Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

[jumper 462]

17 hours ago, kdko said:

 

Lol, gotta love the 'if you take away these big runs his numbers would be lower' guys.  We don't penalize players for making big plays.

It's sometimes useful for context.  Plenty of fantasy managers have been burned by not considering whether a short burst of outperformance caused a significant skew in their overall season numbers.  For example, in 2013 plenty of folks drafted Doug Martin high (sometimes at 1.02) despite warnings about his numbers being highly skewed by a single game rushing performance of 25/251/4.  Guys who didn't consider how the rest of his season body of work was relatively blah and drafted him high anyway got crushed that year.  Chubb *could* have the same thing happen.  Not saying it *will* happen but you should consider alternate ways of valuing players including "does my ranking of this player significantly depend on plays that might be outliers?"

[dashoe 6,462]

10 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I’ll just post this article here, as I strongly believe the fate of the world hinges on resolving this “stud/stud-esque” conflict:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-browns-nick-chubb-on-pace-for-historic-rookie-campaign

devaster already posted the article come on dude if you are going to weigh in you have to follow the COMPLETE timeline. . 

 

On a serious note it's simply opinion and it's best to engage the opinion as a different view rather than try to be "right" in winning an opinion based debate 

 

[BMcP 8,109]

Haha!  I think that’s eminently reasonable - we all get to have an opinion.

At the risk of veering off-topic, I’d be interested to hear people’s thoughts on his expected usage - and whether a full off-season of adapting to a Kitchens offense will improve his performance even further.

[dashoe 6,462]

1 minute ago, jumper said:

It's sometimes useful for context.  Plenty of fantasy managers have been burned by not considering whether a short burst of outperformance caused a significant skew in their overall season numbers.  For example, in 2013 plenty of folks drafted Doug Martin high (sometimes at 1.02) despite warnings about his numbers being highly skewed by a single game rushing performance of 25/251/4.  Guys who didn't consider how the rest of his season body of work was relatively blah and drafted him high anyway got crushed that year.  Chubb *could* have the same thing happen.  Not saying it *will* happen but you should consider alternate ways of valuing players including "does my ranking of this player significantly depend on plays that might be outliers?"

Julio is another player who's  big game numbers can skew his average. I recall one season he put up over 50pts but played multiple games as a decoy  and put up single digits due to some injury but  when u average it out he looked like a season long stud

[devaster 4,349]

1 minute ago, BMcP said:

Haha!  I think that’s eminently reasonable - we all get to have an opinion.

At the risk of veering off-topic, I’d be interested to hear people’s thoughts on his expected usage - and whether a full off-season of adapting to a Kitchens offense will improve his performance even further.

I love his outlook, but Hunt muddies the waters. Really need more information on Hunt's situation. Length of suspension and preseason usage.

[dashoe 6,462]

1 minute ago, BMcP said:

Haha!  I think that’s eminently reasonable - we all get to have an opinion.

At the risk of veering off-topic, I’d be interested to hear people’s thoughts on his expected usage - and whether a full off-season of adapting to a Kitchens offense will improve his performance even further.

 

If you could tell me what a Kitchens offense looks like  or even his offensive philosophy that would be helpful.

Kitchens was never a HC or OC prior to taking the interim OC position and even then he kept Haleys offense in place. So the numbers people are using to forecast currently are based on a Haley offense.

So i'm wary of all Browns position players until we see something this summer.

[BMcP 8,109]

6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

If you could tell me what a Kitchens offense looks like  or even his offensive philosophy that would be helpful.

Kitchens was never a HC or OC prior to taking the interim OC position and even then he kept Haleys offense in place. So the numbers people are using to forecast currently are based on a Haley offense.

So i'm wary of all Browns position players until we see something this summer.

I do remember your mentioning that now earlier - and I agree they retained the basic Haley framework.  But Kitchens employed a variety of new concepts to transition to a more multiple approach, often incorporating two or even three backs onto the field simultaneously to introduce confusion.  When I first heard of the Hunt signing, my reaction was that that was in part influenced by Kitchens’ desire to get multiple backs involved on a regular basis.

This is one of the best reads I’ve come across on the subject of differences that Kitchens introduced upon taking over:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2018/11/27/the-all-22-how-new-offensive-coordinator-freddie-kitchens-became-the-browns-mvp/amp/

Edited February 21, 2019 by BMcP

[jumper 462]

14 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Julio is another player who's  big game numbers can skew his average. I recall one season he put up over 50pts but played multiple games as a decoy  and put up single digits due to some injury but  when u average it out he looked like a season long stud

Or Derick Henry's 17/238/4 game v. JAX last year which represents a full quarter of his season long stats.  Or the Nick Foles 7 TD game against the Raiders a while back.  The point isn't to say Chubb is good or bad, but saying "we don't penalize for big plays" can't be taken as gospel never to be questioned.  The Chubb 63 and 92 yard TD runs do skew his numbers but what's more important is to look at the season as a whole and in 2018 that looked good for him (but beware that BAL seems to definitely have his number). 

[dashoe 6,462]

33 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I do remember your mentioning that now earlier - and I agree they retained the basic Haley framework.  But Kitchens employed a variety of new concepts to transition to a more multiple approach, often incorporating two or even three backs onto the field simultaneously to introduce confusion.  When I first heard of the Hunt signing, my reaction was that that was in part influenced by Kitchens’ desire to get multiple backs involved on a regular basis.

This is one of the best reads I’ve come across on the subject of differences that Kitchens introduced upon taking over:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2018/11/27/the-all-22-how-new-offensive-coordinator-freddie-kitchens-became-the-browns-mvp/amp/

 

The glaring hole in this offense is the pass catchers:

landry-higgins-perriman-callaway

 

No strong field stretcher or deep ball threat.  Landry severely underperformed  vs his hard knocks expectations. Callaway  had drop issues,/couldnt finish his routes/not a strong downfield blocker. Higgins always injured

They collectively lead the league in drops and Perriman literally came in off the street and became bakers reliable deep threat. Njoku was  warm and cold

So if they keep this group of pass catchers you have to think with the addition of hunt and keeping Duke, you are going to see more of that run heavy  ball control game that Dorsey claimed he wanted when he was first hired but Haley +Tyrod had a problem delivering on. 

it's all speculation until we get to preseason or the beat reporters tell us what they are seeing in practice.

 

Also the new OC comes from an Air Raid scheme  in Tampa which we saw how potent it can be with the right personnl, so how does that stack with kitchens who will probably call the plays ?

https://www.cleveland.com/expo/sports/g66l-2019/02/5a2bc6ae463829/how-will-todd-monkens-air-raid-concepts-mesh-with-freddie-kitchens-monday-browns-takeaways.html

Edited February 21, 2019 by dashoe

[dashoe 6,462]

“Balance is multiple skill players touching the football,” he said on Thursday. “To me, it is not always just run-pass. It is, do you have enough skill players where they can touch the football? Last year at Tampa, we almost had six guys -- if O.J. (Howard) doesn’t get hurt -- with 700-plus yards from the line of scrimmage. That, to me, is balance.”

So is an offense where a running back touches the ball 23 times and everyone else really balanced? The idea here is that it's not.

This plays into a strength of Mayfield’s. If you’re on the field and you’re open, he’s not afraid to throw you the ball. It’s part of why Rashard Higgins thrived with Mayfield, taking advantage of those opportunities when the ball came his way.

It’s also a case for continued investment in playmakers at receiver and tight end.

 

So if you read the tea leaves from Monken chubb is not going to be a high volume rb but he could be a high TD scoring rb. But once again for me it goes back to the weak pass catchers on the Browns. I don't see a pass heavy Air Raid scheme working with that group and it's Kitchens not Monken calling the plays so again we will all be speculating on what this offense will look like in the Fall and how chubb will fit

[K197040 2,412]

19 hours ago, kdko said:

 

Lol, gotta love the 'if you take away these big runs his numbers would be lower' guys.  We don't penalize players for making big plays.

 

When three runs add around a full yard per carry and 3 TD, I think it's important to know.  

[dashoe 6,462]

Sounds more like Baker will be my late round QB  if moken installs an air raid scheme and Dorsey upgrades the pass catching group  or

 

IS DUKE THE RB to own for cheap?

[BMcP 8,109]

3 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

When three runs add around a full yard per carry and 3 TD, I think it's important to know.  

Agreed - that is a clear sign of an explosive runner.

[K197040 2,412]

23 hours ago, BMcP said:

Agreed - that is a clear sign of an explosive runner.

 

LOL.  Whatever.   I assume you'll be targeting the explosive Lamar Miller also.

[devaster 4,349]

7 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

LOL.  Whatever.   I assume you'll be targeting the explosive Lamar Miller also.

Comparing Chubb to Lamar Miller?

[BMcP 8,109]

11 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

LOL.  Whatever.   I assume you'll be targeting the explosive Lamar Miller also.

Good one!  LOL!  Unless I missed it, Miller never added “a full yard per carry and 3 TDs” to his stats off three carries.

Edited February 22, 2019 by BMcP

[bhawks489 3,669]

Miller hit a 97 yard run against the titans...

[psygolf 2,791]

On 2/21/2019 at 3:36 PM, K197040 said:

 

When three runs add around a full yard per carry and 3 TD, I think it's important to know.  

Yeah...just think what that ypc would’ve been if the endzone had not been in the way!

Lol

[psygolf 2,791]

On 2/20/2019 at 9:38 PM, dashoe said:

 

 

That was the point dude you stated his YPC like it measures that he is stud and highly effective runner;  YPC alone is a metric that doesnt tell you much so use metrics that tell you how effective he is as a runner and allow for better comparisons to his peers. You also dont need to have an equal number of carries to make comparisons you need a minimum number to be statistically significant which in this case is 100 carries.

Chubb:

DYAR = 80 #18

DVOA = 1%  #24

50% success rate rank #19

None of those make him a STUD

 

kerryon:

DYAR= 124 #14

DVOA= 17% #5

53% Success rate #12

 

Lindsay for a comp

DYAR = 201 #6

DVOA= 17%  #6

49% success rate # 22

 

Lindsay and kerryon  are much more STUDs than Chubb if you consider Chubb a stud but I dont  tag a player a stud just because I like him.

and for more context here is

Gurley:

DYAR= 367  #1

DVOA = 24%  #1

57% success rate #4

 

Again Chubb had a decent rookie year but he wasnt a STUD

 

DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. 

DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average running back in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense.

Success Rate. This number represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower DVOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more. 

*if you took the time to go back and look at the players that ranked high in those numbers in seasons past >>> you wouldn’t use those “advanced metrics” from that site to prove a FF point.

[dashoe 6,462]

3 minutes ago, psygolf said:

*if you took the time to go back and look at the players that ranked high in those numbers in seasons past >>> you wouldn’t use those “advanced metrics” from that site to prove a FF point.

 

The fact that you posted this tells me that you completely missed the progression and lesson so there is no need for me to respond beyond that.

Cheers! 

[psygolf 2,791]

3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

The fact that you posted this tells me that you completely missed the progression and lesson so there is no need for me to respond beyond that.

Cheers! 

Veterans here know that Football Outsiders have nice stats to look at...a nice look back, but nothing of use going forward for FF.

Cheers! 🍻

[dashoe 6,462]

3 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Veterans here know that Football Outsiders have nice stats to look at...a nice look back, but nothing of use going forward for FF.

Cheers! 🍻

and you keep proving that you are willfully unaware of the progression of the posting and the basis 

[psygolf 2,791]

31 minutes ago, dashoe said:

and you keep proving that you are willfully unaware of the progression of the posting and the basis 

You’re trying to use their numbers to back up your opinion of Chubb’s mediocrity - yes/no?

[bhawks489 3,669]

41 minutes ago, dashoe said:

and you keep proving that you are willfully unaware of the progression of the posting and the basis 

He also thinks that AB is best suited for a rebuilding team and not for one in a "win now" mode lol. Best to move on

[psygolf 2,791]

Ladies & Gents...I highly encourage you to visit the website below that publishes these “dvoa,” “dyar,” & “success rate” stats.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb2017

Look at the rbs that they rank at the top and decide for yourself if they have any value.