thebadferret

David Johnson 2019 Outlook

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44 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I feel like everyone in this thread is talking like DJ is a threat for 1k rushing and receiving and I'm just having a hard time getting there. I do expect more receptions than last year though. 

He had 50 last year so any more than that is fine with me.  That's kind of how KK's offense works.  Lots of throws to the RB.  Kyler being a threat as a rusher also helps David Johnson.

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DJ might even have a boost in receptions, but I wouldn't expect 1000 rushing yards out of him.this season. 

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5 hours ago, Jags02 said:

DJ might even have a boost in receptions, but I wouldn't expect 1000 rushing yards out of him.this season. 

I expect nothing less than 1000 rushing yards

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10 hours ago, Jags02 said:

DJ might even have a boost in receptions, but I wouldn't expect 1000 rushing yards out of him.this season. 

 

If he stays healthy???

Crazy talk unless you are predicting injury.

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5 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

If he stays healthy???

Crazy talk unless you are predicting injury.

 

Why? He didn't do it last year, and in a pass-happy shotgun offense I'm expecting less carries this year.

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1 hour ago, Jags02 said:

 

Why? He didn't do it last year, and in a pass-happy shotgun offense I'm expecting less carries this year.

Agreed. DJs problems last season were certainly tied to the Cards ineptitude. This year's version could easily be worse. 

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1 hour ago, Jags02 said:

 

Why? He didn't do it last year, and in a pass-happy shotgun offense I'm expecting less carries this year.

No, the offense should be better therefore they will run more total plays and be more effective.  He won't average 3.6 ypc in this offense with the added players around him.

 

Kliff Kingsbury has also said he wants to be fast pace and run a large number of offensive plays per game.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

No, the offense should be better therefore they will run more total plays and be more effective.  He won't average 3.6 ypc in this offense with the added players around him.

 

Kliff Kingsbury has also said he wants to be fast pace and run a large number of offensive plays per game.

 

Yea he said he wants to set the record for most plays in a season. I remember chip kelly kept blabbing on about #of plays... just saying.. I'd be shocked if DJ wasnt atleast close to 1000. Maybe 925 yards rushing and 700 recieving. 

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7 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

I'd be shocked if DJ wasnt atleast close to 1000. Maybe 925 yards rushing and 700 recieving. 

Exactly, does it really matter if he breaks 1000 rushing if he still has over 1500 total yards?  lol

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7 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Exactly, does it really matter if he breaks 1000 rushing if he still has over 1500 total yards?  lol

 

Interestingly, I have DJ at right about 1500 yards total, but for me that makes him my RB #11. I have 10 RBs projected to do better than that.

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1 minute ago, Jags02 said:

 

Interestingly, I have DJ at right about 1500 yards total, but for me that makes him my RB #11. I have 10 RBs projected to do better than that.

So what do you have Derrick Henry stated at if you have him above Johnson?  1600 rushing yards?

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Just now, RMJ_12 said:

So what do you have Derrick Henry stated at if you have him above Johnson?  1600 rushing yards?

 

I have Henry leading the AFC in rushing with 1400 yards plus another 200 yards receiving. ... so 1600 total yards.

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21 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Yea he said he wants to set the record for most plays in a season. I remember chip kelly kept blabbing on about #of plays... just saying.. I'd be shocked if DJ wasnt atleast close to 1000. Maybe 925 yards rushing and 700 recieving. 

 

1,625 total yards...the 700 receiving yards would come on at least 60 receptions (if not more), correct? In his three full seasons, DJ has scored 12, 20, 10 TDs, so let's go with the low number and give him 10 total TDs this year. In half-PPR that puts him at 252.5 points (not counting fumbles, 2pt conversions, etc), which would have been good enough to tie him for 6th with Conner last year. It would have been enough to get him to 282.5 in PPR, which would have put him by himself at 6th overall. 

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2 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

I have Henry leading the AFC in rushing with 1400 yards plus another 200 yards receiving. ... so 1600 total yards.

 

I feel like rushing totals have reall fell off. Remember the early 2000s when league leading rusher would have 1800 yards. 

How many more TDs will henry have that DJ?

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7 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

Interestingly, I have DJ at right about 1500 yards total, but for me that makes him my RB #11. I have 10 RBs projected to do better than that.

 

How many total receptions and how many total TDs? Judging by past posts, I'm guessing you're going with 900 rushing and 600 receiving? 

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5 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

1,625 total yards...the 700 receiving yards would come on at least 60 receptions (if not more), correct? In his three full seasons, DJ has scored 12, 20, 10 TDs, so let's go with the low number and give him 10 total TDs this year. In half-PPR that puts him at 252.5 points (not counting fumbles, 2pt conversions, etc), which would have been good enough to tie him for 6th with Conner last year. It would have been enough to get him to 282.5 in PPR, which would have put him by himself at 6th overall. 

 

Remember connor and gordon both missed 3 games. I know injuries happen and it's not DJs fault they got hurt but points per game that's closer to RB8-ish

4 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

How many total receptions and how many total TDs? Judging by past posts, I'm guessing you're going with 900 rushing and 600 receiving? 

 

70 to 80 receptions sounds fair to me but I'm just spitballing. Probably 10 to 12 TDs. Hard to say with a new system and all. Am I the only one worried kyler might start stealing some goalline TDs with his scrabbling?

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15 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

I have Henry leading the AFC in rushing with 1400 yards plus another 200 yards receiving. ... so 1600 total yards.

Idk man, I think the Titans added Adam Humphries and AJ Brown for a reason.

 

Delanie back as well.

Edited by RMJ_12

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Idk man, I think the Titans added Adam Humphries and AJ Brown for a reason.

 

Sure, because their prior receiving core was absolute dog crap. They're going to run. Listen to Vrabel.

That said, let's take this back to DJ.

Also, keep in mind that this is not an ascending player we're talking about. DJ's stats were especially bad over the last six week last year when he never once topped 3.7 ypc.

Edited by Jags02

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4 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

Also, keep in mind that this is not an ascending player. His stats were especially bad over the last six week last year when he never once topped 3.7 ypc.

 

With the worst oline in football. How many did they have injured? 6? I dont think a single starter made it the whole season 

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5 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

Sure, because their prior receiving core was absolute dog crap. They're going to run. Listen to Vrabel.

The Titans ran last year.  Meanwhile the Cardinals ran the 29th most last season yet somehow you think they will run less this season?

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4 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Remember connor and gordon both missed 3 games. I know injuries happen and it's not DJs fault they got hurt but points per game that's closer to RB8-ish

 

70 to 80 receptions sounds fair to me but I'm just spitballing. Probably 10 to 12 TDs. Hard to say with a new system and all. Am I the only one worried kyler might start stealing some goalline TDs with his scrabbling?

 

No, you're not the only one. That's why I said give him his full-season low of 10 TDs. 

 

2 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

Sure, because their prior receiving core was absolute dog crap. They're going to run. Listen to Vrabel.

 

I have learned to ignore what coaches say in the offseason. Vrabel saying they're going to run doesn't matter to me. I see a 2nd round pick at WR added to a 1st round WR, and joined by a solid slot WR. Even though Henry might be the bellcow, the evidence says the Titans are also going to throw the football. 

But maybe I'm just tainted as a Saints fan...Payton is the king of misdirection via coach-speak. Lol. 

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4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

The Titans ran last year.  Meanwhile the Cardinals ran the 29th most last season yet somehow you think they will run less this season?

 

Card RBs averaged a shade over 20 carries per game last year. Hard to see that going lower this year...but this is Kool Kliff we're talking about. So who knows lol? 

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6 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I have learned to ignore what coaches say in the offseason. Vrabel saying they're going to run doesn't matter to me. I see a 2nd round pick at WR added to a 1st round WR, and joined by a solid slot WR. Even though Henry might be the bellcow, the evidence says the Titans are also going to throw the football. 

But maybe I'm just tainted as a Saints fan...Payton is the king of misdirection via coach-speak. Lol. 

3

 

As a Jags fan I tend to have a sense what the TItans are thinking. We play them twice a year. It's not just Vrabel making it more than obvious. It's clearly the mind-set of that team. If you know the Titans. You know they plan to run and play defense. It's who they are, and Henry can friggin run. 

As for DJ, there's not much to like about any RB playing in a shotgun system.. .and forget about his ypc being so great in the shotgun... RB ypcs are generally great in the shotgun as defenses plan on you passing... but when you play strictly shotgun and have DJ, teams are going to account for DJ.  It's not a good situation. He'll get some action, but he's no longer a top 10 fantasy RB in my mind.

Edited by Jags02

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4 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

As for DJ, there's not much to like about any RB playing in a shotgun system.. .and forget about his ypc being so great in the shotgun... RB ypcs are generally great in the shotgun as defenses plan on you passing... but when you play strictly shotgun and have DJ, teams are going to account for DJ.  It's not a good situation. He'll get some action, but he's no longer a top 10 fantasy RB. 

@Dreams And Dwightmares told me to be nicer, but none of this makes any sense whatsoever.

Edited by RMJ_12
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Remind me of the shotgun spread offenses over the past several years that had a top 10 ranked RB.

Edited by Jags02

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