munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

You said above you were trying to sell after week 2. Week 3 wasn’t much different. You acknowledge that week 4 is an outlier, and weeks 1-3 are more realistic to expect going forward. So why wouldn’t you now be trying to sell again, much higher than before?

Dude I think it’s pretty easy to figure out what I’m trying to say. He isn’t scoring 3 TDS every game like yesterday but he’s also going to be much more involved and most likely have better games than weeks 1-3. So he scored close to 40 points yesterday right? So cut that in half which is 20 and that’s probably closer his average moving forward. Get it now? 

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1 hour ago, ShowStopper said:

 

So would've rather him have a 110/1 touchdown game? What exactly could he have done Sunday to impress you or satisfy you? Probably nothing because you have a biased opinion towards this guy for whatever reason. 

What Chubb did Sunday was awesome. I don’t believe I ever said otherwise. But I’m not a Chubb owner so while I envy those of you celebrating, sitting in on the circle jerk doesn’t interest me in the least. 

As an avid trader, my interest is in gauging Chubb’s value and trying to determine what to expect from him going forward. Imo, weeks 1-3 were relatively disappointing based on expectations. Over the first three weeks Chubb averaged 4.0 ypc, 77 ypg, with one TD. Plus another 4.6 catches and 33 yards receiving per game.

Week 4 he blows up, largely due to one 88 yard TD run in the 4th quarter which most would agree is somewhat flukey. Meaning, while incredibly impressive, it’s not something we should expect most weeks. I’m more concerned with his performance outside of that one play to get a better picture of his performance thus far and prospects going forward. Because again, most weeks won’t be buoyed by an incredible 88 yard TD run.

Outside of that one play, Chubb had 77 rushing yards on 19 carries for a 4.0 ypc. Exactly the same numbers he averaged over his disappointing weeks 1-3. Though, two of those 19 carries went for TDs which is fantastic. Still, a final stat line of 19/77/2 isn’t nearly as impressive as 20/165/3. 

So while I don’t blame Chubb owners in the least for being giddy, I’m still not sure we really know what to expect going forward. After Chubb’s monster week 4, defenses are going to be focused more than ever on shutting hum down and forcing Mayfield to beat them, and we haven’t seen evidence this year that he’s able to do that. If Chubb doesn’t rip off another 88 yarder next week, is it unfair to suggest we may be looking at roughly another 4.0 ypc, 77 yards, and maybe a TD in week 5?

Edited by Lamont Sanford

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6 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Dude I think it’s pretty easy to figure out what I’m trying to say. He isn’t scoring 3 TDS every game like yesterday but he’s also going to be much more involved and most likely have better games than weeks 1-3. So he scored close to 40 points yesterday right? So cut that in half which is 20 and that’s probably closer his average moving forward. Get it now? 

Bro, I get that ignoring consistent weeks 1-3, and taking Chubb’s outlier blow up week 4 game and cutting it in half to project ros weekly production is pretty whack.

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13 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Bro, I get that ignoring consistent weeks 1-3, and taking Chubb’s outlier blow up week 4 game and cutting it in half to project ros weekly production is pretty whack.

Dude your not listening. He blew up yesterday cause he took over the offense. Someone already posted stats of how baker has been making less pass attempts each week. So week 1 when baker was throwing the most wasn’t exactly in chubbs favor. That’s why I’m projecting more points than weeks 1-3 moving forward. People have broken this down for you so many different ways. Time to just throw in the towel at this point lol. Good luck.

Edited by StevenSC400

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2 hours ago, ShowStopper said:

 

So would've rather him have a 110/1 touchdown game? What exactly could he have done Sunday to impress you or satisfy you? Probably nothing because you have a biased opinion towards this guy for whatever reason. 

 

His opinion is that its going to be a 60/40 split when Hunt returns, and that's the hill he's going to die on 😂

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6 hours ago, munde53 said:

Except it was different, which is what I was trying to say but for some reason you seem to be only looking at the box score. The Browns gave Chubb a lot more off tackle work trying to get him to the edge instead of just pounding him into the center of the line. They also tried more screen passes which were all in an effort to get Chubb into space instead of the slamming him into his offensive line. 

Chubb's average production from here on out falls somewhere between week 4 and weeks 1-3. This isn't a fluke kind of game you seem to be making it out to be. 

 

2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

What Chubb did Sunday was awesome. I don’t believe I ever said otherwise. But I’m not a Chubb owner so while I envy those of you celebrating, sitting in on the circle jerk doesn’t interest me in the least. 

As an avid trader, my interest is in gauging Chubb’s value and trying to determine what to expect from him going forward. Imo, weeks 1-3 were relatively disappointing based on expectations. Over the first three weeks Chubb averaged 4.0 ypc, 77 ypg, with one TD. Plus another 4.6 catches and 33 yards receiving per game.

Week 4 he blows up, largely due to one 88 yard TD run in the 4th quarter which most would agree is somewhat flukey. Meaning, while incredibly impressive, it’s not something we should expect most weeks. I’m more concerned with his performance outside of that one play to get a better picture of his performance thus far and prospects going forward. Because again, most weeks won’t be buoyed by an incredible 88 yard TD run.

Outside of that one play, Chubb had 77 rushing yards on 19 carries for a 4.0 ypc. Exactly the same numbers he averaged over his disappointing weeks 1-3. Though, two of those 19 carries went for TDs which is fantastic. Still, a final stat line of 19/77/2 isn’t nearly as impressive as 20/165/3. 

So while I don’t blame Chubb owners in the least for being giddy, I’m still not sure we really know what to expect going forward. After Chubb’s monster week 4, defenses are going to be focused more than ever on shutting hum down and forcing Mayfield to beat them, and we haven’t seen evidence this year that he’s able to do that. If Chubb doesn’t rip off another 88 yarder next week, is it unfair to suggest we may be looking at roughly another 4.0 ypc, 77 yards, and maybe a TD in week 5?

Chubb is averaging 110 total yards though the first three weeks then in week four he puts up 183 and you're acting like it's a complete fluke. As I pointed out in my post above there is a strong reason to believe his production will continue to be at a high level going forward. Your entire argument is about reading box scores and attempting to predict the future based on empty numbers. 

Your last paragraph is frankly useless. I don't know why you keep saying "defenses are going to be focused more than ever on shutting [him] down" as if they weren't already. Chubb has excelled against stacked boxes in his career to this point (https://dawgpounddaily.com/2019/07/06/cleveland-browns-nick-chubb-thrived-2018-loaded-boxes/).

I'm not sure why you keep posting "77 yards" is all we can expect from Chubb in week 5. Does your league not count receiving yards?

Stop reading box scores a thinking you know everything just because you saw some stat lines. 

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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

What Chubb did Sunday was awesome. I don’t believe I ever said otherwise. But I’m not a Chubb owner so while I envy those of you celebrating, sitting in on the circle jerk doesn’t interest me in the least. 

As an avid trader, my interest is in gauging Chubb’s value and trying to determine what to expect from him going forward. Imo, weeks 1-3 were relatively disappointing based on expectations. Over the first three weeks Chubb averaged 4.0 ypc, 77 ypg, with one TD. Plus another 4.6 catches and 33 yards receiving per game.

Week 4 he blows up, largely due to one 88 yard TD run in the 4th quarter which most would agree is somewhat flukey. Meaning, while incredibly impressive, it’s not something we should expect most weeks. I’m more concerned with his performance outside of that one play to get a better picture of his performance thus far and prospects going forward. Because again, most weeks won’t be buoyed by an incredible 88 yard TD run.

Outside of that one play, Chubb had 77 rushing yards on 19 carries for a 4.0 ypc. Exactly the same numbers he averaged over his disappointing weeks 1-3. Though, two of those 19 carries went for TDs which is fantastic. Still, a final stat line of 19/77/2 isn’t nearly as impressive as 20/165/3. 

So while I don’t blame Chubb owners in the least for being giddy, I’m still not sure we really know what to expect going forward. After Chubb’s monster week 4, defenses are going to be focused more than ever on shutting hum down and forcing Mayfield to beat them, and we haven’t seen evidence this year that he’s able to do that. If Chubb doesn’t rip off another 88 yarder next week, is it unfair to suggest we may be looking at roughly another 4.0 ypc, 77 yards, and maybe a TD in week 5?

 

 

 

 

 

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The bloke from yahoo who ranked Chubb #1 overall might of been onto something...

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8 minutes ago, munde53 said:

 

Chubb is averaging 110 total yards though the first three weeks then in week four he puts up 183 and you're acting like it's a complete fluke. As I pointed out in my post above there is a strong reason to believe his production will continue to be at a high level going forward. Your entire argument is about reading box scores and attempting to predict the future based on empty numbers. 

Your last paragraph is frankly useless. I don't know why you keep saying "defenses are going to be focused more than ever on shutting [him] down" as if they weren't already. Chubb has excelled against stacked boxes in his career to this point (https://dawgpounddaily.com/2019/07/06/cleveland-browns-nick-chubb-thrived-2018-loaded-boxes/).

I'm not sure why you keep posting "77 yards" is all we can expect from Chubb in week 5. Does your league not count receiving yards?

Stop reading box scores a thinking you know everything just because you saw some stat lines. 

Chubb averaged 77 rushing yards per game at 4.0 ypc through week 3. In week 4, Outside of the flukey 88 yard TD, Chubb had, you guessed it, 77 yards at 4.0 ypc. Yes, he had a few receptions too, but weeks 1-3 were far from elite production.

Stop bring so damn defensive for crying out loud. You have Nick Chubb, he had a great game, enjoy it. No need to get all flustered when someone questions what to expect going forward. Hopefully for Chubb owners he has more games like week 4, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he has more games like weeks 1-3.

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14 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Chubb averaged 77 rushing yards per game at 4.0 ypc through week 3. In week 4, Outside of the flukey 88 yard TD, Chubb had, you guessed it, 77 yards at 4.0 ypc. Yes, he had a few receptions too, but weeks 1-3 were far from elite production.

Stop bring so damn defensive for crying out loud. You have Nick Chubb, he had a great game, enjoy it. No need to get all flustered when someone questions what to expect going forward. Hopefully for Chubb owners he has more games like week 4, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he has more games like weeks 1-3.

In .5 PPR he was worth 6 points less than Zeke weeks 1-3.  If my biggest problem is that my RB1 is averaging 2 less points per game than the consensus most talented back in the best situation, and then every 4th game he drops a 40 burger, I'd say those are penthouse problems.

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I don't understand what you people above are arguing about. Chubb is a top 5 RB#1 right now. The team may have just figured that out but we knew that when we drafted him. Start him with confidence. That's all that needs to be said. ***Drops mic and walks off stage with 30+ points.***

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What would it take for you to part with Chubb? What is his relative value? Would you need an Elliott or McCaffrey or Cook? Anyone else rated above Chubb right now?

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10 minutes ago, Newtown said:

What would it take for you to part with Chubb? What is his relative value? Would you need an Elliott or McCaffrey or Cook? Anyone else rated above Chubb right now?

 

Well the rest of my team is a 1-4 garbage heap crumbling around me, so if you can help a struggling team with their weakness + RB you might have a shot.

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10 hours ago, Newtown said:

What would it take for you to part with Chubb? What is his relative value? Would you need an Elliott or McCaffrey or Cook? Anyone else rated above Chubb right now?

 

As a chubb owner, I've been looking to deal him given that Hunt poses a risk. However, when I'm looking for a trade target, I have trouble finding running backs in a similar price range that do not have some kind of red flag. Ive decided to stick with Chubb. 

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2 minutes ago, Brianmsbc said:

 

As a chubb owner, I've been looking to deal him given that Hunt poses a risk. However, when I'm looking for a trade target, I have trouble finding running backs in a similar price range that do not have some kind of red flag. Ive decided to stick with Chubb. 

I am trying to make a deal with another owner.  He has Hunt & CMC.  He has Witten as his TE.  I am offering him Chubb and Hooper for CMC.  Doubt he bites but he would have Chubb and Hunt as well as a TE1.  

Edited by FFdisciple
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1 minute ago, Brianmsbc said:

 

As a chubb owner, I've been looking to deal him given that Hunt poses a risk. However, when I'm looking for a trade target, I have trouble finding running backs in a similar price range that do not have some kind of red flag. Ive decided to stick with Chubb. 

 

What running backs do you consider to be "in a similar price range"? 

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2 minutes ago, Newtown said:

 

What running backs do you consider to be "in a similar price range"? 

Elliott, CMC, & Cook.  I feel anyone else would be a tier lower.  

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Just now, FFdisciple said:

Elliott, CMC, & Cook.  I feel anyone else would be a tier lower.  

 

I like Elliott in a trade, but Chubb appears to have a better Strength of Schedule (2 for Chubb; 22 for Elliott according to FantasyPros) especially in the playoffs.

Weeks 14-16:

Elliott gets Bears, Rams and Eagles.

Chubb gets Bengals, Cardinals and Ravens.

But then there is the looming Hunt risk...

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Just now, Newtown said:

 

I like Elliott in a trade, but Chubb appears to have a better Strength of Schedule (2 for Chubb; 22 for Elliott according to FantasyPros) especially in the playoffs.

Weeks 14-16:

Elliott gets Bears, Rams and Eagles.

Chubb gets Bengals, Cardinals and Ravens.

But then there is the looming Hunt risk...

i like Chubb for 6 more weeks.  Love how he runs.  Not sure what will happen post Hunt return.  Has me nervous.  

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All this talk of Hunt reminds me of people wanting to draft Kamara last year for the first four games but were concerned after Ingram got back from suspension.  Obviously Kamara's more of a reciever than Chubb, and Ingram proved more with the Saints than Hunt has with the Browns.

But Kamara is still Kamara and Chubb is still Chubb guys.

I get it, you have those Chiefs games crystallized in your brain.  They're gone.  This is a new thing.

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Except... we don't know how Browns operate with two RBs and Saints have been operating with two RBs successfully for years... and Kareem Hunt is no bum.

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Just now, JE7HorseGod said:

All this talk of Hunt reminds me of people wanting to draft Kamara last year for the first four games but were concerned after Ingram got back from suspension.  Obviously Kamara's more of a reciever than Chubb, and Ingram proved more with the Saints than Hunt has with the Browns.

But Kamara is still Kamara and Chubb is still Chubb guys.

I get it, you have those Chiefs games crystallized in your brain.  They're gone.  This is a new thing.

Not centered on the Chiefs at all just have concerns Hunt might take good oppurtunities from Chubb.  Hopefully management saw yesterday what they need to commit to Chubb.  Not saying the sky is falling but I do have my concerns.  

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2 minutes ago, FFdisciple said:

Not centered on the Chiefs at all just have concerns Hunt might take good oppurtunities from Chubb.  Hopefully management saw yesterday what they need to commit to Chubb.  Not saying the sky is falling but I do have my concerns.  

Instead of 50 points he'll be reduced to 25. Rich man's problems. Jokes aside, Hunt looked terrible in preseason and had surgery. He's probably been resting and will need to get back in game shape. He "may" be a third down guy but likely he will just come in when Chubb needs a rest. I can see the Browns giving Chubb some rest heading into the playoffs but he won't sit. Considering that the Browns have not played up to expectations it looks like they will be fighting for a playoff spot anyway.

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10 minutes ago, Thinkingcap said:

Except... we don't know how Browns operate with two RBs and Saints have been operating with two RBs successfully for years... and Kareem Hunt is no bum.

That's my point, Ingram isn't a bum either.

Having good depth doesn't mean that you take the ball away from the guys who make plays.

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12 minutes ago, FFdisciple said:

Not centered on the Chiefs at all just have concerns Hunt might take good oppurtunities from Chubb.  Hopefully management saw yesterday what they need to commit to Chubb.  Not saying the sky is falling but I do have my concerns.  

What would that be centered on other than Hunt w/ the Chiefs?  That concern can't be coming from Nick Chubb's performance and abilities in 2019.

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