munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

What's everyone's take on this guy's ADP right now? I've been seeing it fluctuate so much, anywhere from the 1/2 turn to almost pick 30 in other places. It seems like people have very different opinions on where he should be drafted, so just wanted to see where you all think is a good place to take him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, GoPackGo23 said:

What's everyone's take on this guy's ADP right now? I've been seeing it fluctuate so much, anywhere from the 1/2 turn to almost pick 30 in other places. It seems like people have very different opinions on where he should be drafted, so just wanted to see where you all think is a good place to take him.

 

I’m taking him #5 overall. He has the best situation by far of the non-top 4 RBs, and he appears to be every bit as talented as anyone outside the top 4 guys.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I mentioned it before, but I'm taking him in the back 4 spots in the 1st round, due to the fact that a WR will come back around, but Chubb wont.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hoping to get him at 11, but yahoo has him #9 overall so doubt I will. Seems safest pick after the top 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, GoPackGo23 said:

What's everyone's take on this guy's ADP right now? I've been seeing it fluctuate so much, anywhere from the 1/2 turn to almost pick 30 in other places. It seems like people have very different opinions on where he should be drafted, so just wanted to see where you all think is a good place to take him.

23-27 range 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/8/2019 at 3:32 PM, Bmore86 said:

Why not? Plenty of top offenses support 2 backs.

I decided to look at this claim over the past 3 years. The criteria was an offense had to support at least one top 12 back and another top 24 back.

2018 - Michel (24th) White 11th)

2017 - Ingram (6th) Kamara (4th)

2016 - Coleman (17th) Freeman (6th)

2 of these teams are top 100 all time in scoring. The 2016 Falcons had a top 10 offense all time. The Patriots JUST missed the top 100 cut and heavily relied on the run game and check downs to keep Brady fresh. Not only that, NE made the cut by the smallest of margins. 

So my question is how do plenty of offenses support 2 relevant backs? There's been 1 per average over the past 3 seasons and they all have been historically great. I'm fairly certain Chubb will finish the season as a top 12 back which means he will deliver on his ADP in theory. However, I also expect him to range somewhere in the 15-20 range over the second half of the season which is the most important part. If you are taking Chubb top 15 you are banking on one of two things happening

1) Kareem Hunt will be extremely limited

2) Browns will have a historically great offense

In other words, a guy that over two seasons averaged 1,760 yards per season and 16 TDs (2018 season averaged over 16 games) will be limited or an offense with a second year QB will be a top 100 offense all time. I don't see either of those things happening. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I decided to look at this claim over the past 3 years. The criteria was an offense had to support at least one top 12 back and another top 24 back.

2018 - Michel (24th) White 11th)

2017 - Ingram (6th) Kamara (4th)

2016 - Coleman (17th) Freeman (6th)

2 of these teams are top 100 all time in scoring. The 2016 Falcons had a top 10 offense all time. The Patriots JUST missed the top 100 cut and heavily relied on the run game and check downs to keep Brady fresh. Not only that, NE made the cut by the smallest of margins. 

So my question is how do plenty of offenses support 2 relevant backs? There's been 1 per average over the past 3 seasons and they all have been historically great. I'm fairly certain Chubb will finish the season as a top 12 back which means he will deliver on his ADP in theory. However, I also expect him to range somewhere in the 15-20 range over the second half of the season which is the most important part. If you are taking Chubb top 15 you are banking on one of two things happening

1) Kareem Hunt will be extremely limited

2) Browns will have a historically great offense

In other words, a guy that over two seasons averaged 1,760 yards per season and 16 TDs (2018 season averaged over 16 games) will be limited or an offense with a second year QB will be a top 100 offense all time. I don't see either of those things happening. 

How many teams have had 2 top 10 ish backs though?

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he's going a little high. Everything is good except we don't what type of offense this is going to be.  This should be a passing team and I don't know how I feel about taking a back in passing offense that doesn't catch passes. I'd rank him right before Aaron Jones maybe RB 13. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Or, 3) Kareem Hunt will be traded

Who in their right mind spends a first round pick with the hopes that a guy needs to be traded for a return on value?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really want him at the turn but I think it’s just a tad to early for him. I’m not worried about hunt, give me 10 weeks of elite production and I’m happy. If hunt makes it a time share it is what it is, but you have to make the playoffs first. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Who in their right mind spends a first round pick with the hopes that a guy needs to be traded for a return on value?

Trade or no trade, there will be value.  For at least half the season, Chubb will be a top 5 RB.  Maybe top 3.  And if Hunt is still around afterward, Chubb is still an RB1.  He's first round value regardless.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Chardo said:

Trade or no trade, there will be value.  For at least half the season, Chubb will be a top 5 RB.  Maybe top 3.  And if Hunt is still around afterward, Chubb is still an RB1.  He's first round value regardless.

If Hunt is around do you think Browns will have a historically great offense or that they won’t use a guy that averages a TD per game and 1,750 yards per season? That’s the only way Chubb holds RB1 value after week 8.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Gohawks said:

If Hunt is around do you think Browns will have a historically great offense or that they won’t use a guy that averages a TD per game and 1,750 yards per season? That’s the only way Chubb holds RB1 value after week 8.

I think even with Hunt in the lineup, Chubb will have earned himself the majority of the snaps, and can produce RB1 numbers.  It's also unfair to assume Hunt would produce those same numbers, which he did with what really was a historically great offense.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want Chubb in every league that i play in. After they traded away Duke it's his entire backfield at least until Hunt comes along but there should be plenty to go around. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The fear of a guy coming in after week 10 (!) and suddenly stealing a ton of carries after what should be a really solid season by the Browns, built on the back of Chubb/Baker, is really overblown. He will definitely get some play, but unless Chubb falls on his face he will maintain the larger workload. I look at Hunt as more of a suped up Duke Johnson than some world beater they're going to flip flop 2/3 of the way into the season.

 

Edit: And what are the other RBs you would take instead in that range....Kerryon? Jones? Gordon? I think I'd be fading Chubb harder if everyone around him didn't have such question marks.

Edited by kball09
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I’m torn between chubb and cook at the turn... really can’t decide. 

Take Chubb and don't look back. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Take Chubb and don't look back. 

Yeah I was pretty set on cook until Duke Johnson was traded. I think chubb has a chance to finish in the top 5 now though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even with duke gone can we count on chubb for 50 plus catches? That's what he would need to be a top 5 back 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jay2491 said:

Even with duke gone can we count on chubb for 50 plus catches? That's what he would need to be a top 5 back 

I think yes, but it’s hard to say. 40-50 is right about where I would project him. My biggest concern for him is o line currently 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Chardo said:

It's also unfair to assume Hunt would produce those same numbers, which he did with what really was a historically great offense.  

Hunt led the league in rushing with Alex Smith as his QB. Alex Smith couldn’t even pronounce “historically great offense”. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Hunt led the league in rushing with Alex Smith as his QB. Alex Smith couldn’t even pronounce “historically great offense”. 

The 2017 Chiefs were just the second team in NFL history to feature a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard running back, a 1,000-yard wide receiver and a 1,000-yard tight end, joining the 1981 Chargers.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

The 2017 Chiefs were just the second team in NFL history to feature a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard running back, a 1,000-yard wide receiver and a 1,000-yard tight end, joining the 1981 Chargers.

 

To which Smith responded: Opta ardua pennis astra sequi.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.