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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

In a timeshare in Cleveland, more like a 4th rounder, but just imagine the number of bitchfights between "Chubbies" and "Hunters". Each thread would easily have 100 pages by now.

Chubbies all the way

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

 

What’s your source for the stats? And why is it using 4 games? Williams started 3, played 5 without Hunt. 5 and 7 if you include playoffs. Most of those don’t seem like they’d have enough of a sample size to be relevant if you’re breaking less than 50 carries down into specific situations. And then you factor in defenses focusing more on Mahomes post Hunt evidenced by a loss in his efficiency. And look what Hunt did weeks 4-11 after the cat was out of the bag on Mahomes. He put up Gurley-esque numbers. How would those numbers stack up?

 

edit- I do appreciate the stats although I have questions about their validity in such a small sample and for a back without the rep of Hunt. Just curious the source.

Edited by Bmore86
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11 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

And why is it using 4 games? Williams started 3, played 5 without Hunt. 5 and 7 if you include playoffs.

Im sure it doesn't help your argument if he uses all 7 games lol.  Williams did even better in the playoffs.

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16 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Im sure it doesn't help your argument if he uses all 7 games lol.  Williams did even better in the playoffs.

Did he? 4.5 ypc. Worse catch%. Lots of tds and better YPR but not close to Hunt’s. Link the source for your advanced stats?

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36 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Did he? 4.5 ypc. Worse catch%. Lots of tds and better YPR but not close to Hunt’s. Link the source for your advanced stats?

I didn't post the stats...

 

I'm pretty sure you're just defending one of your favorite RB's at this point.

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9 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I didn't post the stats...

 

I'm pretty sure you're just defending one of your favorite RB's at this point.

I have 0 ties to Hunt in fantasy (trying to buy low on him in my dyno but not happening yet) or KC as a fan but I do think he’s really good (I’ll reiterate not as good as Chubb). I don’t consider him one of my favorite RBs. If you want to plant your flag in the stance that Williams is better or equal to Hunt and Hunt purely being the product of the Reid system, that’s fine. We can leave it at that. We’ll need time to tell. Hopefully Hunt can stay out of trouble and we’ll get to see.

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2 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

If you want to plant your flag in the stance that Williams is better or equal to Hunt and Hunt purely being the product of the Reid system, that’s fine.

Absolutely not.  My stance on Williams his entire career is that he was absolutely terrible until 2018.  My point is I don't know how good Kareem Hunt actually is until we see him in Cleveland.  Although it seems that only 1 team actually wanted him looking at his contract.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

Absolutely not.  My stance on Williams his entire career is that he was absolutely terrible until 2018.  My point is I don't know how good Kareem Hunt actually is until we see him in Cleveland.  Although it seems that only 1 team actually wanted him looking at his contract.

I remember interest being reported from multiple teams. Also I’ll give you one guess why his market was so poor...

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13 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

I remember interest being reported from multiple teams.

So he just chose to be a backup?

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

So he just chose to be a backup?

Doubtful. He didn’t exactly have a ton of leverage. He’s from Ohio, played college in Ohio, maybe he wanted to go home to fix his life. Maybe the other teams wanted to sign him dirt cheap for more years and he would rather rebuild his value with a shorter contract and bet on himself to show his talent on the field and stay clean off it. You really gonna play dumb like the video of his incident didn’t drastically alter his opportunities?

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15 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

You really gonna play dumb like the video of his incident didn’t drastically alter his opportunities?

It obviously did.  And his opportunity now is to be a backup.

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3 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

It obviously did.  And his opportunity now is to be a backup.

And that proves what about his talent? You wanna agree this is going nowhere and drop it?

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37 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

And that proves what about his talent? You wanna agree this is going nowhere and drop it?

It proves nothing about his talent.  Nor does his time in KC.  It proves that his opportunity is not what you seem to think.

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Can this argument be taken to the Hunt thread? I understand Hunt relates to Chubb, but you guys are just arguing about Hunt at this point. Let’s at least bring all this back to Chubb. 

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6 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

O/U 14 tds for Chubb?

 

Under

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

O/U 14 tds for Chubb?

Should prolly set the O/U at 14.5tds. Ties are for communists 

Under by the way

Edited by Stonej14

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5 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Should prolly set the O/U at 14.5tds. Ties are for communists 

Under by the way

Haha. Should be 13.5 then if we already have 2 unders. Should also have asked what are we projecting since projections are across 16 games. A straight O/U of a lofty number needs not only good play but also no injuries so under is the smart play.

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Just now, Bmore86 said:

Haha. Should be 13.5 then if we already have 2 unders. Should also have asked what are we projecting since projections are across 16 games. A straight O/U of a lofty number needs not only good play but also no injuries so under is the smart play.

 

Still under. 12tds is my educated guess

 

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Still under. 12tds is my educated guess

 

12 is as good a guess as any. I went with 14. Cleveland RBs scored 18 tds last year and that was with Hyde wasting carries for a month and a half. Everyone seems to think the Cleveland offense takes a large jump this year. And the defense and overall team should be good enough that the run game won’t be affected much by negative game flow. If that number gets to 20 or more then I think Chubb has a good shot at 14+. 5 RBs scored 14 or more tds last year and Conner had 13 in 13 games. 

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6 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

12 is as good a guess as any. I went with 14.

Remember that both are really high numbers:

- 12 TD over the past 10 years is on average top-6

- 14 TD for an RB is on average top-3

Even if you consider him a top-10 back (and most people put him just under that), 10 TD would be a really nice total.

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42 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Remember that both are really high numbers:

- 12 TD over the past 10 years is on average top-6

- 14 TD for an RB is on average top-3

Even if you consider him a top-10 back (and most people put him just under that), 10 TD would be a really nice total.

Right that’s why I corrected to a 16 game projection not betting on an O/U. How many backs would get there if they played all 16 games? Last year it would have been 6 at 14 or more.

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17 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

"... what exactly is monitoring the developments behind Chubb going to do for you if you didn’t draft Hunt? He’s getting drafted so you’re not gonna have a shot at him. Henderson is going to go round 6 or earlier in ppr leagues. I’d pass on Freeman but can understand people preferring him. Hyde is fine as a lotto ticket but is a vastly inferior talent to Hunt and not the best fit for Reid’s offense. I’d rather have the better player especially under the premise that I already have Chubb and wait the weeks. But keep calling others idiots, it’s sweet message boarding."

 

Perhaps nothing, but if one of their younger RBs proves himself effective, gains the trust of the coaching staff, I'm apt to consider him the more logical handcuff, should I be so inclined. I have no idea how good they feel about those players, but we all know some teams are deeper at RB than others... every year there's always a guy who gets cut that's a surprise. We shouldn't assume the Browns are done adding. 

The players I referenced were the ones coming off in the rounds you mentioned, but in .5ppr. To me, Phillip Lindsey & Damien Williams are not strong lead RBs, which of that group, I like Freeman & Hyde. With respect to Freeman, we want to remember that he's a product of that Oregon spread offense, which naturally creates space and open running lanes. But in Denver, only two other NFL RBs saw more loaded defensive fronts than Royce Freeman. So that's quite a curve he was subjected to.    

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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

 

Perhaps nothing, but if one of their younger RBs proves himself effective, gains the trust of the coaching staff, I'm apt to consider him the more logical handcuff, should I be so inclined. I have no idea how good they feel about those players, but we all know some teams are deeper at RB than others... every year there's always a guy who gets cut that's a surprise. We shouldn't assume the Browns are done adding. 

The players I referenced were the ones coming off in the rounds you mentioned, but in .5ppr. To me, Phillip Lindsey & Damien Williams are not strong lead RBs, which of that group, I like Freeman & Hyde. With respect to Freeman, we want to remember that he's a product of that Oregon spread offense, which naturally creates space and open running lanes. But in Denver, only two other NFL RBs saw more loaded defensive fronts than Royce Freeman. So that's quite a curve he was subjected to.    

This is a well thought out response and much more constructive than just disagreeing with someone and calling them an idiot. I disagree with your first paragraph as I find it extremely unlikely that a back discarded by another team would be able to beat out Kareem Hunt who has a resume of 28 starts with great career numbers albeit in a high powered offense. 

I absolutely agree with the strategy of targeting RBs later who are behind guys with weaknesses or perceived weaknesses. Be it Lindsay’s size/draft capital, Williams’ small sample of success and lack of prior accomplishments, Michel’s knee, Kerryon’s injury history, whatever. In the 2 cases you mentioned I don’t like Hyde as a fit with Reid since he’s a below average receiver and Reid prefers a plus receiver as his lead back. But I agree its a potential jackpot situation if something were to happen to Williams. Freeman I don’t think he’s all that good. So I agree with the strategy just don’t agree with the talent or situation entirely for those 2 guys. Also of course as you mention differences apply in ppr vs .5 ppr.

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10 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

This is a well thought out response and much more constructive than just disagreeing with someone and calling them an idiot.

tenor.gif

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