Last year I felt good about Nick Chubb & drafted him in all three of my leagues. You didn't know Chubb & you don't own Chubb & your advice is contrary to owning Chubb. I own Chubb & I say to fellow owners, drafting Kareem Hunt in a round near where you're likely keeping Chubb is for idiots! Better to pass and monitor the development behind Chubb thru the preseason & initial 8 weeks of the 2019 season. ... In those relevant rounds I recommend Darrell Henderson, Royce Freeman & Carlos Hyde.     

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15 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

Last year I felt good about Nick Chubb & drafted him in all three of my leagues. You didn't know Chubb & you don't own Chubb & your advice is contrary to owning Chubb. I own Chubb & I say to fellow owners, drafting Kareem Hunt in a round near where you're likely keeping Chubb is for idiots! Better to pass and monitor the development behind Chubb thru the preseason & initial 8 weeks of the 2019 season. ... In those relevant rounds I recommend Darrell Henderson, Royce Freeman & Carlos Hyde.     

Lol get a load of this guy. I had Chubb last year in 2 redrafts and own him in my dynasty. I’m offering up my opinion and it isn’t even a rock hard stance as I said I wouldn’t get Hunt in the 7th where his ADP is, I’d be looking at him in the late 8th/9th if I had already drafted Chubb. It’s not advice and I could care less if anyone follows it. And what exactly is monitoring the developments behind Chubb going to do for you if you didn’t draft Hunt? He’s getting drafted so you’re not gonna have a shot at him. Henderson is going to go round 6 or earlier in ppr leagues. I’d pass on Freeman but can understand people preferring him. Hyde is fine as a lotto ticket but is a vastly inferior talent to Hunt and not the best fit for Reid’s offense. I’d rather have the better player especially under the premise that I already have Chubb and wait the weeks. But keep calling others idiots, it’s sweet message boarding.

Edited by Bmore86

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1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

I’m not into handcuffing by itself generally either which makes your ignoring of the second half of my statement about Hunt having standalone value important. 

Nobody who is suspended for 8 games has standalone value on draft day, especially a backup RB

Edited by RMJ_12
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10 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Nobody who is suspended for 8 games has standalone value on draft day, especially a backup RB

So to be clear (or more likely clear out the silly hyperbole) if CMC was popped with an 8 game suspension, you would not be drafting him in any round?

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6 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

So to be clear (or more likely clear out the silly hyperbole) if CMC was popped with an 8 game suspension, you would not be drafting him in any round?

Come on dude.

 

If Kareem Hunt WASN'T suspended at all would he be a top 4 pick in the draft?  Would he even go in the top 3 rounds?  No.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

Come on dude.

 

If Kareem Hunt WASN'T suspended at all would he be a top 4 pick in the draft?  Would he even go in the top 3 rounds?  No.

You’re the one who said you wouldn’t take anyone with an 8 game suspension brother. Not me. I take it you’re backing away from that claim? Hunt would probably go round 4 or 5 with no suspension (keeping everything else constant like the fact that with no suspension he’d probably have signed a more lucrative contract, not been with Cleveland, etc.) If you think he’s a pure backup to Chubb as great as Chubb is I don’t agree with you at all. Chubb is better. But Hunt is good and good enough to see the field.

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On 6/11/2019 at 9:42 AM, bomont said:

I have no idea what "priced very appropriately" means since diff people have diff price values in mind. What other RBs do you consider of similar value?

If you don't think Hunt will cut into his touches significantly, OK you may be right, but his 3/100 is a ridiculous outlier that hardly backs any argument that losing a lot of touches won't matter.

Bottom line we currently have no way of knowing how much Hunt will or won't cut into his numbers. It's a big risk, that's all I'm saying. 

 

Similar value to Chubb? How about David Montgomery? Others might be Devonta Freeman, Aaron Jones and Marlon Mack.

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1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

Hunt would probably go round 4 or 5 with no suspension (keeping everything else constant like the fact that with no suspension he’d probably have signed a more lucrative contract, not been with Cleveland, etc.)

He signed with Cleveland before his suspension was even announced...

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

He signed with Cleveland before his suspension was even announced...

But everyone knew a lengthy suspension was coming...

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1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

Hunt would probably go round 4 or 5 with no suspension

So he drops 3 or 4 rounds with an 8 game suspension?  🤔

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9 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

So he drops 3 or 4 rounds with an 8 game suspension?  🤔

4 rounds or so yeah IMO. Right now his ADP is mid round 7 but I think it will wind up later. I don’t think we’re that far off in our opinions. We both love Chubb. I think Hunt is good enough too that he won’t just be buried even with the suspension though. You don’t think he’s good enough or won’t have enough time to earn a role I guess. I’m curious where among NFL backs you have Hunt ranked? Not talking for draft purposes this year, just on talent alone.

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1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

I’m curious where among NFL backs you have Hunt ranked? Not talking for draft purposes this year, just on talent alone.

I don't think I'll know until I see him in a different system.  He was outplayed by Damien Williams last year, a guy I thought was complete trash.

 

1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

You don’t think he’s good enough or won’t have enough time to earn a role I guess

Would you start Kareem Hunt in week 10 coming off of a suspension not knowing what his role will be?  If not he's basically worthless to your team until week 11 or even 12 maybe.  That's your 8th round pick?  There are WR's going in that round you could be starting by week 2.

Edited by RMJ_12

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7 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

I don't think I'll know until I see him in a different system.  He was outplayed by Damien Williams last year, a guy I thought was complete trash.

 

Would you start Kareem Hunt in week 10 coming off of a suspension not knowing what his role will be?  If not he's basically worthless to your team until week 11 or even 12 maybe.  That's your 8th round pick?  There are WR's going in that round you could be starting by week 2.

It’s true that Reid’s offense is capable of propping up meh backs. That being said there’s a big difference between Williams coming in fresh and having late season success over the span of 5 starts and Hunt doing it over 27 games. And it isn’t true that he was outplayed by Williams. In the best light it’s a push for Damien. In the worst a clear win for Hunt. PFF ranked Hunt 9th last year and Williams 15 which is very impressive for him but still a sizeable gap. Hunt’s 16 game pace for last year was something like 1750 total yards and 20 tds. At the age of 23 coming off 1800 and 11 at 22. He would have been in the convo with the big 4 at the top of the draft with those numbers. I can’t find Hunt’s grade from 2017 but he led the league in YAC and in missed tackles forced so I’m guessing it was a pretty nice grade as well. I guess that’s the biggest disparity in our rankings as I’d have Hunt around the top 10 while you seemingly don’t. Replace Hunt in your mind with someone you have in towards the back of your top 10. Can you see my perspective now?

I doubt I’d start Hunt coming off suspension week 10 and said as much on the prior page. I also said week 11 would be in question but I’ll backtrack some from that and say if he handles a few touches week 10 he’d in the convo. I’m only looking for 10-12 touches. I like how you frame it as my 8th round pick when I also mentioned the 9th round. And very clearly said the additional benefit of protecting my stud back in Chubb is a factor. There are some wrs going in that area I’d likely prefer over Hunt and I see 2 RBs that I would take. But no one is close to his talent and I like betting on talent and seeing what happens.

A final point- Mark Ingram was suspended 4 games last year yet still had an ADP of late 4th. So maybe saying 4th/5th is too late for the hypothetically not suspended Hunt. Maybe it’s more like late 3rd round. It’s not quite apples to apples because we know NO had a top flight offense while we are merely projecting Cleveland to make a jump to that level. And we know how NO uses multiple backs while I am merely projecting how Cleveland would if they had 2 top talents. On the other side Hunt >>> Ingram and Kamara while maybe less of a pure bell cow as far as measurables is better than Chubb at this point.

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11 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Come on dude.

 

If Kareem Hunt WASN'T suspended at all would he be a top 4 pick in the draft?  Would he even go in the top 3 rounds?  No.

Hunt in 2018 played 11 games; through week 1-11 he was RB11.

If he would still play on KC (and the lead back), that would make him a second rounder. In a timeshare in Cleveland, more like a 4th rounder, but just imagine the number of bitchfights between "Chubbies" and "Hunters". Each thread would easily have 100 pages by now.

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Hunt in 2018 played 11 games; through week 1-11 he was RB11.

If he would still play on KC (and the lead back), that would make him a second rounder. In a timeshare in Cleveland, more like a 4th rounder, but just imagine the number of bitchfights between "Chubbies" and "Hunters". Each thread would easily have 100 pages by now.

 

Hunt would easily be a top 5 pick if he was slated to play 16 in KC (assuming that there was no Damien Williams emergence since Hunt plays all of last year in the scenario).

 

I agree with the majority here though. Although I feel Hunt is top-tier talent at RB, I don't see how you could draft him before the 12th-13th round. It hamstrings you from picking up a shiny waiver wire dart throw, and we have no clue what his role will be when he gets back Week 10

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3 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

It isn’t true that he was outplayed by Williams. In the best light it’s a push for Damien. In the worst a clear win for Hunt.

 

On 6/3/2019 at 12:04 PM, elroypedro said:

2018

YPC
Hunt 4.6
Williams 5.1

True YPC(adjusted for defense)
Hunt 4.3
Williams 4.9

Production Premium(efficiency adjusted for defense)
Hunt +24.1 (#10 overall)
Williams +42.5 (#2 overall)

Evaded Tackles
Hunt 57 - 5.2pg
Williams 25 - 6.25pg 

Juke Rate
Hunt 27.5%
Williams 34.2%

Yard Created Total
Hunt 324 in 11 games (#14 in 11 games total)
Williams 122 in 4 games (#55 in 4 games total)

Yards Created Per Carry
Hunt 1.57 (#18)
Williams 1.67 (#12)

Yards Per Carry vs 6-7-8 men Box
Hunt 5.6 - 4.2 - 2.3
Williams 5.0 - 4.9 - 6.6

Fantasy Points Per Touch .5ppr
Hunt 1.07
D Williams 1.35
 

 

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