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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Yea I agree I don't think it will be much of a learning curve for Hunt. 

 

There shouldn't be any, really.  He is already running through the plays in training camp (and word out of camp is that he looks good doing it).  He knows the plays.  The week before he is active, he will have a full week of practice to run through the game plan.  He'll know what packages he is in (and the plays in the package).  If he isn't playing much it will be purely a coaching decision, not anything to do with Hunt needing to get acclimated.

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I do believe Hunt will see the field more than just spelling Chubb from time to time to give him a rest. If the Browns are having a good season it only makes sense to help split the load when you get a fresh Hunt back to keep Chubb fresh for a playoff run.

 

So the dilemma I'm having as a fantasy owner is...do I want to use a first/second round pick on a guy who will most likely be a stud for the first half of the season, but come playoff time might give me similar production to a RB I can wait until the middle rounds for? Where at the same spot instead take a guy like Cook who could have just as high of a ceiling when healthy and continue that upside into the fantasy playoffs. I'd rather have a RB1 on my team that has potential to post elite RB1 numbers in weeks 15 and 16 when it matters most, as opposed to having a good regular season and fizzling out because Chubb's ceiling gets capped when Hunt enters the mix. I'm not saying Hunt is going to take over, but let's say they do a 60/40 or 65/35 split, I'm not sure the volume will be there for Chubb to hit the same ceiling as other elite RBs going in the same range.

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I think it will be a Devonta Freeman (Chubb) and Tevin Coleman (Hunt) type situation by the time fantasy playoffs roll around. 

 

However, Hunt is a solid goal line back. I could see the team leaving Hunt in for the goal line carries if he has been in on that drive spelling Chubb. If I was confident Chubb would get all the goal line carries week 10 and on, this decision would be a little easier. 

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26 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

#6 overall or #6 RB?  I assume RB since I doubt he is above the big 4 RB and Hopkins/Adams, but I could be wrong.

 

6 overall, right ahead of Hopkins.

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

Thanks was just posting this.  Damien Williams had a higher YPC and Fantasy PPG than Hunt during his run at the end of the season.

We've seen it over and over and over again over the years - Andy Reid's system is plug and play for RBs.  

 

I believe Hunt was having a sort of down year in general prior to Williams replacing him.  Hunt is still the better RB, I don’t think that’s really in question.  The debate between he and Chubb seems much closer.  Hunt shouldn’t have any issue with Browns system.  He might be more effective even splitting carries with Chubb.  I am not sure if Chubb or Hunt is the better RB.  

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1 minute ago, brakeyawself said:

 

I believe Hunt was having a sort of down year in general prior to Williams replacing him.  Hunt is still the better RB, I don’t think that’s really in question.  The debate between he and Chubb seems much closer.  Hunt shouldn’t have any issue with Browns system.  He might be more effective even splitting carries with Chubb.  I am not sure if Chubb or Hunt is the better RB.  

 

Was on pace for 1200 yards rushing and 550 receiving.  4.6 YPC and 7 TDs through 11 games. 

Your perception may be off because he only had 1 game of over 100 yards rushing but he was performing at the same level he was in '17

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Ya'll gotta understand that just because Chubb may be better than Hunt (even that's debatable) that doesn't mean he won't split carries with him. Hunt is still a VERY good back. If you are a team in playoff contention as the Browns should be you will want to keep your guys as fresh as possible. Running Chubb over and over again when you have a great back like Hunt makes absolutely no sense. 

Kamara and Ingram were a prime example of this. The gap between Kamara and Ingram is far wider than that of Chubb and Hunt yet they were splitting carries. 

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6 minutes ago, brakeyawself said:

 

I believe Hunt was having a sort of down year in general prior to Williams replacing him.  Hunt is still the better RB, I don’t think that’s really in question.  The debate between he and Chubb seems much closer.  Hunt shouldn’t have any issue with Browns system.  He might be more effective even splitting carries with Chubb.  I am not sure if Chubb or Hunt is the better RB.  

You can’t just say hunt is better and then at the end say you’re not sure who’s better lol

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2 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Has anyone discussed the idea that Chubb is just a better RB than Kareem Hunt?  So even when Hunt gets back, they would be doing the team a disservice by putting a lesser player on the field for more than the occasional spell to give Chubb a breather.  Don't get me wrong Hunt achieved great things IN KANSAS CITY under Andy Reid, the same place/system that just about every RB has succeeded in - Damien Williams, Spencer Ware, Chark West - a bunch of JAGs who all had some level of success under Reid.  

I think Hunt will get more than 5 touches a game when he comes back, but Chubb should absolutely still be the horse with Hunt getting some touches, most probably coming in the passing game.  I look at Alvin Kamara from last year, but to a bit lesser extent.  He was the RB1 Overall while Ingram was out as New Orleans rode him for the first four weeks.  However, once Ingram came back, it was still the Kamara show with Ingram sprinkled in, and Kamara still went on to have a great season - RB2 from Week 7-16 last year.  Of course his average dropped from about 25 PPG down to 19 PPG, but still great production.

I expect a similar path for Chubb, maybe to a lesser extent.  Dynamite RB1 STUD production the first 10 weeks, and then once Hunt comes back I can see Chubb's PPG dip by a handful of points, but I expect he'll still get majority of touches and put up RB1 numbers down the stretch.

 

There is no clear determination about who is the better RB.  That’s pure opinion.  Chubb has yet to produce at the high level Hunt has, including Hunts rookie year I believe.  So Chubb May be better than Hunt, but he is yet to prove that statement.  Hunt has put up better stats than Hunt though, but without seeing them on an even plane we won’t know.

You could just as easily claim Hunt is the better RB and there is more evidence to support that statement.  Not sure which is actually the case though.

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

You can’t just say hunt is better and then at the end say you’re not sure who’s better lol

 

I meant Hunt is better than Williams.  Whether he or Chubb is better is still TBD.  But Hunt has produced better than Chubb thus far.

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4 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Was on pace for 1200 yards rushing and 550 receiving.  4.6 YPC and 7 TDs through 11 games. 

Your perception may be off because he only had 1 game of over 100 yards rushing but he was performing at the same level he was in '17

 

Thats possible.  

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Ya'll gotta understand that just because Chubb may be better than Hunt (even that's debatable) that doesn't mean he won't split carries with him. Hunt is still a VERY good back. If you are a team in playoff contention as the Browns should be you will want to keep your guys as fresh as possible. Running Chubb over and over again when you have a great back like Hunt makes absolutely no sense. 

Kamara and Ingram were a prime example of this. The gap between Kamara and Ingram is far wider than that of Chubb and Hunt yet they were splitting carries. 

 

Agree.  There are so many examples of where there is one RB who is clearly better than the other, yet they keep playing both in a timeshare.  It's going to be about the coaches want to do, more than the talent discrepancy.  And in this case, the "2nd" RB is a Pro Bowler, not Jamal Williams or Daniel Thomas.

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On 8/11/2019 at 9:09 PM, GoPackGo23 said:

I'm thinking about him in that top 15 range as well, along with Cook/Conner. I feel like Chubb belongs in that tier with Conner, Cook, Mixon, Bell and having a hard time sorting through those guys. But I would at least put Chubb a clear tier above the group with Freeman, Johnson, Mack, etc.

 

Personally, I rate Mixon and Bell better than Connor, Cook and Chubb.   Also rate their situations better as I expect Samuels, Mattison and Hunt to split more time than any 2nd RB on the Jets or Bengals.  I would probably also rate Johnson in a similar range as Chubb, Connor, Cook as he will have less competition.  But Johnson can still blow it, I don’t think he’s as clear a picture as the others. So I guess if I were drafting, I’d h ave him just after that group.

Edited by brakeyawself

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4 minutes ago, brakeyawself said:

 

I meant Hunt is better than Williams.  Whether he or Chubb is better is still TBD.  But Hunt has produced better than Chubb thus far.

 

Yes but you yourself made a good point about evaluating them on an even playing field.  There's nothing to say that if Chubb were on KC that he would have better stats than Hunt ever did.

Bottom line here is that Hunt has given us no reason to think he is not an excellent back.  Yes, he was in a great offense, but he put up great numbers.  Maybe he flops with the Browns, but nothing indicates that he will.  He needs to be considered a real threat to Chubb's workload when he gets back.

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3 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Yes but you yourself made a good point about evaluating them on an even playing field.  There's nothing to say that if Chubb were on KC that he would have better stats than Hunt ever did.

Bottom line here is that Hunt has given us no reason to think he is not an excellent back.  Yes, he was in a great offense, but he put up great numbers.  Maybe he flops with the Browns, but nothing indicates that he will.  He needs to be considered a real threat to Chubb's workload when he gets back.

 

I don’t disagree.  If I had to choose either Hunt or Chubb right now to be my franchises RB I would probably pick Hunt mostly because he has thus far shown the higher upside.  Chubb had a great year, but it’s not on Hunts even yet.

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8 minutes ago, brakeyawself said:

 

I don’t disagree.  If I had to choose either Hunt or Chubb right now to be my franchises RB I would probably pick Hunt mostly because he has thus far shown the higher upside.  Chubb had a great year, but it’s not on Hunts even yet.

No way - given that the talent level is pretty close...Chubb is the easy choice given Hunt's off-field issues.  One more misstep and he could be suspended for a very long time or even banned.

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If Hunt never got suspended there would be very little conversation who is the better back.

Hunt would have two seasons with well over 1,000 rushing yards each, near a TD per game, and an average of over 500 receiving yards per season. 

Again, Nick Chubb is VERY good. However, Hunt is also VERY good. I understand the difference in situation ahd Hunt played for a team that anyone can run for but the flim of him does a good job backing up the stats. You'd have to be quite a foolish coach to keep running Chubb into the ground with Hunt on your bench.

Edited by Gohawks
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58 minutes ago, GoPackGo23 said:

I do believe Hunt will see the field more than just spelling Chubb from time to time to give him a rest. If the Browns are having a good season it only makes sense to help split the load when you get a fresh Hunt back to keep Chubb fresh for a playoff run.

 

So the dilemma I'm having as a fantasy owner is...do I want to use a first/second round pick on a guy who will most likely be a stud for the first half of the season, but come playoff time might give me similar production to a RB I can wait until the middle rounds for? Where at the same spot instead take a guy like Cook who could have just as high of a ceiling when healthy and continue that upside into the fantasy playoffs. I'd rather have a RB1 on my team that has potential to post elite RB1 numbers in weeks 15 and 16 when it matters most, as opposed to having a good regular season and fizzling out because Chubb's ceiling gets capped when Hunt enters the mix. I'm not saying Hunt is going to take over, but let's say they do a 60/40 or 65/35 split, I'm not sure the volume will be there for Chubb to hit the same ceiling as other elite RBs going in the same range.

 

 

I think this is certainly a level headed approach to the situation but we can look at 2018's RB leaders between weeks 11-16 (the timeframe in which we anticipate Hunt impacting Chubb's production) and see that almost half of the player's in the top 12 were either guys who weren't drafted with elite expectations or simply didn't produce for chunks of the season.

 

The aforementioned leaders through week 11-16 of 2018:

4. Derrick Henry (4th Round ADP, didn't do much of anything all season up until this point)

5. Chris Carson (6th Round ADP)

8. Phillip Lindsay (frequently undrafted)

9. Dalvin Cook (2nd Round ADP but was hurt a good portion of the season)

10. Nick Chubb (11th Round ADP)

12 Tarik Cohen (8th Round ADP)

... a fraction of a point behind Cohen was Aaron Jones who also had a late ADP and didn't produce for large portions of the season..

 

And if you look at just Week 14-16 we're talking about guys like Damien Williams and Elijah McGuire who nobody expected to be on championship rosters..

 

Point being, fantasy football is a highly adaptive game (caption obvious) there's going to be plenty of 1st/2nd round busts this year that won't even give us the perceived 8/9 weeks of production we expect to see from Chubb. It's why we scour the waiver wire each week, take late round fliers on sleepers, etc. We don't anticipate having the same starting line-up week 1 as we do in the playoffs, so to be out on a guy who we anticipate (or at least theorize) will give us RB1 numbers for at least half the season because there is a possibility he may drop off a bit late in the year is a tough mindset to take considering we all will be making adjustments all season long to find depth at the RB position.

 

I could see the mindset of avoiding Chubb for someone like Cook (who himself could miss significant time due to injury) if Chubb were going in the top 5 overall range, but seeing as of right now he's going in the 2nd I think he's sitting at a fair ADP.

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How good is the Browns offensive line? Is anybody worried about the new offensive coordinator? From just looking at game logs Peyton Barber got a ton of carries last year but not much came of it. 

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6 minutes ago, cyberwatty said:

How good is the Browns offensive line? Is anybody worried about the new offensive coordinator? From just looking at game logs Peyton Barber got a ton of carries last year but not much came of it. 

 

Peyton Barber stinks.

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1 hour ago, cyberwatty said:

How good is the Browns offensive line? Is anybody worried about the new offensive coordinator? From just looking at game logs Peyton Barber got a ton of carries last year but not much came of it. 

Their o-line won't be as good as last year but they also have Odell now to stretch the field.

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3 hours ago, ludawg23 said:

No way - given that the talent level is pretty close...Chubb is the easy choice given Hunt's off-field issues.  One more misstep and he could be suspended for a very long time or even banned.

 

We are talking about who is the more talented RB, how time will be split this season.  His off the field issues are irrelevant to that for now, and my hypothetical franchise where off the field issues don’t matter ever.

Hunt is still the more talented RB until Chubb proves otherwise.  He has not done so yet.

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16 minutes ago, brakeyawself said:

 

We are talking about who is the more talented RB, how time will be split this season.  His off the field issues are irrelevant to that for now, and my hypothetical franchise where off the field issues don’t matter ever.

Hunt is still the more talented RB until Chubb proves otherwise.  He has not done so yet.

That is convenient :)

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Been grabbing Chubb in the early 2nd at the 1-2 turn my last two drafts. He's getting hyped up to the 1st round a lot but I don't think I'll take him over the current 1st rounders (10 team). People can say Hunt won't be a factor this season but it is still some risk you have to consider while drafting your top picks.

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