joebaker23

James Conner 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, eg4190 said:

 

That is insane. The experts are generally too in love with the "don't chase stats, chase volume" maxim. Conner still has an elite touch floor, he's just not doing anything with those touches and he's in an offense that can't stay on the field or score points. Reminds me of how the experts kept ranking 2017 Doug Martin in the top-20 every week while he was averaging under 3ypc week-in-week-out and scoring a TD once in a blue moon.

Volume isn't everything. Unless Rudolph, JuJu + 1 other pass catcher all seriously improve, Conner is just going to put up more lines like he has been. You can't count on PI calls in the end zone every game.

It has nothing to do with volume vs. talent, expert sites are just conservative in moving players too much in their rankings. Probably too conservative, whereas, say, Rotoworld posters are generally too quick to spend 8th round picks on Darwin Thompson. Conner isn't a Top 8 back though, obviously.

Edited by miasma16
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Where's his dynasty value right now?  I guess there are a lot of unknowns, but it could mean he is a bargain to acquire right now. 

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1 hour ago, Trifecta said:

Where's his dynasty value right now?  I guess there are a lot of unknowns, but it could mean he is a bargain to acquire right now. 

TBH I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole in dynasty. His value is higher in redraft because they don't have anyone better. That could (and likely will) change at the draft next year. I don't see Conner being a long-term productive back in this league. Last year we saw a product of a great offense and Oline who in reality is a pretty mediocre talent. 

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On 9/25/2019 at 6:56 PM, miasma16 said:

It has nothing to do with volume vs. talent, expert sites are just conservative in moving players too much in their rankings. Probably too conservative, whereas, say, Rotoworld posters are generally too quick to spend 8th round picks on Darwin Thompson. Conner isn't a Top 8 back though, obviously.

Obviously he isn't but such is life in the NFL. We acknowledge the challenges and we are gonna head back into the lab and work on developing some splash plays.

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On 9/26/2019 at 6:40 PM, BGDDYKWL said:

TBH I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole in dynasty. His value is higher in redraft because they don't have anyone better. That could (and likely will) change at the draft next year. I don't see Conner being a long-term productive back in this league. Last year we saw a product of a great offense and Oline who in reality is a pretty mediocre talent. 

Not so sure they replace him in the draft next year. He has proven to be serviceable and due to trades they only have a 2nd and a 4th. With them being win-now I don’t see them using their only decent draft capital to replace a competent starter. FA maybe? But I’m not sure who could be out there, I think he’s safe for at least his rookie contract which spans this year and next.

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36 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Good game from a fantasy standpoint but Samuels getting the same number of touches as him is a little concerning. 

This. Sucks that we can't even enjoy the good game. Samuels is gonna essentially have equal value moving forward. And they don't get Cincy every week so my guess is Samuels actually outscores him ROS due to game flow. 

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He will be a hard one to sell even after that performance. Very concerning time-share. I feel he’s almost not worth selling because people are quite low on him you’ll get nothing decent in return and may as well roll the dice and ride it out.

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Idk- Samuels had zero touches week before--which was dumb, but Conner is the clear lead guy yet imo. Samuels is very much a glorified 'joker' back, not a feature guy you want pounding the rock between the tackles 15+ times. This felt very game plan specific --usage wise for Samuels. Have to see how it trends though.

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If you can sell, now is the time.  I don't think this backfield is going to be something you want to have significant capital invested in.  And Conner comes with the downside of a potential looming timeshare... and he's already been injured once this season. 

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12 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Idk- Samuels had zero touches week before--which was dumb, but Conner is the clear lead guy yet imo. Samuels is very much a glorified 'joker' back, not a feature guy you want pounding the rock between the tackles 15+ times. This felt very game plan specific --usage wise for Samuels. Have to see how it trends though.

 

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I think Samuels touches were somewhat gameplan specific, but I think he’ll be involved moving forward. I see it being a 60/40 split Conner/Samuels moving forward. That should still afford Conner 15-20 touches a week as the Steelers will want to run with Rudolph in there and Rudolph seems to really like his dump offs to RB’s. One of the other takeaways I had from last nights game is the o-line finally looked like the top 5 unit I was expecting it to be coming into the season. We’ll see if that continues or if it was just because they were playing Cincinnati. 

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2 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Ankle injury, and being 'evaluated'...ugh

I don't understand... didn't he come back in the game and look just fine after leaving briefly to get checked out?  I have Samuels either way, but didn't know there was any concern...

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2 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

If you can sell, now is the time.  I don't think this backfield is going to be something you want to have significant capital invested in.  And Conner comes with the downside of a potential looming timeshare... and he's already been injured once this season. 

Who are you looking to target though? 

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2 hours ago, myersisu said:

I don't understand... didn't he come back in the game and look just fine after leaving briefly to get checked out?  I have Samuels either way, but didn't know there was any concern...

Adrenaline will keep physical pain at bay for several hours, also known as the "Superman effect". When the adrenaline drops and then swelling kicks in things can get much worse.

We see this all the time in football.

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13 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Adrenaline will keep physical pain at bay for several hours, also known as the "Superman effect". When the adrenaline drops and then swelling kicks in things can get much worse.

We see this all the time in football.

Bradley Chubb just finished a game on a torn ACL

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On 9/25/2019 at 6:56 PM, miasma16 said:

It has nothing to do with volume vs. talent, expert sites are just conservative in moving players too much in their rankings. Probably too conservative, whereas, say, Rotoworld posters are generally too quick to spend 8th round picks on Darwin Thompson. Conner isn't a Top 8 back though, obviously.

 

A good point.  Also “expert sites” are often competing to see who has the most accurate rankings.  Even if they think a player will blow up in a certain week they may be a bit more conservative in their prediction so they’re not too far from what everyone else says. 

 

When it comes to these forums, people are more willing to go out on a limb because that’s a winning formula in fantasy drafts. 

 

The value I find here are in the “Darwin Thompson” type player threads.  Generally these forums will put guys on the radar before experts do, which is of value to me.   

 

 

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1 hour ago, Chwf3rd said:

What are some good trade targets for him?

 

What do we think about Ingram?

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1 minute ago, liyy1 said:

 

What do we think about Ingram?

 

Thats my target now.  Trying to get Ingram + for Conner but would settle for a straight swap

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Finished the game and looked absolutely fine. Very worrisome that the words used were "being evaluated". I feel like you'd generally just say we expect him to be fine, or he is fine. And the nightmare continues...

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