munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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59 minutes ago, scheibler said:

I don't think he's a bad pick, but if you think Hunt isn't going to get alot of touches as soon as he's back I think you're nuts

 

 

define "a lot"

 

Again the Hunt signing is cheap insurance and gives them options at the RB position. If Chubb is crushing it and the Browns are clicking, anyone who thinks they'll just hand over the RB reigns to a guy who hasn't play in 2.5 months is nuts.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, roadawg said:

If Chubb is crushing it and the Browns are clicking, anyone who thinks they'll just hand over the RB reigns to a guy who hasn't play in 2.5 months is nuts.

This is exactly the type of rhetoric that I was talking about on the previous page. Chubb apologists are being so myopic in here. Why can none of you understand that there is PLENTY of middle ground in between “handing over the reigns” and Chubb retaining his second round value. 

NOBODY in here has suggested that Hunt will return and immediately usurp 100% of Chubb’s workload, so can the Chubb crowd please stop talking about that scenario as if anyone has brought it up? There is so much denial and hyperbole in this thread, it’s disconcerting honestly. 

Chubb people can keep acting like everyone else is trying to poison them with these irrational thoughts of a guy with back to back RB1 seasons having ANY impact at all on Chubb’s value. It’s at your own peril. 

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16 minutes ago, roadawg said:

 

 

define "a lot"

 

Again the Hunt signing is cheap insurance and gives them options at the RB position. If Chubb is crushing it and the Browns are clicking, anyone who thinks they'll just hand over the RB reigns to a guy who hasn't play in 2.5 months is nuts.

 

 

by the time Hunt sees the field, its going to be over a year since hes last played

 

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Friends,

      A rising tide raises all ships. If Kareem Hunt’s triumphant return to the gridiron sea indeed compels beach go’ers to move their warm, sandy blankets back a yard, then alas, the majestic silhouette of the S.S. Chubb shall loom even larger upon the peaking waves beneath the sun drenched horizon. 

All aboard, 

     Capt. Chubb

 

 

 

 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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13 hours ago, bomont said:

Then why didn't they? IIRC correctly nobody else made a move to get him.

Again we have no idea how many touches he'll get in the second half, but IMO no way does he just sit there on the bench. If for no other reason than to show him off for trade bait, he'll be in there. 

 

This is sadly true, it varies but most teams don't really care much about what a POS a player is if he's good enough they'll ignore it and so will the fans. 

 

Kinda making my point... if he was gonna get touches someone else would have bit on him... and they didn't... exactly why he doesn't need to get any upon return... all he needs to do and he'll get a team to show interest... he's young and has shown he can do it at a high level... but the nose clean thing steers most away anymore....

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He actually does need to get some action next year just because it's been so long. Teams will want to see "proof" of his abilities still there even though they shouldn't need to. 

Basically the Browns have little if any risk or anything to lose and a lot to gain by using Hunt at least somewhat in the second half. They rest Chubb a bit, minimize his injury risk (always a concern with a bell cow back), give defenses a different look (imagine a 2 RB set with Chubb and Hunt!), and show Hunt off, enticing teams to trade for him. 

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10 minutes ago, bomont said:

 

Basically the Browns have little if any risk or anything to lose and a lot to gain by using Hunt at least somewhat in the second half. They rest Chubb a bit, minimize his injury risk (always a concern with a bell cow back), give defenses a different look (imagine a 2 RB set with Chubb and Hunt!), and show Hunt off, enticing teams to trade for him. 

No need to imagine that: Kitchens has repeatedly told anyone willing to listen that he will have multiple backs on the field on a regular basis.  There should be plenty of opportunities for the two main backs to eat.

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Impossible! Many Chubb fans have assured us Hunt will barely see the field in the second half.  ;)

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I think they will sprinkle in some touches the first few games Hunt is back. They may escalate this a little bit the last few games of the season to give Chubb a bit of rest before the playoffs. I don't see him being ready for significant touches until maybe week 13 or 14.

My gut is starting to tell me that Hunt never plays a down for the Browns. A lot can happen in 8 weeks.

Edited by mongidig
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19 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

by the time Hunt sees the field, its going to be over a year since hes last played

 

 

He’s going to play in the PS

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On 8/3/2019 at 1:06 PM, Golden Spikes said:

by the time Hunt sees the field, its going to be over a year since hes last played

 

 

Kinda like that one guy bell

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I'm thinking kind of "OK." Not a PPR machine by any means but not Derrick Henry bad either. 30-40ish catches.

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I would say he improves upon his reception total by around 5-10, he's not likely to hit a spike in receptions with Duke still around and the possibility of Hunt getting relevant burn late in the season.

 

Admittedly as a Chubb keeper owner I do have some concern with Hunt being on the roster, to the point where I'll likely overspend by a couple rounds to nab Hunt if I can.. There's no denying Hunt is a top-tier talent, the Browns put up with the negative media attention to get him on their roster, I don't really see any way they don't have him factored into their game plan in the second half of the season. That doesn't mean Chubb's value will necessarily decrease dramatically but I think expectations need to clearly be tempered a bit, regardless even if you can get surefire 8 weeks of RB1 production from Chubb that's enough to justify the price tag in my opinion. 

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2 hours ago, MoonBlaster said:

I would say he improves upon his reception total by around 5-10, he's not likely to hit a spike in receptions with Duke still around and the possibility of Hunt getting relevant burn late in the season.

 

Admittedly as a Chubb keeper owner I do have some concern with Hunt being on the roster, to the point where I'll likely overspend by a couple rounds to nab Hunt if I can.. There's no denying Hunt is a top-tier talent, the Browns put up with the negative media attention to get him on their roster, I don't really see any way they don't have him factored into their game plan in the second half of the season. That doesn't mean Chubb's value will necessarily decrease dramatically but I think expectations need to clearly be tempered a bit, regardless even if you can get surefire 8 weeks of RB1 production from Chubb that's enough to justify the price tag in my opinion. 

He was already averaging around 3 per game with Duke there last season I think. He could easily increase his season total receptions to around 45-50 if he plays all 16 games.

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2 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

This dudes adp on espn vs FFC is hilarious. Good 25 pick difference 

What is it on FFC?

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I think the bottom line here is that nobody really knows what Hunt's going to do.  So many scenarios -

- Chubb rocks it during the first 8 games, outperforms Hunt in practice, and relegates Hunt to a handful of carries.

- Chubb gets hurt or is playing at less than 100% by midseason, and Hunt takes some carries from him so he can heal.

- Hunt proves to be the more effective runner and takes the job.  I know this is the Chubb thread but Hunt is a proven stud RB.

- Chubb plays well but the coaching staff sees Hunt as a spark and designs packages for him, eating into Chubb's work

- Coaching staff goes with a timeshare to keep Chubb fresher, especially if they are looking like they will make the postseason

IMO, I'm adding the risk factor of Hunt into my ranking of Chubb and, if I get him, I get him at an appropriate value.  To not include SOME sort of downgrade due to Hunt's presence is doing a disservice to yourself.  Also, no sense in taking Hunt during the draft unless you have a huge bench.  You're gonna drop him as soon as injuries hit and you need to save your dinged up starters.

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21 hours ago, Justakicker said:

How much do we think Chubb is going to be used in the passing game with Browns? I'm in a PPR league and he intrigues me. 

Tough to say. Chubb had 20 receptions last season, all in the nine games he started (2.2 catches per game). Duke is obviously still there and he caught 47 balls or 2.9 per game (both of which were actually career lows) and that likely won't rise much, if at all, considering how many weapons Cleveland now has. 

Clearly people in this thread disagree about how much Hunt will be used upon his return but in the 27 games he has played as a pro, he's averaged 2.9 receptions as well, with a yards per catch more than 3 yards higher than Chubb's 2018. He won't see workhorse snaps in Cleveland, but if he's on the field he will likely be utilized in the passing game. 

Bottom line, there will be two RBs on the Cleveland roster by mid-season who have historically been a bit more proficient than Chubb in catching the ball. I think around 45 catches would likely be Chubb's ceiling for the season. 

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If this situation stays murky by draft day, it will be interesting to see how auction bidding goes on both Chubb and Hunt. :) If I don't have Chubb I am so going to mess with the guy who gets him and bids on Hunt

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3 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

What is it on FFC?

 

19 (PPR 12 teamer)

Edited by nonstopfan

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On 8/6/2019 at 2:26 PM, Brownsfan74 said:

 

IMO, I'm adding the risk factor of Hunt into my ranking of Chubb and, if I get him, I get him at an appropriate value.  To not include SOME sort of downgrade due to Hunt's presence is doing a disservice to yourself.  Also, no sense in taking Hunt during the draft unless you have a huge bench.  You're gonna drop him as soon as injuries hit and you need to save your dinged up starters.

I agree with not drafting Hunt because roster space is too valuable especially through the bye weeks to start week 1 holding a player for week 10. But that's also why I'm not downgrading Chubb much because of the later presence of Hunt. Fantasy players often overplan for the fantasy playoffs and weeks 9 through 13 in weeks 1 through 6 (selecting players based on fantasy playoff strength of schedule and all other sorts of planning way too far ahead) instead of planning for weeks 1 through 6. The same reason people shouldn't get excited about drafting Hunt for his upside around the point when he'll finally be available is also a reason not to think too much about how his production will eat into Chubb's way down the line. By week 10 most people are playing with at least one of the top RBs they drafted being injured and starting people like last year's Nick Chubb or Damien Williams anyways so I figure grab the great production now (similar to grabbing Kamara last year when Ingram was out) and don't worry too much that its going to take a hit much later in the year. 

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