joebaker23

James Conner 2019 Outlook

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I don't have a plethora of options to use over him if he's playing, which he will. 

As long as he's starting he's a start imo. He's THE GL back. He also doesn't automatically tip defenses that a pass or some a**-hattery like the vaunted "wildcat" will be in play since he has receiving skills as well.

BAL through 4 games has been mediocre stopping the run - the matchup is not intimidating imo.

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7 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

I don't have a plethora of options to use over him if he's playing, which he will. 

As long as he's starting he's a start imo. He's THE GL back. He also doesn't automatically tip defenses that a pass or some a**-hattery like the vaunted "wildcat" will be in play since he has receiving skills as well.

BAL through 4 games has been mediocre stopping the run - the matchup is not intimidating imo.

Unfortunately I'm in the same boat, and my guess is many are since he was the first RB drafted on anyone's team who owns him. That said, I could see Samuels eating into his workload, and while he is the GL back, he's not if they run the wildcat. 

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19 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

BAL through 4 games has been mediocre stopping the run

 

BAL has not been mediocre against the run in any of their games this season. They've been alternately incredible and horrendous.  I don't think you can average that out.  It's a weird data set.

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Just now, Nap Time said:

 

BAL has not been mediocre against the run in any of their games this season. They've been alternately incredible and horrendous.  I don't think you can average that out.  It's a weird data set.

Well sure but just statistically speaking was what I meant. I was actually being kind statistically, as they're somehow the 6th worst run D in the league right now. 

I backed it off to characterizing them as 'mediocre' though in regards to your point. Very weird.

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15 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

 

BAL has not been mediocre against the run in any of their games this season. They've been alternately incredible and horrendous.  I don't think you can average that out.  It's a weird data set.

 

me, you and any other 9 numb nutz up on this bored woulda been "incredible" vs Miami/Arizona ... once the RatBirds stepped up in competition (Chiefs/Browns) they were exposed as frauds. 

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45 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

me, you and any other 9 numb nutz up on this bored woulda been "incredible" vs Miami/Arizona ... once the RatBirds stepped up in competition (Chiefs/Browns) they were exposed as frauds. 

So do you think conner and pittsburgh do similar or fall into arizona / miami side? 

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2 minutes ago, LacesOut said:

So do you think conner and pittsburgh do similar or fall into arizona / miami side? 

 

Miami/'Zona rushed for 41 yards combined in those first two games. 

KC/Cleveland did 141/196 

 

ergo, Baltimore is giving up 168.5 per vs teams who can actually run the foosball (sidenote: KC accomplished that with their best o-lineman on the sidelines injured, while the weakness of Cleveland's offense is their shoddy line play, but ... both gashed B'awlmore).

i'd say Stillers have a good chance to impose their will on the ground, yes ... dunno how healthy Conner is, but - the RatBirds are not to be feared against the run. 

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2 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

Well sure but just statistically speaking was what I meant. I was actually being kind statistically, as they're somehow the 6th worst run D in the league right now. 

I backed it off to characterizing them as 'mediocre' though in regards to your point. Very weird.

 

OK, we have some clarity now:

Quote

Defensive tackle Brandon Williams was out last week with a knee injury, which allowed Nick Chubb to go on a rampage. It’s not considered too serious, so he should be back on the field this week.

 

Brandon Williams always been the lynchpin of their run defense.  Also, Chubb has elite talent whereas Conner is merely good.  So, I'm tossing that game out.  And KC ran effectively because the Ravens were on their heels due to Mahomes.

My analysis: the Ravens will stuff the run and the gimmick plays and dare Rudolph to beat them.  Conner is not 100% healthy.  I'm sitting him for Montgomery.  Good luck to y'all and see you next week against the Chargers.

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11 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

My analysis: the Ravens will stuff the run and the gimmick plays and dare Rudolph to beat them.  Conner is not 100% healthy.  I'm sitting him for Montgomery.  Good luck to y'all and see you next week against the Chargers.

I'm absolutely not sitting Conner because if the Ravens don't do that, he has a way bigger upside than anyone on my bench. But I've thought about that too, and think it's pretty likely that that's what the Ravens do.

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Stuffing the run won’t affect Conner’s numbers much — he hasn’t rushed for more than 43 yards this season. We’re starting him for the high PPR floor created by Mason’s constant checkdowns. The Ravens may be able to force a lot of punts, but they can’t take away those points for catching the ball near the line of scrimmage.

I’m also choosing to believe that the silly game plan vs. the Bengals was specific to that opponent, because they knew going in that they’d be powerless to stop it, and that they won’t roll out anything that ridiculous against a real NFL defense.

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6 hours ago, eg4190 said:

Stuffing the run won’t affect Conner’s numbers much — he hasn’t rushed for more than 43 yards this season. We’re starting him for the high PPR floor created by Mason’s constant checkdowns. The Ravens may be able to force a lot of punts, but they can’t take away those points for catching the ball near the line of scrimmage.

I’m also choosing to believe that the silly game plan vs. the Bengals was specific to that opponent, because they knew going in that they’d be powerless to stop it, and that they won’t roll out anything that ridiculous against a real NFL defense.

What's your point? Sounds like you're assuming that Conner ROS will resemble what we've seen in 4 games this season, as opposed to last year. You think he's going to get more receiving yards than rushing yards? Put your money where your mouth is. If the Ravens shut down the run, yeah, actually, it will affect Conner. 

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The Ravens' D isn't what it once was but they're not morons. They'll make sure to stop the run and the wildcat and make Rudolph beat them. I'm not saying Conner can't have a productive day, but I'd be shocked if he rushed for more than 60-70. 

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4 hours ago, miasma16 said:

What's your point? Sounds like you're assuming that Conner ROS will resemble what we've seen in 4 games this season, as opposed to last year. You think he's going to get more receiving yards than rushing yards? Put your money where your mouth is. If the Ravens shut down the run, yeah, actually, it will affect Conner. 


I’m viewing Conner as a high-floor bust who I unfortunately have to start in my RB2 slot every week because I don’t have better options. He’s looking like he may not have a 100 yard rushing game all season, and his value is only going to saved by short passes from Rudolph. That will probably be enough for him to finish in the top-24, but it won’t be anywhere close to last year.

I don’t think he’ll have more receiving yards than rushing yards on the season, but my prediction is about 40 of each against the Ravens. As always, I hope I’m wrong about that!

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Rush yards dont matter as much in ppr. He may get just 30 rush yards and 30 receiving yards, but if he catches 4 or 5 balls to do it, it is 10 or 11 points. A td and it is 17...which will be a top 10 back for the week.

Rush yards in ppr just dont matter as much for backs who catch balls. So you play him if he is playing.  

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This will be the most interesting game to watch for me this week from a fantasy standpoint. I don’t think anyone outside of the Steelers coaching staff has a great feel for what this offense is going to look like. 

 

Even with the threat of a timeshare I don’t see many scenarios, outside of the Steelers getting blown out, where Conner doesn’t get 15+ touches. With Rudolph in there it seems like there will be enough carries and dump offs to go around. 

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TD saved his week. Are we right to think that the Steelers are going to need to lean on this guy with an undrafted QB likely to be their starter on Sunday? 

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22 minutes ago, Edgeraid said:

TD saved his week. Are we right to think that the Steelers are going to need to lean on this guy with an undrafted QB likely to be their starter on Sunday? 

I would think so, but who knows

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52 minutes ago, Edgeraid said:

TD saved his week. Are we right to think that the Steelers are going to need to lean on this guy with an undrafted QB likely to be their starter on Sunday? 

 

They can try, but the Chargers will know that’s the plan too. The only silver lining is that the schedule looks pretty nice for Conner the second half of the season starting with the Dolphins coming out of the bye. 

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39 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

 

They can try, but the Chargers will know that’s the plan too. The only silver lining is that the schedule looks pretty nice for Conner the second half of the season starting with the Dolphins coming out of the bye. 

Given the Charges recent display against Denver they're not really the Monsters of the Midway. I'd feel ok starting Conner against them. 

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1 hour ago, Edgeraid said:

TD saved his week. Are we right to think that the Steelers are going to need to lean on this guy with an undrafted QB likely to be their starter on Sunday? 

Or the could get to the 1 and let Samuels run for -5 yards, or they could let Samuels throw an INT. At this point I really have no idea what they’re doing in Pittsburgh.

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3 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Or the could get to the 1 and let Samuels run for -5 yards, or they could let Samuels throw an INT. At this point I really have no idea what they’re doing in Pittsburgh.

 

Neither do they.  They should've pulled the plug on this season, instead they gave up their 2020 first round pick, which is looking like a top 12 selection in this lost season.

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1 hour ago, Edgeraid said:

TD saved his week. Are we right to think that the Steelers are going to need to lean on this guy with an undrafted QB likely to be their starter on Sunday? 

My takeaway is your first sentence. Yes he'll likely get decent volume, but he's a TD dependent very low end RB2 moving forward. We're gonna need turnovers followed by PIs in the end zone for this guy to be productive. 

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5 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

 

Neither do they.  They should've pulled the plug on this season, instead they gave up their 2020 first round pick, which is looking like a top 12 selection in this lost season.

They used it on Fitzpatrick. 

May end up being a really high pick, but if you gave them the option of drafting whatever lotto ticket is available at, say, 5 - vs trading it on draft day for Fitzpatrick, I don't know that doing so would be a bad choice.

They got a quality player in his 2nd year.  It wasn't necessarily a "win now" move.  Regardless of how this season turns out, I think they're going to be ok looking at tape of minkah while the Dolphins are on the clock with the Steelers pick.

*of course, had they known they'd get to their 3rd string QB who they signed off the street with two thirds of the season left, thus would end up with a pick high enough to take Delpit, safety out of LSU, then they might not make that deal

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