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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Based on?  Ware, West and Williams have all been successful but not to the level that Hunt was.

Small size sample size for sure, but most of Damien’s numbers last year were better than Hunts after he took over the lead back role. 

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11 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

As far as the whole Hunt impact, he's not some guy who was mid-career before he had the off-the-field incident. He just turned 24 8 days ago and has just 453 carries to his resume.

He's extremely talented and since he is on just a 1-year contract I have to think the Browns will want to see what they have with him in hopes of re-signing him and I think he'll be just as eager to prove himself and re-sign given that they did him a big favor by signing him as a Cleveland native.

I don't think Cleveland signed such a talented back to 1-year deal only for him to be a pure backup to Chubb and then have him walk on to some other team next year. I could easily see him getting up to 1/3rd or slightly more of the touches as the 2nd half progresses to keep both backs in game mode and fresh for presumably a playoff push.

 

They also had to weather the media backlash when signing Hunt in the first place, something a team probably wouldn't have done without some intent on using the player when they're eligible to return.

 

Obviously none of us can predict what the Browns are truly thinking but with the NFL being very "copycat", it's not at all unreasonable to think the Browns see what teams like New Orleans and New England do with their running backs and are looking to work off of that blueprint. Chubb and Hunt are both very talented but also appear to have varying  skill sets between them, it is to the benefit of a team trying to win real world football games that they utilize both weapons appropriately while they have them for cheap. Either way Chubb still holds strong value if you're a believer of Cleveland's offense.. even 8 weeks of surefire RB1 production is a huge difference maker in terms of fantasy football

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Just now, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Their touches may have been the same in terms of totals but I don't believe they weren't used as interchangeably as this indicates on paper. To start the game and in the biggest situations, it was almost always Kamara.

 

Yes, in football terms it wasn't necessarily even.  The argument I was refuting was that Ingram was "sprinkled in".  That clearly wasn't the case.

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5 minutes ago, BRIGUY11 said:

If Chubb is tearing it up and Hillard fills the shoes of duke johnsonin the first 6 weeks, I think there’s an outside chance hunt could be traded before the deadline to a rb needy team. Pretty far fetched ,but wouldn’t surprise me if that was the browns thought process when they signed Hunt. Especially how active they’ve been in the trade market.

If Chubb stumbles and hillard doesn’t preform well, then they will have Hunt on the cheap.

I believe Hunt is a great talent but let’s not forget what system he was in last year, journeyman D Williams looks like a superstar in that system.

 

Yea for all of 50 carries and 23 catches. 

If you look at more than just YPC and get into elusiveness ratings, broken tackles, YAC, etc Hunt is far better than Ware, Williams, or West.

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2 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Small size sample size for sure, but most of Damien’s numbers last year were better than Hunts after he took over the lead back role. 

 

Come on man. We're talking about 50 carries. 

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2 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Small size sample size for sure, but most of Damien’s numbers last year were better than Hunts after he took over the lead back role. 

Thanks was just posting this.  Damien Williams had a higher YPC and Fantasy PPG than Hunt during his run at the end of the season.

We've seen it over and over and over again over the years - Andy Reid's system is plug and play for RBs.  

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1 minute ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Yea for all of 50 carries and 23 catches. 

If you look at more than just YPC and get into elusiveness ratings, broken tackles, YAC, etc Hunt is far better than Ware, Williams, or West.

Do you have all of those metrics handy for Nick Chubb also?

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I don't subscribe to PFF, which is why i genuinely asked if you had all those metrics on hand for Chubb as well.  I was able to find Chubb's elusive rating from last year (103.3) which was the second highest mark ever graded by PFF since 2009, and was very much ahead of Kareem Hunt's 85.7 from last year.

 

So to answer the question of HOW is Chubb a better RB than Hunt, a few things I've come up with are a better elusive rating (your metric), a better YPC last year (while Hunt was in a very RB friendly offense) and Chubb's 98% SPARQ score compared to Hunt's 25%.  

Edited by Fort4242
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Why do people think Hunt is more talented RB than Chubb? He played in a better offense but Chubb was the higher draft pick and did pretty damn good himself in a lesser offense.

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Just now, Fort4242 said:

Do you have all of those metrics handy for Nick Chubb also?

 

I do and Chubb was more elusive last year & more broken tackles than Hunt but that is moving the goal posts a bit and Hunt ranked 4th. We were talking about Hunt compared to Ware/West/Williams. 

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2 minutes ago, yanksman said:

Why do people think Hunt is more talented RB than Chubb? He played in a better offense but Chubb was the higher draft pick and did pretty damn good himself in a lesser offense.

He isn't more talented than Chubb. Chubb is an amazing talent and without the college injury would have been a generational talent. It looks like he is mostly back as close to 100% as possible from that injury based on last season's performance.

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Just now, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I do and Chubb was more elusive last year & more broken tackles than Hunt but that is moving the goal posts a bit and Hunt ranked 4th. We were talking about Hunt compared to Ware/West/Williams. 

Gotcha - so yes I will concede that Hunt is a better RB than Ware, West, Williams - however it seems the data also supports my original claim that Chubb is a better RB than Kareem Hunt.  Which, again, would be a disservice to the team if they benched a stud RB for a lesser option, when the lesser option has been out of football for 11 weeks by the time he comes back.

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2 minutes ago, yanksman said:

Why do people think Hunt is more talented RB than Chubb? He played in a better offense but Chubb was the higher draft pick and did pretty damn good himself in a lesser offense.

 

I was wondering why do people think Chubb is so much more talented than Hunt? The numbers last year indicate that Chubb is better, yes, but it's not as dramatic as people make it seem.

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2 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Gotcha - so yes I will concede that Hunt is a better RB than Ware, West, Williams - however it seems the data also supports my original claim that Chubb is a better RB than Kareem Hunt.  Which, again, would be a disservice to the team if they benched a stud RB for a lesser option, when the lesser option has been out of football for 11 weeks by the time he comes back.

 

Ok, fair but again I'll just say that although Chubb > Hunt it is not by enough that the Browns wouldn't be wise to still use Hunt. The optimal strategy should be to use them both (like 60/40 or 65/35) to keep both but mainly Chubb fresh for a playoff push.

And also Chubb only had 20 catches last year. That doesn't mean he's bad at receiving, but Hunt has 79 career catches for 10.5 yds/rec which is pretty phenomenal.

Edited by sportsfreak2744

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33 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Yeah, you're still reaching.

I’m really not though. You’re statement was a reach if anything. A running back has more responsibility then just finding the hole and running straight. 

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1 minute ago, Ryansm11 said:

I’m really not though. You’re statement was a reach if anything. A running back has more responsibility then just finding the hole and running straight. 

 

I never said it was just finding the hole and running straight?

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2 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I never said it was just finding the hole and running straight?

Also, he's a RB....all he needs to know is where the hole is "supposed" to be on a given play (and often it's not there, which is why RB's need vision and tackle breaking ability).  If he were a QB or WR, then maybe he needs more time.

 

It was close enough. 

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36 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Also, he's a RB....all he needs to know is where the hole is "supposed" to be on a given play (and often it's not there, which is why RB's need vision and tackle breaking ability).  If he were a QB or WR, then maybe he needs more time.

 

It was close enough. 

 

That was BrownsFan74, not me...

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2 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

That was BrownsFan74, not me...

Sorry my dude, didn’t mean to attack you like that then. 🍻

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Just now, Ryansm11 said:

Sorry my dude, didn’t mean to attack you like that then. 🍻

 

All good. I don't think we disagree all that much on Chubb's value. And to be honest you've changed my mind on him - I think he's less of a risky pick & more upside than I had previously thought. I was just making the case that I think Hunt is far from done at 24. Whether that's this year with CLE or next year/beyond.

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Just now, daethfromabove1979 said:

Yahoo just adjusted their rankings and Chubb is now ranked at 6.

I wouldn’t put too much into a yahoo ranking

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8 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

That was BrownsFan74, not me...

 

Yes it was me and I admitted that pass pro was an oversight in my comment.  Having said that, pass pro shouldn't stop Hunt from playing right away.  He knows the playbook and knows his blocking assignment on pass plays, and as a vet, should know how to adjust his assignment depending on what the defense sends at the quarterback.

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5 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

Yahoo just adjusted their rankings and Chubb is now ranked at 6.

 

#6 overall or #6 RB?  I assume RB since I doubt he is above the big 4 RB and Hopkins/Adams, but I could be wrong.

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4 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Yes it was me and I admitted that pass pro was an oversight in my comment.  Having said that, pass pro shouldn't stop Hunt from playing right away.  He knows the playbook and knows his blocking assignment on pass plays, and as a vet, should know how to adjust his assignment depending on what the defense sends at the quarterback.

 

Yea I agree I don't think it will be much of a learning curve for Hunt. 

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