Gohawks

Alvin Kamara 2019 Outlook

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59 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Sure but you kind of expect a big drop off Kamara in standard no?  Since a lot of, if not most of his production comes from the receiving game.  

  

Some drop off, yes. But you're talking a swing of 5-7 points and prior to this year Kamara was a touchdown machine. He was always an RB1 in both PPR and Standard. This year he's an RB1 in PPR and an RB2 in Standard. 

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Kamara doesn't get "fed."  We've seen his entire time in the league, he plays the 1A to someone's 1B (Ingram or Murray) and he does his damage with the 15-20 opportunities he gets per game.  Volume has NEVER been Kamara's MO.  It's the idea that he plays in one of the league's best offenses, gets plenty involved in the passing game, and has plenty of TD opportunities.

Again, the oldest cliche in fantasy - TDs are flukey! The TDs just haven't been there this year.  Still the RB6 in points per game!

I can't wait to draft Kamara at a discount next year.

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It really could be that the saints are saving Kamara for the playoffs. No need to risk injury when they are rolling to a 9-2 record.

Edited by bhawks489
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2019 - 19.33 touches per game, 105 yards per game, .22 TDs per game.

2018 - 18.33 touches per game, 106 yards per game, 1.2 TDs per game. 

Everything from this year is the same except for the TDs. And Murray is basically doing what Ingram did in years past.

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

Kamara doesn't get "fed."  We've seen his entire time in the league, he plays the 1A to someone's 1B (Ingram or Murray) and he does his damage with the 15-20 opportunities he gets per game.  Volume has NEVER been Kamara's MO.  It's the idea that he plays in one of the league's best offenses, gets plenty involved in the passing game, and has plenty of TD opportunities.

Again, the oldest cliche in fantasy - TDs are flukey! The TDs just haven't been there this year.  Still the RB6 in points per game!

I can't wait to draft Kamara at a discount next year.

Man you never lied. I can just imagine him dropping to the 2nd round and guys like Godwin jumping to 1st rd. That would be awesome. The only thing I dont like was that he got hurt but what can you do about that.  High floor player

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

It really could be that the saints are saving Kamara for the playoffs. No need to risk injury when they are rolling to a 9-2 record.

And it could also be that they let Murray wear down the defense in the first half.   One of Payton's comments at halftime yesterday was along the lines of watch out for Kamara the second half.  

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5 hours ago, Islanderman said:

His usage is way down.  They better do the opposite, get this guy going.

Not really. 

2017: 16 games, 7.5 rush, 5.1 rec, 97.1 yards, 0.8 tds

2018: 15 games, 12.9 rush, 5.4 rec, 106.1 yards, 1.2 tds

2019: 9 games, 12.7 rush, 6.7 rec, 105.2 yards, 0.2 tds

Looking at pro football reference, 2 numbers stand out: his tds are way down, and his yards/reception are down (10.2 and 8.8 vs 7.0 this year).

Right now, he's a reliable 18 touches, 100 total yards every game.  If he goes back to scoring at closer to his previous career rate, we're all good

 

Edit: let's compare ppg for perspective: std, .5ppr, 1ppr

2017: 14.51, 17.06, 19.51

2018: 17.81, 20.51, 23.21

2019: 11.72, 15.07, 18.42

Edited by SadFaceHappy
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3 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Kamara doesn't get "fed."  We've seen his entire time in the league, he plays the 1A to someone's 1B (Ingram or Murray) and he does his damage with the 15-20 opportunities he gets per game.  Volume has NEVER been Kamara's MO.  It's the idea that he plays in one of the league's best offenses, gets plenty involved in the passing game, and has plenty of TD opportunities.

Again, the oldest cliche in fantasy - TDs are flukey! The TDs just haven't been there this year.  Still the RB6 in points per game!

I can't wait to draft Kamara at a discount next year.

 

3 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

Some drop off, yes. But you're talking a swing of 5-7 points and prior to this year Kamara was a touchdown machine. He was always an RB1 in both PPR and Standard. This year he's an RB1 in PPR and an RB2 in Standard. 

 

2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

It really could be that the saints are saving Kamara for the playoffs. No need to risk injury when they are rolling to a 9-2 record.

 

It's all about the TDs (and his 2 missed games).  As you can see in my post above, his per game touches and yards are up slightly, and his receptions are up by about 1 per game, though his yards per rec are down.

But he went from scoring a TD every game (31 in 31 games 2017-2018), to getting a TD once every 4 games (2 in 9 games this year).  

While he's had a handful of TDs called back on penalty (I can think of 2 or 3 just off the top of my head), there's too big a discrepancy between his previous scoring rate and that of this year to not expect at least some positive regression over the next few weeks.

The Saints are scoring less as a team.  I'm not trying to spend the time to break it down by TDs at the moment, so here's their overall per game scoring (excluding those Kamara didn't play in):

2017: 28 ppg (AK41: 4.9, 17.5%)

2018: 33.4 ppg (AK41: 7.2, 21.5%)

2019: 22.8 ppg (AK41: 1.3, 5.8%)

It's weird.

Interestingly, the Saints scored 3 in week 17 last year, when Kamara (and Brees) didn't play vs Carolina.  They've scored 36 and 31 against Chicago and Arizona with Kamara out (and Brees out against the Bears).

Not sure what to make of it all.  Maybe they are better off giving Murray 30 touches/game, but 2 games is too small a sample size to draw any conclusions - and I kinda doubt it. 

I don't think Kamara ends the year with just the 2 TDs he has now.  There are 5 games left, and it looks like the Saints will need to play every game straight up for seeding in the NFC.  I don't necessarily expect it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish the year closer to his previous 1 TD/game career rate (even taking this year and playoffs into account, Kamara's career TD rate is still 0.79/game) to finish 2019 with 5-8 total TDs

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Well put @SadFaceHappy

 

Kamara had 18 TDs last season and if anyone expected that to repeat you're out of your mind.  Granted, I'm sure we all expected more than 2 TDs at this point, but given the few hiccups pointed out this season (his injury, Brees' injury) that probably took away a few TDs he would otherwise have by now.  If he scores 5-6 TDs the rest of the way and ends the season with 7-8 total it'll be lower than what we would expect back in August, but not a complete dud by any means.  But again, because of the injuries to him and his QB, you would assume a lower number than his usual output.  

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7 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Well put @SadFaceHappy

 

Kamara had 18 TDs last season and if anyone expected that to repeat you're out of your mind.  Granted, I'm sure we all expected more than 2 TDs at this point, but given the few hiccups pointed out this season (his injury, Brees' injury) that probably took away a few TDs he would otherwise have by now.  If he scores 5-6 TDs the rest of the way and ends the season with 7-8 total it'll be lower than what we would expect back in August, but not a complete dud by any means.  But again, because of the injuries to him and his QB, you would assume a lower number than his usual output.  

This guy is probably going to ball out next year after the trash he has produced this year in terms of TDs.  Waste of a number 3 pick

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10 hours ago, GarrettHasTheClap said:

Man you never lied. I can just imagine him dropping to the 2nd round and guys like Godwin jumping to 1st rd. That would be awesome. The only thing I dont like was that he got hurt but what can you do about that.  High floor player

Godwin in the 1st round??  Gag me

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There have been bumps in the road this year, but Kamara >>>> Murray.  He has fresh legs and is looking quick. Kamara will RB1 overall ROS without a doubt. 30+ coming this week and likely only 4 or so for Murray. Minimum 30+ each week ROS coming. 

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On 11/26/2019 at 9:04 AM, pepper11 said:

There have been bumps in the road this year, but Kamara >>>> Murray.  He has fresh legs and is looking quick. Kamara will RB1 overall ROS without a doubt. 30+ coming this week and likely only 4 or so for Murray. Minimum 30+ each week ROS coming. 

 

Did your account get hacked??

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This dude looks horrible this year. Used to be so explosive. Very strange, I wonder if his ankle is still messed up. Not the same player at all. 

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28 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

This dude looks horrible this year. Used to be so explosive. Very strange, I wonder if his ankle is still messed up. Not the same player at all. 

Blueprint is out on him

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This is getting annoying.

That said, i hope he explodes in the fantasy playoffs.

Goes from 31 TDS in first 31 games to 2 all season, and both coming in Week 3 at Seattle.

Strange season. Hopefully the RB equivalent of a "Julio" eruption is coming. I guess in other words... a CMC game haha.

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Could end up costly. But his 13 yard run to Falcons 3 yard line could easily be a score. But worries are there.

Edited by Mr_Baller
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1 minute ago, Mr_Baller said:

Could end up costly. But his 13 yard run to Falcons 3 yard line could easily be a score. But worries are there.

(Ron Burgundy voice) "I saw that"

CMC would have wiggled in lol.

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1 hour ago, Golden Spikes said:

Remember when there was an argument to draft James White no 1 overall and we were happy he fell to no 3

 

Kamara has been a major disappointment but it could be worse. You could have Barkley.

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