munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Chubb, assuming he’s is healthy, because of schedule and draft capital. But Ronald jones will probably outscored him because he. An catch in full ppr 

If you think Ronald Jones will outscore him then you should take him.  Or is it that Chubb is better so he has the safer floor?  I don't feel the need to argue with you anymore since i feel I've exposed the fact that you can't gauge skill very well, but give me one more question.  Who would you take over Nick Chubb? Since you wouldn't take Ronald Jones.

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6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

This thread is a great litmus test on so many subjective observations on the game.

Here we have a guy who plays for what everyone has considered to be a disappointing outfit, heavily involved in the game plan and is running the ball for more yardage per game than anyone not named Christian McCaffrey.

Yet because of a variety of mitigating circumstances, their own personal expectations on his involvement in the passing game, a string of four games against good defenses that haven't allowed him to score, his backup, a guy who has touched the ball 23 times to his 47 the two games the backup has played in(yes, yes, more catches for the PPR crowd), but arrived with much fanfare and was held in a variety of leagues in spite of a half season suspension, it's horrendously biased to celebrate that the guy is waking up this morning as the NFL's leading rusher, and has had those 47 touches and produced great yardage totals against two good defenses, or have any optimism that they're playing the Bengals, Dolphins, Cardinals, and Ravens (a team he complied 165 yards and 3 TDs against earlier in the year) in 4 of the next five games.

 

 

 I think this thread is more of an indication of:

 

1. People argue against fantasy production with real world production 

2. People look backwards vs looking forwards in player valuation

3. Draft day expectations are not present day fantasy performance

4. Fantasy focused players do not care about fanboy enthusiasm

5. People forget that the standard scoring system and default for thread discussions is PPR unless you specify differently. 

6. People forget this is a FANTASY FOOTBALL forum not a regular fan site.

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6 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

Lol, I don't take him seriously - he gets his injury reports from Joe Buck.

Aka rotoworld game day thread

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

2. People look backwards vs looking forwards in player valuation

You see one thing others might see it differently. Since, Chubb is the bell cow the TDs are coming. 
One more thing. Nobody knows what is going to happen that Chubb’s fantasy valuation going forward. 

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10 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

 I think this thread is more of an indication of:

 

1. People argue against fantasy production with real world production 

2. People look backwards vs looking forwards in player valuation

3. Draft day expectations are not present day fantasy performance

4. Fantasy focused players do not care about fanboy enthusiasm

5. People forget that the standard scoring system and default for thread discussions is PPR unless you specify differently. 

6. People forget this is a FANTASY FOOTBALL forum not a regular fan site.

1. He's the RB6 going into this week.  He was the 6th drafted RB in my league.  Production in all venues has been in accordance with my expectations.  I don't love 9.2, but that's a higher lower water mark than McCaffrey in my league (6.1 against TB).

2.) No comment on the schedule moving forward, or any facts I mentioned, just general theory not necessarily applicable to Chubb, noted.

3.)  See 1

4.) I like watching football and rooting for my guys beyond looking at fantasy points scored, sue me.  I'm 8-2 so it seems to be working.

5.) This is not the correct venue for league scoring settings, there's a thread for that.  But I can't speak to your scoring settings, if you like them, wonderful.  There are plenty of people who don't play full PPR, I'm one of them.

6.) I don't really understand how that's a either/or proposition.  To me you can do both.  But do you baby.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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With all of this talk about Chubb’s groin injury, can anyone provide any source on how severe it is?  Or, more importantly, whether it actually exists?  TIA

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

You can't steal what isnt there 😂

Now your just trolling. 2 opportunities at the goal line this week and 2 last week. 

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I'm not really buying the take the ball out of Baker's hand argument. He rushed 27 times last night. Chubb hasn't rushed for less than 16 attempts and has rushed 20 times at least 7/10 games. Its more about this line IMO and game script. Last night us owners got unlucky with the QB sneak on the one and then the throw to Landry on another short play. 92 yards against that Steelers defense is awesome it's just unlucky how the game turned out. As for Hunt, it seems like they are comfortable involving them both so I am not too concerned. Fortunately I have them both though.

 

Let's not forget the juicy playoff schedule. 

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Interesting no one's mentioned the fantasy implications of the suspensions on Garrett and the injury Brunett suffered. The Browns are a completely different team now. Without their best defensive player, their starting safety (to go along with a litany of other injuries), and their propensity to get flags, this is not a team that was and should have been more of a run-first, defensive minded unit. That to go along with their complete inability to run in the RZ and Hunt's continued involvement in the offense spells trouble.

 

The schedule is can be viewed as a saving grace. But, unlike Rudolph, Ryan Fitzpatrick is an actual NFL QB and the AZ/BAL matchups will be a shootout. Who knows what happens in Pittsburgh? In my eyes, Chubb is a very safe RB2 with a low ceiling (10is - 15ish pts in half PPR). 

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6 minutes ago, MKO3090 said:

In my eyes, Chubb is a very safe RB2 with a low ceiling (10is - 15ish pts in half PPR). 

I think you meant to say high floor*. Low ceiling would mean you think 10-15 points is the max.

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1 minute ago, MKO3090 said:

Interesting no one's mentioned the fantasy implications of the suspensions on Garrett and the injury Brunett suffered. The Browns are a completely different team now. Without their best defensive player, their starting safety (to go along with a litany of other injuries), and their propensity to get flags, this is not a team that was and should have been more of a run-first, defensive minded unit. That to go along with their complete inability to run in the RZ and Hunt's continued involvement in the offense spells trouble.

 

The schedule is can be viewed as a saving grace. But, unlike Rudolph, Ryan Fitzpatrick is an actual NFL QB and the AZ/BAL matchups will be a shootout. Who knows what happens in Pittsburgh? In my eyes, Chubb is a very safe RB2 with a low ceiling (10is - 15ish pts in half PPR). 

There hasn't been a whole lot of evidence that game script is directly correlated to Chubb's individual success in fantasy thus far this season.

I'm sure any number of folks would be happy here to tell you about how these last two games they won, Chubb had his lowest fantasy scoring game of the year and a ho hum fantasy effort (though a great IRL effort) against Buffalo.

The blow up spots, so to speak, were mainly against Baltimore, a game where they allowed 25 but won thanks to his 3 TDs, and Seattle, a game where they gave up 32 and lost and he had 122 and 2 TDs.

They've been behind significantly against SF and NE and they kept feeding him carries to get to decent numbers.  I suppose you could say it's possible now that they just play hurry up throwing the ball to Hunt, but that's a theory and not yet a practice.

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https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/video/nick-chubb-postgame-interview-vs-steelers

 

No love lost between Chubb and Hunt, no need for all the squabbling between the owners.  Chubb is a great player and so is Hunt, and even though it seemed like this game Hunt was taking away opportunities, I do think they help each other. Hunt is taking away the same opportunities Hilliard was taking away anyways, having Hunt get more first downs gives Chubb MORE opportunities, not less.

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[Posts removed.  Contrary to points stated in now-deleted posts: regardless of what default settings popular fantasy platforms may provide, there is no "default" format for these forums.  People play in different formats, and that's fine.  It's always helpful (and only takes a few keystrokes) to say "in non-PPR" or "in half PPR" or whatever if you're making a format-specific statement.  This is the Nick Chubb thread, and not a place to hash out disagreements about which format is best, so let's get back on topic.]

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Chubb is completely fine. The Browns realized that sticking with the run and winning time of possession is the best chance they have to win, doesn’t matter who the opponent is. And now that their defense will be awful without Garrett, controlling the clock means so much more now. I see a floor of 20 carries for Chubb going forward, and Hunt’s probably looking at 15-20 touches but half through carries and the other half through targets. 

Both guys are going to produce here. Chubb is still an RB1 and Hunt has RB2 potential assuming he can do damage with the handful of carries he’s going to get on top of the heavy targets going forward. 

Edited by Klientel
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I never thought I'd see the day that people complain when a RB gets 27 carries in a game. 

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10 minutes ago, munde53 said:

I never thought I'd see the day that people complain when a RB gets 27 carries in a game. 

Perfection is the enemy of the good.

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Chubb - 19 games, 393 carries, 2,007 yards, 5.1 YPC

Dickerson - 18 games, 438 carries, 2,048 yards, 4.7 YPC

 

Image result for the more you know gif

Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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3 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

Chubb - 19 games, 393 carries, 2,007 yards, 5.1 YPC

Dickerson - 18 games, 438 carries, 2,048 yards, 4.7 YPC

 

Image result for the more you know gif

Eric Dickerson, weekly fringe RB3/Flex play.

Sure setting the record for most rush yards in a season and being a first ballot Hall of Famer is good...but not nearly enough 6 catch for 23 yard games for my tastes.  Give me Dave Meggett.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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11 hours ago, munde53 said:

I never thought I'd see the day that people complain when a RB gets 27 carries in a game. 

Me either. There was so many more 

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1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

Me either. There was so many more 

Again this is what full PPR has done. Turned irreverent RBs like James white into guys that get ten points from 7 catches for 30 yards. So then when you get a guy like Chubb who is a real life star and doing great on the football field but it’s not translating to a lot of points in full PPR people complain. No offense to anyone that plays Full PPR but their perception of players in completely cloudy. They don’t even want RBs to run anymore all they care about is catches. 

Edited by StevenSC400
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a tale of two RB seasons, through their first 10 games:

 

player A:

205/1108/5.4 ypc/6 TDs, 29/155/0 - 234 touches, 1263 yds, 6 TDs ... 5.39 per touch. 

192 ppr points, 19.2 avg

 

player B:

201/1011/5.0 ypc/6 TDs, 27/166/0 - 228 touches, 1177 yds, 6 TDs ... 5.16 per touch. 

180 ppr points, 18.0 avg

 

 

player A with 86 more total yds, on 6 more touches ... same amount of TDs, roughly ONE ppg avg better than player B - are those numbers so widly disparate?

 

🤔

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1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

a tale of two RB seasons, through their first 10 games:

 

player A:

205/1108/5.4 ypc/6 TDs, 29/155/0 - 234 touches, 1263 yds, 6 TDs ... 5.39 per touch. 

192 ppr points, 19.2 avg

 

player B:

201/1011/5.0 ypc/6 TDs, 27/166/0 - 228 touches, 1177 yds, 6 TDs ... 5.16 per touch. 

180 ppr points, 18.0 avg

 

 

player A with 86 more total yds, on 6 more touches ... same amount of TDs, roughly ONE ppg avg better than player B - are those numbers so widly disparate?

 

🤔

I'm stumped.

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41 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm stumped.

 

ok ... but the numbers posted for each rb thru 10 games - not too far apart, amirite? 

🤷‍♂️

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Just now, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

ok ... but the numbers posted for each rb thru 10 games - not too far apart, amirite? 

🤷‍♂️

I'd think you'd be hard pressed to say a point a game would be a huge swing, sure.

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