munde53

Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook

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14 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

You guys are missing the point here. No one is complaining about his great game. But you gotta look ahead and can’t ignore that ravens matchup. They could start off to a big lead and if Chubb doesn’t score early could be a long day for him. 

Everybody will start Nick Chubb next week. Take that to the bank. 

 

27 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

looking ahead to next week. Kitchens is a moron and with hunt , they could not play Chubb. The ravens are much improved since the last time they met and the browns keep getting worse

Last week LeVeon Bell had 87 rushing yards ... You have to believe Chubb will eat 

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Really happy and yes must start at home. Can only hope Ravens don't blow these guys out and he gets game flowed out. Obviously can't predict that and division games are extra spicy usually.

Thinking Ravens will be -5 favorites or so, so hoping browns keep it close. Chubb shoulda done so much more today too- they just can't commit to the run when it's working. Not drafting browns headache's next year if kitchens is back 

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37 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Hilliard has all but disappeared since hunt came back. Yes hunt has been the primary passing back but when they have used 2 RB sets it’s been primarily Chubb and hunt. I haven’t seen Hilliard out there in quite some time. Look at his snap counts passed few weeks. It’s been like 1-2 snaps a game from what I found. This week he was out there way more.

and when have the Browns been in a game where they couldnt keep up like against AZ? More than likely Hilliard is part of a hurry up personnel package that kitchens wanted to implement. 

Not sure what tea leaves you are trying to read here; if it's about protecting any player from injury as you are speculating then Chubb wouldnt be the priority. You would sit the QB Baker who had a recent hand injury and you would sit OBJ who as been battling some sort of groin or abdomen injury that needs offseason surgery. 

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11 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Everybody will start Nick Chubb next week. Take that to the bank. 

 

Last week LeVeon Bell had 87 rushing yards ... You have to believe Chubb will eat 

 

Comparing potential production to the Jets ravens game on a short week is bad process but of course you start Chubb because he is productive with his touches.

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Despite his deficiencies as a play-caller, one thing Kitchens has shown this year is that he will stock with the run even when they are losing.

 

The Ravens have given up a decent amount of production on the ground the second half of the year... even the Bengals and Texans got over 100 yards in blow out losses.

 

Division games are usually competitive, and the Browns showed earlier this season that they can have some success slowing down Lamar.  Yes, the Ravens are playing better now, but they’ve given up production in 5 of the last 6 games, and there’s no reason to think Chubb can’t make it happen as well.

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2 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:


148 yards and a TD is not elite? He had 3 catches for 21 yards... that’s pretty standard for most RBs.

 

We all know how Hunt is used, it’s not a surprise. People complaining in here are ridiculous. 

Just the people that lost that needed just a bit more ...

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I know he wrecked the Ravens last time, but I expect a dud this week. Don't see how you can bench him though unless you have a solid rb2 in a great matchup

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54 minutes ago, scheibler said:

I know he wrecked the Ravens last time, but I expect a dud this week. Don't see how you can bench him though unless you have a solid rb2 in a great matchup

 

If it's a blowout early 1st qtr expect to see a lot of Hunt as they play catch up and then maybe Kitchens will try to get back to the run with chubb in the 4th qtr.

Chubb had 3 targets in a Ariz game they were mostly trailing that turned into a blowout and their defense couldnt stop him on any of his touches . . . but he only had 3 targets and Hunt had 9

It's the coaching

Edited by dashoe

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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

If it's a blowout early 1st qtr expect to see a lot of Hunt as they play catch up and then maybe Kitchens will try to get back to the run with chubb in the 4th qtr.

Chubb had 3 targets in a Ariz game they were mostly trailing that turned into a blowout and their defense couldnt stop him on any of his touches . . . but he only had 3 targets and Hunt had 9

It's the coaching

I don’t get it. You say of course you start Chubb but now your saying expect a lot of hunt as they play catch-up lol. So why shouldn’t people bench Chubb if they have decent options?

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Just now, StevenSC400 said:

I don’t get it. You say of course you start Chubb but now your saying expect a lot of hunt as they play catch-up lol. So why shouldn’t people bench Chubb if they have decent options?

 

Easy answer, Chubb doesnt need a ton of touches to get 100yds. he needs at least 15 touches to get 100 yrds rushing. Any targets and td's he gets are a bonus at this point

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

Easy answer, Chubb doesnt need a ton of touches to get 100yds. he needs at least 15 touches to get 100 yrds rushing. Any targets and td's he gets are a bonus at this point

 

Chubb's also a lock for 15+ touches, every single week. He'll never go below 12. Just note Browns are huge underdogs, but can see Chubb with 80+ YFS and chance for TD...easy top-20 play. 

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Easy answer, Chubb doesnt need a ton of touches to get 100yds. he needs at least 15 touches to get 100 yrds rushing. Any targets and td's he gets are a bonus at this point

I don’t see why you think him getting 15 touches equals to 100 yards. I see a potential Steelers game repeat. Something like 16 for 58 no TDs.

Edited by StevenSC400

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4 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

I don’t see why you think him getting 15 touches equals to 100 yards. I see a potential Steelers game repeat. Something like 16 for 58 no TDs.

 

Sure u can pick the outlier to make your decisions and i will focus on the mean.

I don;t see many option that much better than Chubb. The browns for all of their problems can actually move the ball down the field. Their problems are getting into the endzone, execution mistakes, bad playcalling or keeping their momentum going in games. yet despite all of that they are able to move the ball with Chubb

Edited by dashoe

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Sure u can pick the outlier to make your decisions and i will focus on the mean.

I don;t see many option that much better than Chubb. The browns for all of their problems can actually move the ball down the field. Their problems are getting into the endzone, execution mistakes, bad playcalling or keeping their momentum going in games. yet despite all of that they are able to move the ball with Chubb

So for example AP this week has a great matchup vs the giants. I feel like most teams should try to get him in the line up. Then you got guys like AJ brown going off. So if you managed to pick him up last week and Chubb is your third RB which basically equals a flex play I don’t think it would be crazy to bench him for those guys. Or DeVante Parker lots of decent options out there late in the season that popped up. Again the last two is if you roll with 3 RBs which basically make Chubb a flex player this week.

Edited by StevenSC400

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11 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

So for example AP this week has a great matchup vs the giants. I feel like most teams should try to get him in the line up. Then you got guys like AJ brown going off. So if you managed to pick him up last week and Chubb is your third RB which basically equals a flex play I don’t think it would be crazy to bench him for those guys. Or DeVante Parker lots of decent options out there late in the season that popped up. Again the last two is if you roll with 3 RBs which basically make Chubb a flex player this week.

Pass the pipe plz

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8 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Pass the pipe plz

Hey you can follow these rankings every week which make no sense at all half the time. Or make your own decisions. Up to you. [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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The last 6 starting RB's versus Baltimore:

 

Week 10 - Joe Mixon - 30/114/0 + 2/37/0 (17.1 PPR)

Week 11 - Carlos Hyde - 9/65/1 + 0/0/0 (12.5 PPR)

Week 12 - Todd Gurley - 6/22/0 + 3/-3/0 (4.9 PPR) 

Week 13 - Raheem Mostert - 19/146/1 + 2/8/0 (23.4 PPR)

Week 14 - Devin Singletary - 17/89/0 + 6/29/0 (17.8 PPR)

Week 15 - Le'Veon Bell - 21/87/0 + 2/1/0 (10.8 PPR)

 

On the season, PPR RB12 has 191.6 points, meaning if an RB scores 13.685+ PPR points per week, they would be an RB1 on the season this year (assuming 12-team league).

On the season, PPR RB24 has 142.2 points, meaning if an RB scores 10.157+ PPR points per week, they would be an RB2 on the season this year (assuming 12-team league).

 

That means in the last 6 games against starting RB's, Baltimore has given up:

 

3 performances that would make RB1's 

2 performances that would make RB2's

1 performance that would be a clear bench

 

Interesting to note that during this stretch, they also faced zero RB's that are in the top-12 (RB1) on the season.

 

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15 hours ago, smash10033 said:

I needed this guy today !   Thank you for coming up Big !!!!     

 

Same here.

Special thanks to Mister Chubb in that losing effort, and despite the Kitchens Effect.

Thank you!

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3 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

The last 6 starting RB's versus Baltimore:

 

Week 10 - Joe Mixon - 30/114/0 + 2/37/0 (17.1 PPR)

Week 11 - Carlos Hyde - 9/65/1 + 0/0/0 (12.5 PPR)

Week 12 - Todd Gurley - 6/22/0 + 3/-3/0 (4.9 PPR) 

Week 13 - Raheem Mostert - 19/146/1 + 2/8/0 (23.4 PPR)

Week 14 - Devin Singletary - 17/89/0 + 6/29/0 (17.8 PPR)

Week 15 - Le'Veon Bell - 21/87/0 + 2/1/0 (10.8 PPR)

 

On the season, PPR RB12 has 191.6 points, meaning if an RB scores 13.685+ PPR points per week, they would be an RB1 on the season this year (assuming 12-team league).

On the season, PPR RB24 has 142.2 points, meaning if an RB scores 10.157+ PPR points per week, they would be an RB2 on the season this year (assuming 12-team league).

 

That means in the last 6 games against starting RB's, Baltimore has given up:

 

3 performances that would make RB1's 

2 performances that would make RB2's

1 performance that would be a clear bench

 

Interesting to note that during this stretch, they also faced zero RB's that are in the top-12 (RB1) on the season.

 

Thanks for the time to write this up. It is helpful when you look back at the numbers but your really selling it in full PPR settings. Standard for example the numbers look a lot different. Still not terrible but not great. And for full PPR purposes Chubb really doesn’t catch much.

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5 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Thanks for the time to write this up. It is helpful when you look back at the numbers but your really selling it in full PPR settings. Standard for example the numbers look a lot different. Still not terrible but not great. And for full PPR purposes Chubb really doesn’t catch much.

 

No problem! And yeah, Chubb likely won't make much noise in the catching front, seems like he's not used in that avenue much. 

 

If you switch to standard vs PPR:

 

Week 10 - Joe Mixon - 30/114/0 + 2/37/0 (12.1 STD)

Week 11 - Carlos Hyde - 9/65/1 + 0/0/0 (12.5 STD)

Week 12 - Todd Gurley - 6/22/0 + 3/-3/0 (1.9 STD) 

Week 13 - Raheem Mostert - 19/146/1 + 2/8/0 (21.4 STD)

Week 14 - Devin Singletary - 17/89/0 + 6/29/0 (11.8 STD)

Week 15 - Le'Veon Bell - 21/87/0 + 2/1/0 (8.8 STD)

 

STD RB12 is at 11.621 PPG

STD RB24 is at 8.40 PPG

 

Meaning in STD scoring they've given up:

4 RB1 performances

1 RB2 performance

1 terrible bench performance

 

In STD they've faced one top-12 RB in that stretch (ironically Gurley, who did the worst against them).

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5 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

 

No problem! And yeah, Chubb likely won't make much noise in the catching front, seems like he's not used in that avenue much. 

 

If you switch to standard vs PPR:

 

Week 10 - Joe Mixon - 30/114/0 + 2/37/0 (12.1 STD)

Week 11 - Carlos Hyde - 9/65/1 + 0/0/0 (12.5 STD)

Week 12 - Todd Gurley - 6/22/0 + 3/-3/0 (1.9 STD) 

Week 13 - Raheem Mostert - 19/146/1 + 2/8/0 (21.4 STD)

Week 14 - Devin Singletary - 17/89/0 + 6/29/0 (11.8 STD)

Week 15 - Le'Veon Bell - 21/87/0 + 2/1/0 (8.8 STD)

 

STD RB12 is at 11.621 PPG

STD RB24 is at 8.40 PPG

 

Meaning in STD scoring they've given up:

4 RB1 performances

1 RB2 performance

1 terrible bench performance

 

In STD they've faced one top-12 RB in that stretch (ironically Gurley, who did the worst against them).

Now look at the highs. Roughly around 12 points seems like the ceiling with Mostert being the only outlier who had a huge game. The low could look similar to what Gurley did. It’s a real dicey start. Again I’m not saying to bench him. Idk if I even will it’s gutsy call to make. But I was just curious to see if people are considering it. I am anyway. 

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a tale of two RBs, part deux ...

i've compared/contrasted these two before in this thread ... let's take a look/see:

 

in AP's last full season in Minny (2015), he led the leeg in rushing ... here were his full stats after sixteen games:

327/1485/4.5/11, 30/222/7.4/0

357 touches - 1,707 total yds - 11 TDs - 4.80 yds per touch. 

 

now, here's Chubbola after only fourteen games:

270/1408/5.2/8, 35/277/8.0/0

305 touches - 1,685 total yds - 8 TDs - 5.52 yds per touch. 

 

so Chubb needs only 88 yds rushing over the final 2 games to eclipse that mark ... and he's averaging roughly half a yard more per tote. 

he needs a scant 32 more total yards over the next two games  to eclipse AP's total yd mark. 

3 more TDs will equal the 2015 output of Peterson in that metric. 

 

i've said before that the one RB who profiles most favorably to prime AP is Chubb ... low passing game volume, moderate to good TD output ... similar styles in so many ways. 

 

so, in true "name brand" fashion, lemme ask ... were folks ever calling for sitting AP during the '15 season?

"ZOMG!!1!1!! LEEG LEADING RUSHER!!1!!1 YOU CAN'T BE SERIOUS!!!1!!1111!11! HE BE AP!!1!111!"

 

i'll hang up n' listen. 

☎️

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2 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

a tale of two RBs, part deux ...

i've compared/contrasted these two before in this thread ... let's take a look/see:

 

in AP's last full season in Minny (2015), he led the leeg in rushing ... here were his full stats after sixteen games:

327/1485/4.5/11, 30/222/7.4/0

357 touches - 1,707 total yds - 11 TDs - 4.80 yds per touch. 

 

now, here's Chubbola after only fourteen games:

270/1408/5.2/8, 35/277/8.0/0

305 touches - 1,685 total yds - 8 TDs - 5.52 yds per touch. 

 

so Chubb needs only 88 yds rushing over the final 2 games to eclipse that mark ... and he's averaging roughly half a yard more per tote. 

he needs a scant 32 more total yards over the next two games  to eclipse AP's total yd mark. 

3 more TDs will equal the 2015 output of Peterson in that metric. 

 

i've said before that the one RB who profiles most favorably to prime AP is Chubb ... low passing game volume, moderate to good TD output ... similar styles in so many ways. 

 

so, in true "name brand" fashion, lemme ask ... were folks ever calling for sitting AP during the '15 season?

"ZOMG!!1!1!! LEEG LEADING RUSHER!!1!!1 YOU CAN'T BE SERIOUS!!!1!!1111!11! HE BE AP!!1!111!"

 

i'll hang up n' listen. 

☎️

Yeah but AP didn’t disappear in games when the Vikings didn’t have a lead. Chubb is beasting yardage wise but it’s mind boggling how Hilliard was out there last night even in two RB sets. AP was a workhorse. He was on the field 99% of the time. That just isn’t the case with Chubb. 

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Just now, StevenSC400 said:

Yeah but AP didn’t disappear in games when the Vikings didn’t have a lead.

 

WHAAAA???!??,!?

the Vikings had to burn a 2nd rd draft pick on Gerhart because AP was a stooge in the passing game.

and that Vikings team was not exactly the '76 Stillers or the '84 Forty Niners .... they had a TON of holes to fill, yet they had to burn draft capital on a third down cat because AP never grasped the nuances of that aspect of the offense.

and he (AP) disappeared in 2 minute and hurry up and ketchup mode ... how many times did i go into Vikings game day threads and see "WHERE IS AP???!??!! WHY IS GEARHEAD OUT THERE??!?"

you are sadly mistaken on your statement.   waaayyy off. 

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