Fantasy Gooroo

Christian McCaffrey 2019 Outlook

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Looked exceptional this year with increased workload. PPR gold with few running backs outscoring him this season. Will the addition of new weapons deflate his numbers? Or can we expect more PPR magic in the mold of greats such as Marshall Faulk and Ladanian Tomlinson.

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I was skeptical on this guy going into the year, and he brought it.   With youth on his side, and a returning coaching staff, there's no reason he's not one of the first few RB's off the board in PPR leagues.     He proved he can be an elite rusher, which was my concern last year.   

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Feels like he will have a 4 year career or shorter with this usage. 

 

I love him but man I hope the Panthers dont run him out there for 90% of snaps and like 10 catches a game next year dude will break.

 

With that said, he is certainly a top 5 PPR RB selection, I personally would want someone with a bit more big-play/take it to the house potential but CMC has one of the highest floors of all the top 10 RBs which is why he should be selected top 5. 

Edited by Zak0221

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1 hour ago, Zak0221 said:

 

I love him but man I hope the Panthers dont run him out there for 90% of snaps and like 10 catches a game next year dude will break.

He had a 91% snap count this year and 20 touches a game (14.3 carries, 7 rec over the first 15 games).

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3 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

He had a 91% snap count this year and 20 touches a game (14.3 carries, 7 rec over the first 15 games).

 

Right, he won't survive long playing that much at his size granted he is built like an armadillo tank but I fear for his wear and tear.  He should be a Panther staple on offense for years to come not just the next two seasons. 

Edited by Zak0221

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7 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Right, he won't survive long playing that much at his size granted he is built like an armadillo tank but I fear for his wear and tear.  He should be a Panther staple on offense for years to come not just the next two seasons. 

5 11 and 205 is perfectly fine for the kind of usage he gets.

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From week 9 CMC was the leading scorer in fantasy and no one was even close to him in standard or PPR. He plays down the stretch and doesn’t take plays off.

 

First overall pick.

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4 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

5 11 and 205 is perfectly fine for the kind of usage he gets.

Exactly, and I think he proved he can handle 300 touches. They didn't go (too much) over that, so I'm not that worried.

 

CMC in PPR formats (even .5 PPR) should be a lock for the top-4, with Gurley/Barkley/Zeke (Kamara on 5). Maybe you'd have a small question mark if Cam turns out to need major surgery (and even then), but otherwise he should be good to go.

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The concern was him holding up with a heavy workload, and while he passed that test with flying colors, I think long-term it's still a legitimate concern. That said, he was just too good/productive to not go in the top 5 next year.

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I just hate having to pay up for 100 catches to happen again.  If he 'only' gets like 60-70 catches that is a huge drop off and could have major implications on your fantasy team's expected point totals.  My fear is probably about 40 of his catches this year were due to Cam's sudden inability to throw more than 10 yards and a healthy Cam will cause CMC to be more of a 5-7 catch a game guy than a 7-10 catch a game guy.  

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8 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

I just hate having to pay up for 100 catches to happen again.  If he 'only' gets like 60-70 catches that is a huge drop off and could have major implications on your fantasy team's expected point totals.  My fear is probably about 40 of his catches this year were due to Cam's sudden inability to throw more than 10 yards and a healthy Cam will cause CMC to be more of a 5-7 catch a game guy than a 7-10 catch a game guy.  

Even if you were to take away 3 catches per game and 30 yards from those catches he would still have finished second overall over the second half of the season.

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Even if you were to take away 3 catches per game and 30 yards from those catches he would still have finished second overall over the second half of the season.

 

That's not the point I am making.  Basically if you didn't know what occurred this season and simply looked at his overall stats, someone might figure he could catch even more passes next year, who knows, it was his second year and he is on the rise.  However educated fantasy owners should understand why he had such a huge spike in his receptions and factor in the circumstances when projecting for 2019.  I am on the side that he hits closer to 70 catches next year rather than 100 again so if that moves his ranking from like 5th overall to like 8th overall than its certainly something to keep in mind.  

 

He will be a fantastic top ten selection in 2019 but someone might draft him slightly higher than he really should be based on him repeating 100 catches again. 

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5 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

That's not the point I am making.  Basically if you didn't know what occurred this season and simply looked at his overall stats, someone might figure he could catch even more passes next year, who knows, it was his second year and he is on the rise.  However educated fantasy owners should understand why he had such a huge spike in his receptions and factor in the circumstances when projecting for 2019.  I am on the side that he hits closer to 70 catches next year rather than 100 again so if that moves his ranking from like 5th overall to like 8th overall than its certainly something to keep in mind.  

 

He will be a fantastic top ten selection in 2019 but someone might draft him slightly higher than he really should be based on him repeating 100 catches again. 

You missed my point though.

 

Even if he were to regress by 3 catches and the 8 YPC that come with those catches he would still have been the #1 RB the second half of the season in standard and #2 RB in PPR. This isn't including having to factor in the improvement you speak of from Cam which would give him even more scoring opportunities and better run flow. 

 

So even if you factor in the regression you claim he can still very well finish first overall next year as he did exactly that over the second half of the season this year with that regression factored in (that is how much better he was than everyone else). That's why I have no problem taking him first overall.

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He had 80 catches his rookie year while splitting with Jonathan Stewart.  

 

I think 80-100 is his realistic range of receptions, given there aren't any drastic changes to the offense.  And if you told me right now that CMC had a range of outcomes from RB1-RB8 (as his floor), I would draft him in a heart beat.  Drafting a guy in the top 4 who finishes at 8 isn't going to cripple a team.  

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

From week 9 CMC was the leading scorer in fantasy and no one was even close to him in standard or PPR. He plays down the stretch and doesn’t take plays off.

 

First overall pick.

 

 

You have to factor in Newton’s bum shoulder.   Seemed like a lot of dump offs and the team wasn’t winning games doing that.  Yeah it’s great for fantasy but not good for real life.   

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5 minutes ago, poofinger said:

 

 

You have to factor in Newton’s bum shoulder.   Seemed like a lot of dump offs and the team wasn’t winning games doing that.  Yeah it’s great for fantasy but not good for real life.   

 

1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

You missed my point though.

 

Even if he were to regress by 3 catches and the 8 YPC that come with those catches he would still have been the #1 RB the second half of the season in standard and #2 RB in PPR. This isn't including having to factor in the improvement you speak of from Cam which would give him even more scoring opportunities and better run flow. 

 

So even if you factor in the regression you claim he can still very well finish first overall next year as he did exactly that over the second half of the season this year with that regression factored in (that is how much better he was than everyone else). That's why I have no problem taking him first overall.

 

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Has CMC had any major injuries in the past?

 

Seems like people are worried about him holding up, however he's a good size for what he got this year and I can't remember him taking a ton of damage in college. 

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16 minutes ago, afl5013 said:

Has CMC had any major injuries in the past?

 

Seems like people are worried about him holding up, however he's a good size for what he got this year and I can't remember him taking a ton of damage in college. 

 

 

He’s white?

 

ba-dum-tshh

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I'll eat my crow on this one. I remember thinking one of my league mates was crazy drafting him around 7 or 8 in the 1st round. Definitely paid off, even in standard. He scored quite a bit this season with Cam not vulturing as often. Probably a product of the OC.

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18 hours ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Looked exceptional this year with increased workload. PPR gold with few running backs outscoring him this season. Will the addition of new weapons deflate his numbers? Or can we expect more PPR magic in the mold of greats such as Marshall Faulk and Ladanian Tomlinson.

 

In my PPR league he finished 2nd in scoring only to Barkley (.3 points). If CMC had more than 5 touches in week 17 he would have finished the #1 RB. 

 

I will be a little hesitant to draft him in the top 7 or so next year. I love the usage although long term it could hurt him. The problem I see is Cam hurt his shoulder midseason. That’s when CMC really started turning it on. He only had 1 TD through week 7. It seemed like Cam’s injury prevented him from getting those carries inside the 5-10 yard line so they went to CMC. CMC proved he can handle the GL work but if Cam is healthy I’m sure he will vulture some of those TDs again. 

Then again, maybe the Panthers will keep Cam out of those situations to keep him healthy.

 

I love CMC but I worry with a healthy Cam the TDs will dip.  

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I'd figure he and barkley would be 1A/1B in next season's drafts. 

 

With the way Cam is regressing physically, he'd be looking for more dump offs and not gonna jump for TDs at the goal line.

 

I'd peg him as a cyborg version of westbrook, woodhead, sproles and he seems like he has 3 to 5 years of elite level play in him.

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