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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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36 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Quite simply put, he won’t be the best RB on his team for the second half of the season so he is too risky for most owners at his current ADP.

If you want to win regular season games, Chubb will be great. But if you want to avoid having to consider benching your second round pick in the playoffs, stay away. 

How is Hunt better than Chubb?

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7 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

How is Hunt better than Chubb?

 

4 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Simple...he’s not. 

 

Hunt doesn't have to be better than Chubb to hurt Chubb's production.

If Chubb  struggles early in the year they can turn to Hunt for a spark. 
If the Browns are doing great they may want to limit Chubb's touches, keep him healthy for the playoffs. 

I love Chubb, but the return of Hunt has to make owners (like myself) a little nervous. It's not like Hunt is some jag. And we know NFL teams (outside of Dallas) love to rest their RBs as much as possible. Hunt gives them a real talent who can eat away at Chubb's touches without eating away at the team's production. 

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45 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

 

Hunt doesn't have to be better than Chubb to hurt Chubb's production.

If Chubb  struggles early in the year they can turn to Hunt for a spark. 
If the Browns are doing great they may want to limit Chubb's touches, keep him healthy for the playoffs. 

I love Chubb, but the return of Hunt has to make owners (like myself) a little nervous. It's not like Hunt is some jag. And we know NFL teams (outside of Dallas) love to rest their RBs as much as possible. Hunt gives them a real talent who can eat away at Chubb's touches without eating away at the team's production. 

Same here.  If Hunt wasn't due back in week 10, I think that a lot of people wouldn't hesitate to take Chubb as their rb1 in the first round of larger leagues.  He will likely still go in the first in some leagues but it will likely end up being a committee come fantasy playoffs time.  Personally, he's on my do-not-draft list because he'll likely be good to great for the first 10 weeks as a solid rb1 but then Hunt is due back.  Not sure why they even bothered signing Hunt but it isn't to let him ride the pine.

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

How is Hunt better than Chubb?

Well, let’s see.....

Rookie year Hunt led the league in rushing and scored 11 TDs. 

Last season he had 14 TDs and over 1,200 total yards through ELEVEN games. 

A case could legitimately be made that Hunt was the best RB in the league between Week 1 2017 and Week 12 2018 (Kamara could be argued as well). Chubb is nice, but let’s be realistic lol. 

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15 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Well, let’s see.....

Rookie year Hunt led the league in rushing and scored 11 TDs. 

Last season he had 14 TDs and over 1,200 total yards through ELEVEN games. 

A case could legitimately be made that Hunt was the best RB in the league between Week 1 2017 and Week 12 2018 (Kamara could be argued as well). Chubb is nice, but let’s be realistic lol. 

You’re confusing statistics with actual talent.  Damien Williams was just as good as Kareem Hunt last season, is he elite now too?  Your offensive situation is a humongous factor in your success as a RB.  Nick Chubb had 1,145 yards and 10 TD’s while only starting 9 games in an offense with a rookie QB and only 1 WR worth anything.

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2 hours ago, wideopen21 said:

 

If Chubb struggles early in the year they can turn to Hunt for a spark.

If Chubb struggles early then he’s probably a fantasy bust anyway and it really doesn’t matter, but if this offense is as good as we think it will be then Chubb should dominate.  Once Hunt comes back it won’t matter, it’s Chubb’s team.

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19 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

If Chubb struggles early then he’s probably a fantasy bust anyway and it really doesn’t matter, but if this offense is as good as we think it will be then Chubb should dominate.  Once Hunt comes back it won’t matter, it’s Chubb’s team.

 

Maybe, maybe not.  Just because you've made an assertion doesn't mean it's going to go down that way.  As stated above Hunt is a legitimate factor to leech away the Chubb when it counts most.  The latter part of the season.

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Most agree that while Kareem Hunt is serving his suspension Nick Chubb should be a monster RB on a great offense.

Yet some of you are trying to make the case that The Browns are going to go from “Kareem Hunt has work to do to be part of our organization” to drastically changing Nick Chubb’s role immediately upon Hunt’s eligibility in week 10?

Hunt may be a great RB, but he screwed up, and lost his gig as a starting RB in the NFL. He’s lucky to be on a team, never mind oust that teams incumbent stud RB simply by showing up in week 10. Chubb is going to be a major cog in Cleveland’s offensive machine while Hunt contributes zero for the majority of the season. Chubb’s role will likely be virtually unchanged upon Hunt’s return. Whatever role Hunt has will be a complimentary one. He’ll be a fantastic complimentary RB, but a complimentary RB nonetheless. There will not be a major shakeup to Cleveland’s offense during a likely playoff run. Hunt’s return is simply too late for that. The train will have left the station long ago, and Hunt will be lucky just to be along for the ride.

That said, if Hunt is still in Cleveland for 2020, things may be a bit different, but a lot can happen by then. Trade, another suspension, etc.

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9 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Most agree that while Kareem Hunt is serving his suspension Nick Chubb should be a monster RB on a great offense.

Yet some of you are trying to make the case that The Browns are going to go from “Kareem Hunt has work to do to be part of our organization” to drastically changing Nick Chubb’s role immediately upon Hunt’s eligibility in week 10?

Hunt may be a great RB, but he screwed up, and lost his gig as a starting RB in the NFL. He’s lucky to be on a team, never mind oust that teams incumbent stud RB simply by showing up in week 10. Chubb is going to be a major cog in Cleveland’s offensive machine while Hunt contributes zero for the majority of the season. Chubb’s role will likely be virtually unchanged upon Hunt’s return. Whatever role Hunt has will be a complimentary one. He’ll be a fantastic complimentary RB, but a complimentary RB nonetheless. There will not be a major shakeup to Cleveland’s offense during a likely playoff run. Hunt’s return is simply too late for that. The train will have left the station long ago, and Hunt will be lucky just to be along for the ride.

That said, if Hunt is still in Cleveland for 2020, things may be a bit different, but a lot can happen by then. Trade, another suspension, etc.

 

This is what I tried to say a while back, but you said it a lot better. 

I’m simply not very worried about Hunt’s impact on Chubb’s end of season volume. Chubb will get his.

My main question mark is actually what kind of total touch volume Chubb is going to get even in the first half of the season without much involvement in the passing game. 

Edited by gufomel

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Are players allowed to have any involvement with the team while on suspension? If so, to what extent?

Edited by gufomel

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Jamaal Charles was the last actual elite back on chiefs. Hunt seemed pretty good, but certainly not elite. Dwill? Totally average. Anyways, Chubb will either beast in the first 10 weeks and keep a majority share of the touches or suck, at which point he was a bad pick regardless. 

Edited by Panthers8912
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17 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Jamaal Charles was the last actual elite back on chiefs. Hunt seemed pretty good, but certainly not elite. 

Hunt finished his rookie year as the RB3 or RB4 in fantasy, depending on format. Last season, in only 11 games, he still finished as an RB1 in every format (as high as 8th overall in standard). 

In half PPR, Hunts average fantasy points per game were 16.8 and 19.7 respectively over his two pro seasons. Jamal Charles only averaged higher than 16.8 for one season in which he played more than five games (a ridiculous 22.9 in 2013....in fairness, he averaged 18.1 for the five games he played in 2015). I'm not trying to throw shade at JC, but from a fantasy perspective, both of these guys were top tier. Hunt has played 27 pro games and he has ranked as a front-end RB1 from day one until his suspension. 

I think some pro-Chubb people are being a bit hyperbolic in here. Nobody is suggesting that Hunt is going to return and usurp Chubb's entire workload, relegating him to the bench. However, it is difficult for me to believe that Cleveland took the PR hit of going out 2.5 months after that video leaked to sign Hunt and then NOT use him when he was eligible. You don't take on that type of risky publicity just to have the guy play on the scout team or use him as trade bait. I don't care how much rhetoric there is about how he has work to do to become a Brown. 

Ultimately, both Chubb and Hunt are very good backs but things might get tricky, useage-wise, down the stretch this season. Maybe I'm wrong and Cleveland just loves bad PR, but even if you think there is a small chance that Hunt eats away at Chubb's workload, it's difficult to justify a second round price tag. 

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don't wanna cluster quote the above, so ...

JC #25 was never surrounded by the immense talents that Hunt was (sure, his rookie season was with Smiff, but he went on an 8 game drought with TDs, and was kinda "meh" otherwise during that stretch 'til the tail end of that season)

Hunt had an unconscious 'Reek/Mahomes/Kelce last year, damn straight he had good numbers - hell, DWilliams more than sufficed once established as the man - notice a pattern?

Charles was special, Hunt is very good. 

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10 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

JC #25 was never surrounded by the immense talents that Hunt was (sure, his rookie season was with Smiff, but he went on an 8 game drought with TDs, and was kinda "meh" otherwise during that stretch 'til the tail end of that season)

Hunt had an unconscious 'Reek/Mahomes/Kelce last year, damn straight he had good numbers - hell, DWilliams more than sufficed once established as the man - notice a pattern?

Charles was special, Hunt is very good. 

The narrative continues that Hunt has played on some sort of Pro Bowl team from day one but, as you mentioned, he played his first 15 games with Alex Smith as his QB (who certainly wasn't keeping any defenses honest) and despite leveling off a bit mid-season, Hunt still finished as RB3-4 overall. 

I'm not suggesting that Hunt is better than Charles but from a simply fantasy perspective, they have to at least be on the same tier. 

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11 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

The narrative continues that Hunt has played on some sort of Pro Bowl team from day one but, as you mentioned, he played his first 15 games with Alex Smith as his QB (who certainly wasn't keeping any defenses honest) and despite leveling off a bit mid-season, Hunt still finished as RB3-4 overall. 

I'm not suggesting that Hunt is better than Charles but from a simply fantasy perspective, they have to at least be on the same tier. 

 

ya know, even though i allowed the Smiff caveat, lemme backtrack a bit because 2017 was his best season as a pro (believe he finished top 5 iirc), Hill really came into his own, Kelce was busy establishing himself as Gronk's heir apparent .... so, all in all, muchmuchmuch more potent than JC's surrounding cast (which also included Smiff).

JC and Hunt do not belong in the same convo, imo ... again, Charles was a transcendent talent, Hunt is definitely not. 

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34 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

from a simply fantasy perspective, they have to at least be on the same tier. 

 

18 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

JC and Hunt do not belong in the same convo

As you can reference, I never said Hunt was as good of or a better player than JC. But again...from a simply fantasy perspective...you cannot really put them on different tiers. Hunt was on a good team and he played great. He was ranked as a front-end RB1 after his first game and he was ranked as one after he played his most recent game. Idk why playing on a good team has turned into something that is used to disparage him. He didn't choose what team to play on. 

I feel as if we're arguing different things. The fact that your argument is turning pro-Alex Smith and that you're nitpicking a couple games during his RB3 rookie season tells me that we're not going to get on the same page here. We also seem to be veering a bit too off topic probably. 

Edited by SenatorSpaceman

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RBBC seems more and more likely.   Chubb is perhaps the most overrated RB in 2019.  He is good, but on a bad team with to many mouths to feed.

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I've posted it before and I'll post it again.  I have no idea why Cleveland added Hunt when they have Chubb who proved that he can be the clear lead guy last year and he's young to boot.  Why even bother adding Hunt and his off the field baggage?

Edited by sjm76

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2 hours ago, Sivaro said:

RBBC seems more and more likely.   Chubb is perhaps the most overrated RB in 2019.  He is good, but on a bad team with to many mouths to feed.

Bad team? Say what? They just missed the playoffs last year with a rookie QB who now has a year under his belt and signed one of the best WRs in the league. 

 

1 hour ago, sjm76 said:

I've posted it before and I'll post it again.  I have no idea why Cleveland added Hunt when they have Chubb who proved that he can be the clear lead guy last year and he's young to boot.  Why even bother adding Hunt and his off the field baggage?

Let's see...one of the best RBs in the NFL for a dirt cheap price. Yeah who would want that?

People saying "Hunt will or won't have X amount of carries" are cracking me up. None of us have a clue how much they will or won't use him in the second half. I doubt even the Browns know for sure just yet. I think it's safe to say he's not just going to take over from Chubb, who should be great this year, and IMO an RBBC is unlikely as well. But he could eat into his carries enough to put a real dent in Chubb's numbers, and it's not exactly rare for RBs to get hurt, so IMO he is well worth a roster spot in case Chubb goes down, at which point he presents top RB talent AND opportunity for a very cheap price. Some with smaller rosters might not be able to do this but bigger rosters or leagues...

Edited by bomont
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I believe a lot of people are going to feel stupid for not drafting Chubb. This guy is legit and showed it last year in his rookie year. Now with mayfield and a higher powered offense he’s going to excel. If he hits the ground running which I think he will hunt won’t be much of a factor. I personally think this is over blown. 

 

If Chubb is balling out you think people will hang on to Hunt on their bench? Especially for 8 weeks when free agency decisions are critical and there are active players teams can pick up that can contribute. At that point u can grab hunt as insurance if your that worried 

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4 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I've posted it before and I'll post it again.  I have no idea why Cleveland added Hunt when they have Chubb who proved that he can be the clear lead guy last year and he's young to boot.  Why even bother adding Hunt and his off the field baggage?

 

If I'm not mistaken the browns gm used to be the gm for the chiefs when they drafted hunt.

So I imagine he loves the guy and had an opportunity to get a top 10 back (in his eyes) for next to nothing and have great depth at the most physically demanding position in all of sports. I mean chubb did have a awful knee Injury and ya never know when those things can act up or reoccur.

Edited by Stonej14

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On 7/31/2019 at 2:59 PM, wideopen21 said:

 

 

Hunt doesn't have to be better than Chubb to hurt Chubb's production.

If Chubb  struggles early in the year they can turn to Hunt for a spark. 
If the Browns are doing great they may want to limit Chubb's touches, keep him healthy for the playoffs. 

I love Chubb, but the return of Hunt has to make owners (like myself) a little nervous. It's not like Hunt is some jag. And we know NFL teams (outside of Dallas) love to rest their RBs as much as possible. Hunt gives them a real talent who can eat away at Chubb's touches without eating away at the team's production. 

This is the definition of over worrying.  If the guy is a beast(which he is), Cleveland will want to put it in his hands.  He is not a 10 touch guy either, he is a volume runner that beats the hell out of defenders that get in his way.  He is right there with Barkley in terms of running talent(I’d argue better).  Barkley is a better catcher. Don’t overthink this

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