munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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Even almost had a long td run against the 49ers last week it’s was like a 55 yard run, this dude is a beast sure fire stud , he’s a top 5 rb and will be rest of season hands down 

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27 minutes ago, kraftwrk_5 said:

Imagine how good this guy could be if the Browns actually had a competent offensive line and coach.

 

Fixed

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On 10/12/2019 at 4:57 AM, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

3) Kareem Hunt return in week 9. He might not have a big role, idk, but Cleveland dealt with the PR hit only to bench him? I highly doubt it so I'm somewhat concerned about Kareem Hunt. He can catch and he's elusive. If he takes just 20% of Chubb's work, it knocks Chubb down to high rb2

 

We've seen what missing time does for a RB with Melvin Gordon. He's looked anything but "game shape". So I highly doubt that Hunt will come in and impress right away. It will likely take a week or two for him to get back into things.

Let's say Hunt does take 20%. Heck let's say he takes 30%. You think that makes Chubb an RB2? Meaning you can name 10-12 RBs you'd value higher?

Edited by sportsfreak2744
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2 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

We've seen what missing time does for a RB with Melvin Gordon. He's looked anything but "game shape". So I highly doubt that Hunt will come in and impress right away. It will likely take a week or two for him to get back into things.

Let's say Hunt does take 20%. Heck let's say he takes 30%. You think that makes Chubb an RB2? Meaning you can name 10-12 RBs you'd value higher?

 

Yes could you not? CMC, Cook, Kamara, Zeke, Bell, Carson, Fournette, David Johnson, Saquon. You could make an argument for Conner, Melvin, Aaron Jones, Mack or Jacobs.

 

If you took away 30% of his value, he's averaging 15.2 PPR, which is rb19 on the season. 20% and you're at 17.2 or rb11. Heck take away 10% and he's at 19.4 or rb7

Edited by Itachi_is_the_goat
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10 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

Yes could you not? CMC, Cook, Kamara, Zeke, Bell, Carson, Fournette, David Johnson, Saquon. You could make an argument for Conner, Melvin, Aaron Jones, Mack or Jacobs.

 

If you took away 30% of his value, he's averaging 15.2 PPR, which is rb19 on the season. 20% and you're at 17.2 or rb11. Heck take away 10% and he's at 19.4 or rb7

Imagine still thinking Aaron Jones is good. 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Imagine still thinking Aaron Jones is good. 

 

Funny, Aaron Jones owners were laughing at the thought that Jamaal Williams would have a role after AJones 4 TDs. Or what about Damien Williams owners when Shady was signed. Duke Johnson owners who thought Hyde wasn't a threat?

 

The point is it's possible Hunt gets work. Why would the Browns roster him through his 8 game suspension only for him to get 2 snaps a game after being allowed to play again. If I had no use for him, I'd have cut him. You never know...

 

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8 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

Funny, Aaron Jones owners were laughing at the thought that Jamaal Williams would have a role after AJones 4 TDs. Or what about Damien Williams owners when Shady was signed. Duke Johnson owners who thought Hyde wasn't a threat?

 

The point is it's possible Hunt gets work. Why would the Browns roster him through his 8 game suspension only for him to get 2 snaps a game after being allowed to play again. If I had no use for him, I'd have cut him. You never know...

 

Not 100% true. We held out hope that Matt LaFleur had one tiny brain cell capable of logic. I'm sure Chubb owners feel the same about Kitchens. They "hope".

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31 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

Funny, Aaron Jones owners were laughing at the thought that Jamaal Williams would have a role after AJones 4 TDs. Or what about Damien Williams owners when Shady was signed. Duke Johnson owners who thought Hyde wasn't a threat?

 

The point is it's possible Hunt gets work. Why would the Browns roster him through his 8 game suspension only for him to get 2 snaps a game after being allowed to play again. If I had no use for him, I'd have cut him. You never know...

 

Aaron Jones and Damien Williams are talented RBs.

They are not Nick Chubb.

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3 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Aaron Jones and Damien Williams are talented RBs.

They are not Nick Chubb.

Chubb is tier 1, Jones is tier 2, and Damien is tier JAG.

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3 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

Chubb is tier 1, Jones is tier 2, and Damien is tier JAG.

I'm not a huge fan of fostering GB RBs writ large, it seems like it's always some sort of committee approach and looking at what LaFleur inexplicably did with TEN last year it seemed like it was likely to be infuriating.

That said, Jones is a talented dude in a vaccum, like you say tier 2 in talent, but god knows what in usage.

Williams does all the little things well, that can play in Reid's offense, particularly when they get Fisher back.  But yeah it's a mess.

To compare these guys to Nick Chubb, I would say that OP sounds hopeful that he hasn't lost significant value in his trade and is talking himself into scenarios that just aren't comparable.

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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

 

If there's any truth to this?  MASSIVE uplift.

I'm going to go try and get Chubb now before the news gets around my league. That would be huge! Wow!

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1 minute ago, FitzMagic said:

I'm going to go try and get Chubb now before the news gets around my league. That would be huge! Wow!

It might revive OBJ and Landry and who knows, maybe even Baker too.

I know, blasphemous to suggest that a mere all pro left tackle could make an offense look better.

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23 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm not a huge fan of fostering GB RBs writ large, it seems like it's always some sort of committee approach and looking at what LaFleur inexplicably did with TEN last year it seemed like it was likely to be infuriating.

That said, Jones is a talented dude in a vaccum, like you say tier 2 in talent, but god knows what in usage.

Williams does all the little things well, that can play in Reid's offense, particularly when they get Fisher back.  But yeah it's a mess.

To compare these guys to Nick Chubb, I would say that OP sounds hopeful that he hasn't lost significant value in his trade and is talking himself into scenarios that just aren't comparable.

 

I wasn't comparing them. I was comparing their situations. It doesn't really matter how talented the #1 rb is by himself but rather in relation to his backup. To make my point, if Zeke and Saquon were in the same backfield do you believe Saquon would get all the work or would they split? Obvoiusly an extreme example. Do you believe the talent between Mixon and Bernard is less than Chubb and Hunt? Caus Mixon is averaging 60% of snaps. What about Kerryon and Ty Johnson? 

 

All I'm saying is you guys are convinced that Kareem Hunt will have no role but I'm not so sure and I traded. I'm off the Chubb wagon. I have no dog in this fight. One of you guys asked me if I could name 10 and I did. That's not me trying to delude myself, that's me explaining my thought process when challenged. 

 

image.png.487278f0690b8b044e2b92c5186c5360.png

These are the snap shares Chubb (bottom) had last year when Duke (top) was on the roster. It's is so inconceivable that Hunt can not get 75% of what Duke got?

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It doesn't affect me anymore. Take it for what you will. But if thy end up splitting 65-35 come fantasy playoff time don't say it was hindsight bias when trying to explain it. 

Edited by Itachi_is_the_goat

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4 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

I wasn't comparing them. I was comparing their situations. It doesn't really matter how talented the #1 rb is by himself but rather in relation to his backup. To make my point, if Zeke and Saquon were in the same backfield do you believe Saquon would get all the work or would they split? Obvoiusly an extreme example. Do you believe the talent between Mixon and Bernard is less than Chubb and Hunt? Caus Mixon is averaging 60% of snaps. What about Kerryon and Ty Johnson? 

 

All I'm saying is you guys are convinced that Kareem Hunt will have no role but I'm not so sure and I traded. I'm off the Chubb wagon. I have no dog in this fight. One of you guys asked me if I could name 10 and I did. That's not me trying to delude myself, that's me explaining my thought process when challenged. 

 

image.png.487278f0690b8b044e2b92c5186c5360.png

These are the snap shares Chubb (bottom) had last year when Duke (top) was on the roster. It's is so inconceivable that Hunt can not get 75% of what Duke got?

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It doesn't affect me anymore. Take it for what you will. But if thy end up splitting 65-35 come fantasy playoff time don't say it was hindsight bias when trying to explain it. 

Dude Chubb a beast, hunt making 1 mil........ nuff said move on you messed up and now your trying to make your self feel good about it , but the reality is your going to be very upset come Sunday ...... very very upset 

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19 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

I wasn't comparing them. I was comparing their situations. It doesn't really matter how talented the #1 rb is by himself but rather in relation to his backup. To make my point, if Zeke and Saquon were in the same backfield do you believe Saquon would get all the work or would they split? Obvoiusly an extreme example. Do you believe the talent between Mixon and Bernard is less than Chubb and Hunt? Caus Mixon is averaging 60% of snaps. What about Kerryon and Ty Johnson? 

 

All I'm saying is you guys are convinced that Kareem Hunt will have no role but I'm not so sure and I traded. I'm off the Chubb wagon. I have no dog in this fight. One of you guys asked me if I could name 10 and I did. That's not me trying to delude myself, that's me explaining my thought process when challenged. 

 

image.png.487278f0690b8b044e2b92c5186c5360.png

These are the snap shares Chubb (bottom) had last year when Duke (top) was on the roster. It's is so inconceivable that Hunt can not get 75% of what Duke got?

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It doesn't affect me anymore. Take it for what you will. But if thy end up splitting 65-35 come fantasy playoff time don't say it was hindsight bias when trying to explain it. 

It's not inconceivable.  It's quite possible.

But as you've effectively demonstrated - Nick Chubb is not a volume play.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ChubNi00/gamelog/2018/

Take a look at what he accomplished once installed as a starter in week 7.

You've effectively got one game outlier where he didn't get more than 65 yards on the ground in games that counted (he scored a TD in that game).

You'll notice something else about those game logs, more W's than before.

We're talking about a guy who had 100 yards on 3 carries. 

I'm not saying Kareem Hunt won't have a role.

I'm saying his role can't be significant enough to make Chubb less valuable for his team in real life and for fantasy owners.  Just because he's seen volume early on this season doesn't mean that giving some of that volume to Hunt will knock him down from an elite tier.  Quite the opposite.  Spelling Chubb periodically with someone who can also break tackles puts him closer to the goal line.  It yields more TDs for the whole offense.

You say you have no dog in this fight.  I beg to differ.  Your dog is named seller's remorse.

I won't talk about hindsight, if you don't when they end up splitting 65-35 come playoff time and he's still dropping 30 burgers.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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I’ve felt all along that the Browns got Hunt as trade bait and will use him to upgrade elsewhere. 

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Just now, Braves16 said:

I’ve felt all along that the Browns got Hunt as trade bait and will use him to upgrade elsewhere. 

I don't think they can trade him while he's suspended and he gets back after the deadline.

I think they got him to spell Chubb.  I hope he's really good at it.  If he puts in big rips between the 20s that means more work for Chubb inside the five. 

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15 hours ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

Yes could you not? CMC, Cook, Kamara, Zeke, Bell, Carson, Fournette, David Johnson, Saquon. You could make an argument for Conner, Melvin, Aaron Jones, Mack or Jacobs.

 

If you took away 30% of his value, he's averaging 15.2 PPR, which is rb19 on the season. 20% and you're at 17.2 or rb11. Heck take away 10% and he's at 19.4 or rb7

 

Chubb's last 16 games played:

1,430 rushing yards, 40 rec, 277 yds, 14 TD

 

Many of those RBs you listed have baggage like Chubb does:

  • Kamara has an ankle issue and hasn't been nearly as effective with Bridgewater
  • Bell has gone over 100 total yards just once this year
  • Carson has a really tough 2nd half schedule coming up (TB, @SF, @PHI, MIN in a row!)
  • D.Johnson has been having back issues which will be something to monitor closely
  • Melvin has looked terrible thanks to awful OL play and being out of game shape
  • Aaron Jones has to deal with Jamaal Williams
  • Saquon is returning from a sprained ankle to a rookie QB and an anemic passing attack

 

Outside of CMC, Cook & maybe Zeke it's really splitting hairs. 

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15 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I don't think they can trade him while he's suspended and he gets back after the deadline.

I think they got him to spell Chubb.  I hope he's really good at it.  If he puts in big rips between the 20s that means more work for Chubb inside the five. 

 

Before the season I would have disagreed with you, but this is a fair point. Another dynamic back to improve the offense as a whole would in theory be a good thing. Rising tide etc.

Butttt, it's hard for me to have faith Cleveland coaching will use Hunt correctly. They might just run him up the gut like Chubb for all we know. They.....they aren't good.......at coaching.......

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The incompetence of the coaching staff is what worries me more than the actual inclusion of Hunt on the roster. The Browns have a struggling QB with a dwindling sense of confidence in himself, Hunt could help remedy that by being another safety valve and weapon to use in the short area with Chubb also on the field at the same time.. Helping force defenses to respect the run/pass mixup a bit more than they currently do... the issue is that I still don't think Kitchens and Co. are clever enough to use these guys in an effective coexisting manner on offense.

I think it's equally as likely, if not more so, that we watch Hunt be a player that's wasted on the sidelines each week rather than be someone that will assist in kick-starting the offense.. Obviously as a Chubb owner that would be an ideal scenario, however there is real-world strategy in having two effective RBs on the same team that does not involve Chubb seeing the ball any less than he currently is, it would very much require Baker to try and be more efficient on less attempts (ala Jimmy Garoppolo this year) which may not be a bad thing either.

Say all that to say this, clearly none of us know what is going to happen in a few weeks, we do however know that Chubb is a true homerun hitter and to sell him off based on speculation surrounded by 0 facts doesn't seem wise (unless of course you're able to get someone like Saquon/Zeke with a clear handcuff and/or a situation that is consistent week to week).

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17 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

If there's any truth to this?  MASSIVE uplift.

You are right, the addition of Trent Williams would be a massive uplift for Hunt.

Countdown to Hunt: T-Minus 3 Weeks

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