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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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8 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Anyone else concerned he still doesn’t seem to be back to 100%? Watching him last year compared to his highlights pre injury at Georgia- he doesn’t look fully recovered. I like the situation and potential discount with hunt looming, but on the off chance Chubb struggles or rather doesn’t impress, Browns coaches could very easily try out their fresh rb in Kareem hunt, who also happens to be very good. 

Which highlight worries you more? His 63 yard td against the raiders or the 92 yarder against Atlanta? 

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14 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Anyone else concerned he still doesn’t seem to be back to 100%? Watching him last year compared to his highlights pre injury at Georgia- he doesn’t look fully recovered. I like the situation and potential discount with hunt looming, but on the off chance Chubb struggles or rather doesn’t impress, Browns coaches could very easily try out their fresh rb in Kareem hunt, who also happens to be very good. 

I’m not concerned at all. Last year he showed burst, balance, ridiculous power, really quick feet, and vision/instincts. His speed was great for his size. He ran a 4.5 ish at the combine and I believe he was clocked with some of the faster times for the season on field. This leads me to believe that even though he had a great combine he wasn’t all the way back yet and is maybe more like a mid 4.4 guy. He was facing stacked boxes at a high rate last year yet still ate and managed to rip off a long run seemingly every week.

I do think it’s interesting to consider where he is now vs where he was prior to the knee injury. It’s easy to dismiss the possibility that he lost anything because of how good he’s looked in the pros but remember freshman year Chubb was a prospect in the same vein as Zeke, Saquon, Gurley. Without injury he likely goes top 5 after his junior year. Are you concerned he maybe lost a half step or some burst? That’s all I could see as remotely possible. His power/balance/feet couldn’t have been better back then. I’m not sure he was ever a low 4.4 runner so I don’t think he could have lost much speed. Maybe a couple hundredths of a second. His burst jumps out in his freshman year highlights but it’s also pretty good right now and it makes sense that it would stand out more against lesser college players. IMO if he’s not 100% back he’s 95% and that’s a hell of a player.

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I loved what I saw from Chubb as a rookie and the Browns offense could be dynamite, but the bottom line is that I can't rationalize using a mid-second round pick on a guy who could be forced into a full blown RBBC halfway through the season. I don't think Cleveland took on the risk and heat of signing Hunt to not use him once he's eligible to suit up. 

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56 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

I loved what I saw from Chubb as a rookie and the Browns offense could be dynamite, but the bottom line is that I can't rationalize using a mid-second round pick on a guy who could be forced into a full blown RBBC halfway through the season. I don't think Cleveland took on the risk and heat of signing Hunt to not use him once he's eligible to suit up. 

Just grab Kareem later if you're that concerned with it.  I would take Chubb over Bell with zero hesitation this year.

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6 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Just grab Kareem later if you're that concerned with it.  I would take Chubb over Bell with zero hesitation this year.

I think you’re missing the point. When both of them are active, there is the potential that the inevitable RBBC makes them both risky propositions, unless you’re in one of those gimmicky best ball leagues. I also don’t love the concept of having to burn a 7th round pick simply to justify drafting Chubb in the 2nd. 

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9 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

I’m not concerned at all. Last year he showed burst, balance, ridiculous power, really quick feet, and vision/instincts. His speed was great for his size. He ran a 4.5 ish at the combine and I believe he was clocked with some of the faster times for the season on field. This leads me to believe that even though he had a great combine he wasn’t all the way back yet and is maybe more like a mid 4.4 guy. He was facing stacked boxes at a high rate last year yet still ate and managed to rip off a long run seemingly every week.

I do think it’s interesting to consider where he is now vs where he was prior to the knee injury. It’s easy to dismiss the possibility that he lost anything because of how good he’s looked in the pros but remember freshman year Chubb was a prospect in the same vein as Zeke, Saquon, Gurley. Without injury he likely goes top 5 after his junior year. Are you concerned he maybe lost a half step or some burst? That’s all I could see as remotely possible. His power/balance/feet couldn’t have been better back then. I’m not sure he was ever a low 4.4 runner so I don’t think he could have lost much speed. Maybe a couple hundredths of a second. His burst jumps out in his freshman year highlights but it’s also pretty good right now and it makes sense that it would stand out more against lesser college players. IMO if he’s not 100% back he’s 95% and that’s a hell of a player.

His burst, twitch don’t seem like what they once were. Idk, it kindve just makes me nervous thinking a guy isn’t playing at his best. I’m worried he might be more susceptible to other lower body injuries now too. 

 

But either way, ty for actually knowing what I meant and not just making some smart a** comment about how he broke off a nice run lol

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he looked better as a freshman in college than a freshman in the nfl. Idk, that just concerns me a little. 

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11 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

 

he looked better as a freshman in college than a freshman in the nfl. Idk, that just concerns me a little. 

I would certainly hope he looked better as a freshman in college.

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18 minutes ago, devaster said:

I would certainly hope he looked better as a freshman in college.

Why’s that? I’m not talking about the level of competition he’s playing I’m talking about how he looks in space, in and out of cuts. One of the first highlights in that vid is him changing direction in a way he doesn’t seem capable of now. 

 

Most players improve over time, but you expect someone to get worse with age? When they are still so young? I don’t follow

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I didn't really see him in college and tbh don't care if he is slightly worse; I did see him last year and he looked really good and is on what looks like a really good offense this year. Hunt is the only reason I might not pay as much for him as others and look elsewhere (or I get one of the top RBs and those 2 combined is too pricey).

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16 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Why’s that? I’m not talking about the level of competition he’s playing I’m talking about how he looks in space, in and out of cuts. One of the first highlights in that vid is him changing direction in a way he doesn’t seem capable of now. 

 

Most players improve over time, but you expect someone to get worse with age? When they are still so young? I don’t follow

 

Chubb looked great last season and all reports are he’s full go.   If you want to pass on him because of Hunt factor-  that’s defensible.    I think he’s a stud and due for a big season.    Having a talented backup available when the wear and tear accumulates in the late season is a good thing.    Chubb will have plenty of opportunity weekly and he’s proven capable of both pounding the rock and ripping huge chunks.   

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I need to take a harder look at this guy.

Just saw a projection for 1250 yards and 14 TD.

 

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Posted (edited)
On 7/9/2019 at 5:25 PM, bomont said:

I didn't really see him in college

 

Oh man he was sooo good before he had the 2nd worst knee injury I've ever seen right behind Joe Paterno. Makes my stomach sick just thinking about it. 

 

On 7/9/2019 at 6:02 PM, Impreza178 said:

 

Chubb looked great last season and all reports are he’s full go.   If you want to pass on him because of Hunt factor-  that’s defensible.    I think he’s a stud and due for a big season.    Having a talented backup available when the wear and tear accumulates in the late season is a good thing.    Chubb will have plenty of opportunity weekly and he’s proven capable of both pounding the rock and ripping huge chunks.   

 

I feel like this guy has alot of the same positives and negatives as Derrick Henry.. chubb is a great between the tackles runner who rips through arm tackles and is capable of breaking long runs. Hes not much of a pass catcher and can be game scripted out at any game. Has elite level pass catching back up. Also has great advanced metrics stats like broken tackles and yards created per attempt. Also a redzone machine. 

Chubb should be in the better offense but also should have the worse offensive line after trading zeitler.

However I  believe chubb is going in the 2nd round. I feel like you could get the same player in Henry a round later.

 

Edited by Stonej14

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I thought he was a better receiver, thanks for pointing that out! He's on a far better offense than Henry, but you can look at that two ways. Either he's preferable because they will have more sustained drives, increasing his touches, or Henry is because he will be the total focal point of a run-first attack vs the balance (or even pass oriented) attack of the Browns. 

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5 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Oh man he was sooo good before he had the 2nd worst knee injury I've ever seen right behind Joe Paterno. Makes my stomach sick just thinking about it. 

 

 

I feel like this guy has alot of the same positives and negatives as Derrick Henry.. chubb is a great between the tackles runner who rips through arm tackles and is capable of breaking long runs. Hes not much of a pass catcher and can be game scripted out at any game. Has elite level pass catching back up. Also has great advanced metrics stats like broken tackles and yards created per attempt. Also a redzone machine. 

Chubb should be in the better offense but also should have the worse offensive line after trading zeitler.

However I  believe chubb is going in the 2nd round. I feel like you could get the same player in Henry a round later.

 

Disagree with this. Henry is big and fast for his size but rather stiff to me. Chubb has better vision, feet, burst, lateral agility. Chubb also caught more passes as a rookie than Henry has in any of his 3 years in the league. I think he has worlds more potential as a receiver than Henry does.

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I mostly agree, but "worlds more potential" is probably pushing it. He could be good enough that it's not much of a liability, which I would be fine with at his expected cost.

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18 minutes ago, bomont said:

I mostly agree, but "worlds more potential" is probably pushing it. He could be good enough that it's not much of a liability, which I would be fine with at his expected cost.

To be clear I’m talking from a dynasty perspective when I’m talking about his potential as a receiver. For this year I think he’s in the 35-40 range which is more or less a carryover from where he was last year. He had 20 catches in his 9 games as a starter which extrapolates to 35 over a full season. I think Henry caps out around 20 this year.

Chubb flashed down the field skills on his td catch against the Bengals. I think he was also targeted deep down the field another time and I know for sure he lined up wide and had a target against the Broncos (which he dropped). I can’t recall Henry ever being targeted like that down the field. To me that’s worlds more potential. I expect that by the end of Chubb’s second season he will have close to the same number of receptions that Henry has in his 4 year career. He could be similar to a guy like Gurley who I don’t think is truly a great receiver but he’s so dangerous with the ball that he’s used heavily in the receiving game just to get him it. Remember as a rookie Gurley only had 21 catches in 13 games (albeit more of a curve coming off injury) and Bennie Cunningham was on the field for him on passing downs.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Disagree with this. Henry is big and fast for his size but rather stiff to me. Chubb has better vision, feet, burst, lateral agility. Chubb also caught more passes as a rookie than Henry has in any of his 3 years in the league. I think he has worlds more potential as a receiver than Henry does.

 

Well you cant really measure vision or foot work so that's an opinion and i cant dispute that but they had nearly identical burst scores, 40 times, and agility scores. Chubb is a better pass catcher than Henry (which isnt hard) but the guy caught 31 passes in 3.5 years of college ball (Todd gurely had 65 catches in 2.5 years) and his 20 catches last year were about 16 dump offs and 4 real routes. I'm not saying hes Jordan Howard bad but if someone makes the argument that the titans get down 21 points early and Henry is game scripted out then I believe the same thing could be said for chubb especially since Duke johnson is an elite level pass catching rb. 

Edited by Stonej14

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9 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Well you cant really measure vision or foot work so that's an opinion and i cant dispute that but they had nearly identical burst scores, 40 times, and agility scores. Chubb is a better pass catcher than Henry (which isnt hard) but the guy caught 31 passes in 3.5 years of college ball (Todd gurely had 65 catches in 2.5 years) and his 20 catches last year were about 16 dump offs and 4 real routes. I'm not saying hes Jordan Howard bad but if someone makes the argument that the titans get down 21 points early and Henry is game scripted out then I believe the same thing could be said for chubb especially since Duke johnson is an elite level pass catching rb. 

Except that Duke was hardly used last season when Chubb was the lead back. Chubb received nearly all of the work from their RB's.

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32 minutes ago, devaster said:

Except that Duke was hardly used last season when Chubb was the lead back. Chubb received nearly all of the work from their RB's.

 

Duke Johnson had 29 catches over the 9 games chubb was a starter. The last 5 games of the season Dion Lewis's touches went down every week because the titans were either winning or not trailing big time. Same situation for the browns. And Duke still got 29 catches 

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1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

To be clear I’m talking from a dynasty perspective when I’m talking about his potential as a receiver. For this year I think he’s in the 35-40 range which is more or less a carryover from where he was last year. He had 20 catches in his 9 games as a starter which extrapolates to 35 over a full season

Yes and that's why I say enough not to be much of a liability, but no more. 35 isn't much when you're talking about upper tier RBs, in fact it's still kinda weak. Saying "it's better than Henry" isn't saying anything. 

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43 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Duke Johnson had 29 catches over the 9 games chubb was a starter. The last 5 games of the season Dion Lewis's touches went down every week because the titans were either winning or not trailing big time. Same situation for the browns. And Duke still got 29 catches 

And yet Duke was still receiving very little work. 3 catches per game isn't much. There aren't many backs who don't ever come off the field. Duke was never a threat. Hunt sure might be, but Duke isn't. Chubb had about the same receiving work in that time frame (~2/game).

Chubb should be much higher on draft boards and is a much more versatile back.

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13 minutes ago, devaster said:

And yet Duke was still receiving very little work. 3 catches per game isn't much. There aren't many backs who don't ever come off the field. Duke was never a threat. Hunt sure might be, but Duke isn't. Chubb had about the same receiving work in that time frame (~2/game).

Chubb should be much higher on draft boards and is a much more versatile back.

 

I've never said Duke was going to steal touches or threaten a time share (hunt probably will however) I said that if the browns are ever down big chubb could be game scripted out. They never were in the last 9 games of the season so it's not a certainty just like we dont for certain that the titans will ever take Henry off the field with their new game plan but it's likely they would if they ever got down 35-7 mid way thru the 3rd. You really think that the browns would just be like "f--- it, chubb can catch just as good as Duke leave em out there in this 100% passing situation"? 

 

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8 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Well you cant really measure vision or foot work so that's an opinion and i cant dispute that but they had nearly identical burst scores, 40 times, and agility scores. Chubb is a better pass catcher than Henry (which isnt hard) but the guy caught 31 passes in 3.5 years of college ball (Todd gurely had 65 catches in 2.5 years) and his 20 catches last year were about 16 dump offs and 4 real routes. I'm not saying hes Jordan Howard bad but if someone makes the argument that the titans get down 21 points early and Henry is game scripted out then I believe the same thing could be said for chubb especially since Duke johnson is an elite level pass catching rb. 

You’re right a lot of that is opinion based and I presented it as such. I haven’t seen Henry display and don’t think he’s capable of making the quick lateral jump cuts that Chubb used on many occasions or of pressing a hole stopping and starting and bursting to the outside regularly like Chubb did. Purely opinion based on watching them play which I think is more important than the combine but of course could be unique to me. Since you brought up the combine though, their agility scores are not nearly identical. In the 3 cone and short shuttle 42 and 47 percentiles for Chubb vs 19 and 24 percentiles for Henry. 

Plenty of guys aren’t used a ton as receivers in college then are in the pros although I admit I thought Gurley was used amongst that group used less in college as well. Thank you for correcting that.  4 real routes is 4 more real routes than I expect Henry ran. I project, and their numbers back up, Chubb to have 40-50 more points through the air than Henry this year. That’s a substantial difference. Again that’s for redraft. I think Chubb can get 3 down work and even more down the road. Game script was more of an issue for Henry last year- in the 4 games the Titans lost by double digits Henry averaged 11 touches. In the 3 such games for the Browns Chubb averaged 18.3. Another substantial difference.

 

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7 hours ago, bomont said:

Yes and that's why I say enough not to be much of a liability, but no more. 35 isn't much when you're talking about upper tier RBs, in fact it's still kinda weak. Saying "it's better than Henry" isn't saying anything. 

Well since you jumped in when I said he had worlds more potential as a receiver compared to Henry, being “better than Henry” and substantially so is sort of saying everything. And don’t harp on the 35 when I made it clear and you even quoted the post where I said that 35-40 is a 2019 projection and I was talking about a longer term outlook when I mention his potential being greater.

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