munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

 

Does sound like a bad scoring system.

Agree with the sentiment though....Chubb not catching any passes hurts.  And not getting a carry on first and goal at the one and having your QB sneak it instead also hurts.  

I guess I'm jsut old school but I'd have been pounding that ball with Chubb.  First of all, you've got to reward your RB that gets pounded all game by letting him hit paydirt on a play like that.  Second of all, I'd have wanted to get the monkey off my back from the bad taste left after last weeks game where they got stuffed down there.

And while Hunt isn't taking too much work, he also isn't helping things.  Hunt is getting almost all the third down work and we know he's plenty capable of running the ball well.

Chubb is still good but the arrow is definitely pointing down a bit as his ceiling isn't nearly what it was.

 

 

Reward your RB that gets pounded all game? It was in the first quarter when the QB sneak was called. I don't think Hunt hurts Chubb's production like people are acting. I can easily argue it helps. There were plays that Hunt made yesterday that only Hunt could make. These plays extend the drive and Chubb gets more carries! The dude had 27 carries yesterday! That was his season high and one short of his career high! Yesterday was his floor! We also know he can hit a homerun on any run. Also, he was facing a stout running defense yesterday. 

When you compare him to some of the recent production of players like Zeke and Barkley, Chubb is looking fantastic. 

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38 minutes ago, fullonchubb said:

Every single take you have is incredibly bad.

Just trying to bring some truth in this delusional thread...I’m a Chubb owner so I would love to be wrong here. At the end of the day, in fantasy, it’s all about the points

Edited by Dr. Whom

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3 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

We all have to agree since Kareem Hunt was reactivated Nick Chubb’s fantasy numbers are trending. Scoring settings in your leagues determine the trending. Just looking at the last two games since Hunt joined in 1/2 ppr Chubb has scored 22.3. The two games before those two he scored 20.4. Looking at his the whole season Chubb has had two breakout games, the rest were all double digits outcomes. He has had 4 games with over 15+ games out of 10. So, in my universe Chubb is Chubb nothing to worry about at all, others might think Hunt is prime to take over and push Chubb to the sidelines, but don’t believe that. Last night the guy who thinks Chubb is Mack told us all Hilliard is prime for garbage 4th quarter fantasy points. 
 

You must remember not all leagues are full ppr. We also have standard & half ppr. 

 

I think people also need to see he has faced two stout defenses the past two games AND he still had 49 touches!!!!

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Just trying to bring some truth in this delusional thread...I’m a Chubb owner so I would love to be wrong here. At the end of the day, in fantasy, it’s all about the points

Yes it is, and if we own a player we always want more. Too bad every RB didn’t give us CMC’s numbers 

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Let me pose my own pet theory.

Last year, Chubb started 9 games.

He had one outlier where he caught 6 passes (only 17 yards).  The rest he had no more than 3.

His value was supported almost exclusively by his work on the ground, which was voluminous (996 rushing yards and 8 TDs).

If you drafted Chubb this year expecting him to be a dual threat who would buttress his fantasy value through passing game work, Hunt or no Hunt, you were mistaken.  His game is ground game.

Of course, no one likes TD droughts for any player.  But there's reason for optimisim there IMO.

Over the past 4 weeks, he has played 3 of the top 7 defenses in terms of rushing TDS allowed on the year (NE - 5, Pitt - 6, Den - 6) and Buffalo not far behind at 9.  Upcoming games against the Ravens (9), Bengals (12) and Dolphins (8) yield more potential opportunities on that front.

Meanwhile, in spite of the TD drought, in .5 PPR he remained the 6th highest scoring RB going into this week.  He's the NFL's leading rusher today at 1,011 yards.  He just got 27 carries and helped him team win against a hot defense as an underdog last night.

You can get stuck on the lagging indicators of fantasy points scored as a result of this drought, or bemoan a lack of passing game presence that was honestly never there in the first place.

But I choose to bask in the guy who he already is on the ground, and the TD potential moving forward.  If you're in some sort of scoring system where catches are king and you drafted him thinking he was going to be Alvin Kamara, well, I have bad news for you.  If you drafted him expecting him to be a dynamic rusher who can lead your team in something closer to a standard scoring setting, I think the best may be yet to come.

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A touchdown would have been nice, but the take away for me from last night is that the team loves Nick Chubb, and there's no sign of them taking too many touches away. 92 yards on the ground is nothing to scoff at for sure.

Also, really enjoyed seeing how they're using both him and Hunt. The team is too stacked with weapons for them not to get creative.

Edited by dropshadows

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23 minutes ago, dropshadows said:

A touchdown would have been nice, but the take away for me from last night is that the team loves Nick Chubb, and there's no sign of them taking too many touches away. 92 yards on the ground is nothing to scoff at for sure.

Also, really enjoyed seeing how they're using both him and Hunt. The team is too stacked with weapons for them not to get creative.

Drafted as a bellcow though, that's the problem. Hunt is not eating into his touches, but this makes him basically AD, Mack, etc. Even Aaron Jones is in a better position than Chubb.

Edited by FitzMagic
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29 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Let me pose my own pet theory.

Last year, Chubb started 9 games.

He had one outlier where he caught 6 passes (only 17 yards).  The rest he had no more than 3.

His value was supported almost exclusively by his work on the ground, which was voluminous (996 rushing yards and 8 TDs).

If you drafted Chubb this year expecting him to be a dual threat who would buttress his fantasy value through passing game work, Hunt or no Hunt, you were mistaken.  His game is ground game.

Of course, no one likes TD droughts for any player.  But there's reason for optimisim there IMO.

Over the past 4 weeks, he has played 3 of the top 7 defenses in terms of rushing TDS allowed on the year (NE - 5, Pitt - 6, Den - 6) and Buffalo not far behind at 9.  Upcoming games against the Ravens (9), Bengals (12) and Dolphins (8) yield more potential opportunities on that front.

Meanwhile, in spite of the TD drought, in .5 PPR he remained the 6th highest scoring RB going into this week.  He's the NFL's leading rusher today at 1,011 yards.  He just got 27 carries and helped him team win against a hot defense as an underdog last night.

You can get stuck on the lagging indicators of fantasy points scored as a result of this drought, or bemoan a lack of passing game presence that was honestly never there in the first place.

But I choose to bask in the guy who he already is on the ground, and the TD potential moving forward.  If you're in some sort of scoring system where catches are king and you drafted him thinking he was going to be Alvin Kamara, well, I have bad news for you.  If you drafted him expecting him to be a dynamic rusher who can lead your team in something closer to a standard scoring setting, I think the best may be yet to come.


Good points. 
 

I will add the touches are nice and consistent, but it is the least creative running I have seen. Do a pitch or run from a spread formation or something to get him into some open space every once in a while. Everything is right up the gut in a run formation, the only question is if it’s left or right. Completely predictable when it’s going to be a run also. I guessed at probably a 70-80% rate just watching my tv, so you know a professional defense knows it’s coming. 
 

He’s basically a much more talented Sony Michel on a 💩 team that doesn’t score nearly as much. 
 

For those complaining about the QB sneak, I think they knew they couldn’t punch it in as their line gets no push, so that was their chance at a rushing TD. Sucks, but later when they tried him, he was met 2-3 yards in the backfield. 
 

Sucks, but TDs are going to be tough to come by unless he breaks a long one himself. 

Edited by nromn

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5 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

Drafted as a bellcow though, that's the problem. Hunt is not eating into his touches, but this makes him basically AD, Mack, etc. Even Aaron Jones is in a better position that Chubb.

 

I'm not sure I agree. Jones isn't going to score three TDs every week. You could also say the very same thing about Kamara with the emergence of of Murray. Chubb may not be a top five RB, but I still think is floor is in the Jacobs range (i.e. top 10). That's not something I'm going to complain about. 

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30 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Let me pose my own pet theory.

Last year, Chubb started 9 games.

He had one outlier where he caught 6 passes (only 17 yards).  The rest he had no more than 3.

His value was supported almost exclusively by his work on the ground, which was voluminous (996 rushing yards and 8 TDs).

If you drafted Chubb this year expecting him to be a dual threat who would buttress his fantasy value through passing game work, Hunt or no Hunt, you were mistaken.  His game is ground game.

Of course, no one likes TD droughts for any player.  But there's reason for optimisim there IMO.

Over the past 4 weeks, he has played 3 of the top 7 defenses in terms of rushing TDS allowed on the year (NE - 5, Pitt - 6, Den - 6) and Buffalo not far behind at 9.  Upcoming games against the Ravens (9), Bengals (12) and Dolphins (8) yield more potential opportunities on that front.

Meanwhile, in spite of the TD drought, in .5 PPR he remained the 6th highest scoring RB going into this week.  He's the NFL's leading rusher today at 1,011 yards.  He just got 27 carries and helped him team win against a hot defense as an underdog last night.

You can get stuck on the lagging indicators of fantasy points scored as a result of this drought, or bemoan a lack of passing game presence that was honestly never there in the first place.

But I choose to bask in the guy who he already is on the ground, and the TD potential moving forward.  If you're in some sort of scoring system where catches are king and you drafted him thinking he was going to be Alvin Kamara, well, I have bad news for you.  If you drafted him expecting him to be a dynamic rusher who can lead your team in something closer to a standard scoring setting, I think the best may be yet to come.

 

Agree with this and I'd probably slot him just behind someone like Fournette, and that's only because Fournette has somewhat reinvented himself as a pass catching back (as well) this season. I'm still taking Chubb over the Henry's, Gordon's, Gurley's, and Carson's of the world. 

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Just now, nromn said:

He’s basically a much more talented Sony Michel on a 💩 team that doesn’t score nearly as much. 

Probably a fair comparison.

Year after year, I see folks point chasing Patriots RBs and acting confused that James White doesn't get 1 yard TD carries or Benjarvus Green-Ellis didn't get catches.

That's never been their role.  The Patriots see "pass catching back" and "pure RB" as two different positions.

That's probably who you have to accept who Chubb is - an extremely talented "pure RB."  Who, unlike say Michel, won't randomly get phased out for Brandon Bolden, because Chubb is more talented and essential to their game plan, and Kitchens isn't BB.

Which is extremely valuable in some scoring settings and a liability in others.

Stretches like this where he plays good front sevens for a month that don't yield many rushing TDs are probably going to be a drag.  However he always has a voluminous role, week in, week out, on the ground.  And he's gonna cross the pylons again this season with that kind of role and the defenses he is facing.  

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9 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

Even Aaron Jones is in a better position than Chubb.

I disagree. To that point, and to explain why I disagree, let me ask you which player you'd rather have.

 

Player A: 589 yards, 11td's, 59% snap count

Player B: 1011 yards, 6td's, 74% snap count

 

Without assigning names, most people would take B. Why? I'd rather have a back that bulks yards and touches, than one who is more TD dependent. Sure, Jones gets thrown to more, but I'd rather be waiting on TD's to come than hoping the snap count comes. 

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As an owner, trying to be objective.

Yes- volume is good. It was a tough run d but he was basically Chris Carson last night. The biggest issue two weeks in a row was stuffed on the goal line numerous times and the coaching staff not trusting the run game anymore, so they sneak it or do fades or whatever. That's terrible.

Also hunt was in on the goal line on a play.

So if you're talking about an early down grinder with reduced red zone potential, his PPG projections could easily get cut in half. Come on guys- this Rosy BS is rah rah and I'm greatly concerned that it's td or bust. Chubb owners stand no chance against the cook and cmc owners in the playoffs

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2 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Agree with this and I'd probably slot him just behind someone like Fournette, and that's only because Fournette has somewhat reinvented himself as a pass catching back (as well) this season. I'm still taking Chubb over the Henry's, Gordon's, Gurley's, and Carson's of the world. 

Fournette is a really talented dude as well.

I wonder about what the offense looks like with Foles now and his injury status is always a potential issue.  Chubb had his knee issues at UGA so that could always come up again too, but Fournette's seem more the chronic type.  Both are healthy now though, and I don't really want to play against either.

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1 minute ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

The biggest issue two weeks in a row was stuffed on the goal line numerous times and the coaching staff not trusting the run game anymore, so they sneak it or do fades or whatever. That's terrible.

You need to develop some sort of goal line passing game in order to free up more opportunities for him in the future.

The line has been bad and nobody has been concerned with Mayfield.

Guess we'll just see.  I suspect the TDs are coming.  If you don't, that's fine.

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8 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

I disagree. To that point, and to explain why I disagree, let me ask you which player you'd rather have.

 

Player A: 589 yards, 11td's, 59% snap count

Player B: 1011 yards, 6td's, 74% snap count

 

Without assigning names, most people would take B. Why? I'd rather have a back that bulks yards and touches, than one who is more TD dependent. Sure, Jones gets thrown to more, but I'd rather be waiting on TD's to come than hoping the snap count comes. 

I mean, in standard I know which one, but the PPR stats matter in my argument.

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29 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Let me pose my own pet theory.

Last year, Chubb started 9 games.

He had one outlier where he caught 6 passes (only 17 yards).  The rest he had no more than 3.

His value was supported almost exclusively by his work on the ground, which was voluminous (996 rushing yards and 8 TDs).

If you drafted Chubb this year expecting him to be a dual threat who would buttress his fantasy value through passing game work, Hunt or no Hunt, you were mistaken.  His game is ground game.

Of course, no one likes TD droughts for any player.  But there's reason for optimisim there IMO.

Over the past 4 weeks, he has played 3 of the top 7 defenses in terms of rushing TDS allowed on the year (NE - 5, Pitt - 6, Den - 6) and Buffalo not far behind at 9.  Upcoming games against the Ravens (9), Bengals (12) and Dolphins (8) yield more potential opportunities on that front.

Meanwhile, in spite of the TD drought, in .5 PPR he remained the 6th highest scoring RB going into this week.  He's the NFL's leading rusher today at 1,011 yards.  He just got 27 carries and helped him team win against a hot defense as an underdog last night.

You can get stuck on the lagging indicators of fantasy points scored as a result of this drought, or bemoan a lack of passing game presence that was honestly never there in the first place.

But I choose to bask in the guy who he already is on the ground, and the TD potential moving forward.  If you're in some sort of scoring system where catches are king and you drafted him thinking he was going to be Alvin Kamara, well, I have bad news for you.  If you drafted him expecting him to be a dynamic rusher who can lead your team in something closer to a standard scoring setting, I think the best may be yet to come.

 

 

I think you are rationalizing your position on Chubb instead of accepting the legitimate concerns of the fantasy production.

Start of the season  it was anticipated that he would get a couple of more targets a  game to lift his floor and  being on a multi-talented pass catching team he would see increased yardage and end zone opportunities as the primary rb which is why he was drafted at his ADP.  His ADP would have been higher without the risk of Hunt returning. 

instead the reality is the offense is not dynamic and the passing game is almost non existent and the entire offense struggles in the redzone and doesnt score many td's.  Alot of it can be placed at the feet of the non creative play calling of the HC and the struggles of the QB.

Citing his number of carries is just an indicator of opportunity but the fact is the anticipated fantasy production is not matching the touches for example kalen bellage had 24 touches in a workhorse role but the fantasy output is miserable.

Also Hunt is a real threat going forward, not in terms of supplanting Chubb but in terms of a 1st year HC experimenting with the allocation of high quality touches between the 2 rb's in given  game situations.

So i understand your view on Chubb being a talented workhorse rb however from a fantasy perspective he is not meeting the expectations given his draft expectations.

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3 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

I mean, in standard I know which one, but the PPR stats matter in my argument.

but do they matter enough to discount being TD dependent vs a 1000yd rusher thru 11 weeks? IMO, much easier to hope for TD's from a 1000yd rusher than the other way around. In full disclosure, I own both Jones and Chubb.

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12 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

As an owner, trying to be objective.

Yes- volume is good. It was a tough run d but he was basically Chris Carson last night. The biggest issue two weeks in a row was stuffed on the goal line numerous times and the coaching staff not trusting the run game anymore, so they sneak it or do fades or whatever. That's terrible.

Also hunt was in on the goal line on a play.

So if you're talking about an early down grinder with reduced red zone potential, his PPG projections could easily get cut in half. Come on guys- this Rosy BS is rah rah and I'm greatly concerned that it's td or bust. Chubb owners stand no chance against the cook and cmc owners in the playoffs

Exactly...the last sentence sums up my reaction to owning Chubb perfectly 

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1 minute ago, MSkibisky said:

but do they matter enough to discount being TD dependent vs a 1000yd rusher thru 11 weeks? IMO, much easier to hope for TD's from a 1000yd rusher than the other way around. In full disclosure, I own both Jones and Chubb.

I mean this is true but outside of Adams, nobody is really scoring TDs except Jones and Williams. Jones may be TD dependent, but it isn't like his TDs will just dry up. Because at the end of the day he's getting the rock in the redzone. I saw yesterday Chubb pretty much being a decoy in the redzone.

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Just now, FitzMagic said:

I mean this is true but outside of Adams, nobody is really scoring TDs except Jones and Williams. Jones may be TD dependent, but it isn't like his TDs will just dry up. Because at the end of the day he's getting the rock in the redzone. I saw yesterday Chubb pretty much being a decoy in the redzone.

Agreed...jones is light years ahead of Chubb in ppr scoring ros

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1 minute ago, FitzMagic said:

I mean this is true but outside of Adams, nobody is really scoring TDs except Jones and Williams. Jones may be TD dependent, but it isn't like his TDs will just dry up. Because at the end of the day he's getting the rock in the redzone. I saw yesterday Chubb pretty much being a decoy in the redzone.

I think this is the mindset of looking at a single defense who has repeatedly stuffed red zone runs. You guys need to look at the bigger picture. ROS schedule/snap count/touches. These will add up to points. They just will. How do I know, because they already have.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Whom said:

Agreed...jones is light years ahead of Chubb in ppr scoring ros

have you seen the Browns schedule coming up? Dolphins, Bengals x2, Cards... Packers schedule isn't awful either but Chubb has some easy Sundays coming up. 

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let's make sure the groin is OK before we toss either dirt or platitudes.

that has me most concerned, obviously 🤷‍♂️

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3 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

have you seen the Browns schedule coming up? Dolphins, Bengals x2, Cards... Packers schedule isn't awful either but Chubb has some easy Sundays coming up. 

If he is 100%, then there should be no more excuses in this thread. Hopefully his tweaked groin is really minor

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