Gohawks

Alvin Kamara 2019 Outlook

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One of the most intriguing players going into 2019.

 

If Ingram leaves, would anyone take him first overall? It's not really a stretch. After all, he was the RB1 overall without Ingram through 4 weeks this year and it is not that close. 

 

However, if Ingram were to resign that is when things get really interesting. I just cannot see myself taking him. Yes, he still finished 5th overall but man is it brutally frustrating. Watching your first round pick split is not for me. In the 11 games with Ingram, Kamara had just as much games with under 50% snaps as games with over 65% (2). 

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PPR has a pretty ironclad top 6, imo ..

 

Gurley

Saquon

Zeke/CMC

CMC/Zeke

MGIII

Nuk

 

...then it gets interesting enough to consider Kamara. 

 

sans Ingram it's a no-brainer there - a steal, even ... but, if Ingram stays, it's a calculated risk which could yield yuuuge dividends.  

 

would be hard pressed to pull the trigger on anyone else after the six i mentioned are gone ... 

 

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Even if Ingram stays in Nola, I would rather have him over MG3 but certainly not before Gurley, Barkley, Zeke, CMC.  

 

Gordon is very TD dependent for his draft ranking bc he has shown a tendency to miss games.  So if he doesn't score a bunch of TDs when he DOES play then you are kinda left with more of a back end RB1 like DJ was this year.  Kamara in year three could potentially be even better than he has been thus far, or he could plateau but he is somewhat worth that gamble of an early pick if you miss out on the other 4 stud RB1s. 

 

If Ingram is no longer in Nola I could see AK taken 3rd or even 2nd if Barkley goes 1.  

Edited by Zak0221

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I think Kamara's 2018 went just about how many expected.   Less efficiency (it was off the damn charts in 2017) but more carries to help him out.    I see no reason why he's not a top 5 pick, and i dont fault anyone taking him anywhere in that range, including # 1

 

Personally, i dont fear Ingram returning, nor do i assume Ingram leaving opens up Kamara even more.  I predict that his 2018 usage mirrors 2019,  200 carries or so, 80 catches, and he's the goal line back.   The Saints have destroyed the league since Kamara cut loose, and I expect someone else, Ingram or a new RB, to get 150 carries or so to keep Alvin humming at full impact.    

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29 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I think Kamara's 2018 went just about how many expected.   Less efficiency (it was off the damn charts in 2017) but more carries to help him out.    I see no reason why he's not a top 5 pick, and i dont fault anyone taking him anywhere in that range, including # 1

 

Personally, i dont fear Ingram returning, nor do i assume Ingram leaving opens up Kamara even more.  I predict that his 2018 usage mirrors 2019,  200 carries or so, 80 catches, and he's the goal line back.   The Saints have destroyed the league since Kamara cut loose, and I expect someone else, Ingram or a new RB, to get 150 carries or so to keep Alvin humming at full impact.    

If Ingram stays i’d absolutely fault someone for taking him #1 over guys like CMC, Barkley, and Gurley.

Edited by Gohawks

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The chances of Ingram staying are slim and none, and slim just left town.

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15 hours ago, Gohawks said:

If Ingram stays i’d absolutely fault someone for taking him #1 over guys like CMC, Barkley, and Gurley.

 

 I think a way to look at it is CMC+Barkley were on very bad football teams that were always playing from behind and benefited from the volume. Both of those teams did not make the playoffs  so you have to assume that offseason they are seriously going to evaluate what went wrong and make changes. I don't see the Giants being as bad again. The panthers with a gimpy cam could again see cmc benefiting with volume.  Gurley is simply a proven workhorse of consistency on the Rams powerhouse offense.

Kamara is really the most interesting player because unlike the other rb's he is not volume dependent and he is on an offense run by arguably the best offensive minded coach in the NFL. Reid may have the biggest play sheet but payton just puts up the numbers year in and out.

kamara produces as if he is an every down rb like cmc+gurley+barkley, u just have to trust Sean is going to keep his efficiency and production high

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3 hours ago, petekrum said:

The chances of Ingram staying are slim and none, and slim just left town.

 

I certainly would not bet on Ingram returning, but I think its wrong to just assume he's 100% gone.     There's two keys here to NO bringing him back.   

 

1- The fact that its plainly obvious that their offense hums with the RB usage they currently have.   This also helps their defense, they can control the clock.    While they can likely replace Ingram with someone else, one has to think it makes sense to bring him back if the price is right.   He's the known commodity.  Which leads to..........

 

2- The RB free agent market is a cruel place.  How many backs are truly going to get top dollar?  Bell should get it.  Coleman's a couple of years younger than Ingram.   Maybe a guy like CJ Anderson or TJ Yeldon is more desirable to teams.  Who really knows?   If the Saints offer something modest, maybe even less than he gets even in a cold market, but its "home", maybe he sticks around. 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, petekrum said:

The chances of Ingram staying are slim and none, and slim just left town.

Yeah that is my stance too...but I think Ingram is gonna find a tepid market at best. That is just the way it works nowadays. He's nearly 30, and I know his usage isn't overly worrisome, but people seem to forget his PED suspension. I have to believe that is gonna hurt his guarantees--whatever they would have been. Plus nobody has seen him succeed outside of Bama/Nola. He's great for what the saints do, but very replaceable (obv as most RBs are). Him and Kamara are really tight, so I think when he finds a cold market he might wanna do a team-friendly deal to stay 'home'...and it really does not impact the fantasy value of AK a ton imo.

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21 hours ago, Gohawks said:

One of the most intriguing players going into 2019.

 

If Ingram leaves, would anyone take him first overall? It's not really a stretch. After all, he was the RB1 overall without Ingram through 4 weeks this year and it is not that close. 

 

However, if Ingram were to resign that is when things get really interesting. I just cannot see myself taking him. Yes, he still finished 5th overall but man is it brutally frustrating. Watching your first round pick split is not for me. In the 11 games with Ingram, Kamara had just as much games with under 50% snaps as games with over 65% (2). 

 

Kamara doesnt need a high snap count percentage to produce. Similar to how Tyreek Hill doesnt need a lot of targets.

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22 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

PPR has a pretty ironclad top 6, imo ..

 

Gurley

Saquon

Zeke/CMC

CMC/Zeke

MGIII

Nuk

 

...then it gets interesting enough to consider Kamara. 

 

sans Ingram it's a no-brainer there - a steal, even ... but, if Ingram stays, it's a calculated risk which could yield yuuuge dividends.  

 

would be hard pressed to pull the trigger on anyone else after the six i mentioned are gone ... 

 

 

I don't agree that that list is "ironclad".   Most of the experts I've hard have Kamara in that top six.   And many have Adams over Nuk.   Not that I agree.    Personally, I'd take Nuk over MGIII and probably over CMC and Kamara.    But anyway, I don't think your top 6 is in line with the consensus experts at this point.

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17 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

I don't agree that that list is "ironclad".   Most of the experts I've hard have Kamara in that top six.   And many have Adams over Nuk.   Not that I agree.    Personally, I'd take Nuk over MGIII and probably over CMC and Kamara.    But anyway, I don't think your top 6 is in line with the consensus experts at this point.

 

 

Adams is the #1 wr  in my view because his floor is the highest and it's predictable week to week as long as Rodgers is throwing him the ball. Some people prefer the high week winning upside of 40-50pt games but in season long I need that  predictable 15-20.  Adams doesnt have  week where he busts like most wr's. 

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Just now, dashoe said:

 

 

Adams is the #1 wr  in my view because his floor is the highest and it's predictable week to week as long as Rodgers is throwing him the ball. Some people prefer the high week winning upside of 40-50pt games but in season long I need that  predictable 15-20.  Adams doesnt have  week where he busts like most wr's. 

 

Agree that's a valid point and to why the above poster's list isn't close to being "ironclad".    

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2 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

I'd love to have 5th pick and take any one of Gurley/Barkley/zeke/Kamara/CMC

I'd put Gordon in the top 6 (and would take him over any receiver). He elevated this year and would have been up there if not for the injury. 

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4 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

I'd love to have 5th pick and take any one of Gurley/Barkley/zeke/Kamara/CMC

 

Sorry...the "ironclad" list says you can't take Kamara at 5.

Edited by K197040
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1 minute ago, oliminator123 said:

I'd put Gordon in the top 6 (and would take him over any receiver). He elevated this year and would have been up there if not for the injury. 

 

this.  he elevated ypc to 5.1 (from 3.9 in '17), and yds per catch to 9.3 (from 8.2)  

 

the recency bias on MGIII is hysterical, but, what can ya do

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Just now, K197040 said:

 

Sorry...the "ironclad" list says you can't take Kamra at 5.

It wasn't in any particular order ;)

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Just now, bhawks489 said:

It wasn't in any particular order ;)

 

Correct.  But the "ironclad" list of the top 6 picks doesn't include Kamara.

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It goes 

Saquon

Gurley 

CMC

Kamara (if no Ingram) 

Zeke

In no particular order 

 

 

thats just what it is.  If I can’t get Saquon I’m going Kamara with second overall

Edited by NyMetsfan5
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Right now I have Kamara at 5 after the top 4 RB's.  But that could def change.  No chance I take a WR over any of the top 5 RB"s.

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This guy, if he can stay uninjured, has a skill set to rival the top backs of all time. We may be looking at a legend like Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk. To not accept this is to turn a blind eye to generational talent. 

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On 1/10/2019 at 7:12 PM, PizzaBeerFF said:

This guy, if he can stay uninjured, has a skill set to rival the top backs of all time. We may be looking at a legend like Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk. To not accept this is to turn a blind eye to generational talent. 

Was that last sentence directed to the Saints coaching staff? 

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2 hours ago, psygolf said:

Was that last sentence directed to the Saints coaching staff? 

Wait... You’re telling me that Ingram and Hill aren’t as good as Kamara?!?

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On 1/4/2019 at 7:10 AM, Evincar said:

 

Kamara doesnt need a high snap count percentage to produce. Similar to how Tyreek Hill doesnt need a lot of targets.

 

He was the 11th most targeted receiver with 137 targets though :P 

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