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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

If he is 100%, then there should be no more excuses in this thread. Hopefully his tweaked groin is really minor

I'm not excusing anything. But people are never happy. The guy rushes for 1000 years by week 11 and still doesn't get the RB1 respect he deserves. TD's will come.. why? - The production is there. 

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Just now, MSkibisky said:

I'm not excusing anything. But people are never happy. The guy rushes for 1000 years by week 11 and still doesn't get the RB1 respect he deserves. TD's will come.. why? - The production is there. 

 

Again I love Chubb and I own him, but come on, two weeks of concerning data that coincided with hunts return. We're all gonna hope and pray Chubb walks into the end zone the limited times the browns are there. If not- his 16 ppg average is gonna go Down to 10

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2 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Again I love Chubb and I own him, but come on, two weeks of concerning data that coincided with hunts return. We're all gonna hope and pray Chubb walks into the end zone the limited times the browns are there. If not- his 16 ppg average is gonna go Down to 10

Based on ..what? With Hunt as a lead blocker, like I previously said, Chubb ran for almost 100 years on only 7 touches. Seems like that helps to me, no? Chubb was getting around 1 out of every five snaps taken from him ANYWAY, that 1 is just a different name now. That's what people fail to realize. As far as the past 2 weeks, look at the defenses he played against. AND HE STILL ran for almost 100 yards yesterday, and HE DID against a tough Buffalo D. What do you think he will do vs. the fins? Cardinals? Bengals? Color me not concerned with those matchups after posting 200 yards vs the Bills and Steelers, lol.

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2 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

This offense gets into the redzone 33% less than ADP and draft expectations...it just feels like Matt breida now. Same role and td potential

 

Without targets and  td's Chubb = Derrick Henry except henry is in an offense designed to feature him whereas Chubb is in an offense designed to feature Baker+OBJ+Landry.

The Titans solved their QB problem and won their last 4 games. The Browns still trying to figure out their play calling

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Some people are delusional and never happy. Correlation doesn't equal causation. Like I said earlier, he's faced to stout defenses and received 49 touches with Kareem Hunt in the lineup. This is fantasy football, you have to ride the roller coaster rides and people are so quick to jump off the ride when it's not going the way they like it for a few games. The dude is stud no matter what. 

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15 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Without targets and  td's Chubb = Derrick Henry except henry is in an offense designed to feature him whereas Chubb is in an offense designed to feature Baker+OBJ+Landry.

The Titans solved their QB problem and won their last 4 games. The Browns still trying to figure out their play calling

lolwut??? 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Whom said:

.I’m a Chubb owner so I would love to be wrong here.

You've done nothing but bash the guy and say he's barely and rb3/flex when he is 15th in fantasy points per game among running backs in .5PPR.  People here may be too hype on him but you're just trying to piss people off. It's why you are by far the person who has commented in this thread the most. 

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14 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

lolwut??? 

To be fair, in my league Henry has more points than Chubb. Full point PPR. not sure about other scoring systems though. 

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2 minutes ago, fullonchubb said:

You've done nothing but bash the guy and say he's barely and rb3/flex when he is 15th in fantasy points per game among running backs in .5PPR.  People here may be too hype on him but you're just trying to piss people off. It's why you are by far the person who has commented in this thread the most. 

9.2 points in full ppr is rb3 and flex numbers...and this is with him getting almost 30 touches. Not trying to piss anyone off...those are the numbers. Any back in the nfl getting 27 touches can muster 3.4 yards a carry against Pittsburgh

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52 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I think you are rationalizing your position on Chubb instead of accepting the legitimate concerns of the fantasy production.

Start of the season  it was anticipated that he would get a couple of more targets a  game to lift his floor and  being on a multi-talented pass catching team he would see increased yardage and end zone opportunities as the primary rb which is why he was drafted at his ADP.  His ADP would have been higher without the risk of Hunt returning. 

instead the reality is the offense is not dynamic and the passing game is almost non existent and the entire offense struggles in the redzone and doesnt score many td's.  Alot of it can be placed at the feet of the non creative play calling of the HC and the struggles of the QB.

Citing his number of carries is just an indicator of opportunity but the fact is the anticipated fantasy production is not matching the touches for example kalen bellage had 24 touches in a workhorse role but the fantasy output is miserable.

Also Hunt is a real threat going forward, not in terms of supplanting Chubb but in terms of a 1st year HC experimenting with the allocation of high quality touches between the 2 rb's in given  game situations.

So i understand your view on Chubb being a talented workhorse rb however from a fantasy perspective he is not meeting the expectations given his draft expectations.

I am happy to admit my own bias, I love the guy.

It's certainly your prerogative to call it rationalization or not meeting some subjective level of expectation.  But from my vantage point, he's scored more points than all but five RBs in my league thus far going into this week and although last night was nothing to write home about, there's reason for TD optimism moving forward as I pointed out.

I can't speak for others who had subjective expectations on his involvement catching passes and how that impacts his value in their scoring systems, other than to say he hadn't been that back last year.

If you play in a scoring system where passing TDs are worth significantly more than rushing TDs, and you draft a QB who typically scores more with his legs in anticipation that he is going to do something he hasn't done before in the passing game, and then want others to share your outlook when it doesn't happen but their scoring systems don't swing that way, I would say that's on you, just as I would in this scenario.

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4 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

lolwut??? 

 

DH is the #5 rb in fantasy and Chubb is #6.

Henry avgs about 19 carries a game is TD dependent with 8 rushing td's in 10 games and avg about 2 targets  and 1 catch per game, 

So i think i am pretty spot on with with the assessment Chubb = DH without his targets and td's,

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4 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

To be fair, in my league Henry has more points than Chubb. Full point PPR. not sure about other scoring systems though. 

 

2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

DH is the #5 rb in fantasy and Chubb is #6.

Henry avgs about 19 carries a game is TD dependent with 8 rushing td's in 10 games and avg about 2 targets  and 1 catch per game, 

So i think i am pretty spot on with with the assessment Chubb = DH without his targets and td's,

so by that logic, Devonta Freeman is better than Barkley, right?. He has more points scored though!

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

DH is the #5 rb in fantasy and Chubb is #6.

Henry avgs about 19 carries a game is TD dependent with 8 rushing td's in 10 games and avg about 2 targets  and 1 catch per game, 

So i think i am pretty spot on with with the assessment Chubb = DH without his targets and td's,

 

It took one amazing week for DH to catch up, does that make DH better or equal than Chubb when DH was pedestrian/slightly above average for the first 8 weeks? I don't know.

But as a GM who traded DH for Chubb right before his 200/2 outbreak, I sure am p'ed off.

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His goal line production has been poor. His Oline has been dominated all year long.  Add Hunt, plus a groin injury and his stock moving forward has gone down.  His production over the last 11 weeks is meaningless.  It is about what happens with him to close out the season. 

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1 minute ago, MSkibisky said:

 

so by that logic, Devonta Freeman is better than Barkley, right?. He has more points scored though!

If he had more points in the same amount of games, sure. Barkley hasn't played the same amount of games. It's like saying Reek Hill is a WR3 just because he hasn't played enough games. Technically he is based on total stats, but by average, he's a WR1. Chubb is an RB1 and so is Henry. This year, Henry has been better than Chubb. Thus, this year Henry is better than Chubb as it stands.

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2 minutes ago, Swinger said:

His goal line production has been poor. His Oline has been dominated all year long.  Add Hunt, plus a groin injury and his stock moving forward has gone down.  His production over the last 11 weeks is meaningless.  It is about what happens with him to close out the season. 

Thank you. Chubb is trending in all the wrong directions right now, don’t get why that’s so hard to see.

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2 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

 

so by that logic, Devonta Freeman. . . . is better than . . . .Barkley, right?. He has more points scored though!

 

And this is why you will struggle in fantasy you have a bias that limits your ability to process something different than what your bias.

I never claimed one player was better than the other nor was that the point. The point was for fantasy purposes they will profile about the same because they will both be rush volume and TD dependent. The reality of the browns struggling offense+ utilization of Hunt affects the way Chubb was profiled early season for fantasy production. There has been a shift in the utilization and expectations of Chubb and you should adjust accordingly

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15 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

 

so by that logic, Devonta Freeman is better than Barkley, right?. He has more points scored though!

That logic is a little different when a player has missed games due to injury. You’re better than that. 

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Hunt is getting all the catches and was in at the goal line.  If the Browns wanted someone for a "Carlos Hyde" role they should've kept Carlos Hyde for peanuts rather than investing major draft capital into Chubb.

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9 minutes ago, mtx said:

 

It took one amazing week for DH to catch up, does that make DH better or equal than Chubb when DH was pedestrian/slightly above average for the first 8 weeks? I don't know.

But as a GM who traded DH for Chubb right before his 200/2 outbreak, I sure am p'ed off.

 

i am looking at them similarly not better or worse. Currently i have them both even but i'm leaning Chubb simply because of the soft playoff schedule even though I think Henry is on a better performing team. The Browns are a weekly puzzle in terms of expectations, their high rate of failure in redzone conversions is clearly a coaching issue. 

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Well, we certainly aren't benching him. A loss to receptions from Hunt is discouraging, but still, 92 yards on the ground carry after carry, I like it.

Dolphins, Steelers, then Bengals, Cardinals in the playoffs... The only thing I'm adjusting is maybe a slight decline in confidence.

Edited by dropshadows

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11 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I think Henry is on a better performing team. 

The past two weeks the Browns have beaten some pretty good defensive clubs that were in that "if the playoffs started today" groups.

If 4 games of no TDs or two games with Hunt is fair play for sample size in analysis, than surely we can acknowledge that this team is also playing better, no?

The Titans are not without their flaws either. It's great that they beat KC in Mahomes first game back, and Tannehill has been playing well, but he has a long history of just being ok, the secondary had issues before and now they lost Malcom Butler, etc.

I think given the past two weeks they seem to be on equal footing.

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